=== Vargas at ProBallNW ===

Jon with one of his patented graphics.  :golfclap:

PBNW uses the data to draw a rock-solid conclusion -- the velo drop coincided with a drop in arm slot.  Both associated with fatigue.  (The drop in arm slot is like not stepping into a jumper in basketball.)

A super catch that hasn't been linked elsewhere.  As Vargas cynics, we'll cheerfully admit that this crack assessment breathes fresh oxygen into the fire for Vargas' fans.

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=== Mariner Central ===

 I/O:  Discussing the fact that Bedard "feels like he never had surgery." 

CRUNCH:  In retrospect, it should have occurred to Dr. D what Bedard's July 2009 implied.  Alas, it never did occur.

Bedard struck out 25 men in 17 July innings (!!) and, in fact, finished the season with a 2.82 ERA in the American League.

We all sort of shook our heads to knock the cobwebs out at the cognitive dissonance, and moved on to talking about Jason Bay.  In retro, we should have realized that this meant that Bedard's shoulder probably wasn't all that torn up, now was it.

It's fine pitching through pain, and we have no doubt that Bedard was in pain that would have had most grown men weeping on the bench.  But if the muscles are gone, the lever doesn't pull.  That's all.

................

This is one problem with us 'net rats discussing tears and surgeries.  A 15% tear is one thing and a 60% tear a different thing.  But do we treat them differently?  We just go on analyzing "hey, these eight rotator cuffs here, two guys came back and six didn't"...

It's a little like saying, 8 guys got in motorcycle crashes, six died, two were pretty much fine.  I heard your brother was in a crash... the doctor says he'll be fine, but look at the odds.  :- )

.................

MC says March 23 for his first bullpen?   Wow, so he's three weeks behind everybody else.  The AL West better make hay while it can.

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=== Lookout Landing ===

I liked Sully's take on the spring training chin music, that Lee might be the first pitcher we've had in a long time with a mean streak.

I'm not buying Lee's suggestion that he just happened to miss up-and-in, to the very batter that he had an argument with the inning before.  Nope huh-uh.

There came a time when the umps couldn't catch the spitballers with evidence, so they just said "if the ball moves like a spitter, it is one."  That will be a rule, too:  if you accidentally hit a batter in the head, who just tripped you the last inning, then don't spit down my neck and tell me it's raining."

The last "mean" pitcher the Seattle Mariners had, was Randy Johnson before he hit J.T. Snow in the head.  It's an incredibly improbable run of nice guys we've had out there... well, Jamie Moyer, despite appearances, could get pretty Baaad out there.

This may be a good time to bring up Lee's postseason record:  4-0, 1.56, forty innings, 33/6 control, one big gaudy ring.

...............

Erik Bedard is also a guy who gets red ears when threatened, as opposed to getting frightened when he's threatened.

Get the Mariners into a 7-gamer with Felix, Lee, and Bedard 1-2-3 and you're going to hear another postseason ballclub get very, very quiet in the pre-series quotes game.

.................

It's not a mirror image, but when I look at Cliff Lee I think of Lefty Grove.  And twenty other of those 4% bodyfat lefties from the 1910's and 1920's.  Tall, angular, chiseled, if he warn't a ballplayer he'd a knocked over stagecoaches.  Cliff Lee would gain weight if he lived in the Great Depression.

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=== Pro Ball NW again ===

With an analysis of the new Jarrod Washburn rumors.  Conor finds the indecision annoying, and doesn't see a lot of difference between Washburn and the in-house guys now.  Jon's a bit more pro-Washburn than that.

Good stuff.

I'm not Washburn's biggest fan, but I keep thinking about that stat:  13 of Wash's 20 starts with the M's were lockdowns.  0 or 1 runs.

I'm a little more worried about the 3-4-5 than most are.  As Bill James notes, 200 innings of average is a little harder to come by than we think. The difference between a hardened 200-IP vet, and a fringe guy out of AAA, can sometimes be bigger than the difference between average and All-Star...

But maybe Jack and Wok have built a Doc Brown machine that makes average pitchers out of Dachschunds.

Blengino has said, the 2009 administration had an easy job. Fill holes with decent players. 

 

BABVA,

Dr D