Lance Berkman

Jon with a suggestion deserving of its own thread...

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I/O: A better target for Jose Lopez (than San Diego) might be Houston, with Lance Berkman being the prize. Berkman's value isn't near Gonzo's, so Lopez could definitely take up the bulk of the value going their way, and Lopez is a great fit for their ballpark and they really need a 2B or a 3B for next year. Having him for only 2 years shouldn't be as big a deal for them because they always think they're contending.

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CRUNCH: Berkman gets $14.5m this year with a $15m option for next -- beyond that, if Berkman were in Seattle, you'd think he'd get less than that (at ages 36 forward).

If the M's were in on Bay at all, you'd think the $15m range would be logical for them -- Berkman is the LH* OBP guy that Bay isn't.

That's assuming that all of these pieces (Felix, Lee, Berkman, maybe Bedard) can be crammed into a Stars & Scrubs budget. You'd be talking about the M's increasing payroll generally, but the M's franchise has the capability to do that and then some. It's a question of selling the ownership committee that you're talking about a return to glory -- always uncomfortable for execs to ask for more money -- but the sales job wouldn't be hard. Berkman, Lee, and Bedard would in fact return the M's to glory.

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CRUNCH: Berkman, at 33-34, is still getting 7-8 runs per 27 outs, based on .300/.400/???. His homers are tumbling, 45 to 34 to 29 to 25, but he hit 7 last September and, actually, Berkman's PX has been sky-high. 163 in 2008 and 153 in 2009.

So at 34 years of age, a lefty star with a great EYE, the arc going forward is no problem for the mainframe.

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CRUNCH: No idea whether Berkman's available -- I know doodly about the NL -- but if so, he certainly makes as much sense as Carlos Pena or Prince Fielder.

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CRUNCH: I'm sort of bemused that the crack analysts go "mmeeehhhh" at the idea of Jose Lopez in San Diego. The Padres are going to want name recognition coming back, to assuage their fans. Their biggest hole is at 2B -- precisely where the M's last huge trade chip plays. And the reaction is that, well, Lopez isn't very appealing to somebody on a budget?

Could very well be I'm missing something there. But if the M's deal for Gonzalez and Lopez is included, I'm gonna laugh. :- )

In any case, if a Lopez-plus/Berkman deal were feasible, I'd be all over it. I'd rather have Lance Berkman than Jason Bay or Carlos Pena.

Cheers,
Dr D

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Lance Berkman

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Minute Maid Park Dimensions

Left Field - 315 feet (96 m)
Left-Center - 362 feet (110 m)
Left-Center (deep) - 404 feet (123 m)
Center Field - 436 feet (133 m)
Right-Center - 373 feet (114 m)
Right Field - 326 feet (99 m)

Lopez hits almost all of his home runs to straight away left field, 315 feet is pretty friendly and that would probably help Lopez hit 30 home runs a year in Houston which would go a long way towards appeasing the fans in Houston.

there was a good article on his power at USSMariner
http://ussmariner.com/2009/08/20/lopezs-power/

I'll do you one

I'll do you one better

http://www.proballnw.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/jose-lopez-at-minute...

Lopez could turn into a star with Houston. Some M's fans would see it as Seattle bailing too early without thinking context, I'm sure.

Considering the way the wind

Considering the way the wind plays in Safeco Lopez long flyballs would go even further in Houston.

If theres a situation where Lopez could hit 30 HRs+ and become a mini-impact player, that would be it.

Lopez would definetly be a

Lopez would definetly be a great fit for the Astros.

I don't know if I'd trade them straight-up though.. The 'stros would need to eat some of that salary.

In general I'm not in favor of giving up top specs for a 1B given how loaded the FA class is next season. Berkman himself is a FA next year if the Astros don't pick up his $15mil option.

Pena as a salary dump however, could be interesting..

What's the difference? Pena

What's the difference? Pena is a free agent too.

I think Berkman's stock is

I think Berkman's stock is higher (without being a significantly better player - close to a push, maybe 0-5 runs better assuming both are healthy) and hes also making more money.

I'd be ok with either as mid-season acquisition, I just wouldn't give up any actual talent for them (maybe a C prospect and both teams treating it as mostly a salary dump).

Trading Lopez now for Berkman would open up a hole at 2B until the '10 offseason.

It's a deal

Lopez and ? for Berkman. Or would the $/WAR savings make it a pretty even swap in the eyes of us 'net rats? :- )

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Not sure what you mean about the hole at 2B, champ. Figgins at 2B, Tui or Hannahan at 3B, right?

I wouldn't trade Lopez for

I wouldn't trade Lopez for Berkman.

Looking closer Pena is pretty much every bit as good, younger, cheaper, and will likely cost less to acquire and almost certainly far less to extend.

2007-2009:

Pena - 935 OPS

Berkman - 932 OPS

Naturally Berkman has the OBP advantage so his offense has been slightly more valuable but this doesn't get into the league switch (hitters on average lose around 5 runs), the park advantage Berkman has, or Pena's BABIP last year. Overall offensively you can consider them basically a push.

Defensively they are about the same - Pena rates higher by most metrics though. Pena GDPs about 4-5 times less per year (worth about 2 runs). I'm too lazy to look at their baserunning numbers right now..

For whatever reason Carlos Pena is really underrated. I think it may be due to the fact that hes hit for really low averages the past couple seasons and strikes a ton in general. He also didn't become an elite hitter until 2007.