Q.  How about Branyan, who is 4th from the bottom of James' entire list?

A.   James' system doesn't know as much about Branyan as you do; don't be afraid to use intuition to override a simple automated result.

James' system tells us this, no more and no less.  If you take all the players in history who:

1. At 32-35, and being slow players, 
2. With bad EYE ratios, as Branyan's was (58/149),
3. Suddenly had RBI + R that were faarrrrr more than they ever had before,
4. With spikes in OPS+,

Then you've got a group of players who are among the least-likely to IMPROVE the next year, as you could find.

This makes sense, and I'm sure it's true.   Take all the slow 33-year-olds with bad EYEs who suddenly had career years -- and you're going to get very few 34-year-olds who got better the year after.

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Q.  So if you were Branyan's agent, how would you meet an argument from James' system?

A.  That James' system is generalized.  And that Russell Branyan is an a-typical ballplayer.

OK, fine.  I agree.  34-year-old players, slow, who strike out, don't usually follow up "career years" well.  As a group, that's true.  Move on.

..........

It's now up to our intuition to NOW weigh in the question of, "Is Russell Branyan an exception?"

As his agent, I'd ask, "Well, what about the fact that Branyan has always been a part-time player, until last year?"

"How was he supposed to hit even up to his own ability when he was never allowed to get into a day-to-day groove?  What if it's just recently that he's gotten enough AB's to develop against LHP's?"

If Branyan were a career bench hitter who watched from the bench, and then showed his stuff at 33-35 like Roy Hobbs, that would be cool -- but it would also make him the kind of "unique" player who beats 10:1 odds in James' system.

Some players beat the odds -- 10%, 20%, whatever.  Will Branyan be that 1-in-10?  You can judge that as well as anyone.

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Q.  And as management, how would you reply?

A.  As much as I like Branyan, don't forget that James' system is warning us against an injury year, too.

Slow players don't age well, and strikeout players don't age well.  Branyan had a terrible second half, even per the simple BB/K criteria.

I (Jack Zduriencik) am not saying Russell can't play.  But you have to acknowledge my risk here.  I've GOT to be allowed to factor in the chance that he won't help me much in 2010.

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Q.  What is SSI's guess about Branyan?  That James SS Index is catastrophic on him.

A.  I think James' system is mostly saying he won't do better than in 2009.   But I think that Branyan's own track record shows you that he's going to get his dingers and his free passes.

Branyan's earning $100,000 per game when he's on the field.  There's a lot of margin for error here.  If he's in the same ballpark as 2009, he could do both:  lose 25 OPS points, make James right, and yet hit me 35 home runs.

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Q.  Would PECOTA get these two players right on the UP/DWN call?

A.  Sure.  They're extreme outliers.  Any two systems are going to agree on the easiest 20% at each end of the continuum.

It's where the two systems -- PECOTA and James' SS Index -- disagree, that you'll have fun, and really learn something.  And guess which one will be my own default radar gun?  :- )

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Q.  And Ichiro?  He's a catastrophe on the index, too.

A.  Ichiro isn't going to get better than in 2009.  :- )  He was perfect as is.

Credit to James' system, again, for identifying the fact that Ichiro (though a speed player) was totally max'ed in 2009.

Ichiro's efficiency was pedal-to-the-metal the whole year.  If he drops off by 5%, 10% and gives us another HOF year, I'm good.

Cheers,

Dr D