Enri with a fair question in the 14-In-A-Row comments:

.

=== Q ===

Generally, I'm entirely with you, Doc, on the value of Erikkkk. I still fantasize about Felix-Erik winning postseason series for us this year.

But in all fairness, isn't it time for you to own up to the fact that Bedard is more fragile than average. Your long time contention that he pitches if it matters, and babies himself only if the season is lost, seems to have been disproven by the timing of his latest trip to the DL.

How would you know you were wrong on Bedard's health forecast?

.

=== A ===

The way I would know I was wrong would be this:

If a noted orthopedic surgeon ran a series of non-invasive tests and pronounced that Bedard's arm was showing significant wear-and-tear.

.

=== Q Back Atcha ===

How would we know if you were worrying too much?  ;- )   Might I propose, the best self-check would be:  if a 21st-century surgeon examined his arm and pronounced him fit?

Present company excepted -- we're not getting on Enri, who was the only guy to phrase his concerns in a scientific paradigm --

Cyber-Seattle seems to put little value or confidence in the input of the experts on the matter.   When it comes to Richie Sexson's shoulder, or Erik Bedard's arm, or Jeff Clement's knees, here's what we talk about:

1) What kind of injury was it and do we suspect that injury heals easily

2) Has the athlete shown us 100 straight full-power games since the injury

3) What happened to other athletes, in 1992, who had injuries to the same parts of their bodies

4) Anything other than Dr. Lewis Yocum's findings

..................

I'm not trying to be cute here.  :- ) I think the right way to forecast health is to ask the doctors, not the sabermetricians.  The doctors stand in examination rooms with THAT VERY PATIENT and examine HIS VERY TISSUES. 

We sabermetricians sit behind our monitors and review outcomes for small groups of men we've never met.

I'll guarantee you that a real doctor would WITHHOLD OPINION on any athlete that he had not examined. 

..................

Do you remember the flame war over the health of Richie Sexson's shoulder?  Dr. D could convince exactly NOBODY to listen to the doctors and the Mariners, who put Sexson's contract 100% contingent on a perfect bill of health from the doctors.   No offense -- you know we're TIC :- ) -- but AFTER the physical, the entire realm of the alphanumeric knights were like "If he comes down to ST and belts the ball around, we'll feel a little better about maybe his lasting a year."

ML franchises play with big money, folks.  And this is the 21st century.  Before a guy like Sexson or Bedard gets the big bucks, the surgeons know EXACTLY what is inside his skin.

No, the result of a 5-hour physical is not a guarantee.  But it's better than three sentences in a Shandler Forecaster.

.

=== Babying Himself in 2009 ===

Another fair question:  "Dr. D predicted that Bedard would suck it up better, if the games mattered more.  Why then the DL this year?"

Answer:  Bedard HAS sucked it up in 2009.  He just had surgery on his shoulder. He answered the bell in April.  The mid-summer setback was legitimate and not a sign that he is not tough.

IN CONTEXT, Bedard HAS been tough about last winter's shoulder surgery, HAS been tough about getting back onto the field.

.

=== Ferraris and Civics Dept. ===

Erik Bedard IS fragile.  He reminds me of Butch Henry or David Wells:  he's always tweaking something other than his arm (though this one did happen to be a minor issue on his arm).   You're not going to get 220 innings out of him.

But on the other hand, that's not my test for a pitcher's right to wear the war paint of honor.  I accept the Don Gulletts and Pedro Martinezes and Bret Saberhagens and David Cones who have to be used judiciously.  A lot of World Series have been won by elite talents who were familiar with the training table:  Jose Rijo, Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett (soon), David Wells, Chris Carpenter, etc.

Since 1972, I've seen a whale of a lot of teams put up with Chris Carpenter injury woes ... only to see him heal up for October and then fire a 3-hit shutout to win the World Series.

MY goal is to WIN PLAYOFF GAMES, not to win 88 games and offer a nice family night at the ballpark.  (The 88 wins and nice nights come automatically with the winning-playoff-games part.)

I think that hunger for playoff wins, as opposed to VORP/$ efficiency, would increase oour tolerance for a Ferrari's maintenance issues.  We'll see where Capt Jack and Wok are on this question.

....................

You sign Erik Bedard, you're going to have two DL trips a year.  You're going to have to accept 175 innings a year -- and accept his four wins in October, if you can get him there.

But let's take comfort.  If the guys worrying aren't the doctors, why should we?

Cheers,

Jeff