Just got a copy of HQ under the tree today. Bet you pokeys wish you had wives who gave you Baseball Forecaster for Christmas. :- )
(You can order yours here. No, we don't have embedded ad links at SSI - just fair play for excerpting a bit of Ron's shtick.)
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=== HQ Riff ===
0-4-.221 in 122 AB at SEA. Power skills were nowhere to be found in majors (34 PX), but MLE's suggest there's some pop in his bat. Speed skills are good, OBP is not. Has potential, will need some time to reach it.
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=== SSI Mixing Board ===
In Shandler-speak, he is ranging across a variety of skills that refer to the 5x5 do-everything roto player ... AVG, SB, HR, etc., and showing interest in all of them.
Shandler sees Michael Saunders' power do a bug-on-a-windshield act in the major leagues, as well as a weak EYE, and comes up with ... overmatched, not ready.
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=== SSI Mosh ===
I don't remember anybody in Seattle taking this Zen-like position: Saunders will be good, but he won't be good in 2010.
Now that you mention it, this seems painfully obvious, considering (1) Saunders' background and (2) his funky swing. The same verdict applies to Jeff Clement -- he'll be real good, but down the road.
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This simple assessment, also reconciles both Cool Papa's take and Capt Jack's take.
Cool Papa is thinking Beltran-like numbers for Saunders at some point ... Jack seems uninterested. But perhaps that merely represents the fact that Zduriencik is playing a lot more for 2010 than we even give him credit for? And that the tools scouts saw something we didn't: that it's going to be ugly for Michael Saunders in 2010?
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If the breadth and depth of the talent pyramid were the priority, you'd just put Saunders in at LF -- hey, the guy plays great defense. Even if he doesn't hit at all, he's still Endy Chavez.
If that be the case, and Saunders be a really exciting young prospect who is going to need 1,000 - 1,500 AB's to jell as a minor star ... then pushing such a player aside for an ML free agent in LF? That puts the 2010 season wayyyyyyy up front as the priority. I'm not saying that's wrong, of course.
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=== NPB Paradigm ===
In these posts, Dr. Naka offered a truly distinctive angle on Zduriencik's decisionmaking process. In this comment, I opined that the extremely-results-oriented Toyota process is valuable ....
The Toyota TQM thinking does allow for patience -- where the investment will reap rewards -- and it does allow for remedies to poor performance. But only to a certain point. At Toyota, there is a relentless sense of urgency about current productivity.
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If Saunders is going to need two full years of playing time before he becomes a MOTO hitter, this strains the TQM thinking to its breaking point. Zduriencik is not looking to win in 2013.
I would be interested to hear, from Dr. Naka and others -- if you assessed a 50% chance that Michael Saunders would become Carlos Beltran, starting in July 2012 -- what would you do with this player?
Ideally, if you're in win-NOW!! mode, the Royals would give you full value for Saunders as the #4 prospect in the PCL. But supposing, because of Saunders' poor debut, nobody will give good value?
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=== Second Opinion Dept. ===
I like the X-rays and opinions provided by Shandler. This is my updated prognosis on Saunders: that he'll need 1,000 AB's, and then he'll quite possibly become a club-controls star.
If that be the case, do you invest the time? Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez have 1 and 2 years left, respectively.
Happy Xmas,
Dr D

