=== Getcher Red Hots ===

Excerpting HQ from time to time, least we can do is link you to their ordering page :- ) so here it is again.  We'll give our own two cents later, but on the run tonight, we'll just pass along others' in Exec Summaries.

Taking a few of their assessments, though not their text, they've got:

• Grade 9B prospect
• Plus PWR
• Plus AVG
• Minus SPD
• Plus DEF

From a detail standpoint, they've got:

• "Strong" hitter
• Consistently has an idea at the plate, out-thinks pitchers
• Excellent discipline and BB's are a given (walked in first 4 ML games - Dr D)
• Will "easily" maintain high AVG and OBP
• "Standout" defender at 1B

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One thing that caught my eye was their opinion of Smoak as being an unusually "strong" hitter.  We jumped over and looked at a few tapes, and sure enough, there's the natural strength, the bat acceleration through the zone and the 6'4", 225 type size.

Some places give 20-25 homers as Smoak's projection and MLB.com's original report has "terrific power" and gives 35-40 homers.

BaseballHQ also lists Smoak as having among the best raw power in the minors and the Rangers' scouting director said, "He controls the strike zone and has power that will play in the big leagues soon."

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What that sums to, for Dr. D, is that if Smoak were pointing to 25 homers in some other park, that pencils to 30+ in Safeco.  This is what Zduriencik has been talking about, that he likes Smoak "in Safeco."

The Mariners have never particularly had a "strong" lefty like Smoak who can make contact, except maybe Raul Ibanez.  (Branyan transcends the park and is irrelevant.)  Smoak looks to be precisely that player whose HR's are going to look a lot better in Safeco than some place else.

Just so.  Get you a big, strong, linebacker-sized lefty who can hit a 380-foot fly ball, and get you the 30 dingers.

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The 9B rating is sky-high; only one player in their book gets their "10 Hall of Famer" rating, that being Strasburg.  Jason Heyward gets exactly the same 9B rating that they gave to Smoak.

• 5 - ML reserve or fringe
• 6 - ML platoon
• 7 - ML regular
• 8 - Better than average (BTA) regular
• 9 - Elite player, MVP candidate
• 10 - HOF'er

Few 9 ratings in the book, much less 9B (70% chance of attaining that level of ML production).  This reflects HQ's projection that Smoak will indeed hit the homers to go with the .400-ish OBP.

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=== Dustin and Justin and Guti, Oh My ===

Capt Jack's been politely "complaining" that his farm system didn't have his next Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols :- ) anywhere in sight.  Now we realize what he meant.  He's not talking about interesting prospects; he wants monster prospects, the kind you can presume to dominate in the majors.  Whooo.

Booming signoff from SSI on Justin Smoak as a young franchise player.  The .300 AVG and .380 OBP, even in Safeco, looks like a given, and even at 25-30 homers that's a 7+ RC per game type.  If it gets much over 30 homers per year, you've got a monster.

Ackley and Smoak, they're such glorious prospects that even if things went wrong you wouldn't feel bad; hey, they had the right idea.

Looks like they've got their first couple of Braun-type SCUDs in the torpedo bay, playing 1B and 2B.  Or if not, I'll take 'em.

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