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Hideki Matsui, Nick Johnson

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Anonymous's picture
Submitted by Anonymous on
The Nick Johnson question is very close to the Chris Snelling question:
 
How much do you bet on a guy who is always injured?
There's a difference, though.
 
Snelling has a career .302/.392/.456/.849 minor league line.
 
Johnson has a career .273/.402/.449/.849 MAJOR league line.
 
No matter what happens to Nick, if he's in the lineup he's not gonna Carl Everett you a season.  I agree that his OPS+ numbers are inflated as far as his effectiveness, since he was not hitting with power last year, but Edgar and Ole had "over-inflated" OPS+ numbers as well, since they couldn't exactly haul themselves around the bases with speed and precision either.  Gar taking a walk instead of a hack with a RISP was frustrating.. but there are worse problems to have.
 
Still, can you keep Johnson at the plate?  His last 3 relatively healthy years were 05, 06 and 09.  His OPS+ those years is 137, 149 and 122.  Is this 122 indicative of a loss of power (since he wasn't a total slap hitter before...) or just a recovery year?  And aren't ALL his years recovery years?
 
Nick Johnson is an interesting case study.  Personally, I'd pay Nick, and then Griffey can play more if/when Nick gets injured.  Bring me Johnson and Branyan, for that matter.  Odds are one of em makes it out healthy, and we have Carp in AAA as insurance (Carp dreams of being Nick Johnson in the pros, Doc - he's as close as you're going to get to a free Nick Johnson, but it would be the .250/.350/.400/.750 Nick Johnson of Age 23).
 
But that's just me.  I'd rather bet with the pro with the ridiculous OBP, let the kid have another year before throwing him to the wolves (and give us the ability to withstand the potential long-term debuts of Tui and Saunders) and have Nick standing on 1B 40% of the time when Russ Branyan is up.  Easier to do more damage with those homers when someone's on base...
~G

OBP_Train's picture

Realize that the SLG statistic by defination doesn't account for Walks. I'ts kinda substantial for Nick Johson since his SLG is actually LOWER then his OBP in 2009. That's hard todo especially if your OBP was .479 in Florida this year....

Factor in he was most of the time with a not very high scoring lineup and batting 2nd. The RBI total shouldn't be high. As for runs, it will be higher in 2k10 once he gets healthy..

Also nick johnson is minor league career obp is .446 which very few players in the minor league have that level of batting discipline. I don't know I think your extremely short selling Nick Johnson here...

 

 

 

Anonymous's picture
Submitted by Anonymous on

I dunno that I'd expect Nick to "get healthy" in 2010 - "more healthy" is all I can ask for - but as for his slugging:  

ISO by year:

2002: 159

2003: 188

2004: 147

2005: 190

2006: 230

2008 (100 ABs): 211

2009: 107

So - 2009 was BY FAR his worst slugging year.  You could bet on 150 for his first 3 years in the league and then around 200 for his next couple.  

Would you bet that his slugging is gonna be 107 again, or that it's probably going to go up to at least what he was as a wet-behind-the-ears rook (again, assuming some skewed version of health)? I don't think his injuries permanently robbed his power, any more than Sexson's did when we signed him.  He broke his femur (not a power risk) and tore his ulnar ligament (potential power risk, but more likely a 2 year injury recovery timetable).  By way of comparison: our new CF of the future, Ackley, tore his UCL and had Tommy John surgery.  It sapped his power his first year back, but his second year after surgery he clubbed a ton of HRs.  Everything was back to normal.  Nick didn't have any problems making contact, he just wasn't clearing fences.  I expect the fences to clear at previous rates going forward.  

Now, even if we split the difference, give Nick the benefit of the doubt and call it a .175 ISO for next season, that's still the bottom 3rd of 1B bats.   

2008 ISO:

Konerko .212
LaRoche .211
Butler .191
Helton .164
Murphy .161
Cantu .154
Loney .118
Nick Johnson  <---- LAST

But we're not getting ANY of the guys ahead of Nick on the list, and if Nick had posted a .175 ISO last year he'd be out of our price range.  His ridiculously low power numbers, even by his standards, are what puts him in our neighborhood to begin with.   I wouldn't mind taking advantage. 

He's due for a power bounceback, and he has some 200+ ISO numbers on his sheet to say he has it in him.  His eye is still dead perfect - MORE walks than Ks.  His .830 OPS isn't the same as an .830 OPS from a faster man, or a more powerful man...but on a team with exactly 2 players with an OPS over .780 last year, how picky do you want to get?   Especially since that could be a .900 OPS with a return of power levels he showed the last 2+ years before his recent serious injuries? 

"Oh, but it's not a HARD .900..."  

Yeah.  I think I'd take it anyway.  I'd take .800 from my DH for the right price. Nick guarantees me that .800, and a shot at .900, for the 130 games he might play.  Griff can have the other 30-whatever.  If Nick signs the same sort of deal Wilson just did (2x10) someplace else and we just slot in Carp/Branyan at 1B/DH I think that'd be a missed opportunity for the 2010 offense. 

We'll see.  

~G

OBP_Train's picture

M's do have Chris Shelton sitting in minor league. I mean Chris Shelton is orders of magnitude cheaper and his career numbers suggest Nick Johnson with 4% less OBP careerwise. That's not bad. So for about 95% less you have a virtual Nick Johnson clone with less mlb experience.

SABR Matt's picture

Considering the Mariners looked at Shelton briefly and decided he wasn't a major leaguer and the Tigers, Rangers, and at least one other team also had Shelton up and agreed with the Mariners that he was not a major leaguer...it should be recognized that the MLB judgment of him is that he can take a walk in AAA, but is too often fooled by big league pitching.

OBP_Train's picture

His Major league CAREER numbers are 

.345 OBP based on ~900Ab's

.457 SLG

 

Ok those aren't exactly eye popping numbers but THEY ARE at least major league numbers.

Now considering that his minor league Career numbers are

.409 OBP

.509 SLG. So yeah Shelton has plenty of opportunity to grow. He also hit well in tacoma.

 

 

SABR Matt's picture

Take out the month where Shelton went bananas early on in Detroit and he's a .330/.420 major league hitter.

Cool Papa Bell's picture

There's a reason why A) Detroit gave up on him three years ago and B) no one else in baseball has cared to give him any meaningful playing time since then. He's simply a bad major leaguer. The guy will turn 30 next year so his minor league numbers are thoroughly underwhelming for someone his age.