.............. 

It's not hard to get a feel for the value of JESUS MONTERO, C if you zero in on the paradigm of player-pairs.  

The generic adjustment is to assume that you'll see about 25-30 runs' worth of offensive difference between C and 1B.  The M's, however, don't have Mike Napoli or Victor Martinez or Russell Martin at catcher; they have Miguel Olivo.  And it ain't like Adam Moore is going to come up and improve the position.

For the M's, on Opening Day 2012, let's compare Miguel Olivo at his 2011 level of production (3.1 runs per 27 outs) and Justin Smoak at a 115-120 OPS+ level of production, about 6.0 runs per 27 outs.  6.0 runs per 27 is high, you think?  Actually, it's what the M's paid for, and it's below what Smoak has done in his hot streaks to date.  But suppose you think Smoak will be gone.  Fine, pencil Mike Carp in for the 115-120 OPS+.

• Montero, C + Smoak/Carp 1B/DH = 95 runs created per season
• Montero, 1B/DH + Olivo, C = 55 runs created per season

You're talking about 40 runs' difference if Smoak (or Carp) has a merely solid year, and that is assuming that Justin Smoak does not have a major breakout season -- say, 115 runs created, like Alex Gordon did last year.  With Montero at catcher, you'd be giving yourself that chance to get a big Smoak season -- and therefore 60 runs' difference.

............

There is nothing unusual about a team getting 60 or 70 runs' difference between their 1B and their C platoon.  For example, in 2011:

• 135 runs created - Adrian Gonzalez
• 74 runs created - Saltalamacchia + Varitek
• +61 runs difference

The New York Yankees, with a very good catcher, had "only" 

• 103 runs - Mark Teixeira
• 69 runs - Martin + Cervelli
• +44 runs difference

At the extremes, this difference can approach 100 runs!, as with 2010's Cardinals:

• 143 runs - Albert Pujols
• 47 runs - Molina + Larue
• +96 runs

What if you don't have much of a stoploss at catcher?  Check out the 2010 Mariners' production at catcher:

• 11 runs created - Josh Bard, in 39 games
• 13 runs created - Adam Moore, in 60 games
• 16 runs created - Rob Johnson, in 61 games
• 40 runs created - total

What good did Fangraphs' assumption, 60-70 batting runs from the C spot, do the 2010 Mariners?  Should the 2010 Mariners have filed with the commissioner to give them Fangraphs' generic run total at catcher?  Will the 2012 Mariners be able to file that petition?

.

=== Stars & Scrubs Dept. ===

You might reply, "Who knows what Justin Smoak will do at 1B?"  I might reply back, "let's think dynamically - in terms of fluid rosters and opportunity to improve."  With 1B and DH open, you have the opportunity to strive for high production.  You have the chance to have a Justin Smoak scenario go well.  

That same opportunity just does not exist at catcher.  What are you going to do, bring Adam Moore up, hope the pitching is okay, and hope he creates +25 more runs than the average AL catcher?

At 1B and DH, though, you can do exactly that.  You can put bats in there, especially top-10 draft picks like Smoak, and give yourself the chance to get lucky.

The whole idea of Stars & Scrubs is to create fungible roster slots, to create roster spaces at which you can dynamically set yourself up for overproduction.  Playing Jesus Montero at catcher is Stars & Scrubs, squared.

.

=== Stacked Lineup ===

The 2012 Mariners gain, it says here, 40 to 60 runs by using [Montero + Smoak/Carp] rather than using [Montero + Olivo].

But now, do you want to talk about synergy?  What is it worth, to stack an Opening Week team with pressure up-and-down the lineup?  Might this create a situation in which the April 2012 Mariners convince themselves that they can hit?

My boyhood heroes, the 1975 Reds, were limping along at 20-20 to begin the 1975 season.  Sparky Anderson decided to stack the lineup:  he pulled the feeble John Vukovich off 3B, he moved Pete Rose from LF to 3B, and he put George Foster in LF.

The Reds won 41 of their next 51 games, and became the Big Red Machine of the history books.  Because Sparky Anderson moved a glove player out of the lineup and put a bat-first player in his slot, and all the dominoes fell into place.

..........

The 2010 and 2011 Mariners did not believe they could hit.  And with just cause.  

Radical approaches are warranted.

.

=== Dr's R/X ===

Fangraphs, using a subjective factor or two, gives 25-30 runs as the generic positional adjustment between C and 1B/DH.  Fine.  No doubt that's the leaguewide average.

But keep in mind that if your particular team is strapped at catcher -- as the Seattle Mariners are -- and if you have heavy lumber available at 1B -- as the Seattle Mariners probably do, with Carp, Smoak and perhaps Fielder -- then that difference becomes 40, 50, 60 ... even 90 runs.

With the 2012-14 Seattle Mariners, figure that positional adjustment as 40-60 runs.  The Mariners are going to get about 50 runs out of catcher if Montero's not there, or about 90-110 runs if they have (say) Fielder and Smoak at 1B/DH with Carp in LF.

Generic adjustments are fine.  They don't mean much compared to an adjustment that actually factors in the players available to a team, in real life.

BABVA,

Dr D