Follow On Nick Johnson

=== Snelling vs NJ ===

Q. The Nick Johnson question is very close to the Chris Snelling question: How much do you bet on a guy who is always injured? There's a difference, though.

Snelling has a career .302/.392/.456/.849 minor league line.

Johnson has a career .273/.402/.449/.849 MAJOR league line.

No matter what happens to Nick, if he's in the lineup he's not gonna Carl Everett you a season.

A. I agree. We're not saying that Nick Johnson isn't a major league starter. He is.

If Nick Johnson had ONLY one problem OR the other -- if he were a .405 slugger who played 155 games, OR if he were Russ Branyan-legit but with health questions -- then fine.

What I don't like is that Johnson has both negatives simultaneously: a guy who's out of the lineup, and a guy who's no ball of fire when he's in the lineup. I don't like the crossing of these two factors. Especially for $7M.

=== Slow OBP With No RBI ===

Q. Realize that the SLG statistic by definition doesn't account for Walks.

Factor in he was most of the time with a not very high scoring lineup and batting 2nd. The RBI total shouldn't be high. As for runs, it will be higher in 2k10 once he gets healthy..

Also nick johnson is minor league career obp is .446 which very few players in the minor league have that level of batting discipline. I don't know I think your extremely short selling Nick Johnson here...

A. Well, there is an argument for Nick Johnson and it's precisely the one that you guys tossed out there: 100 walks in front of Russell Branyan and a second 30-homer man. (Where that 2nd guy comes from, if Johnson's the DH, I dunno.)

Take 30 seconds, and dwell on the year the Mariners stopped winning, 2004.

That was the year that the Mariners had two 1B/DH guys who drew walks, with no power and no speed -- John Olerud and Edgar Martinez in their crash years.

Oley walked 40 times in the first half, but had only 22 RBI (!) and Edgar drew walks but did little else. Both of those guys continued to get free passes, but they died at 1B -- slow runners in a weak lineup. The M's went from 93 wins to 63.

Now, granted, Nick Johnson will hit (somewhat) better than Olerud and Edgar did in 2004. But the point is, a slow DH whose whole game is drawing walks -- you get an awfully static offense that way.

Put Johnson in the Yankees' lineup and he'll score 100 runs, sure. He won't be coming to the Yankees' lineup. He'll be coming into a weak lineup.

...........

80 RBI per 162 games lifetime? That's pathetic for a first baseman. Sexson had 112. Matsui has 106. It's not the teams you play on that drive RBI: it's your SLG.

=== O/U on the 2010 SLG ===

Q. So - 2009 was BY FAR his worst slugging year. You could bet on 150 for his first 3 years in the league and then around 200 for his next couple.

Would you bet that his slugging is gonna be 107 again, or that it's probably going to go up to at least what he was as a wet-behind-the-ears rook (again, assuming some skewed version of health)?

A. Yeah. If you think that Nick Johnson is going to SLG .475, then he's a good player, no argument.

I ha'e mee doo'ts. Seriously. He's been playing in the National League. He has old player's skills. He'll probably play half the year with his body at less than 100%.

I think Nick Johnson has a great chance of coming to an AL pitcher's park and posting the .402 SLG that he did in 2002, or the .398 SLG that he did in 2005, or the .000 SLG that he did in 2007, or the .405 SLG that he did in 2009.

But sure. If you think he's going to hit 300/400/475, ya you betcha. I respect that.

=== .400 OBP = Impact?, Dept. ===

Q. Also nick johnson is minor league career obp is .446 which very few players in the minor league have that level of batting discipline.

A. "Very few" as in none. :- ) Johnson's walks are es-too-pendo.

Dr. D often chortles, with respect to the Ackleys of the world, "It's tough to have a .400 OBP and not be a star."

Nick Johnson pushes the lower bounds of value, given a .400 OBP:

1. Slow

2. No RBI

3. RBI position

If there's such a thing as a .400 OBP player who doesn't help the team much, it's John Olerud 2003 or Nick Johnson 2009.

But we see that .400 OBP and we think, ah, this must be a very desirable player.... :- )

I dunno. Remember that Nick Johnson is precisely the man who tests that ".400 OBP = impact" assumption.

=== Picture's Worth 1,000 Words Dept. ===

Just for fun, check this first baseman's walks, speed, homers... and the W/L records of the teams he played on. .400-OBP first basemen with no homers are ideal guys to serve as the lone All-Star reps of last-place teams. :- )

To be fair, that particular first baseman had a little power for the era he played in, and was overall a more effective player than Nick Johnson. But y'know.

....

Nick Johnson is not my kind of player. I hate slow 1B's who walk and don't give you RBI. But that's a personal bias.

Objectively speaking, Johnson's going to have a following in Seattle. 's OK with me.

Cheers,

Dr D

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One thing...

One thing I learned from Chris Snelling, and to an extent, Erik Bedard, is that I think it's very important to note that Durability is a talent and a skill.

(Ichiro's durability isn't an accident. The difference between 30s Ken Griffey Jr. and Ichiro is gianormous. If Griffey loves baseball, Ichiro LOVES baseball.)

I think some bodies are simply not built to handle the strain of the baseball schedule. Chris Snelling is one of those people. Erik Bedard, perhaps too.

There was an era of better living through chemistry. As we go to the less-chemistry era, I imagine we'll see less durability.

And in terms of players and durability, I think Jack Wilson has a lot to prove. And Nick Johnson is definitely not worth more than Jack Wilson either.

Butch Henry once complained

That he was a talented athlete born with lousy connective tissue. Odd coming from an athlete, but that's what he said...

I have a couple of relatives with Marfan syndrome. They need glasses, they tear ligaments easily, their hearts are at risk.

Some people just tear ligaments and muscles and tendons easily.

Big Oops, Doc.

Sorry, but you need to go back to the drawing board on your anti-Johnson argument, Doc. The very case you invoke to support that high-walk guys need power is not only refuted when you examine the records ... but the exact opposite conclusion is where the evidence points.

You point to the 2004 offensie collapse of the Ms - and blame it on the lack of power. Problem. That ain't what happened.

2003 Ms: .271/.344/.410 - 4th in OBP, 10th in slugging, 139-HR, 795-Runs (7th)

2004 Ms: .270/.331/.396 - 10th in OBP, 14th in slugging, 136-HR, 698-Runs (14th)

Walk differential -- 586 down to 496. HR difference 139 down to 136.

I don't think Newton, Einstein and Stephen Hawking could explain 100 run drop in production based on 3 HRs. The BIG drop --- the ONLY significant countable drop for the offense from 2003 to 2004 was in walks. That's it. That's the ONLY arena where the club had a significant change in production. And the result was a catastrophic decline in runs.

This does not mean there isn't SOME truth to what you say. The 2004 club was unique (in my memory), in that the top 10 regulars were *ALL* 30 and older. That's a clean sweep of "past-prime". 100% past-prime. Not 90%. Not 80%. (Maybe you can quibble on Ichiro, who was only 30 -- but by the actuarial tables, it was a clean sweep).

Olerud & Edgar walked 176 times in 2003 and only combined for 98 in 2004. And you blame the offensive swoon on lack of *POWER*?!?

====================================

I think the problem here is an AL-watcher blindspot, that only sees INNING-based production. This misses a huge chunk of why OBP is valuable. But, having seen the value of the #8 hitter walking, so the pitcher gets up in THIS inning, the value is obvious. TURNING OVER THE LINEUP is where OBP really starts magnifying. A Nick Johnson, whether batting 1st or 5th, (and 5th is my fav spot for a guy like Johnson), is buying extra PAs for the guys in the TOP of the lineup. Johnson, hitting 5th, buys PAs for Ichiro and Branyan and Lopez.

Yes, you do need some smackers and hackers. A lineup of nothing but Johnsons would have problems, just like a lineup of Lopez' will.

Me? I'd rather pay nothing, and let Carp see how good of a John Olerud impression he can muster than gamble on the fragile and costly Johnson OR the fragile and costly Vlad. The 2009 Ms added Branyan, Griffey and Gutz, who were top 3 in walks for the team, and STILL finished dead last in walks. The club needs HRs, yes. It needs walks EXPONENTIALLY more.

Great point about 2004

... and I wasn't using 2004 as a proof -- merely as an illustration. Still, your correction is well taken amigo.

I sat in the stands and chipped my teeth, watching Olerud and Edgar all year long, standing there and taking ball 4, and dying on first base. The visual is vivid. And had Edgar and Olerud been in their primes, the whole offense would have worked.

But yeah, you're right, that wasn't the only problem they had.

..............

Philosophically, we have middle ground in that I like a 300/400/425 first baseman fine, provided that he has two HR guys behind him to drive him in.

I think it's those last-place teams, terrible lineups with a 100-walk "star" at first base and nobody around him, that I'm thinking of.

Of which the 2010 M's could easily set themselves up to be.

:daps:

SLG without OBP

SLG may drive RBI, but we've seen with Branyan that you need runners on base when he bats. Otherwise, you get 19 solo HR. With Johnson, you don't even get the 19 solos, just a slow runner. I'd rather take the risk of playing Carp over Johnson, but I'd be much happier with Branyan and Dunn.

Yep

We're saying mostly the same thing here. You want OBP in front of SLG. We all agree on that. James has said as much since 1983.

You want to run with the big dogs, you want a LOT of OBP in front of a LOT of SLG.

...........

Gimme (Ichiro) Ackley Johnson in front of Branyan and Dunn, if there were some way to do that, and I'm perfectly fine with Nick Johnson.

I'm not fine with Nick Johnson as my big offseason add, when nobody besides Russell Branyan is going to hit 20 homers ;- )

............

Interesting that most people, besides me, like Nick Johnson. All y'all buy into his RC/27. I don't, but that makes a ballgame.

Not far from same page, Doc

I not long ago noted my "dream" lineup would be 3-OBP guys, 3-BIP guys and 3 sluggers.

What I believe is that it doesn't matter much at all what order you assemble them, (as in get them onto your roster). I would argue that a 40-HR whiff-meister is probably MORE worthless without the OBP guys than vice versa, (there's a reason the RC formulae put more value on OBP than slugging). But, I don't disagree with the basic premise -- you need power guys to drive in the on-base guys.

Seattle lacks BOTH.

Having mashers doesn't help much if they're stranded in a lineup of .290 OBPs like Vidro, Johjim, YuBet, Wlad, Reed, etc. The old Earl Weaver plan was good pitching and THREE run homers ... not solo shots.

Me? I think Seattle would be helped greatly to have a second guy on the roster capable of producing an OBP over .350. Currently, all they've got is Ichiro.

I see a future where Carp is posting a .280/.380/.430 line, Moore starts hitting 20 HRs from the catcher slot ... and the club goes out and spends the bucks to fill the failed LF experiments with an FA retread like ... Blalock or Kubel come 2011, (or perhaps some #4 OF ... the next Gabe Gross).

But, if you're EVER going to have a stars and scrubs roster, you've gotta start playing the scrubs. For 2010, they've got Tui, Saunders, Moore and Carp all ready enough to take a look. And from where I'm sitting I think it's complete dartboard over who folds vs. who takes the pot. Moore is a near lock with the Johjima departure. But, what the club does at LF, 3B and DH/1B is very cloudy. Branyan wants two years. If you sign him, I think you've gotta be looking at him transitioning from mostly 1B to mostly DH come 2011. So, you need to be thinking about how best to set yourself up for that -- and allowing Carp to apprentice under Branyan and Griffey isn't a horrible plan, IMO. It isn't your typical straightforward platoon situation, of course.

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