First in ERA, First in Your Hearts, Last In the American League

To paraphrase an old joke about the Brooklyn Dodgers, if we have the right team. *Washington Senators, as Spec points out below. :- )

=== SIZZLER: M's Pennant Chances ===

Was surprised to read a bunch of panicky "are they out of it?!" shtick after the M's lost three in Colorado.

Hey, look. Sometimes you run into a hot team, kiddies! If, the last week or so, Troy Tulowitzki is slugging .765, then for that particular week you might as well be facing Lou Gehrig. If Chris Ianetta is .300/.500/.700 the last ten days, then in the games you're facing him, you might as well be pitching against Albert Pujols. If Brad Hawpe's recent OPS is > 1.000 (and it is), there's Manny in their lineup. If Spilborgh's OBP is .444 recently (and it is), then *for the series you face him,* that's like they've got Boggs too.

If the moon is full and Vlad Radmanovic comes out and lights you up for 25 by halftime, then for that particular game, you might as well have been facing Larry Bird. For the particular series the M's played the Rockies, they might as well have been facing the NL All-Stars. They lost. So what?

..................

Usually you've got a couple players who are very hot. Right now, the Mariners have Beltre and Branyan real hot, and Lopez kinda hot (though with a .240 OBP lately). ... but what happens when you get six guys red-hot together? You go on a 10-game winnings streak. The M's ran into that.

We as fans tend to see each game as a success or failure on the part of the Mariners. But half the time, it was the other team that won or lost the game, not us. :- )

The M's are 5 out, and the only reason Texas' pitching looks respectable is because Kevin Millwood is running a 171 ERA+. The M's are in the pennant race.

=== SIZZLER: LF-1B-DH ===

Was extremely interested to note that after a game or two, Ken Griffey Jr. played LF in the interleague games, and not Endy Chavez. Griff didn't play LF in spots; he sat out the first Colorado game, and then he played the next five (5) consecutive games on defense.

It's possible that the move was political -- that Junior went in and had it out with Wok -- but I doubt it. Far more likely, Wok reasoned "I'm going to need Junior's lefty bat if we're going to make a push," and that's why his team spent the time with Griffey in the batting cage that they did.

Griff *did* look like he was heating up this week. Let's hope. In Thursday's game, he screamed one down the RF line barely foul, and then the NEXT PITCH he socked one off the wall. That's a good sign.

So if Griffey is for choice in an interleague game -- then why wouldn't he be a candidate for LF in the American League? Conversely, if he's not the best choice for LF in the American League, then what was he doing out there in San Diego?

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So let's say that Mike Carp, or Michael Saunders, or Redman or Clement or anybody else, could provide an offensive jolt. Why wouldn't you move Carp or Saunders into the lineup in the LF/DH slot? (And Carp has played some games in LF at Cheney.)

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Look, amigos. The Mariners are #1 in ERA, by 46 ERA points. And they are losers, below .500. Where do you go from there? Your D is by far the best, and you're losing. You MUST make changes to bring in more offense, end of story.

I don't care whether you like pretty defense or not. You have no choice but to bring in offense.

Cheers,

Dr D

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It's really simple

When your lineup is this bad, it's almost impossible to trade defense for offense and be worse off. This team needs to get rid of Beltre, move Branyan to third, play Carp at first and Adam Moore behind the plate. At some point they also need to work Clement and Saunders into the mix. Why it's the middle of June and NOTHING has been done is completely bewildering and unacceptable. Billy Bean would have shook things up a month and a half ago. Z has just sat on his hands so far and I don't get it.

Moving Branyan to third and

Moving Branyan to third and Carp to 1st is an intriguing way to add offense.. The downside is that you now have probably the worst infield defense in the league, but then your OF D is awesome and you're in a flyball park behind a predominantly flyball pitching staff. It shouldn't be that bad and the offensive boost is what important.. Still, I'm probably sticking with Beltre for now. In any contending scenario we need his bat to come alive and we need his overall production.

For me Carp is the regular DH for now to see if he can keep this up and Griffey gets demoted to pinch hitter. No, no, no to Griffey in LF. Just today he completely botched a routine flyball in the early innings. Chavez would have had that EASY and right now their bats aren't that far off. I think even Wlad would have had that ball.

I have no idea how well Branyan would play 3B

Do you guys have any thoughts as to that? One thing is, at Branyan's age, I wouldn't personally worry about Branyan's offensive development being slowed by defensive travails. :- )

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What about Branyan at 3B and then replacing Betancourt with a no-hit, whiz-kid glove at SS? I mean, right now they've got a no-hit, lousy glove at SS, right?

Got any of those lying around, Doc?

I'd love to swap in a no-hit whiz-kid on defense at short...there's just one problem...we don't have one of those and most teams don't part with them easily.

How bad do you want Asdrubal Cabrera back right now? :\

In any event, maybe we should call up Nick Franklin the instant he signs...there's a good chance he's a better fielder than YuBet right out of the box...LOL

How about JJ Hardy Doc? It

How about JJ Hardy Doc? It might be the PERFECT time to buy low on him with Yunel Escobar breathin over his shoulders and the slow start offensively.

I don't neccesarily think that the bat is going to translate at Safeco in the AL, but all we're asking for is a 700-750 OPS with tremendous defense. Isn't that what a lot of people were fantasizing about with Betancourt?

If we're in buying mode, Hardy is a SERIOUS upgrade over Yuni. We're talking 4.5-5 wins or so over a full season. He could be our Gutierrez at at an even more valuable position.

So apparently you aren't paying attention?

What...have you completely missed the last 30 games in which Beltre is the team's best freakin' hitter? Now is not the time to move Beltre of all people. When he was hitting under .200 you had a case...now you don't.

Easy there matey :- )

We don't want Cool Papa trash-talking us about his roto smackdowns, now.

Come now, Doc. :)

You have to admit I'm right on this one. Beltre has indeed been our best non-Ichiro hitter since mid-May and he's also the only good gove we have on the infield. We need Beltre...if we're going to win the west...we need Beltre hitting and fielding and we need to find bats at other positiosn. Branyan is in at first, but I'd have Carp DHing and Griffey and Chavez splitting left field at a minimum. If Carp doesn't succeed early on (which I doubt...I think Carp will hit and hit quickly) well we've got Clement heating it up in AAA.

Another move I'd make immediately would be DFA'ing Sweeney and calling up Chris Shelton. I know everyone loves Sweeney but the man cannot hit...he's done. We need a better right handed bat off the bench.

Along those lines

You could add two big bats to the lineup that way, by putting a bat in LF as well.

...............

As much as I roll my eyes at the defensive fad, however, exchanging the terrific mitt of Adrian Beltre for the mitt of a guy who would perhaps be the worst 3B in the league, would give me pause as to whether it would create a 'critical mass' problem.

Omar Vizquel, in the 90's, held down the infield defense for an Indians team loaded with bats. If you'd pulled him for a terrible SS, the defensive issues might have caused a "sum greater than the parts" negative on the pitching...

Beltre might be holding down the M's infield defense.

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Am not saying that's the case, but I'd want to think about it before I swapped great D at our key IF position for terrible D.

But like you say, the offense is such a problem that it's hard to imagine any move making the position players worse.

Is it really that simple?

Premise - a team with a bad offense won't lose anything changing defense for offense.

2008 worst AL offensive teams: (runs per game) - with DER rank (in majors)

TEAM --- R/Game - DER (rank) - W% -- 2009 data

Oakland - 4.01 - .700 (4th) - .466 --- 4.23 - .689 (19th) - .431

Seattle - 4.14 - .682 (26th) - .377 -- 3.73 - .698 (12th) - .485

Royals - 4.27 - .690 (16th) - .463 -- 4.17 - .679 (28th) - .446

Toronto - 4.41 - .704 (3rd) - .531 -- 5.09 - .703 (8th) - .544

Oakland improved its offense, sacrificed defense, and got worse.

Seattle improved its defense, lost offense, and got better.

Royals see their offense and defense both go down, (as well as their winning %).

Toronto improved its offense by .6 runs a game, but only have a modest win% gain to show, (the defense was stagnant, but they slipped a bit in the defensive standings due to other teams improving).

The evidence does NOT support the notion that sacrificing defense for offense is a silver bullet for improvement.

Honestly, I don't think most of the people screaming for offense have an actual notion of how much gain a switch is going to have.

Endy Chavez for Ichiro -- substantion offensive gain -- .665 to .853 OPS (4.0 to 7.1 RC/G). Well, that RC27 value is based on an entire lineup of the player. But a player is only 11% of the lineup. So, a quick and dirty judgement of how much swapping Endy for Ichiro's twin brother would be: 3.1 (the diff in RC/G) / 9 = .34444. Over 90 games, that would be an extra 30 or so runs. (This is a very simplified method - and lineup position changes things a bit, but as a quick and dirty, it IS in the ballpark).

If you replace Endy with another Ichiro, the club moves up to about 4.1 runs a game, good enough for ... LAST PLACE in offense in the AL. Who thinks Carp is going to immediately be just as good as Ichiro? The simple truth is that you CANNOT fix an offense where 5-7 bats are under .700 by swapping in one player. The ONLY way the Seattle offense is going to move toward average is if the 5-7 slumbering bats wake up.

Me? I'm all for getting Carp in the lineup. I was a Carp fan BEFORE the trade materialized. And I think the upside here is swapping Endy for Ichiro offensively, (though, he's a rookie, so there's a boatload of downside). As to how many runs Junior costs in LF? Could it be more as much as the 30 runs gained? Yes. Could be less. Could be more. But, the performance of the other 7 bats outweighs the performance of the 2 that we're talking about by more than a factor of 3.

Good volley, San-Man. Sure,

Good volley, San-Man.

Sure, in the abstract, you could make a #1 ERA / #14 OPS team worse any time you put in a worse PLAYER. :- )

Would argue that, in the concrete, THIS team had better put more runs on the scoreboard.

40s/50s old Washington Senators

Washington was known as "first in war, first in peace and last in the National League"

Thanks Spec

LOL :- )

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