Fascinating that the reaction, this morning, is that 6/$110M would be taking Felix to the cleaners.  :- )  Good stuff.

Y'all are assuming that 4th-year-player precedents will not apply to Felix.   Um, yes they will.

So we've got good news for youse.  The market structures for Felix are lower than all y'all realize.

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If you didn't get a chance to check out Olney's vid:

1. He offers not one word of his OWN opinions.

2. The industry consensus is that from Felix' point of view, the M's would need to offer 3, perhaps 4, years beyond arbitration (5 or possibly 6 years total).

3. If Felix got 6/$110M, with two years left before free agency, that would be a market-setting deal he would be signing. Other 4th-year players would use that as the new baseline for players in his category.

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There is a big difference between a free agent and a 4th-year player. There are math sheets that calculate Felix' risk/reward as though he were a free agent, a free agent who admittedly has to give a little discount for his arb years.  But he is not a free agent.  And the industry won't treat him as such.

Nero is well aware that the industry will treat Felix as a 4th-year player, and what's more, Nero has emphasized this ("it's not like he's going anywhere if the Mariners won't make a good offer").  Nero brought this point up to a reporter recently.

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You want to talk market realities?  Check Stephen Strasburg's contract.  Scott Boras had 9,324 great arguments that Strasburg was worth far more than "slot money."  Did MLB re-shape the industry for Strasburg?  Of course not.

If the Mariners were to offer Felix money as though he were a pending free agent, MLB itself would bring the invisible hammer down on the Mariners for messing up their system.  

MLB has slot money for draft picks, slot money for 2nd-year players, slot money for international players, slot money for 4th-year players and for 5th-year players.  MLB is quite serious about these structures, kiddies.

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Nero does not have this option available to him, to just go, "Hey, check out this spreadsheet I made.  Felix' actual NPV is 8/$161M counting the arb discount, so that's what I want.   We'll just throw out the industry precedents here."

Nero is not known for chasing pipe dreams.   He's known for getting top industry dollar for his clients, as he did on Johjima's and Randy Johnson's last contracts.

MLB contracts aren't signed in a vacuum.  They are signed in context.  Every contract ever agreed on in MLB was agreed on, based on its relation to other player contracts.

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So be aware that the Mariners probably couldn't offer Felix a 7/$140 or 8/$161 (Sabathia) contract even if they were so inclined.  MLB would shoot that bird down before it even got off the ground.   Nero probably can't even ask for that, not with any serious intent of going forward.

What Nero is left with, is just waiting for free agency.

But is that what Nero has said?  No, he has signalled, "Let's hope the Mariners play ball."  Nero and Felix are more affected by Felix' risks than you and I are.  :- )

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Now, where the M's could realistically get reamed, is if Felix wants big dollars and doesn't want to sell FA years.   Felix comes in with a 2/$32M demand, or a 3/$50M demand, that's where the M's go wandering off, in search of a tall building to jump from.

But:  is 6/$110 do-able for the Mariners?  Alan Nero is probably praying for that offer.

Cheers,

Dr D