Felix' Ks and BBs thru the roof: ERA thru the floor

=== Pedro vs Felix ===

Noodling around watching Felix pitch, not trying to whine here, but I've never understood why he isn't Pedro Martinez. Granted, Felix runs 170 ERA's. But Pedro routinely ran them from 200 to 300. I mean, why?

Bill James once ventured a guess as to why Pedro Martinez was a 250 ERA+ pitcher: he did everything a little better than other pitchers. His FB was a little crisper, his command just a little better, the curve ball just 10% sharper, etc .... and the cumulative effect was overwhelming.

A tempting guess, but I'd go almost the opposite way. I think it was as simple as Pedro's arm angles and deception, and the fact that Pedro was willing to take hitters outside the strike zone. Pedro tried to miss the bat with every single pitch.

I/O: In Felix' last five starts -- against the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, etc -- he's allowed 1 run:

IP - 37
ER - 1
K - 48 (only 22 strikeouts in the five games before that)
BB -12 (only 5 walks in the five before that)
HR - 0
H - 22
ERA: less than 0.25

To a Shandlerite, it is axiomatic that pitchers and hitters can choose to take more [K's and BB's together] if they want to. A pitcher can throw harder and wilder. A hitter can dial up his aggressiveness or dial it down.

For example, Ron Shandler sized up Jeff Nelson for the 2002 season and noted that Nellie's K's and BB's trending up in lockstep. "Throwing harder and wilder these days," Ron shrugged, "And it suits him." Or somesuch.

With a 2-2 count, a pitcher has a decision to make. If he throws a fastball, does he take the hitter up the ladder or does he make sure it's in the strike zone (at the knees)? If the pitcher goes up the ladder, the chances for a 3-2 count go up. The chances for a strikeout go WAY up. You get it? [Strikeouts+Walks] are a decision.

...............

Dr. D's primary beef with Felix, since the 2006 season, has been that Felix lets the hitters make too much contact. He over-challenges. .... Batters swing and miss when fastballs are out of the strike zone, or when the pitch is offspeed. Felix seems always to be throwing his FB in the strike zone -- and throwing it too much. Neither fact is conducive to max K totals.

................

The last 2.5 years, we've seen a 8K, 2.5BB Felix. I think there is an 11K, 3.5BB Felix Monster in there raging to get out.

The last five games, we have seen Felix go for strikeouts. Maybe he'll do that from now on, and we'll see these 1+ ERA's into perpetuity.

Cheers,

Dr D

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stuck in customs, Doc?

Sorry, but on this one, I think you've missed the boat, Doc.

There might be an 11K 3.5BB Felix. And I would argue that he'd likely be WORSE than the current one, (albeit only slightly). Why? Because, as a group, the SABR community (and even moreso, the casual fans), drastically overrate the value of the K in relation to the BB and HR rates.

For their careers, Unit fanned 10.6 to Pedro's 10. Pedro beat Unit in ERA by 1/3 of a run, while pitching mostly in the pitcher's nightmare that is Fenway. The HR rates were nearly the same (.8 and .9) - but the walk rate was almost a full walk per game apart.

I watched Maddux and Smoltz for 15 years - and from the beginning until the end, Smoltz had VASTLY superior "stuff" to Maddux. Smoltz fanned two more guys per game than Maddux. Yet, Maddux finished up .17 ERA better. Maddux fanned a paltry 6.1 per game (in the NL), won 4 consecutive Cy Youngs, and had a pair of back-to-back sub-1.7 ERA years - and he didn't fan 8 in ANY of them.

I'm not intending to be flippant or antagonistic here - but whining about Felix not fanning enough guys is just that - whining. You do NOT win Cy Youngs and become the best pitcher in baseball by walking MORE guys.

Maddux - 1.8 BB/9; Pedro - 2.4-BB/9; Unit - 3.3-BB/9 (but he had ONE season before age 34 with fewer than 3-BB per game - and that was his '95 CY). He then added his other 4 in the NL - ALL with BB/9 numbers under 3.0.

Honestly, Smoltz is a near perfect comp to Felix -- statistically, they're very close, and until he did his stint as closer, he was also a "frustrating" ace to watch - because the eyeball said he was "easily" the best pitcher of the big three, but didn't have the results you'd expect ... UNTIL age 29, (like Unit), when he STOPPED trying to miss every bat. Early on, he was running K/BB ratios in the mid 2s, but when he dropped the walk totals, he spend the rest of his career in the mid 3s (or higher).

Smoltz finished with a 3.05 K/BB;
Unit -- 3.26
Maddux - 3.37
Pedro? --- 4.15
Felix today -- 2.92 (career) - 3.39 for the season

If he were to go to 11.5 and 3.5 that would be a good K/BB ratio. But, that's a tad worse than he's running this season. (And, it would likely cost him innings). I know that most weren't thrilled with the Bedard early exit strategies. (And most give credit for Bedard's breakout year to his K rate spiking above 10. Funny how it is missed that this was his ONLY season with a walk rate under 3).

That said - the GREAT pitchers who upped their games, often got BOTH a lower BB rate AND an increased K rate when it went click. Unit was fanning 10.5 and walking 4-6, but raised his K-rate at the same time his walk rate plunged.

It's funny - as much as we talk about how clutch (for hitters) doesn't exist. For SPs, I think it does. Maddux wasn't a dominant K-pitcher. But, he COULD go for a strikeout when he "needed" one - (and often get it). For SPs, I think 'clutch' actually may be applicable. Knowing WHO to pitch around - who to attack - who to fan - who to get a groundball from. THAT is pitching.

Hey. Maybe Felix has taken it to another level. But, it's far more likely, he's just running a very typical hot streak that every good pitcher has from time to time. But, for the life of me, I cannot think of (or can find) *ANY* pitcher who improved as his walk rate got worse.

It's not a question of K/BB in the abstract

It's a question of my having watched this specific pitcher for five years, and concluding that he's the wrong guy for the pitching-to-contact paradigm.

....

I believe that Felix, specifically, would be a better pitcher if he set out to blow guys away, as opposed to inducing grounders.

Possible that Felix is just "hot." If so, his hotness is grounded in the fact that he's missing bats.

pitching to contact?

Honestly, I think the "assumption" that Felix is pitching to contact is a bit far fetched. This is a case of the League quote likely being treated as if an automatic direction to every pitcher.

But, 2010 is Felix HIGHEST K/9 of his entire career. If he IS being directed to pitch-to-contact, he's doing an absolutely lousy job at it.

To my ears, what you're really seem to be saying is ... Felix CAN fan 10-15 guys a night -- I've seen him do it. Why can't he do that EVERY night?

The answer is simple - NO pitcher does it every night. From my perspective, it's no different than asking why Pujols doesn't hit .500 instead of .300, (I've SEEN Pujols hit .500 for a month).

But, I guess why I opted to respond to the thread to begin with is I guess I was a little disturbed with the lack of gratitude for what is ... vs. what "could be". Felix is, without question, one of the best pitchers in baseball today. He's (statistically), John Smoltz ... but arriving a couple of years earlier to the majors than Smoltz did.

He is CURRENTLY racking up his highest K total - throwing his lowest walk total - and sitting on his best HR rate as well. In EVERY TTO outcome he is ALREADY at his 5 year peak, (and he's still only 24).

I'm not going to pretend I know what his ultimate potential is -- but it CANNOT be significantly higher than where he already is. He's posting his second under 2.50 ERA at age 24. Pedro and Clemens each got their second sub 2.50 ERA at age 27. And they both REDUCED walk totals in getting better.

And perhaps ... a factor in why Pedro started under 500 games, while Clemens started more than 700 had something to do with Pedro fanning 10, while Roger fanned "only" 8.6. I know Smoltz had lots better stuff - far more Ks *AND* lots more health problems than Maddux.

It seems to me, Bedard, (when on), was doing precisely what you're talking about. And the cost was instead of 7.1 innings per start, he's at 6.1 innings per start, (and, of course, a ton of time on the DL).

I can, of course, hear the immediate protestations that Felix hasn't had any injury problems. (They said the same thing about Prior and Wood ... until they had health problems).

In the end, I see the route to Felix getting better NOT in simply trying to strike more people out - but rather in understanding WHEN he needs to strike someone out, and learning how to do so. When you've got the talent of Miguel Batista, you learn when NOT to challenge hitters, (by hitter type or situation). When you're Felix, you learn when TO challenge.

I think what amuses me the most about the general pitch selection threads I've seen is that most everyone understands that Ichiro is successful in stealing 80% of bases BECAUSE he doesn't try to steal every time. Yet, with pitch selection, the logic is - "this is his good strikeout pitch, if he throws it twice as much, he'll strike out twice as many". (excuse the hyperbole).

As for Felix specifically. I think "judicious" and "tactical" deployment of the weapons he has might well allow him to tweak his K rate up to 9 (without impacting his walk rate at all). But, I believe a 'general' idea to simply fan more batters would simply make him more susceptible to injury - shorter outings - (oh BOY! Let's trade an extra inning of Felix for an inning of Sean White!) - and result in little to no change in his actual ERA.

Yes, when Felix is "on", he can be a dominating 11-K, 3-BB pitcher. And when Silva was "on", he was an 8-K, 1-BB pitcher. To my way of thinking - the belief that simply changing his pitch selection is going to allow Felix to "maintain" an 11/3 profile is no more reasonable than thinking Silva can maintain an 8/1 ratio with the proper pitch selection.

BLAMMO...that nail must hurt aroud you, Sandy

...its poor little head...

In any event, I think the key point you make is noting that Pedro Martinez and others like him who are MAX EFFORT pitchers at all times...(thus the high Ks) are more injury prone and less able to go deep into games consistently. You harped on Bedard early...but I missed it. I think going for the K all the time might temporarily boost Felix' ERA+ but cost him longevity. I'd rather have this version...the version that runs 2.40 ERAs and can throw 250+ innings.

Miss your coffee this morning? :- )

Honestly, I think the "assumption" that Felix is pitching to contact is a bit far fetched.

Assumption?

You are aware that I've been charting Felix for five years, right?

Are you clear as to the definition of the word "assume"? The way you look at yourself and others, that will come across, San-Man.

I'm not sure how how CS%

I'm not sure how how CS% relates to throwing your best pitch. I see it more as fastball usage for high CS%. Guys that get caught too much should stop running as much. Guys with poor fastballs should stop throwing it as much.

define "poor fastball"

That's kind of my point, Taro.

Does Felix have a poor fastball? His FB/C rating THIS season is 1.09 - (highest of his career). And, it has improved steadily since 2007. In 2009, Felix threw the Slider 13.1% of the time and had a 0.35 w/C rate. This year, he's throwing it 10% and his w/C has jumped to 1.39. Honestly, Felix' 2010 numbers LOOK like he *IS* optimizing his repetoire.

League is almost beyond analysis - because his 2009 numbers show negative w/C rating for FB, CB and SF -- the ONLY pitch with a positive w/C was his change, which he threw 32% of the time. According to Fangraphs he hasn't thrown a change all year - but EVERY pitch for League in 2010 has a positive w/C. Hard to see how that maps to he's changed for the worse.

I'd say Felix is pretty good.

I'd say Felix is pretty good. Its more in regards to League (not a poor fastball, but throwing it too much) and French (terrible fastball and throwing it way too much).

Weighted pitch values can be misleading in short samples and especially for relievers since it depends so much on BABIP.

League is EXACTLY the same guy he was prior to '09 this season. If we're ok with that.. well I don't understand why we're ok with that.

Ya, we'd all say that Felix is pretty good :- )

The question is whether he could be Pedro Martinez. I believe there's a chance that he could be.

Pedro's fastball usage: 55.7%

Pedro's fastball usage: 55.7% (doesn't include the 90s).

Heck, Randy threw his slider 40+% of the time in his prime! 52.8% fastball usage in 2000s.

The greats tend to not over-rely on their fastballs. Offspeed pithes strike people out and make those fastballs look even nastier.

Greg Maddux the oulier: 69.2

Greg Maddux the oulier: 69.2 FB%.

It makes me understand Sandy's position more. Maddux was a very rare high fastball%, middling K/9, outworldly command, superstar SP.

His command was just that much better than everyone else.

Two great posts

Illustrating that we're both right. :- )

Strikeout artists set you up and then get strike three with breaking balls and FB's outside the zone.

..................

Sandy has been steeped in Greg Maddux' location artistry and, in some cases, seems to analyze pitching through that paradigm. If so, that's cool.

...................

When I talk about Felix pitching to contact, I'm talking about the difference between a 2-2 fastball at the knees, vs. a 2-2 fastball up the ladder. And, believe me, for 5 years he has chosen the former.

I suspect -- hope -- he's about to start choosing the latter.

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