Erik-kkk-kkk-kkk's 2009 value

Amigos are justifiably complaining that much of the media seems to be holding a last-ditch campaign to make Erikkkk drink at a different water fountain. Part of this is the claim that Erikkk "made $8m last year and gave the Mariners nothing."

=== Services Rendered, Dept. ====

Bedard in 2009 threw 82 innings at a 2.82 ERA (yeah, I know), which statgeeked out to normalized performance, equals .... $8.2m of value, per fangraphs.

=== Services Not Rendered, Dept. ===

Quick reality check. Which of these two performances would you rather have, from Cliff Lee, in 2010?

20 runs saved in 32 nice, steady outings -OR-
20 runs saved by the All-Star Break, then suspended 90 days for signing in Seattle and creating a juggernaut not in the best interests of baseball

If you could have +20 runs from a player in 100% of a season, or in 50% of a season, you'd rather have the full season, right? Does that make sense?

Nada.

This was the logical fallacy that always had people complaining about Rickey Henderson and Eric Davis: Rickey might have created 92 runs for the A's in 1992, but he did it in less than 75% of a season, 117 games. That leaves you hosed in the other 45 games.

No, actually it leaves you with 45 games' worth of production added from his job-share partner, if you're comparing Rickey's production to (say) Garret Anderson's 93 runs in 162 games. So you've got

GA - 92 RC in his usual 159 games
Rickey - 92 RC in 70% of a season in 1992
Rickey's jobshare partner Ruben Sierra - 25 runs, prorated

A simple point, you say. Then why are people claiming that Bedard's contribution in 2009 was zero?

The reductio ad absurdum is that if a guy could somehow provide your team two full wins in 2 starts and then retire, that would leave you with 30 starts for other players to add wins also. For any given contribution of 10, 20, 30 runs, the quicker a guy does it and hands off the baton, the more he's contributing to your +25 win turnaround.

=== Reality Check, Dept. ===

Fortunately, usually when a writer claims that Bedard hasn't helped the M's, the comments threads are loaded with reality checks. This accusation has never gained traction. Not in the internet age. :- )

Bedar' wasn't up to his usual standards in 2009. But adding 2 wins in 50% of a season, Bedard still added more to last year's club than Vargas, Fister, Morrow, and Snell - combined.

Bedard - 1.9 WAR, 82 innings
Vargas, Fister, Snell, Morrow - 1.2 WAR, 231 innings

Bedar' at 1.9 WAR was the 36th-most valuable SP in the American League in 2009. Add 0.7 WAR for his jobshare partners -- in 120 IP -- and Bedard+jobshare was one of the top 25 starters in the AL.

2009 was not up to his usual standards, no. But neither was it "taking $8m and giving back nothing." Bedard was the M's 3rd-most valuable pitcher in 2009:

Felix - 6.9 WAR
Wash - 2.7 WAR
Bedard - 1.9 WAR
Aardsma - 1.9 WAR
RRS - 1.5 WAR
Lowe - 1.3 WAR
White - 0.7 WAR
Vargas - 0.4 WAR
Fister - 0.3 WAR

You don't want to pull any of the top six out of that makeshift pitching staff.

Looking again at the way Wakamatsu cobbled 85 wins out of the transition staff, you're impressed all over again. These guys were the strength of the Mariners, making up for an offense that was #14 in the league.

=== Beautif-Lee Done, Capt ===

Looking at the WAR list again, rejoice afresh that Zduriencik just added a seven (7) win pitcher.

For similar reasons to those Bavasi had for adding a five (5) win pitcher in 2008. Bedard gives you 3 wins over the last 100 games, with Felix and Lee laying down their own scorched-earth policies, the M's are a coupla bats (Bradley, maybe) from going 55-25 or something in the second half.

=== Sheets, Bedard and Harden ===

Anyway, the A's didn't sign Ben Sheets because he was healthy in 2009. Their interest is in what he will do in 2010.

Roto owners will agree. Let Sheets and Harden get to ST, throwing well, and in a lot of good leagues, those guys will be drafted top-20 starting pitchers in the AL.

Let Erik Bedard's throwing program go well and he'll be taken 8th round or so in an AL-only league - top 30 starters.

Difference is, the Sheets lotto ticket cost $10m, hard on the barrelhead, for a guy who didn't throw a single pitch in 2009. If Zduriencik gets Bedard for $2m + incentives, he ought to go recruit for the Gators.

Cheers,

Dr D

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Nice writeup, Jeff.

Well said.

I'm lock-step with Doc on this one.

But I'll present a (pseudo) counter-argument to the leveraged value of a great-but-injured player vs. a fair/good-but-built-Ford-Tough guy, as it relates to pitchers in specific, but also position players in general.

For a team like, say, the turn of the century Texas Rangers, a Bedard vs. Washburn discussion is different than it is for the 2010 Mariners. Those Rangers teams were loaded with offense, pretty poor at defense in general, and had like zero dependable pitching. For those teams, they knew they were going to score plenty on a night-in, night-out basis. They also knew that plenty of times, they'd watch a trainwreck on the mound which would overcome their potent offense's abilities.

For those teams, a Jarrod Washburn type of pitcher might actually be more valuable than an Erik Bedard type gamble. With Washburn/Sele, you knew what you were going to get, and at least from the on-field perspective it helps to have confidence in your team-mates. For them, if they had the choice of five Jarrods out there, or five Bedards, they'd have to go with the Burn every time. Their team didn't *need* 5 WAR pitching in the rotation. They *needed* a lock-down bullpen and a rotation that wouldn't let the margin get too wide.

The other factor to consider, obviously, is depth. This is sort of addressed in the previous example, but for the Mariners to back up Felix/Lee/Bedard with RRS/Snell/Fister/Vargas/whoever else, it allows them to play the Stars & Scrubs game a little more effectively since M's scrubs have the potential to throw a Washburn/Sele-esque 4.6 ERA over a season. That possibility essentially didn't exist for the 2000's Texas Rangers teams. Their guys would come in and go 4-10 with a 6.80 ERA over half a year with almost zero pleasant surprises from the farm.

If you've got a 115 OPS+ for the team, and by signing five Washburn/Sele/Doug Davis types you can solidify your team ERA+ at league average, you're going to make a case for the playoffs. Bedard type gambles are not a good proposition for teams that have no pitching depth, or teams that don't *need* their rotation to be a devastating weapon in order to survive. Michael Young/A-ROD/Pudge/Juan Gonzales/whatever other juggernauts were on those offenses pretty much make up the 'core' of your franchise. You let them do the heavy lifting and you just get them enough pitching to keep it close early.

Thanks dudes

and ya, Jonezie, if you've got The Big Red Machine and a very dubious pitching stock in the minors (as they did) then a nice safe average pitcher like Fred Norman might be the route to 108 wins.

There are times when your big priority is for pitchers to not beat themselves.

Not sure that time is when you're #14 in the league in runs scored, of course ... :- )

Absolutely right

about this particular team's needs being Godzilla-style monster stompage from the rotation, since we're unlikely to be anything approaching respectable at the plate. I was in the 'Sign Bedard, Sheets AND Harden' before the offseason started. You could probably lock in 1.8-2.2 pitcher seasons from those three, and it would all be Cy Young caliber innings.

Of course, then we went and traded for Bruc- erm, Cliff Lee. Even considering the modest injury risk we're assuming on him (which is the only thing that makes me a bit queasy about him..Philly jumped on the chance to take the grab-bag of 'spects without anything resembling a bidding war...maybe some health concerns on their part that they didn't want being exposed by umpteen physicals?), he's a major add.

Still, we need to add a centerpiece bopper at 1B. To begin the process of building a playoff caliber offense.

Negative WAR players

like Olson and Frenchy don't help your case to complement Bedard. I'd rather have a Wash 2009 redux for the year, and Bedard for whomever sucks most at that time.

Along the same lines as Ricky in 117 games, last year I would have preferred the first half Branyan, followed by the 60 day DL at the break, and Carp getting his feet wetter in the second half. Russ "left us hosed" in the second half until he went on the DL.

We'd all rather have Wash and Bedard both

... as to the Scrubs, if that's what the M's #3-8 SP field were going to do, provide below replacement pitching, then yeah. You'd break your leg running to the meet with Jo-El Pineiro.

Interesting that a few good M's buds fear the worst out of our SP scrubs. I like our SP scrubs real well. Fister, Hill, etc., have very low BB rates as #7 SP's go.

..........

Gimme Washburn at $5m, a blockbuster for AGone (or Carlos Pena for that matter) and we'll re-title the blog JUGGERNAUT! and go play the 5-gallon tub drums outside Safeco every night.

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