Q: Maybe trading Bedard isn't the best thing. If he would take a 3/$27M deal, that might be better.
A: Would agree that trading Bedard isn't the best thing. You got that right, hombre.
One thing, though:
2006 - $18.4m
2007 - $22.2m
2009 - $21.3m (prorated)
Those are the salaries that Erik Bedard EARNED in those seasons, per fangraphs. It would be nice if we could get $20m players for $9m, sure, but... .
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Q. But Bedard isn't guaranteed to pitch 200 innings. He's fragile.
A. Read the last two sentences again. $18.4 and $22.2 are what Bedard actually EARNED in 2006 and 2007, health questions included.
All pitchers are health risks, including (and especially) Johann Santana. Bedard's arm doesn't give him problems; he just gets dinged up, usually his legs. He especially gets dinged up when he's playing for a team that has nothing to play for, I notice.
Sabathia has been more of a workhorse, but that's talking about yesterday. What about tomorrow? Stats are backwards-looking, and don't predict the future that well. Are you concerned at all that Sabathia's innings will pile up on him the way that Matsuzaka's and Zito's did? I would be.
Erik Bedard is every blinkin' inch the pitcher that Santana and Sabathia are, and those guys are making $23m, not $20m.
Anything that Erik Bedard takes, under $20m, IS giving the Mariners a hometown discount. If he (or Felix) accepts $15m per season, every single one of us ought to be turning handsprings. Great pitchers aren't falling off the shrubs down there at Cheney.
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Q. He's missing a start again.
A. In 30 years, you see all kinds of aces who miss starts.
In the 80's, Bret Saberhagen was a guy who needed to be handled right. The older David Cone ... Pedro Martinez... lots of aces are white-knuckle in terms of their health.
Many times the difference is just intelligence: Erik Bedard won't pitch in pain the way other guys will. He evidently doesn't want to ruin his career. I approve of this.
But, hey. Dr. D's recommendation is OF COURSE assuming that the 9,000 nuclear tests are conducted before a long-term deal is signed. You MRI the shoulder and elbow and image it six ways from Sunday.
This is par for the course in big-money sports. If it shows too much wear and tear, you don't make the deal.
But the vague, generalized "I don't feel comfortable that Bedard won't get hurt" doesn't hold much water compared to the hard data that is provided by 21st-century medicine. The Mariners will judge Bedard's health with facts provided by doctors.
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Q. Suppose we find out that Bedard has a rotator cuff? This would look pretty stupid.
A. Nope. If Bedard turns out to have an injury at any time prior to his physical, such as now, it's simply a moot point.
The same applies to all FA signings. Remember how panicked everybody was about Richie Sexson's shoulder? They imaged it, the doctors said the tissue was sound, and Sexson's health was fine all the way through.
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Q. Any D-O-V (TM) gushes over Bedard's greatness while we're stopped at this hamburger stand?
A. John Benson's rule is that you can read pitchers by looking at their WORST seasons. Since 2006, when Erik Bedard became Erik Bedard, he has NEVER had a rough season -- not even a rough MONTH as far as I can tell. His *worst* ERA in four years was 3.76.
This is a man who throws two (2) pitches:
1) A curveball that a-l-w-a-y-s produces either a strike or a weakly topped grounder (because it dives so hard)
2) A fastball that is easy for Bedard to throw because he only has to find the 'feel' for two pitches, each night
Randy Johnson was great night-in, night-out, precisely because he never had to struggle to find the feel for three or four different pitches. His game was very easy for him to execute.
Two-pitch guys like Nolan Ryan, Josh Beckett, Randy Johnson, Erik Bedard, they're beautiful sights to see. Sometimes it seems like they pitch 30 good games in a row.
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There are no guarantees with pitcher health, none, anywhere. But you should feel *more* secure with Erik Bedard's consistency than with other aces. The guy just never pitches lousy.
You've got a lefty with boo-coo strikeouts, who has completely mastered his craft, who is the ultimate competitor when on the mound, who loves the city, who is this generation's Steve Carlton and who just asked to stay here. Who, precisely, are you waiting for?
Sign 'im up,
Dr D
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