A-Gon.  Nick Johnson.  Branyan.  LaRoche.

Every other day someone is pushing the idea of some 1B import to come and pump up the offense for the Ms.  And in nearly every case, the idea that the Ms "might" have a LONG TERM 1B option nearly ready in AAA as we speak isn't mentioned.  I appear to be the only guy on the planet, (except perhaps Captain Jack), who believes that Carp is being SEVERELY under-rated by the masses.  So, I thought I'd explain why I believe this.

The obvious:  He's a high OBP 1B with some power, (which is exactly what Johnson and LaRoche are).  He's also effectively free of charge.  He turns 24 next June, so still 3 years away from peak. 

The subtle: 

In 2005, as a 19-year-old in A-ball, Carp posted a .249/.358/.476/.834 line with 19 HRs in only 89 games (313 ABs).  He *HAS* power.  But, he also had a 35/96 BB/K split.

In 2006, as a 20-year-old in A+ ball, he posted a .287/.379/.450/.829 line with 17 HRs in 137 games (491 ABs).  See the difference.  His average goes way up, but his HR rate drops.  His BB/K was 51/107.  Only 11 more Ks in 200 more PAs.  He *CHOOSE*, (or was instructed), to reduce his power, because a .250 average in A ball simply wasn't going to translate to the majors.

In 2007, he moved to AA, and struggled.  .251/.337/.386/.722.  He his only 11 HR in 98 games (363 ABs).  His BB/K was 39/75.  PRIOR to the 2007 season, he made the Mets top spec list (#8).  But, after a horrid '07, that label vanished.

In 2008, forced to repeat AA, and exploded.  .299/.403/.471/.874 with 17-HR in 478 ABs (97 games).  His BB/K went to a stunning 79/88!  The kid "got it".  He began maximizing his talents.

In 2009, he moves to Seattle, (Tacoma).  He posts a .271/.372/.446/.818 line in Tacoma with 15-HR in 413 ABs (110 games).  He also added a nice .315/.415/.463 line in 65 major league PAs.  His BB/K dropped to 58/99.  Still 100 points of patience and 180ish ISO.  Increased Ks forced his average down while everything else was basically static, (while taking on a new level).

My analysis.  This is a kid who is ADAPTIVE.  This means, he can change his approach at the plate until he maximizes his natural talents.   His major league cup-a-joe included an 8/10 BB/K split.  At the moment, he has not learned to leverage his power capacity.  BUT, his 19-HRs in 89 games at age 19 *CLEARLY* indicates he has some "inate" power.  Lopez had 13 HRs in 287 ABs at age 19.  Then it's been 10, 11, 17, 25 HRs from age 22-25 for Lopez.  BUT, Lopez is *NOT* naturally adaptive.

Seattle has been saddled with uncoachable quick-twitch types for some time.  So, mass perception is biased against the CONCEPT that players might IMPROVE after arrival.  But, a player like Carp is exactly the "type" of player that could post a couple of OBP-laden .800 OPS seasons, and THEN add the power and become a .900+ producer for another 5-7 years. 

Why is Z not madly dashing into the 1B FA pool?  I think it is because he sees the same thing in Carp that I do ... and he wants no part in spending many millions to get production only nominally beyond what he can already get for free.  Additionally, he doesn't want to bring on a multi-year contract that is going to slam the door on Carp's chances.  I suspect this is why he's pushing back on the multi-year demands from Branyan, (as he should).

Of course, Carp could fail.  He could become the next LaHair.  So, Z needs to balance his belief in Carp, (whatever that belief is), against the reality that there are no sure things.  And most of the fans want more pop than OBP.  TODAY, Carp appears to be a guy who'll hit 15-20 HRs, and that isn't enough for many fans.  But, I think, just like Lopez, his upside is considerably above his current level -- AND he's a lefty, so he doesn't have to fight against Safeco -- AND he's more adaptive, so whatever his ceiling is, he'll likely get there much quicker than Lopez.