You are here

Canadian Bacon

Replies

Steen's picture
Submitted by Steen on

Optimism is great Doc, but at the expense of details? What about Saunders month of june(.242,.215,.400) while striking out nearly %25 of the time? His line against LH's .247, .312,.400 doesn't mitigate my doubt. Are there reasons for optimism I'm missing, you never seem to lack for it. ; )

etowncoug's picture
Submitted by etowncoug on

Lets just say I disagree.

Maybe in the steroid era, you could expect (expect being the key word here) 30 bombs a year from Saunders. I think 20-25 bombs is much more realistic with a few 30 dinger seasons sprinkled in his prime years is the reasonable projection.

Cool Papa Bell's picture

...in the sense that he'll immediately hit in the majors. Adam Jones and Jeff Clement both showed that just because you destroy AAA pitching doesn't mean there won't be struggles in your first exposure to the big leagues. Regardless, that wasn't the point of my piece. I was talking about his long term upside which I think is very high, higher than the consensus view point.

 

Cool Papa Bell's picture

Every hitter has a bad month. I remember when Miguel Tejada in his prime went a month without a homerun. Not sure why that would make you skeptical, then again everyone freaks out when Ichiro bats .280 in April.

As for his numbers against southpaws, that's just nitpicking. It's a small sample so you should expect that to fluctuate a lot. At age 22, Jim Thome had better numbers against lefties than righties; the very next year he was atrocious. Doesn't mean anything. Besides, he's young and so he has plenty of time to get better there. Anyway, even if he never improves in that department, if he slugs .600 against righties I won't complain about a near league average OPS against the occasional lefty.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

Hope you submit a good number of articles like the above, Champ.  Good stuff.

Spot on w/r/t the fact that org rankings tend to be written so as to justify previous years' commitments.  And it's important to keep in mind on Saunders.

On LH platoon splits, I expect *most* young lefty sluggers to take a few years to gain respectability vs LHP.  Odd that Saunders was called up to face 5-6 LH starters in a row, because he doesn't figure to help the team much against them.

Spectator's picture
Submitted by Spectator on

I've been a huge Saunders booster all along, and I hope he makes the most of his shot.

One thing you don't mention is that Saunders is not just a northern climate guy, he was a multi-sport guy (like Tui) growing up.  His Canadian Olympic team bio is here: http://www.nbcolympics.com/athletes/athlete=1522/bio/

Note: youth hockey prodigy, hoops (dunking in high school), soccer, lacrosse.  So the guy is:

1. oozing with althetic talent; and

2. "baseball young" -- that is not a guy from a sunny clime who was taking 10,000 ground balls a day year-round at age 11.

So I expect a "learning curve" to continue, and MLB might be a bit much too soon for him, but I think this regime will know that and try to get him in the right spots.  Having Langerhans around takes a lot of pressure off.

When he first started gaining notice, I thought he looked like a Jim Edmonds/J.D. Drew type if he maxed out, but Papa is right that fellow Canadian Jason Bay is another good comp.

I don't expect 30 bombs, but 18-25 with 30ish doubles and a good OBP would be plenty good.

Spectator's picture
Submitted by Spectator on

So Bay is more of a comp in terms of being a cold-weather atheletic type who moved up the ladder faster than anticipated.

And since we're talking about guys from British Columbia (like Saunders and Bay), here's a slight change of topic, but one more shout out to my new hero, who is having a High Desert-fueled but nevertheless very impressive breakout season, with 2 HR in his last two games:

Tyson Gillies (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQu6xBVfmz8)

357 AB, 122 H, 8 2B, 9 3B, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 50 BB, 65 K, 29 SB, 13 CS, .342/.441/.482/.923

A true lead-off hitter with double-digit triples and scads of patience?  Gillies power and BA are enhanced by the freakish Cal League conditions, but still ... gotta keep an eye on him.  (And he's a good human-interest story, 25th-round draft pick overcoming being hard of hearing.)

I think that Rickey was quoted as saying he was ready to un-retire at 50 instead of go into the HOF, since he figured he'd be better than most of the leadoff hitters still playing.  Any quick thoughts, Doc, on how important it is to have the table-setting guy and where Ichiro fits into the paradigm and if Gillies could be his successor?

Leave a Reply

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <ul> <ol> <li> <i> <b> <img> <table> <tr> <td> <th> <div> <strong> <p> <br> <u>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
By submitting this form, you accept the Mollom privacy policy.