..........
=== Whither Pineda and Doogie? ===
Can depth overcome marquee power? Sure, the same logic applies on the mound. If you don't have multiple aces, you can certainly accomplish the same thing if you can -- and it's a big IF here -- have the best 4-thru-9 pitchers in the league.
All M's fans, by which I mean "Dr. D and G-Moneyball," have been fretting about the -3.5 WAR each that were subtracted when Zduriencik shed our second and third aces.
It's true that you're asking a lot, if you're asking James Paxton and Hector Noesi to rack up 3.5 WAR apiece. But the thing is, they don't have to. The 2011 M's did have three excellent SP's, but they blew a lot of that out the tailpipe in billows of blue oil-burn smoke. Here are a few of the worst offenders:
| P | ERA | WAR |
| Vazquez | 8.90 | -1.6 |
| Furbush | 6.62 | -0.8 |
| Lueke | 6.06 | -0.4 |
| Ray | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| Gray | 4.89 | +0.1 |
In fact the M's burned 300 innings on the above guys plus Laffey, Cortes, various and sundry pitchers from whom they got a collective -2 WAR.
And this isn't at all necessary: the Texas Rangers, who did not spend a lot of money on pitching, gave only about 80 innings to lousy pitchers. The Mariners' Big Three was easily as good as Texas', but the Rangers fielded another 7-8 quality pitchers after the Big Three.
Last year's Mariners had a great Big Three, but their team ERA+ was only 99. With the huge flotilla of arms they have sailing in, anchored by Felix Hernandez, their target should be much higher than 99.
.
=== 2001 Mariners ===
The 116-win Mariners led the league in ERA, sporting a jaunty 118 ERA+. But they didn't have a lot of WAR to back it up:
| P | WAR |
| Garcia | 4.0 |
| Moyer | 3.0 |
| Sele | 2.4 |
| (Rhodes) | 2.4 |
| Jo-El | 1.5 |
| Abbott | 0.9 |
| (Nelson) | 1.3 |
| (Dai-majin) |
1.2 |
| (Charlton) | 0.5 |
In other words, you don't need Felix, Pineda, and Doogie at the front of the rotatio, before you start thinking about a run at a 118 ERA+. You can improve the #4-9 pitchers and accomplish the same things.
(Alert readers will go, wait, the 2001 M's had a great defensive efficiency rating. True, but even after you remove the M's 9.9 defensive WAR they still won 106 games.)
Check the above table: the Big Three had 9.4 WAR and the starting five pitchers had about 12.0. Could the 2012 Mariners match that? Sure: the following rotation would equal the 2001 Mariners in WAR:
| Felix | 6.5 |
| Vargas | 2.5 |
| Noesi | 2.5 |
| Iwakuma or Millwood | 2.0 |
| Paxton, Hultzen or Millwood | 2.0 |
| Total | 15.0 |
| 2001 Mariners, they of the 118 ERA+ | 12.0 |
You get the idea. Now that Pineda, and, um, Prince Fielder are gone, the Mariners have a bit different of a dice roll to throw. They need their #4-9 pitchers, and their #4-9 hitters, to win games for them.
.
.................
Taro will like the radar gun reading on the scoreboard, we're guessing ... can hardly wait for the NL games, with a 3 hitter like that one ...
.
=== Nobody Remembers in August if You Won A Game In March, Dept. ===
I don't know what Earl's Fourth Law has to do with anything, but .... in all the excitement about PAXTON AND HULTZEN AREN'T COMING NORTH, YOU IDIOT!!, have we forgotten that even if not, they'll still be part of the 2012 club?
Jack's got blue-chip prospects running the field like roaches. They'll need to play well if this team is going anywhere.
Enjoy,
Jeff
Printer-friendly version
