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Around the Horn, 1.15

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Taro's picture
Submitted by Taro on

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=455077

Looking at that Carp actually rates out as an above-average defensive 1B in the minors. I wonder if this is just something the scouts are getting wrong? I'm looking for evidence that Carp is a poor fielder and I just can't find it. Even his short time in the majors he rated as a +5 run fielder.

Btw Everidge is an awful defensive 1B. Hes a DH really. A platoon DH at the MLB level at best. Hes the AAA DH this year hopefully, and hopefully they waive him so he doesn't cost a 40-man roster spot.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

Sounds like a safe presumption that the beefy Everidge would have knee-to-knee range.

Carp, with his excellent hand-eye coordination and reasonably athletic lower body, should compare reasonably well to all the 230-lb. first baseman around the majors.

Solid.

malcontent's picture

Is that he's being compared to some truly awful DH types that are playing firstbase in AAA, such as Everidge, because the DH spot is much more commonly used by players recovering from injury in the minors than it is in the majors.  So the average defensive first baseman is much worse than it is in the majors.  I looked through the PCL 1st basemen and found Daric Barton ran TotalZone ratings of 14/150 and 13/150, compared to the 6.5/150 he's run in a season and a half at the major league level.  If you make the same kind of adjustment for Carp, he looks a lot more like an average fielder, which is still probably better than scouts would give him credit for.

OBP_Train's picture

Couple points I wanted to add but been so busy this week.

1) Gambling in sports can work provided you find odds that are sufficiently good. It's why I only bet on the mlb WS outright 8 months in advance. Already won on my first try($50 made $5050 on rays getting to WS). So yeah if you have 100:1 odds and you win say less then 5% of the time your still getting 5:1 on your money which is a insane amount of return. However only works on the underdogs. Betting on yankeees to win WS or betting on weekly games imho is just downright wasteful. If your that smart on daily events do day trading instead.... You can even make a bigger rate of return in sports gambling if you use the first time gambling bonuses and aren't loyal to a particular establishment. Um why should you be loyal? ;-)

2) Point #2 I put $30 on A's to win the WS and here's why(I'm a M's and Jays fan btw).

Why A's are the darkhorse to win the WS in 2010:

1) A huge collection of underperforming AAA MVP's in their lineup:

Mcpherson,Kouzmanoff,Fox,Carter,Jack Cust,

Each of these players have showed .600 slging in AAA in the past. Collectively the ceiling of these 5 players alone is ~200 hr.

2) Defensive++ players

Kouzmanoff,Coco crisp,rajai davis,michael taylor, sweeney

3) One of the best lineups in Oakland since the bash brothers days...

Just throwing a lineup out their you may see

1) Michael Taylor 2 Cust 3carter 4 mcpherson 5 Fox 6 Suzuki 7 Pennington 8 ellis 9 crisp/davis

The top of that order is downright scary. 

4) a highly underrated starting rotation

1) duscherer 2) braden 3) brett anderson 4) cahill 5) Gio gonzalez?

5) a even more underrated bullpen

So conservatily I'd put the As hitting ~250 hr in 2k10 with significantly better defensive and improved pitching. Now granted most of the AL west got better but seriously how isn't this a dark horse? The main thing is most people like brand name players but when you crunch the numbers the A's are a scary team.

 

 

 

 

 

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

A lot of the 1-800 pundits think it's easier to pick one $20 horse than five $4 horses...

Interesting detail analysis of the A's.  If those five AAA stars put up 40 homers each :- ) the division is indeed in a boatload of trouble.

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