Ackley's SLG at UNC

High school coach Jeff sez:

Thanks for the lists and comments. I think people against the move forget that Ackley is a talented athlete, played SS in HS and 1B in college. He would have a slight learning curve to get back into the outfield as it is. But to have him replace Lopez after this year would be a delight to watch. True about the hand/eye coordination. There are more future outfielders than hot infield prospects. I am glad that the M's were willing to at least experiment, even if it didn't turn out as planned. Willing to move ahead with a future stud!

Roy Hobbs swinging 'Wonderboy'?

....

To which Anonymous' pithy reply is:

And lack of lower body development, he'll need a magic bat to perform like Roy Hobbs. The Mariners are fortunate Ackley looks capable at second.

=== Dr's Diagnosis ===

Forunately for M's fans, Ackley had this 'magic bat' at UNC.

In 2009, Ackley had 22 jacks in 66 games: that's equivalent to 50-55 homers in a full ML season. Fifty!

Ackley slugged .763, finishing 2nd in the conference in SLG.

..........

You might say reply that Ackley was using a metal bat ... however, as I understand the rules, also using a metal bat was 220-lb. catching superstar Tony Sanchez, who SLG'ed .614, and all the other ACC 1B's and LF's who hit for less power than Ackley did. Sanchez SLG'd 50% below Ackley's marginal SLG, that being in the same conference, against the same pitchers.

Think about that for a second. Ackley outslugged Tony Sanchez (the #4 overall first-round pick) by ... um ... 150 points, game for game, pitcher for pitcher.

Because Ackley had a high average? Nada. Ackley even dwarfed Sanchez in ISO ... that is, SLG-AVG ... by a margin of 246 to 168. Ackley's isolated power -- subtract the singles -- was far, far above Tony Sanchez'.

Ackley had 22 dongs to Sanchez' 14 ...

At 19, Sanchez slugged .425 to Ackley's .591 in the same year.

At 20, Sanchez slugged .517 to Ackley's .597 ...

At 21, .763 to .614 Ackley. And Sanchez is supposed to have plus-plus power.

............

His SLG in three years in the ACC -- comparable to full-seaon class A baseball, even A+ when you get to crunch time -- was .600, .600, .750.

By contrast, here is a 6'3, 200-lb. ACC first rounder who hit 16 homers in his career in the ACC.

.............

From time to time, we've gotten into 300-comment food fights as to where bigtime college baseball ranks against the lower minors. We had some beauties back when folks were arguing, hey, if Tim Lincecum walks 4-5 men a game in the PCL, how's he ever going to pitch to pro hitters...

In general, college superstars are more than ready for AA baseball right out of the chute, and that is because College World Series teams are comparable to weak AA ballclubs already. It's true that 50% of the players at UNC are non-prospects, but it's also true that the top 20, 30 ACC players are blue-chip pro prospects.

Take a legit college megastar like Strasburg, Ackley, Sanchez or whoever, and he just needs a quick adjustment in A+ before he's on to tackle (and usually lay waste) AA baseball. Pedro Alvarez is an example from the previous draft; so is Buster Posey.

............

I don't say that Ackley is Rich Poythress, but he's hardly Joey Cora, either :- ) The idea that Ackley will need a miracle to hit for power is off track. He has already hit for outstanding power.

As a LF, Ackley was a perfectly legit #1 overall. As a second baseman, he's a lot more than that.

If typical, he'll need 2010 in the minors, and then be ready for Safeco in 2011.

Cheers,

Dr D

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Dustin Ackley

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Referencing Cora makes my

Referencing Cora makes my point into a bit of strawman, Doc. I'm not saying he's going to be a bust, which in my mind is what it would he would considering his draft spot. My point is that looking at his body its hard to feel confident projecting power for him. I realize people will bring up his batspeed. But its an unconvential template to produce power from. Soriano comes to mind...but that's about it off the top of my head. Obviously, this doesn't mean he can't do it, just that seeing him produce w/ a wood bat wood assauge those concerns significantly. And, this might be my own blind spot, but I think filling corner outfield spots and first base with good players whose offense is based entirely. On avg is difficult gambit to pull off. Different ways to skin a cat sure, but the ichiro mold is much less common.

Right anon

Not meaning to representing you as forecasting a Cora SLG.

There is obviously a case to be made that Ackley is going to struggle to hit even 10 HR's, and this might even be the consensus in Seattle these days.

IMHO this consensus has lost sight of the fact that Ackley showed #3-#4 hitter PX at UNC. Ackley might not hit 35 homers, but his UNC production suggests that 20-25 or more homers is a possibility.

Good comps

Thanks good Dr! I might very well be wrong but I had heard that the NC stadium the Tarheels played for Ackley's last year had shorter fences? The head to head comps help to see the potential that is obviously there. Leverage is an amazing thing! No guarantees...but great to debate and watch!

Speaking of "wonderboy" bats, the High School Federation will be using a new standardized bat in 2012+ that will make it more of the equivalency of a wood bat. Kind of interesting as the day of power this and that sees the old come back. Kind of like with golf and the new technology, there is more to the game than swinging for the fence each time. Those with true power will shine even more.

It is nice to be wondering about the short term potential of a Mariner prospect rather than hoping to get another high draft choice next year to help stop the erosion of that deep former GM hole!

Ya, I think I read that the top women's pros

Serve 130 mph or something in tennis.

I remember when I was a kid, Roscoe Tanner being a sensation because he could hit 100 mph with his game-breaking serve...

Agree that as the equipment gets a little more sane, it gives a chance for talent to emerge more... also, the pitchers might not have to pitch with softball helmets :- )

.................

Hey Jeff, you know in BP they have the nets in front of the pitcher... what do you think of the idea of a small, 4x4 almost-invisible plexi screen in front of the MLB pitchers on their followthrus ...

Balls that occasionally ricochet off it would be little different from batted balls that go crazy off the bases once in a while, and then you'd have spared the pitcher an injury...

Better than witnessing a fatality, it sez here...

Or not :- )

Good point, great idea!!

WOW! Yes, Tanner could serve like lightning and it would be slooooow today! Good thought. Wonderful idea about the 4x4 until force fields are invented. With the hot bats, big barrels, etc., today it a huge concern. Want to help me market an idea? Do you remember Sam McDowell? He was known as "Sudden Sam." A big lefty for Cleveland. I remember going to Pilots games with my Dad at old Sicks Stadium in 1969 and getting tickets first row right by the visiting on-deck circle from a business. That was such a small stadium that we were maybe 10 feet from the player. McDowell was on-deck without his batting helmet (remember the pre-DH days). I asked him as a young fan...he took his hat off and the one that he wore in the field had some kind of plastic liner almost serving as a mini helmet that he wore on the mound. I had tried to look it up a few years ago on the net to make sure I wasn't dreaming but found nothing. I have always wondered why that didn't stick more with pitchers at all levels. And I still think could be marketed.

In defense of "big hitters"

In defense of "big hitters" who are projected to have more power than those who slugged at least as much as them with the metal...

The sheer whip of a metal bat can help those with good bat-speed using the lighter bats to crush balls that they won't be able to hit as big leaguers, and can over-inflate their future potential a bit.

Alternately, some guys can have a power-outage of sorts with metal bats. I think Raben is/was like that. Some big guys can't fully get the hang of a light, whippy bat. It's like a toothpick to them. They need a more solid wood one in their hands to make the right kind of contact because they're overswinging with this tiny thing in their hands. Raben's a guy I expect to have MORE power with a wood bat, especially compared to his metal-bat peers, and so he's somebody I'd rate higher in the future-power department even with his somewhat-pedestrian college lines (partially influenced by injury as well). I just hope his knee is okay. Watching Kenyon Martin pull down double-doubles every night these days with two microfracture-repaired knees gives me hope. :)

But the WAY Raben was swinging a metal bat and his immediate jump to the head of the class in the summer when they put a heavier bat in his hands made me curious - there are other big guys who do that who also make me curious.

BTW, Ackley was doing fine in the Cape Cod league with wood bats before his TJ surgery was required (by "fine" I mean "Ackley is the best hitter I've seen on the Cape since (Mark) Teixeira,” per his manager Steve Englert).

As for "production against his peers" w/r/t Ackley...Just to play Devil's Advocate for a second, let me give you the following line put up for a good Pac-10 team that's often a CWS contender:

Junior year: .394 with 18 doubles, 8 triples and 10 HRs as a MIF, Pac-10 player of the year, etc. His name was Willie Bloomquist, and until Ackley's Junior year power surge you could compare as slap hitters who are "gamers" etc.

For his CAREER Willie hit .394. There wasn't anything Bloomie couldn't get that bat around on in college.

Ackley's sophomore year: .417, 21 2B, 4 3B and 7 HR. I can understand doubts, even though I no longer have them. His power showed up the next year and that was my ONLY question with him.

I understand those who looked at his first couple of years and said "marginal power." Or at his Junior year and said, "lucky flies for HRs."

With his batspeed though that he MAINTAINS with wood, it's not luck. When he fills out, look out. He's a PLAYER. And now that his elbow is healthy, we're likely to continue to see many excellent things from him.

2010 should be a fabulous minor league campaign for him. Fingers crossed. :)

I was actually going to hypothesize

that smaller guys would benefit quite a bit more from metal bats than Prince Fielders, Ryan Howards, Babe Ruths and Adam Dunns would. Those guys get their entire bodies into the motion of creating torque at the point of impact, but smaller guys tend to have whippy swings with metal bats, the type of *swings* you can't generate when the bat weighs 4-6 more ounces.

I would use a 33" 26oz bat and hit balls 440' in my backyard just tossing them up to myself, then when I'd switch to a 33" 31oz wood bat, they fell down to about 400'. That's ten percent of the distance, and for guys like Bloomquist I would guess most of his HR's come as yankers down the line. There goes the power, right?

Ackely wins raves @2b. Really. Literally.

Can't help but pass along this quote that's kinda buried in a long Stone post. You don't often see scout types make on-the-record statements quite like this. You wonder if someone from Z's office was off to the side, frantically waving his arms and mouthing "there are media here" under his breath, because it's so over-the-top compared to the usual "atta-boy" kind of quotes you get. But it seems they are pretty confident about building up our man Dusty:

Here's what Carmen Fusco, the Mariners' director of pro scouting, had to say about Ackley's move from the outfield to second, which began this offseason,.

"I was one of the first to see that transition from the outfield to second base, and I immediately told Jack (Zduriencik) and the front office and Pedro Grifol (director of minor league operations), this is something I would pursue. He is a baseball player. Sometimes, we get caught up with, he's a good athlete. He's a good baseball player. His actions, his catching, his throwing, just embody that of a middle infielder. When he took ground balls, it was amazing. Really. Literally. He played through ground balls, his feet were moving. This wasn't a kid who stopped and had to re-gather himself. This was a kid who had a good feel for playing through the ball, hands worked through the ball. Then when I saw him after, it was in December, I was back in Arizona. He was working with Mike Brumley, who I feel is a brilliant middle infield coach. I told Jack, and again the front office, from where he was when I first saw him, to where he was today, you would have thought this player was a middle infielder his entire career. Game speed, without question, is going to be for me the tell tale. This is a special, special, special talent."

So now we're more confident in his SLG, and we're more confident he can play 2b?

If Rod Carew had hit 25 homers a year, what would you have? George Brett playing middle infield I guess?