=== RUSSELL BRANYAN, SIZZLER === We all know that Mr. Three True Outcomes is hitting .300/.400/.600 in fulltime play. We also know that he's got a BABIP near .400 -- despite playing in a park that devastates BABIP ... ... for most players. (Speaking of most players in Safeco, were you aware that Rauuuuuul is STILL slugging over .700?) Our QUESTION is, how good can Branyan be when hitting in normal luck, and for how long? Is he a player you can win your next pennant with? ................... Branyan's CAREER hitting line is .250/.340/.500. That's despite never getting any consistent at-bats. Even as sabermetricians, we don't doubt that he can hit a couple of notches better than that, when in rhythm. Just looking at the history of .250/.340/.500, and then the .300/.400/.600 once given his chance, nobody's going to choke on a .260/.360/.550 projection going forward. Is that a star? Prince Fielder's career line is .275/.370/.530. .................... You factor in the park, and you factor in the salary, and here's a guy you can pencil for 35 homers and 80+ walks at a relatively low wage. Yup. As of right now, Russell Branyan is Jack Zduriencik's version of Bret Boone. . . === GIVE IT UP FOR CAPT JACK Dept. === We saw an amigo wonder, on a major baseball site, how in the world ANYbody could have overlooked Russ Branyan ... When the right question is, how in the world did EVERYbody overlook Russ Branyan. Now, notice that this particular amigo, after Jack Cust hit his first ten home runs, wrote "they'll start throwing him curve balls and he'll be back in the minors in two months." The reason that people "overlooked" Russell Branyan wasn't laziness, and wasn't lack of ability to scout, and wasn't assumption. They thought that they had identified specific and fatal holes in his strike zone, a la Brad Wilkerson. Perhaps earlier in Branyan's career, this was in fact true. Three True Outcomes hitters often DO look like they have fatal flaws. They fan 200 times a year -- at least in bursts, for stretches of times -- and those K's aren't just occurring because the guys take pitches. They can miss pitches. ........................ The first couple of games we saw Branyan play in ST, we were blown away at the guy's sheer hitting ability. (PWR is ability to hit for distance; HIT is the ability to cover the baseball and hit for consistency.) Russell Branyan covered the plate far, far better than we expected to see -- the man can cover jam pitches in a way that Jeff Clement can only dream about; he can let the ball get very deep in the zone and then drive it with authority to left; he can keep his hands back on offspeed, because he doesn't cheat much; at 33, he reads pitches. If he didn't loft his swing he could STILL hit well as a doubles guy. Branyan is 2 legit 2 quit. .......................... Obviously, Jack Zduriencik saw this in Milwaukee. That was the key. Jack Zduriencik was just about the only man in the world who knew that Russell Branyan could *hit.* It wasn't the numbers. It was Jack Zduriencik being a baseball man. NOBODY shares credit with Capt. Jack. Especially Dr. D :- ) who has clamored for Branyan for 3 years. We all thought Branyan was a good VALUE. Capt. Jack thought he was a good PLAYER. We all THOUGHT Russell Branyan could probably hit RIGHTIES well over a season. Capt Jack REALIZED that Russell Branyan was a major league MOTO hitter. ........................ Let's give it up for Gillick, while we're at it. Redux'ing The Boone is great, but Capt Jack would have about eight Arthur Rhodeses and John Oleruds to go before pulling off a Gillick 14-for-17 sequence. Have never understood how a man could take over four (4) different clubs, turn every blinkin' one of 'em into monsters, and get sabr credit only for being a shlub. His latest rock: the idiocy of signing Raul Ibanez for about four times too much money. Stats are backwards-looking, amigos... hey. We digress. :- ) === 3 / $27M, WE'RE GUESSIN' Dept. === The third year being a club option. At least in Dr. D's dream world. It is HUUGE that Branyan defeats the park. That's a bonus completely aside from the fact that Branyan is a legit MOTO hitter anywhere -- issue #2 is that he's a glorious match for Safeco. In Safeco, he projects to be about as valuable as a Prince Fielder or Adam Dunn would, over the next few years. Bret Boone gave Pat Gillick three big years. Russell Branyan will probably do about the same. Congrats. Capt Jack scored Bret Boone 2.0. Sign the guy up, give 'im his 3/$27, and move on to the other 24 problemos. :- ) Cheers, Dr D