Trade Adrian Beltre Right Now

... well, the moment that somebody coughs up a young player that you think you can win your next pennant with. :- )

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Sandy points out that the Brad Nelson signing could improve positioning unto an Adrian Beltre trade:

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In checking out his fielding stats from baseball cube, it seems that he's played 25 games at 3B during '07 and '08.

This could be a precursor move to trading Beltre.

Beltre has a resume that makes him a perfect candidate for a change-of-scenery rebirth. But, who plays third?

Well, the concept of moving Branyan over to 3B is the most obvious move. But, if you trade away Beltre, regardless of who you move around to cover third, you create a vacuum somewhere else.

Trade Beltre -- bring up Carp to play 1B, Branyan moves to 3B.

But, what's the fall-back if Carp cannot handle major league pitching? A good GM is thinking three moves ahead. Nelson is a pick up that can plug a hole BEFORE you make that hole. That concept of "if you can't get the job done -- then maybe HE can ..." is a major change from the Bavasi era...

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If you became an Assistant to the Regional Manager on Royal Brougham, one of the "invisible laws" that would surprise you is: GM's spend a lot of time thinking about their stoploss.

It's all too easy for them to get caught out with 7.50-ERA starting pitchers doing a carousel through the #4-5 slots, or with a .142-hitting shortstop and no way to plug the dike, or with an injury at catcher and nobody who can call a major league game, or with an injury during the game and Jamie Burke having to play shortstop. :- ) GM's have to make sure that the ballclub isn't EMBARRASSED on Friday night, before they try to make sure they have a chance to win...

As Sandy notes, Zduriencik's ML-ready options are proliferating like tribbles. From the chessplayer's standpoint, options are power.

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Tuiasosopo would absolutely have been the man into Beltre's position; the Mariners actually kept Tui on the 25-man roster even to start THIS season. But now, you need a stoploss, a placeholder. Here's hoping that Nelson fits into a Beltre trade scenario.

=== Fenway or Wrigley?, Dept. ===

If you haven't realized that Adrian Beltre has been killing the ballclub in 2009, then perhaps you're too infatuated with pretty defense. ;- )

Beltre is hitting .211/.242/.316 -- a 47 OPS+.

Willie Bloomquist's career line is much better than that: .267/.327/.330. Exactly how many games would you expect to win, with Willie hitting cleanup and playing third base?

We don't know what Beltre WILL do. What he HAS done, for the first 1/4 of the season, is provide the Mariners with a pitcher-like* hitting line in the cleanup spot.

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Again, Safeco drags RH hitters down over time.

748 - Beltre's OPS on the road, this season

327 - Beltre's OPS at home, this season

I've seen Beltre hit rope after Safeco rope that hung up for the left fielder. It happens about once a game. And as it does with almost all RH hitters in this town, he starts to press.

6:28 -- Beltre's eye ratio this season

50:90 -- Beltre's eye ratio last season

Adrian is flailing away, trying to hit the ball hard enough to find some grass or some seats, and he cannot do it. You need to get him out of here, and you need to get him out of here AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

=== Fish Or Cut Bait, Dept. ===

It would be one thing if you planned on keeping Beltre for the next five years. But you don't. You don't want to know what the next numbers in Beltre's hitting sequences are.

Every time I read something from a different city, I read about what an awesome player Beltre is, and wow, if only we could trade for him. In some other park -- Wrigley or even Fenway -- there's no telling how much better Adrian would look. And other cities are WELLLLLL aware of this.

By the way, b-ref.com's formulas have Cubbie HOF'er Ron Santo as Adrian Beltre's most-comparable player :- ) and the Cubs need a third baseman.

.................

Zduriencik, admirably, was willing to powerflush J.J. Putz in a heartbeat. When he got the player he wanted to build around (Gutierrez). We're (fairly) confident that if and when Zduriencik gets a player he thinks he can win his next pennant with, that he'll deal Beltre.

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James recently compared Beltre to Brooks Robinson. Huh!

That puts a new light on things. But Brooks couldn't have played in Safeco, either.

Cheers,

Dr D

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Yeah...Beltre is the guy that needs to move...

The only way i can think of to get two more lefties into the lin-ep is to move Branyan to third, call up Carp (or Nelson or even LaHair) and find a lefty hitting outfielder to trade Balentien for. Beltre is definitely pressing this year...we need to move him before we lose him as a type B free agent (and he would be a type B if he doesn't have a good 2009)

Good points

I just did a quick re-set on what JZ hauled in for JJP and throw-ins:

CF Guttierez (the only RH bat in the original deal)

Increasingly interesting LH bat Carp (.981 OPS at AAA; 26 BBs, 20 xbh)

Increasingly interesting LH OF Eziquel Carrera (30 walks in 122 AB in AA; even if he's just a role player, which he is, he's a LH role player who can get on base)

Plus useful role players Chavez, Vargas (and I still put him in that category) and Cedeno; and Cleto who could be who knows what.

I know Doc didn't like the "quantity" approach, but if JZ is going to snag a couple of "sleeper" bats (and LH ones at that) in every deal, then go for it.

Matt, I don't know why you'd trade Wlad for a lefty OF at this point, when Saunders is tearing up RHP at AAA. I'd try to keep them both.

And, oh yeah, I've been an Ackley proponent all along. 2B is just a big ripe cherry on top, to me.

Ya Spec

As a general principle I don't like to give up the best player in the deal, true...

But if the quantity is a spaghetti-against-the-wall approach, in which you expect to get two impact players out of seven prospects, sure...

When to order spaghetti

I can appreciate the "get the best player" position. It's a foundation block in almost any fantasy setting. And there are times when it applies in the real world. But, there are times it shouldn't, and the trick is in identifying when it applies and doesn't.

Part of the reason "best player" is critical in fantasy games is because of the waiver wire. In 99% of leagues, the quantity and players on the wire is massive, and the quality is still WAY above replacement level. In a fantasy league, some percentage of starters are on the wire, and backups are literally worthless. But, in the real world, the WORST full-time starter in the majors is better than the vast majority of backups available - and likely tons better than the guy you've got on the farm, (otherwise, he wouldn't still be on the farm).

So, when do you trade "best player" for spaghetti? When you realize your cupboard is unforgiveably bare. The last major move of Bavasi was to dump 5 players for a "best player". The cupboard was bare and there was little reason to believe Seattle would be immediately competitive. When your roster is filled with players that are productive and under contract and have futures, and you have a surplus of talent on the farm - THEN is a good time to swap spaghetti for "best player". But, in the MLB, gathering spaghetti is the best, fastest, easiest, and lowest risk avenue for rebuilding. The inate risk of "best player" is a SINGLE injury can render a single best player worthless. When you gather 4 or 6 or 10 prospects, the uncertainty factor climbs, but the risk of ALL of the prospects flopping is drastically lower.

As it stands, Putz seems to be a pale imitation of the "best player" that everyone feared losing. He's already walked 12 (in 23 innings), after walking only 13 in both '06 and '07 (over 70 innings both seasons). If F-Gut works out as a meh offensive, but sterling defensive CF, the deal is a draw. If *ANY* of the other bodies becomes even remotely valuable, it's a net gain for the team.

In addition, as Z gathers more and more near-ready players, his options for trading for need steadily increase. The farm has ZERO middle infield help on the horizon. One of the avenues of doing something about that situation is to overstock yourself where you're already doing well. You got some OF depth - get EXCESSIVE OF depth, and then you can trade some of it for MI help. Part of the game is overloading yourself, so you become an OBVIOUS place for other clubs to turn to fill their needs.

If a team has ONE major commodity, the asking price gets steeper and steeper, because if they trade him, they don't have him anymore. So, lots of trades aren't even asked about. But, the ideal win-win situation is if Seattle is overloaded with 1Bs or OFs, and some other club is hip deep in MI prospects, then both clubs might be willing to deal without having to worry about the stoploss.

In both of my OOTP leagues, I made a habit of always asking for one more meh spec once the basic parts of a deal were set. I'd look where I had BAD specs, and where the competition might have some depth. But, I'd be asking for B and C options - not guys "likely" to ever move up - just guys that would make my farm a tad better - and also to play that spaghetti game, and hope that one extra strand I asked for enough times eventually turned into that surprise exploding nobody.

Wlad

Wlad is hitting well right now, but Saunders is not the kind of left handed bat I had in mind. What the Mariners exactly do NOT need is another low power high contact medium speed, low to moderate discipline low ceiling role player. We have about 793 trillion of them.

Even though he's left handed, he's not a player I build around. I want a lefty THUMPER in left field.

Are you thinking of the right Saunders?

Because the one in the Mariner system is no Endy Chavez clone. He's a big, 6'4", 205 pound TTO hitter with serious power potential. He's currently hitting .311/.400/.639 in Triple-A at the age of 22 despite missing the spring and the beginning of the season due to injury. What part of that line don't you like? He's actually the perfect player for Safeco.

I'm thinking of this Saunders

The one who has never hit more than 15 HR and 41 XBH in a season (and that was back in A+ ball)...the one whose minor league K/BB is 422 to 188, the one who, at age 22 (granted, he still has time to fill out) has never been taken seriously by BA or any other scouting org as more than a 4th outfielder.

That Mike Saunders

No, he's no Endy Chavez...but he's an aggressive not particularly intelligent (as evident by his bad CS% and sub par K/BB) hitter with medium power at the outside and his high-ish OPS totals have more commonly been driven by high BABIP (which goes away when you step up from the minors to the majors) until the 2009 season.

I'm not buying it...not until he sends some signal that he's actually learning as he progresses.

Saunders

First of all, let's be clear what his skill set is. He is absolutely NOT a contact hitter as you claimed (as evidenced by the kigh K rate you mention). He is the opposite- a big guy who is looking to cream the ball as opposed to merely putting it into play. Furthermore, neither BA or Jason Churchill for that matter consider him merely a fourth outfielder. Both of them view him as starter material. Toolswise he is perfectly capable of hitting 30 homers.

Second, he has been showing significant improvement despite being advanced quickly. At age 19 in low-A ball, he had an ISO just over .100. The next year in hi-A, his ISO jumped to .174. The following season in Double-A, in a more pitcher friendly park and league, it climbed to .196. This year, he went nuts and hit 5 home runs in his first 6 games back from injury and his ISO is over .300.

The issue with Saunders is not one of upside. It's simply a matter of whether he will make enough contact to reach that upside. Considering his age, talent and batting approach, his eye ratio has been fine the last few years so he's not in a high risk category like, say, Greg Halman. He actually reminds me a lot of Jason Bay, not only in terms of his size and skillset, but also the fact that he is Canadian. There's a theory that baseball players from colder climates develop later than normal because they can't play year round in high school. Bay wasn't a big time prospect before he exploded at the age of 24 (he was rated lower by BA just before he broke into the majors than Saunders is now) and Michael seems to be following a similiar path, except that he has reached Triple-A a full two years ahead of Bay.

More Saunders

Papa made one of the points I was going to: Saunders is a cold-climate, multi-sport guy (hockey, lacrosse, hoops, even soccer), not a year-round baseball-only guy. Tui is in that class as well.

The fact that he's performing as well as he is at 22 at AAA, despite the flaws, shows what a gifted athlete he is. The fact that he doesn't "get it" completely yet is pretty normal for his situation.

Many of Matt's points are valid: he may never be more than a doubles hitter who strikes out a lot (I think I once said he might be a "two-and-a-half outcomes" hitter).

And, yes, the reality is we shouldn't expect him to help much at the MLB level until he's more like 24 or 25. But to just dump him into the "4th outfielder" category at this point is wrong. He could be that, but he easily could turn out to be an everyday OF with decent power from the left side. From what he's showing at AAA, I would lean to the latter.

The mistake is to think that he won't need more AAA polishing (and I've fallen into that trap, too).

The contact issue

I may have been unclear. I was not claiming he was a YuBet style preternaturally gifted contact hitter...I tried to make that clear when I commented directly on his BABIP, which has been running unusually high for a high K blah K/BB medium power (not high LD) lefty playing at Cheney. He's a hitter in the minors who has more commonly relied on BABIP than any particular skill that we could expect to translate to the big leagues. I.e. his high batting averages are helping his OPS+ and that will not continue in the bigs.

I am trying to warn you all that we need a lefty bopper NOW...and Saunders is not a lefty bopper NOW.

Of course...

...we could use a premier slugger right now. But that was true before the season, last season, the year before that, the year before that, et cetera et cetera. No one would dispute that. There isn't a person here who thinks it isn't a good idea to get a big time lefty bat. The issue then is what should be done if one of those guys isn't available this early in the season. Since we obviously don't have anyone in the system who fits that description now, we have to look more long term. So when you call Saunders a contact hitter, poo-poo his power potential, state that we have tons of other players just like him, claim that scouts only project him as a backup, and say that he isn't a player you would "build around", you clearly aren't just dismissing his ability to contribute this year. You think he will NEVER become starter material, let alone develop serious power. That's what we were addressing.

I'd like to point out that while someone like Saunders is likely to struggle in his first major league exposure, it shouldn't be taken for granted. Often times young hitters are called up and clobber the ball right away. That's the way it was with Jason Bay. I'm reminded of the situation the Dallas Cowboys were in a few years ago. They had Drew Bledsoe starting and a talented but unproven Tony Romo on the bench. Since the team was sputtering there was a debate about whether a change should be made mid-season. Many people pointed out that an inexperenced QB was certainly going to struggle at first so it probably wouldn't be worth it. While this was true, there are cases where a green QB like Tom Brady makes an immediate impact. Since a mediocre guy like Bledsoe wasn't going to lead any team to the playoffs let alone win the Super Bowl, my attitude was that you might as well roll the dice and put Romo in. Well, the Cowboys made the change and Romo was lights out from the get go. The M's are in a similiar position. The offense is so bad that it's hard to make a change and be worse off so you might as well bring up guys with potential instead of waiting around for a sure thing to fall into your lap.

Scouting and other comments

Find the BA report which PROJECTZS Saunders as a starter...doesn't say he has potential there or that is his CEILING but says he's likely to start...and I'll recant my comments about his being scouted as primarily a fourth outfielder with third outfielder upside.

As for power, I am not seeing compelling evidence that he has projectable power. What I see is a big strong guy who lacks the fundamentals to express even significant doubles power in the minor leagues until the very VERY short sample that is 2009. Yes...some MLB power hitters take off late, and yes as Saunders is a big guy, he could be one of those types...but most of those late bloomers don't start contributing the power until several years after they debut.

I'm not saying he's not worth investing time in...I'm saying he's not the guy you build your franchise around...he's a guy you have as one of many pieces of prospect spaghetti and if he pans out, WOOHOO. And the reason this matters in the context of this discussion was that someone here asked me why I would trade Wlad Balentien for a lefty hitter to help the ballclub in 2009 and shortly thereafter...and SUGGESTED that the answer was in AAA in the person of Mike Saunders. That's what I was responding to. I may be ballzac...but I like the idea of winning. NOW! And I see a team that with a few artful tweaks to the batting order can win a weak division. NOW! That's what I have my eyes on. Not a guy who might in 2013 be ready to hit 20 HRs from left field. In 2013, I'll care about Mike Saunders. Maybe 2012 if he plays his cards right. In 2009, I care about who we can get to play left field, hit left handed and sock 20 dingers.