You play two months to see what you have, two months to go get what you want, and two months to play for it all. -- Billy Beane

Our good bud' San-Ral has argued eloquently that the M's offense would have plenty 'nuff to back the pitching and glovework, if we'll just give it a chance...

A week or so back, counsel objected that although the OPS+ was low on the season, over the 14 days up to that point, it had rounded to about 100 for a two-week period.   Encouraging, we admit, but 'tis a bit like saying Yuniesky was slugging .405 on the season but .480 the last two weeks.  Doesn't everybody go up and down?

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The M's OPS+ stood at 82 after 33 games, which is 1/5 of the season.   The last 7 days, it has been back to 83.

To put that 83 number into perspective, consider that the Oakland A's had the worst offense of 2008 at 88 -- and their offense was considered an unbridled catastrophe.

Yeah, yeah, yeah --- of COURSE the Mariners' offense can play better than this.  The problem is that it CAN, and STILL be terrible.

Will cheerfully admit that the offense could right itself.  It has a ton of Latin hitters, born in warm weather.  Maybe three weeks from now, Griff and Beltre and Lopez will have gone on tears, maybe F-Goot will give Dr. D's caution Das Boot, maybe Balentien will establish himself as a young impact player, maybe Clement is juuuuusssssst about there, and the M's offense will take off.  It could happen.

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The mainframe tells me that -- over the first 1/5 of the season -- even when the offense does get some stats, it tends to be in clumps.  It doesn't do a lot of good when you score your runs like this:

9

0

1

9

3

As the M's did recently against the Angels and White Sox, or when you do this:

8

1

3

11

1

As the M's did in a sequence against the A's and Angels.  Your scoring average looks pretty good, but you lost 50% of the games before the other team ever came up to bat...

Over the first 33 games, the Mariners got shut out (or held to 1 run) ten different times.   Often by guys like Sidney Ponson and Derek Holland.

They were held to 2 runs another four times, meaning that in 43% of the games, the Mariners offense was locked down to 0-2 runs.  FORTY-THREE PERCENT!

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The fact is, these offensive lockdowns have eaten away at the ballclub's confidence.  Don Wakamatsu is doing a grrr-rrrreat job of keeping the troops in fighting trim, and the players obviously haven't given up yet.   But at some point, reality just sets in.

The season isn't lost, obviously.  But the lackluster offense is imperilling what could be a scintillating tour de force for this new administration.

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Dr. D has been watchin' hardball a long time ;- ) and he firmly believes that it just don't work that great to put backup centerfielders in left field and trust to fine defense.  You need a 3 hitter and a 4 hitter. 

The idea that you need middle-of-the-order bats in the middle of the order ain't my rule; I just report the news.   Do any of our rivals try to play without middle-of-the-order hitters like Kinsler, Hamilton, Holliday, Vlad & co.?

Dr. D also knows a 1983 Mariner offense when he sees one:  six solid hitters combined with three weak ones.

You think the expansion Mariners didn't have five or six solid hitters?  Check out the 1983 crew.  Five very legit bats, but a 79 team OPS+, and 102 losses.  We watched it loop 20 times before Lou got here.  :- )

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On TV tonight, Blowers started talking about "being able to make the moves" if the players on the field competed well enough to justify it.  I assume he is taking this cue from his bosses, and I'm delighted to hear it.

First up, dealing Adrian Beltre for a young, legitimate lefty bat.  Safeco and he don't get along.  Adrian Beltre has got to be worth a whale of a lot on the trade market, and you might as well get the offensive infusion in time for the new admin's splash season.

........................

This team is a lot more talented than the 1983 crew.  That's why it's worth modifying.  As Beane says, two months to see what you have, two months to go get what you want, and two months to play for it all.

My $0.02,

Dr D