Reliever with the #2: Satire or It Could Happen?

Spec writes,

There is a quantum leap of buzz about Tanner Scheppers rising all the way up to us at #2 after he went four innings of no-hit ball with 6 Ks in his independent league debut. (Churchill apparently has him pegged at #2 now.)

No doubt, IF HEALTHY, he is the one guy who stands out as a clear-cut #2 overall talent. Interested in your thoughts on one or both (with Vargas - jeff).

Love Jason's emphasis on the pre-majors analysis that he is such an expert with. Kudos to him for alerting us all to the possibility that Scheppers will be the next bonus-baby Mariner.

I 'm not SUPER interested in players outside the American League, so ... don't take me wrong please if I compare my own point of view to that of an imaginary GM.

I don't know if Jason agrees with me, but his point of view could be compared to that of a Roger Jongewaard or Bob Fontaine, gathering the information and building a "big board" out of it.

My interest (if not expertise) would be in collating that information, putting it in context, giving a global perspective on it and perhaps kibitzing on what specifics in the report that I like and don't...

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Scheppers' scouting report reminds a fair amount of Max Scherzer's, though he's got more Brandon Morrow's frame. I've seen the vids and internet breakdowns on him, but let's save that for a later POTD...

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What scares me is: supposing I asked you to DESIGN me a pitcher who was very likely to be drafted as a starter and then quickly converted to relief pitching by the Seattle Mariners. What would you put on the chalkboard?

1. Right hand pitcher

2. Hot fastball (30-30-30 types don't relieve)

3. Stress fracture, whoops, slightly trashed labrum in the shoulder a year ago

4. Indy league time off

5. Frail body, like Morrow

At least Scheppers doesn't have Type II. :- \

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Earlier, we put a sarcastic ironic poll up at Mariner Central: SATIRE OR IT COULD HAPPEN? The Mariners will use the #2 overall to draft a relief pitcher? The vote came in heavy on IT COULD HAPPEN...

If Tanner Scheppers were drafted #2 overall, I would expect 50% of the Mariners' employees to immediately begin arguing that he would be more effective in relief...

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Good relievers are valuable. But you have NO business spending top-10 overalls on them. It's like being given $3,000 to landscape, and spending it on a hot-rod hedge trimmer and trimming one hedge. Getting a relief pitcher is not an appropriate accomplishment with the #1 pick in baseball (Strasburg isn't a baseball pick; he's a George Plimpton novel).

It's like somebody made you Zac Efron, rich good-looking hip and the hottest guy in high school -- and then assigned you the task of scoring one shared lunch table with a 10th-grade math girl. Got it? Cool. Nice job. Back to Hollywood.

Drafting relievers with top-10 overall picks does not help the team. Relievers are the "CHANCE" slots on your Yahtzee card. You move dice rolls, er, pitchers there when something else doesn't work out. You don't roll four 6's and a 5 and go, oh hey, that's a 29 for Chance.

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For the sake of argument, if the Mariners were going to draft Tanner Scheppers with the firm resolve of getting him into Carlos Silva's old rotation slot ASAP, I'd be all for it.

POTD on Scheppers before long.

Cheers,

Dr D

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Zduriencik is not Bavasi

Wakamatsu is not McLaren

And the 2009 Mariners are not the 2008 Mariners in terms of how they use talent or make decisions. You need to stop comparing apples and oranges, so to speak, and making conclusions about what the Mariners would do with player X based on what happened with last year's relievers.

1) Morrow made his own decision. He put HIMSELF into relief...and his limited physical make-up may be proving that that was the right call. He's already hurt again.

2) Aumont, as you pointed out, is a mechanical nightmare, and fixing that isn't going to be a matter of a couple bullpen sessions and yay, you're a starter kid! Zduriencik did make that call, but it was the RIGHT call...Aumont's only chance to be successful in the big leagues is as a reliever, unless you want to see him get hurt (mechanical changes often lead to injuries even if they are intelligently motivated...just ask Austin Bibens-Dirkx) or spend two years trying to learn a motionn different from the one that got him drafted.

3) We've seen no other evidence of what the Mariners would do with a young fireballer than that...2009's Ms are not 2008's Ms...all other examples are completely irrelevant now.

Thanks from Spectator

Appreciate the analysis, as usual, Doc.

And just noting Churchill's answer in the comments to the same issue:

"I don't think Jack and Mac take Scheppers at No. 2 if they had serious doubts about his future role as a starter."

That comports with my own view that after the Morrow and Aumont decisions if they pick an arm in that spot, it will be someone they expect to start. And Scheppers has the top-of-the-draft stuff that Alex White seems to not quite have.

And I myself am comfortable with Dustin Ackley even if it's only a small chance that he ends up as John Olerud sent through "The Fly's" metamorposis machine and emerging as a speedy center fielder, and even if his power spike is a metal-bat illusion. His downside is a corner guy who walks a ton and rakes doubles, and he could be a lot more. I don't see much better at that spot if one is not sold on Scheppers.