What's a #20 overall worth? Not much

Ah! Now I get it. Josh Fields was a dumb signing because we didn't WANT him signed. My bad. Usually I'm not quite THAT slow on the uptake ;- ) but I whiffed on that one like ARod on an October slider. The reasons for this displeasure, as far as I can tell, are two: 1. The punk doesn't deserve anything but to be doused with lighter fluid and handed a couple of sparklers. 2. Now we're going to miss out on a #22 overall which could have been used to select Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester, Vlad Guerrero or somebody like that. .................. I'm not going to be able to help you with #1, but I can help you with #2 just by listing a few recent first rounds. The top 10 are clipped to help y'all see straight. You good buddies think of a #22 as being a probable #3 hitter. I think of it as being a probable never-makes-the-majors. Which is why I'm glad to get, instead, a guy who WILL make the majors.

Skipping 2007 and 2008 'cause it's too early to tell, here are the last three first rounds before that. Guys with their names underlined have ML hyperlinks at b-ref.com. The others have not yet made the majors, 3-5 years after being drafted in the 1st round 2006 1 11 FrRnd 11 D'backs Maxwell Scherzer 2006 1 12 FrRnd 12 Rangers Kasey Kiker 2006 1 13 FrRnd 13 Cubs Tyler Colvin OF | 2006 1 14 FrRnd 14 Blue Jays Travis Snider OF | 2006 1 15 FrRnd 15 Nationals Christopher Marrero OF | 2006 1 16 FrRnd 16 Brewers Jeremy Jeffress RHP| 2006 1 17 FrRnd 17 Padres Matthew Antonelli 3B | 2006 1 18 FrRnd 18 Phillies Kyle Drabek RHP| 2006 1 19 FrRnd 19 Marlins Brett Sinkbeil RHP| | 2006 1 20 FrRnd 20 Twins Christopher Parmelee OF | 2006 1 21 FrRnd 21 Yankees Ian Kennedy RHP| 2006 1 22 FrRnd 22 Nationals Colton Willems RHP| 2006 1 23 FrRnd 23 Astros Maxwell Sapp C | | 2006 1 24 FrRnd 24 Braves John Johnson OF | 2006 1 25 FrRnd 25 Angels Hyun Choi Conger C | | 2006 1 26 FrRnd 26 Dodgers Avery Morris RHP| 2006 1 27 FrRnd 27 RedSox Jason Place OF | 2006 1 28 FrRnd 28 RedSox Daniel Bard RHP| | 2006 1 29 FrRnd 29 WhiteSox Kyle McCulloch RHP| | 2006 1 30 FrRnd 30 Cardinals Adam Ottavino RHP| | 2005 1 11 FrRnd 11 Pirates Andrew McCutchen OF | 2005 1 12 FrRnd 12 Reds Jay Bruce OF | | 2005 1 13 FrRnd 13 Orioles Brandon Snyder C | 2005 1 14 FrRnd 14 Indians Trevor Crowe OF | 2005 1 15 FrRnd 15 WhiteSox Lance Broadway RHP| 2005 1 16 FrRnd 16 Marlins Christopher Volstad RHP| 2005 1 17 FrRnd 17 Yankees Carl Henry SS | 2005 1 18 FrRnd 18 Padres Cesar Carrillo RHP| 2005 1 19 FrRnd 19 Rangers John Mayberry OF | 2005 1 20 FrRnd 20 Cubs Mark Pawelek LHP| | 2005 1 21 FrRnd 21 Athletics Clifton Pennington SS | 2005 1 22 FrRnd 22 Marlins Aaron Thompson LHP| 2005 1 23 FrRnd 23 RedSox Jacoby Ellsbury OF | 670 12 .759 2005 1 24 FrRnd 24 Astros Brian Bogusevic LHP| 2005 1 25 FrRnd 25 Twins Matt Garza RHP| 6 0 . 2005 1 26 FrRnd 26 RedSox Craig Hansen RHP| 2005 1 27 FrRnd 27 Braves Joey Devine RHP| 1 0 .000 0| 7-2 2.48 1 2005 1 28 FrRnd 28 Cardinals Colby Rasmus OF | 2005 1 29 FrRnd 29 Marlins Jacob Marceaux RHP| 2005 1 30 FrRnd 30 Cardinals James Greene SS | 2004 1 11 FrRnd 11 Pirates Neil Walker C 2004 1 12 FrRnd 12 Angels Jered Weaver RHP| 2004 1 13 FrRnd 13 Nationals Bill Bray LHP| 2004 1 14 FrRnd 14 Royals Billy Butler 3B | 2004 1 15 FrRnd 15 D'backs Stephen Drew SS | 2004 1 16 FrRnd 16 Blue Jays David Purcey LHP| 2004 1 17 FrRnd 17 Dodgers Timothy Elbert LHP| 2004 1 18 FrRnd 18 WhiteSox Josh Fields 3B | 425 2004 1 19 FrRnd 19 Cardinals Christopher Lambert RHP| 2004 1 20 FrRnd 20 Twins Trevor Plouffe SS | | 2004 1 21 FrRnd 21 Phillies Gregory Golson OF | | 2004 1 22 FrRnd 22 Twins Glen Perkins LHP| 3 0 .000 2004 1 23 FrRnd 23 Yankees Philip Hughes RHP| 2004 1 24 FrRnd 24 Athletics Landon Powell C 2004 1 25 FrRnd 25 Twins Steven Waldrop RHP| 2004 1 26 FrRnd 26 Athletics Richard Robnett OF | 2004 1 27 FrRnd 27 Marlins Taylor Tankersley LHP| 2004 1 28 FrRnd 28 Dodgers Blake Dewitt 2B | | 2004 1 29 FrRnd 29 Royals Matthew Campbell lHP| 2004 1 30 FrRnd 30 Rangers Eric Hurley RHP| | .............................. You can get a quality ML player at the #22; it just that you're much more likely not to. And if you do, you're a lot more likely to get Glen Perkins than Matt Cain. That's 60 players up there. How many ML All-Stars, do you figure? If Josh Fields becomes an impact reliever, he'll be one of the 4-5 best players taken out of last year's #11-45 picks. And he probably WILL become an impact reliever. Josh Fields is a tremendous Moneyball draft pick. The Mariners were NOT going to do that well with this year's #22, not unless they rolled box cars. ................................... Of course, I'm not saying that I wouldn't want to try my hand at five 1st-rounders. :- ) I'm just talking about the idea that, hey, even if Fields were going to save 30 games, I'd rather have a draft pick. Cheers, Dr D

Printer-friendly version

Categories:

Other

Replies

While I was on another page

While I was on another page in regards to breaking the bank for Strausburg, I'm generally with you on Fields, Doc.

Honestly, the reality in all of this that I think most of the blog-o-sphere has simply ignored is that the Ms have had THREE GMs between the Fields pick and today. I think the bloggers impatience with the organization, (caused by a lot of different items during the Bavasi era), was ARBITRARILY passed on to his successor.

I'm sorry - but transistions TAKE TIME. Okay - if I jump into a sim league, I can spend a day or two examining my roster, everyone else's roster, and then start trying to make deals. But, I do NOT have 150 *PEOPLE* in my organization to manage, (excluding the actual players). And, even in a sim league, they have no experience dealing with me (or vice versa). Some personalities will INTENTIONALLY push the limits of reasonable to the extreme, just to get a read on how savvy the newbie might be.

Whether true or not - I suspect that the rumored Washburn deal in 2008 was nixed because of the "perception" that they were trying to take advantage of a newbie GM, (or that he was attempting to send a clear message that he wouldn't take any lowball trade that was offered). The guys in the actual jobs HAVE to think of the ramifications of this deal on future deals. And if you manage to anger a GM enough, it CAN get personal, and you can end up hurting your own best interests for the future. (Atlanta seems to be REALLY upset with the Furcal situation - feeling that had a done-deal, and then seeing him run back to LA. This could have any number of negative impacts on future dealings with Atlanta).

As for the Fields situation, I think the interim GM was simply too much a deer caught in headlights, unable to make ANY deal for fear of making one deemed a mistake.

I think Z took a perfectly reasonable response to the situation -- take some time -- see how the club was coming together -- see what the financial situation was looking like -- look at the most likely possibilities for the 2009 draft pick slot, and then make his choice. He did not NEED to make the choice any sooner. By the time he came on board, it wasn't going to help him or the Ms in any significant way to sign Fields, (and I doubt seriously if Boras was going to back down one iota without taking some time to size up Z, either).

Ultimately, I think given the economy, the relative positions, et al, if I had to guess what happened, I would expect some sort of compromise, (possibly incentive-based), where the Ms almost certainly didn't cave on the direct signing bonus, but perhaps added an "easy" incentive clause, (an extra 500k if Fields pitches 50 innings total in the majors by the end of the 2010 season).

At the time Z comes in, he likely needs to do "something" to allow Boras to save some face with his client. He also needs to try and appease upper management in regards to at least acknowledging their reluctance to break the draft slot pay grades. I imagine that Z has told them that while draft slot pay is beneficial in the abstract, absolutism can lead to even worse outcomes.

The invective for Fields (and Boras) is mostly derived from impatience and frustration with the Bavasi regime, which has to be transferred somewhere, because Bavasi isn't here to kick around anymore.

As for directing the angst and ire at Fields -- that makes no sense whatsoever. He hired Boras, the best agent in the game, (which most of us would do, if we were in the same position). He's taking his agent's advice. Duh! If you're gonna hand over 20% of your money to someone, then it seems pretty basic that you kind of expect them to advise you to your benefit. If you hire Barry Bonds to hit HRs for you - you don't tell him not to wear his armor to the plate "because it doesn't match the team colors." If you do that - then you really are an idiot.

If you want to hate Boras, fine go ahead. I don't like the man, either -- but he DOES what he is paid to do -- get his clients more money, (usually a LOT more money), then they would get without him. But I for one, am not going to be hating on the young kid, who hired the best agent out there for taking the adivce he is paying for.

And I'm not going to be hating on Z for signing the kid, when he's just doing his best to clean up the mess left behind by the frat party that just left the building.