What's a #20 overall worth? Not much

Ah! Now I get it. Josh Fields was a dumb signing because we didn't WANT him signed. My bad. Usually I'm not quite THAT slow on the uptake ;- ) but I whiffed on that one like ARod on an October slider.

The reasons for this displeasure, as far as I can tell, are two:

1. The punk doesn't deserve anything but to be doused with lighter fluid and handed a couple of sparklers.

2. Now we're going to miss out on a #22 overall which could have been used to select Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester, Vlad Guerrero or somebody like that.

..................

I'm not going to be able to help you with #1, but I can help you with #2 just by listing a few recent first rounds.

The top 10 are clipped to help y'all see straight. You good buddies think of a #22 as being a probable #3 hitter. I think of it as being a probable never-makes-the-majors. Which is why I'm glad to get, instead, a guy who WILL make the majors.

Skipping 2007 and 2008 'cause it's too early to tell, here are the last three first rounds before that. Guys with their names underlined have ML hyperlinks at b-ref.com. The others have not yet made the majors, 3-5 years after being drafted in the 1st round

2006   1        11 FrRnd    11 D'backs   Maxwell Scherzer
2006   1        12 FrRnd    12 Rangers   Kasey Kiker
2006   1        13 FrRnd    13 Cubs      Tyler Colvin         OF |
2006   1        14 FrRnd    14 Blue Jays Travis Snider        OF |
2006   1        15 FrRnd    15 Nationals Christopher Marrero OF |
2006   1        16 FrRnd    16 Brewers   Jeremy Jeffress      RHP|
2006   1        17 FrRnd    17 Padres    Matthew Antonelli    3B |
2006   1        18 FrRnd    18 Phillies Kyle Drabek          RHP|
2006   1        19 FrRnd    19 Marlins   Brett Sinkbeil       RHP|                   |
2006   1        20 FrRnd    20 Twins     Christopher Parmelee OF |
2006   1        21 FrRnd    21 Yankees   Ian Kennedy          RHP|
2006   1        22 FrRnd    22 Nationals Colton Willems       RHP|
2006   1        23 FrRnd    23 Astros    Maxwell Sapp         C |                   |
2006   1        24 FrRnd    24 Braves    John Johnson         OF |
2006   1        25 FrRnd    25 Angels    Hyun Choi Conger     C |                   |
2006   1        26 FrRnd    26 Dodgers   Avery Morris         RHP|
2006   1        27 FrRnd    27 RedSox    Jason Place          OF |

2006   1        28 FrRnd    28 RedSox    Daniel Bard          RHP|                   |
2006   1        29 FrRnd    29 WhiteSox Kyle McCulloch       RHP|                   |
2006   1        30 FrRnd    30 Cardinals Adam Ottavino        RHP|                   |

2005   1        11 FrRnd    11 Pirates   Andrew McCutchen     OF |
2005   1        12 FrRnd    12 Reds      Jay Bruce            OF |                   |
2005   1        13 FrRnd    13 Orioles   Brandon Snyder       C |
2005   1        14 FrRnd    14 Indians   Trevor Crowe         OF |
2005   1        15 FrRnd    15 WhiteSox Lance Broadway       RHP|
2005   1        16 FrRnd    16 Marlins   Christopher Volstad RHP|
2005   1        17 FrRnd    17 Yankees   Carl Henry           SS |
2005   1        18 FrRnd    18 Padres    Cesar Carrillo       RHP|
2005   1        19 FrRnd    19 Rangers   John Mayberry        OF |
2005   1        20 FrRnd    20 Cubs      Mark Pawelek         LHP|                   |
2005   1        21 FrRnd    21 Athletics Clifton Pennington   SS |
2005   1        22 FrRnd    22 Marlins   Aaron Thompson       LHP|
2005   1        23 FrRnd    23 RedSox    Jacoby Ellsbury      OF | 670 12 .759
2005   1        24 FrRnd    24 Astros    Brian Bogusevic      LHP|
2005   1        25 FrRnd    25 Twins     Matt Garza           RHP|   6   0 .
2005   1        26 FrRnd    26 RedSox    Craig Hansen         RHP|
2005   1        27 FrRnd    27 Braves    Joey Devine          RHP|   1   0 .000    0| 7-2   2.48 1
2005   1        28 FrRnd    28 Cardinals Colby Rasmus         OF |
2005   1        29 FrRnd    29 Marlins   Jacob Marceaux       RHP|
2005   1        30 FrRnd    30 Cardinals James Greene         SS |

2004   1        11 FrRnd    11 Pirates   Neil Walker          C
2004   1        12 FrRnd    12 Angels    Jered Weaver         RHP|
2004   1        13 FrRnd    13 Nationals Bill Bray            LHP|
2004   1        14 FrRnd    14 Royals    Billy Butler         3B |
2004   1        15 FrRnd    15 D'backs   Stephen Drew         SS |
2004   1        16 FrRnd    16 Blue Jays David Purcey         LHP|
2004   1        17 FrRnd    17 Dodgers   Timothy Elbert       LHP|
2004   1        18 FrRnd    18 WhiteSox Josh Fields          3B | 425
2004   1        19 FrRnd    19 Cardinals Christopher Lambert RHP|
2004   1        20 FrRnd    20 Twins     Trevor Plouffe       SS |                   |
2004   1        21 FrRnd    21 Phillies Gregory Golson       OF |                   |
2004   1        22 FrRnd    22 Twins     Glen Perkins         LHP|   3   0 .000
2004   1        23 FrRnd    23 Yankees   Philip Hughes        RHP|

2004   1        24 FrRnd    24 Athletics Landon Powell        C
2004   1        25 FrRnd    25 Twins     Steven Waldrop       RHP|

2004   1        26 FrRnd    26 Athletics Richard Robnett      OF |
2004   1        27 FrRnd    27 Marlins   Taylor Tankersley    LHP|
2004   1        28 FrRnd    28 Dodgers   Blake Dewitt         2B |                   |

2004   1        29 FrRnd    29 Royals    Matthew Campbell     lHP|

2004   1        30 FrRnd    30 Rangers   Eric Hurley          RHP|                   |

..............................

You can get a quality ML player at the #22; it just that you're much more likely not to. And if you do, you're a lot more likely to get Glen Perkins than Matt Cain.

That's 60 players up there. How many ML All-Stars, do you figure?

If Josh Fields becomes an impact reliever, he'll be one of the 4-5 best players taken out of last year's #11-45 picks. And he probably WILL become an impact reliever.

Josh Fields is a tremendous Moneyball draft pick. The Mariners were NOT going to do that well with this year's #22, not unless they rolled box cars.

...................................

Of course, I'm not saying that I wouldn't want to try my hand at five 1st-rounders. :- ) I'm just talking about the idea that, hey, even if Fields were going to save 30 games, I'd rather have a draft pick.

Cheers,

Dr D

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While I was on another page

While I was on another page in regards to breaking the bank for Strausburg, I'm generally with you on Fields, Doc.

Honestly, the reality in all of this that I think most of the blog-o-sphere has simply ignored is that the Ms have had THREE GMs between the Fields pick and today. I think the bloggers impatience with the organization, (caused by a lot of different items during the Bavasi era), was ARBITRARILY passed on to his successor.

I'm sorry - but transistions TAKE TIME. Okay - if I jump into a sim league, I can spend a day or two examining my roster, everyone else's roster, and then start trying to make deals. But, I do NOT have 150 *PEOPLE* in my organization to manage, (excluding the actual players). And, even in a sim league, they have no experience dealing with me (or vice versa). Some personalities will INTENTIONALLY push the limits of reasonable to the extreme, just to get a read on how savvy the newbie might be.

Whether true or not - I suspect that the rumored Washburn deal in 2008 was nixed because of the "perception" that they were trying to take advantage of a newbie GM, (or that he was attempting to send a clear message that he wouldn't take any lowball trade that was offered). The guys in the actual jobs HAVE to think of the ramifications of this deal on future deals. And if you manage to anger a GM enough, it CAN get personal, and you can end up hurting your own best interests for the future. (Atlanta seems to be REALLY upset with the Furcal situation - feeling that had a done-deal, and then seeing him run back to LA. This could have any number of negative impacts on future dealings with Atlanta).

As for the Fields situation, I think the interim GM was simply too much a deer caught in headlights, unable to make ANY deal for fear of making one deemed a mistake.

I think Z took a perfectly reasonable response to the situation -- take some time -- see how the club was coming together -- see what the financial situation was looking like -- look at the most likely possibilities for the 2009 draft pick slot, and then make his choice. He did not NEED to make the choice any sooner. By the time he came on board, it wasn't going to help him or the Ms in any significant way to sign Fields, (and I doubt seriously if Boras was going to back down one iota without taking some time to size up Z, either).

Ultimately, I think given the economy, the relative positions, et al, if I had to guess what happened, I would expect some sort of compromise, (possibly incentive-based), where the Ms almost certainly didn't cave on the direct signing bonus, but perhaps added an "easy" incentive clause, (an extra 500k if Fields pitches 50 innings total in the majors by the end of the 2010 season).

At the time Z comes in, he likely needs to do "something" to allow Boras to save some face with his client. He also needs to try and appease upper management in regards to at least acknowledging their reluctance to break the draft slot pay grades. I imagine that Z has told them that while draft slot pay is beneficial in the abstract, absolutism can lead to even worse outcomes.

The invective for Fields (and Boras) is mostly derived from impatience and frustration with the Bavasi regime, which has to be transferred somewhere, because Bavasi isn't here to kick around anymore.

As for directing the angst and ire at Fields -- that makes no sense whatsoever. He hired Boras, the best agent in the game, (which most of us would do, if we were in the same position). He's taking his agent's advice. Duh! If you're gonna hand over 20% of your money to someone, then it seems pretty basic that you kind of expect them to advise you to your benefit. If you hire Barry Bonds to hit HRs for you - you don't tell him not to wear his armor to the plate "because it doesn't match the team colors." If you do that - then you really are an idiot.

If you want to hate Boras, fine go ahead. I don't like the man, either -- but he DOES what he is paid to do -- get his clients more money, (usually a LOT more money), then they would get without him. But I for one, am not going to be hating on the young kid, who hired the best agent out there for taking the adivce he is paying for.

And I'm not going to be hating on Z for signing the kid, when he's just doing his best to clean up the mess left behind by the frat party that just left the building.