Sign Bedard Now, or in June?

At Mariner Central, the early returns were 91% in favor of signing Erik Bedard while it's such a buyer's market.

Several amigos didn't vote, though, wanting another poll option, that being this:

"Wait till he's into the season, throwing great, only three months from free agency, and then chisel him. That way we'll be able to underpay him, and he'll be grateful that we did."

I kid.

=== Six of One, Half-a-Dozen of the Other ===

But there's a reason we didn't put that one up. If you are I were Erik Bedard, and we were in that position -- leading the league in ERA* on June 15th, and ONLY THEN do the Mariners decide they want me -- would YOU give a hometown discount?

No, you wouldn't, and you're not a red-ears of the magnitude of Erik Bedard.

Check me if I'm wrong: wasn't that what Bedard did with the O's? Give them a chance to show him respect before it was the last minute, and when they hesitated, didn't he then say "Forget you" ?

I'll bet you dollahs to donuts that you could sign him now -- but if you wait until there's no risk* and send him the signal that you don't really trust him, but you'd like to exploit his talent all things going well -- you are going to hack this guy off.

You say, "well, that's okay. I didn't want him anyway." Fine. But I think you should realize that waiting to offer a contract is the SAME choice as "Let him walk, or get what you can in trade in July." What you get in trade may not be much, after you net out the draft pick(s) the Mariners would get in compensation for his walking as a free agent.

=== Is It Possible Anyway? ===

Geoff Baker made a very telling case that Seattle isn't Bedard's kind of city, and not his kind of organization. Lonnie agreed at MC:

The problem Doc is that Bedard is not Seattle's ace. He has no investment in the city and his only motivation to pick his game up is that he is in a contract year. Does he care enough?

About the city of Seattle? Probably not.

About performing well? Personally I think Bedard's a ferocious competitor, once he gets on the field, though before he gets on it he's cautious to make sure he's not risking a major injury...

I dunno. How vested are the immigrant Latin players in the city of Seattle? How vested is any Japanese player in the city as such?

Bedard gave Baltimore a fair chance to give him security.

Maybe the M's have the inside intel that there's no way they get Bedard, short of giving him a Sabiatha contract. If so, that's life. But I'd like to know what his response is, to a firm offer of a 4-year extension with a bunch of zeroes on the bonus check.

=== Anything You Do Can Get You Killed (or 100 Losses), Especially Doing Nothing ===

Sure it's a risk. So would have been Daisuke Matsuzaka. So are Sabathia, Burnett, and Beckett, and Schilling. But in this market, coming off a Steve Carlton 1973 season, I'll bet that you can get Erik Bedard for HALF of the total commitment that you'd need this winter:

$18.5m x 6 years = $111M -- December 2009, if Bedard's 17-7, 3.25 (MINIMUM)

$14m x 4 years = $56M -- what he'd take right now, I bet

$12-14m -- the least he'll wind up getting, even if he misses half a year

Now, opening discussions immediately, to conclude negotiations in May or June, is something the Mariners have historically been able to accomplish -- e.g. with Ichiro and Johjima, IIRC. It doesn't matter as much how long the contract takes to actually execute, as long as you give Bedard a winning smile and a nice offer right now. (Though if he gets on a serious roll, you're going to find the deal considerably tougher to close.)

=== It Ain't His JOB to Be NICE, Eh, You Hosers ===

The media of course loathes Bedard because he looks down on them and is a difficult interview (though Baker maintains a pretty reasonable objectivity). Most of cyber-Seattle wants to see the issue resolved in a way that is compatible with their initial opinion on the trade.

There's a business-sales book out there about a company owner who had a salesman who sold triple what everybody else did, and then took off early Friday to go golfing. The owner was about to fire the salesman. The consultant told him, "How about we get ten other salesmen who sell like that and then go golfing?"

How about we trade three more Adam Joneses, get three more starters who pitch like Erik Bedard, and then blow off the press after the games? How would that be?

I don't expect our NSA operatives to be as pleasant as my wife is. I just want them to be the bad guys' worst nightmares. The pleasant personalities are optional, if they're keeping the planes off the skyscrapers.

.............

Erik Bedard is a bit fragile, as have been Pedro Martinez, A.J. Burnett, the older David Cone, and a bunch of franchise SP. He doesn't want to pitch when his arm is too fatigued, which is nothing more than intelligence on his part. And he doesn't want to pitch when the game is a charade and his team doesn't care who wins.

But you put a healthy Erik Bedard on the mound in Game 7, when he's throwing right, and the other team is in huge trouble. This is the kind of pitcher that the Angels, Red Sox, and Yankees use to control the American League. Are the Mariners even interested in fighting to join that group, or are they comfortable acknowledging their status as one of the teams that the Big Dogs chew on?

...........

I'm a little biased. Erik Bedard is my kind of player. I just love the guy.

Cheers,

Dr D

..........

image: http://media.canada.com/idl/otct/20070207/55811-17620.jpg

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Hey when healthy he is one of

Hey when healthy he is one of the top pitcher in baseball and you can't just let him walk after the package we ghave up for him if he got an AJ Burnett Contract(he'll probably get 12 million a year though) but pitched like he did in 07 I wouldn't mind that much.

It would be nice to sign him

It would be nice to sign him before arbitration. That way he misses the "100 pitch wonder", "selfish", "not a team player" discussion at the arb hearing. I'd like to be debating which of Bedard, Felix, and Morrow are to be the opening day starter for the next several years, at least until Aumont also enters the discussion. I would call that hope for the future. Now, can we find some bats already?

Extend him. Honestly, as bad

Extend him.

Honestly, as bad as the market is it probably would cost even $14mil over 4 years.

Keep in mind his agent was asking for $14mil over 7 years as an "opening" offer last year.

$10-12mil over 3-4 years should do it.

"What you get in trade may

"What you get in trade may not be much, after you net out the draft pick(s) the Mariners would get in compensation for his walking as a free agent."

But what are the chances of getting compensation should Bedard walk? 4/6 stats that Elias use for ranking starters are 'counting' stats (Games, IP, Wins, K's), and 2.5/6 depend at least in part on the quality of your team mates (Wins, W%, ERA).
Playing 1.25 seasons for the 2008/09 M's is probably not the recipe for a Type A FA.

So - as you say - tell him you need him, butter him up, slip him a decent offer, if he signs it all well and good. If he doesn't take the deal - cross your fingers - hope he pitches like he did in Baltimore 2007 and try and get a decent prospect or two for him at the deadline.

Extend him at whatever he's

Extend him at whatever he's asking for. As far as I can tell, from ALL of his preliminary contract discussions, he comes off as eminently reasonable in the starting point.

He also strikes me as the kind of person who would tell you to take a hike if you tried chiseling him for $1-1.5mil/year.

Sign him for whatever he's asking. Give him Silva's contract plus a smidge and I think he'd go for it.

Given the uncertainty about

Given the uncertainty about his arm, he's not going to be asking for the mon. As others have said here...if he wants 4/56, I'm cool with that.

Ya, on second thought I

Ya, on second thought I wouldn't want to piss him off by giving him too low of an offer.

$13mil for 4 years? I've gotta think he would bite on that.

I'd go as high as 15 if he

I'd go as high as 15 if he wants to haggle. But yeah...the neighborhood of Burnett minus one year and shaved a little below his annual rate...that's what Bedard is worth.

I wonder which sensibility

I wonder which sensibility will win out regarding extending Bedard:

Mariners' image-conciousness (Ownership)
or
New and improved talent evaluation savy (Jack Z and Co)

The fact that they let Willie take his hustle and leadership to KC bodes well.

Here's hopin!

I would certainly hope that

I would certainly hope that Jack has the people skills to convince Erik that the M's believe he is talented, competitive, and a key component of the club that has it's sights on a World Series. I would focus on the things that are important to Erik (maybe financial security, club with a world championship as it's focus, some perks to make the Ottawa distance less of an issue, respect). It makes no sense to wait to extend him if the M's believe the assessment above is true. Anything less undercuts your belief in Erik and his abilities.