One of our best buds, and one of the best analysts 'round here, would like to offer the opinion that Carp's performance has been better than I think it has been.

As you know, we don't split out this comparison in order to emphasize the "tale of the tape" between analysts. We split it out because we have a boss these days who counts articles :- ) and because this particular article is ... well, as legit as any others we tackle. For what that's worth. LOL.

Anyway, Let's! go To! the VID! e-o TAPE! How would you compare these two bushers?

When you state: Michael Saunders minor league performance: “has been considerably better than Carp’s”, it is not completely true. Saunders has a career .798 minor league OPS, to Carp’s .811. By STRAIGHT numbers, the comparison is:

.274/.371/.440/.811 - Carp

.274/.362/.436/.798 - Saunders

Not a completely fair comparison - since Saunders career line is pulled down by a 95-AB AAA line of .708, and Carp hasn’t touched AAA yet. But, ASIDE from age, there’s no footing whatsoever for the assessment that Saunders has been “considerably better”.

1. If Carp has been as good as Saunders, performance-wise, then he was a much better addition than I thought.

Hope that you’re right amigo - of that rest assured :- )

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2. I guess I'll need more info as to why Carp's performance would be viewed as comparable to Saunders'.

Granted, Sandy says, "Aside from age...." but to that we can confidently say, HUH?!  Is there a motion on the floor to disregard age when evaluating minor leaguers?  :- )   I doubt it would be seconded...

Saunders has a career .798 minor league OPS, to Carp’s .811. By STRAIGHT numbers, the comparison is:

.274/.371/.440/.811 - Carp

.274/.362/.436/.798 - Saunders

... [and to be fair, Sandy does go on to explicitly note that he knows the career line isn't the *whole* story. - Dr D]

:blinks:

I think we're launching a new sabr method here, comparing minors careers lines ... ;- )

We agree that it's not the whole story; where we differ is whether it's any appropriate part of the story, I guess. Can you compare career lines between minor leaguers as any sort of enlightening point from which to start? Not sure you can...

.

=== Apples to Apples Dept. ===

Of course we all know that apples-to-apples is the way to comp out minor-leaguers. Let me suggest that the starting point for doing so is the age-of-arrival, and performance, in the higher minors (that's AA and/or AAA). If you don't know anything else about a player, ask when he got to AA/AAA, and what he did there.

We can get a bead on Carp's and Saunders' respective developments, by comparing their age-of-arrival at AA, and how they did there. (Both were hitting in neutral parks; Carp's park was a bit more hitter-friendly than Saunders'.)

Carp at 21 years of age flunked out of AA ball -- that's a bit 'arsh, lads, but still. Carp repeated the AA level at 22, and when *repeating* the same league (facing many of the same pitchers, in the same parks) hit [ = somewhat above-league-average plus 30 walks].

This puts Carp a solid 2+ years behind "Grade A" benchmark: to be a Grade A prospect, you should be one of the 10 or 20 best players in your AA league, at age 20.

Carp, at 22, repeated the Eastern League, and was above-average -- definitely not "one of the best" players in the league.

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Saunders, at 21, in his FIRST trip around the AA Southern League, already hit about as well in AA as Carp did the NEXT year at 22 -- when repeating the level. Saunders, at 21, was then promoted to AAA, at an age at which Carp was struggling in AA.

As a fleet center fielder, Saunders' hitting line at 21 was quite good, and it would be no stretch to call him an All-Star level Southern Leaguer at 21. (You can let me know if he actually was. I didn't look it up, but did hear something about his being on a World team of some kind, LOL.)

So in terms of performance and results, Saunders was 1.00 years behind the "Grade A Prospect" performance benchmark, whereas Carp is about 2.25 years behind it.

And the AA performances aren't "fliers" for either hitter. The rest of their careers, IMHO, make sense along with their AA performances.

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Roughly-similar-style, big LH hitters, who have roughly comparable AVG/OBP/SLG profiles -- one being about 1.00 years behind "Grade A" and the other tracking about 2.25 years behind. From that standpoint, you see why I put a clear delineation between the two.

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The kicker here is that Saunders' blue-chip status isn't really based on his past performances. He's a big, fleet 6'4" center fielder with projectable power and outstanding speed. He isn't considered a potential ML All-Star because of what he's done on the field; he's expected to leap plateaus from here.

Saunders is a tools-scout favorite, not a sabermetrician's favorite.

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Could be that Mike Carp is also going to hop plateaus; apparently Dr. Zoidberg is thinkin' that. We'll see.

Your serve,

Dr D

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