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Q. What is the effect on a ballgame or a season …. if a player (or a lineup!) has a lot of K, BB, and HR?
A. He can't be defensed. And he can't be slowed down by a pitcher's park (relative to everybody else on the field).
Had you ever noticed that your Gold Gloves don't do you any good against Jim Thome?
TTO players don't get lucky*, don't need luck*, don't depend on BABIP, are not affected* by the fact that they're in Safeco Field or Dodget Stadium. It's them and the pitcher and everybody else can sit down. :- )
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Also, they tend not to run as hot-and-cold.
As you've noticed here with the local club, players and offenses who don't walk, run hot and cold, because they rely on chance. But players and offenses that walk give more even returns over time.
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Q. What if the whole lineup is a TTO? If the whole League is TTO?
A. Bill James pointed out that at the turn of the 20th century, defense was about 25% of the game -- but that as baseball evolved, defense became a smaller and smaller fraction of the game. Now it's only about 15% of the game.
Think about it. 4 K's, 3 BB's, and 0.4 HR's used to be a normal TTO for a pitcher. A Jarrod Washburn K/BB/HR ratio used to be typical for the best pitchers in the league. Pitchers used to need their defenses a lot more than they do now.
Sabermetricians have a new fad; they measure defense better than they used to, so they are telling us that defense is getting more and more important. In reality, with every passing year, defense affects the game less and less. The emphasis is going in the wrong direction.
As we get more interested in defense .... ironically, defense continues to affect the game less.
Granted, the Mariners of 2008 had some low-TTO pitchers and that warped our view of the world a bit.
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As we published (with James) in the STATS Baseball Scoreboard … or the same OPS, offenses with more HR+BB (and fewer 2b and 3b) score more runs. The bases coordinate better; you have fewer LOB's.
Show me a player with a 115 OPS+ who has a lot of BB and HR, and I'll show you a player who changes the scoreboard more than one who has a lot of doubles.
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Q. Are hitters good, or bad, if they have a lot of HR, BB, and K?
A. They are undervalued. As Wiki Gonzalez explains:
TTO players are greatly valued (overvalued?) by statheads, because none of the Three True Outcomes are measured very well by batting average, the historic measure of offensive performance. Walks are not in BA at all, strikeouts are no worse than any other kind of out (and superior to GIDPs), and homers only count as much as singles when measured by BA. Theoretically, a TTO player would thus be underrated — cheaper than a high-average player, but far more productive.Baseball purists are subconsciously offended by the strikeout. (They used to be consciously offended.) They see a guy who swings and misses a lot as "high risk," although of course every hitter is out most of the time anyway. A TTO player feels unreliable. ……………………… Q. Where do Branyan and Dunn rank on the TTO scale? A. Here are the highest career % of TTO in the majors:
57.9% - Jack Cust (going into 2008) 53.2% - Russ Branyan (going into 2008) 52.1% - Dave Nicholson, 1960's 50.0 - Melvin Nieves, 90's 49.9 - Adam Dunn (going into 2008) 49.7 - Rob Deer, 1984-96 46.3 - Jim Thome, current 45.6 - Bo Jackson, 80's 45.4 - Mark McGwire, 80's 90's 44.3 - Mickey Tettleton, 80s 90's 44.1 - Sam Horn, 1987-1995 43.3 - Jay Buhner, 1987-2000 42.9 - Gorman Thomas, 70's 80'sThe all-time single-season high used to be: 60.2%, by Branyan; I didn't check whether Cust has since exceeded that. …………………. Get perspective on this, now: In over 50% of Dunn's and Branyan's AB's, the defense could literally have been playing with only the P and C. The defense could (theoretically of course) have walked off the field in the typical Dunn or Branyan AB. …………………… Q. Why do TTO players get the bum rap that they can't hit a curve? A. Because most of them will not, under any circumstances, swing at a ball outside the strike zone. ML pitchers do throw guys like Cust, Branyan and Dunn blizzards of offspeed pitches. Watch a game sometime. There's a problem, though. Usually when a major league pitcher throws a curve, it is a ball or a sloppy strike that is dangerous to the defense. Which is why TTO hitters walk so much. Pitchers tend to nibble with offspeed stuff. It sounds very easy to throw nothing but curve, change, curve, change – often they do. Sometimes that's a walk, sometimes a K. You think Dunn, Branyan, and Cust walk so much just because the bats are glued to their shoulders? You think Willie Bloomquist could go up, stand motionless taking pitches, and walk 100 times a year? :- ) ................... But bear in mind too, that when you hang that curve, Branyan and Dunn will hit it out. It's not that ML pitchers forget that they shouldn't throw Branyan and Dunn centered fastballs. It's just that when they get to 3-and-1 with those curve balls, and 1B is occupied, they are forced to come in and take their chances. That's why those guys average 40 homers per 550 AB's. ……………………… Q. What do you expect from a Russell Branyan in Safeco? A. As follows:
109 - Branyan's career OPS+ 120 - Branyan's OPS+ since he turned 28 (about the year Cust got good) 138 - Branyan's OPS+ last year 130 - Not a bad bet for 2009 in SafecoYou notice that Branyan spent the year playing for Jack Zduriencik, and Dr. Zoidberg got Branyan in here so fast you didn't even see Z's arm move. You gotta be bullish on Branyan for 2009. . Q. For Adam Dunn? A. Nobody denies any more that Dunn is an elite hitter. He's got a career 130 OPS+ .... if you added 10 points for the fact that he'll now be in his ideal park, you'd be talking 140... 140 OPS+ ? That's Ken Griffey Jr's lifetime OPS+. It's Mike Piazza's, Reggie Jackson's and David Ortiz'. Give Dunn that pitcher's park/TTO wind at his back and if he jumps up a notch, you've got a legit MVP hitter. . Q. Have the Mariners been friendly to Three True Outcomes players? A. This has definitely been part of their problem. They're probably the most extreme "purist" club in the majors and as such, they hate K's (and undervalue BB's). Even if the old Mariners had a Cust or Petagine or Branyan available somewhere, they'd have loathed him. Oh, wait... The old-school Mariners disliked strikeouts, and so they disliked deep counts and BB as well -- they avoided TTO players. ..., and so the effects of Safeco on their (contact) hitters was magnified. HR/BB/K hitters are precisely the kind of hitter who isn't hamstrung by Safeco Field, or by any ballpark. ...Jack Cust -- a journeyman minor leaguer by definition -- went into that tough park in Oakland and immediately posted a 147 and 132 OPS+. Those are (post-2005) Vladimir Guerrero performances -- wind-aided by the fact that Cust was a TTO hitter in a pitcher's park. The Seattle Mariners should grab every decent TTO hitter that they can get their hands on, and forget the strikeouts. Now that Jack Zduriencik is in charge, maybe they will. Cheers, Dr D .
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