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moethedogMuch of our OF speculation is dependent on Miller's role in '15 and beyond. It seems the M's think his footwork issues are serious enough to mean he must move off of SS, at least as a primary position. I can live with that as a transition to OF should be of no real challenge to him. So he goes to the OF. In '15 that would likely mean that he's the 4th OF and a BU SS. Lots of starts available as such, especially if he comes out of the OF blocks with some CF skills. If that is the Miller role, then Seth Smith/Rasmus talk is unneeded. But we still need that RH OF bat. Actually I would prefer we get a Smith/Rasmus guy AND Souza, still keeping Miller as an OF. It's Ackley I worry about. But whoever we get needs CF skills. Souza is going to be good. Kivlehan, too. Add miller to that group and you have a nice OF going forward.1 hour 20 min ago
SABR Mattdon't really care about defense as a value floor. If you don't hit, I don't want you.1 hour 53 min ago
okdanIf I remember right, Taro called his shot on Seth Smith several years ago, hoping the M's would target him. Looking at Souza, is he a similar kind of player? Perhaps that type of player template has a higher degree of working out. Certainly Souza's defense provides a nice floor of value in case his bat doesn't play as well.2 hours 40 min ago
TaroMontero's 2011 line in AAA for example was projected for a .261/.312/.435 line by ZIPS. He basically hasn't improved at all since then. Given his career line is .258/.302/.396 thats pretty close regressing for Safeco.9 hours 47 min ago
TaroBasically Montero was all projection, whereas Souza is good NOW with projection beyond that.9 hours 56 min ago
TaroI was huge on Montero's potential, and I was wrong. But to be fair Montero never put up the MLEs that Souza did. Souza projects as a 2-3 WAR player NOW based on what he did in AAA. Montero never did, he was incredible based on age related performance at his level and had massive power upside. But he never performed as well as Souza. His MLEs were in the 0-1 WAR range and he just never got better from there. Souza RIGHT NOW is above-average player. Montero never was.9 hours 59 min ago
moethedogI'm with Matt: Rios and Rasmus would be delightful! I'm with Taro: Souza will indeed be a player. But you could probably get both Rios and Rasmus for what Melky will cost per/year. 2X$8-$10M (with an option year) for Rasmus and something similar for Rios. Or just do Rasmus AND Souza, making all or us happy. You can get Souza fairly easily and sign Rasmus and have money to spend. Souza, btw, plays 1B, too. LoMo will need some breathers.10 hours 27 min ago
SABR MattHow much did you love Jesus Montero before we traded for him?10 hours 39 min ago
TaroJust think Souza is a player. I like his combination of athleticism, swing, and performance.11 hours 1 min ago
SABR MattRomero, Montero, Smoak, Peguero, Balentien, Clement...so...so many more. So many you won't possibly remember them all. And all but a scant tiny fraction of them have panned out. And that is not unique to the Mariners. There is a massive zero gravity moon step difference between an awesome AAA hitter and a proven major leaguer. All players have risks...but some are less risky than others. And for the record, Cruz's home run power transcends Safeco rather easily...and his hitter's park in Baltimore...has a mediocre at best HR factor to left. So...yeah...not worried about Cruz.11 hours 44 min ago
SABR MattTaro...love your insights and all...but how many guys have we promoted in the last 12 years who had great minor league numbers?11 hours 47 min ago
TaroEvery player you roster has some risk involved, included proven MLBers. Cruz will be a RH backspin 35 year old slugger with a career sub .330 OBP in hitters parks, and we've signed him for 4 years. I'd be more nervous about him than Souza in 2015, and especially beyond that. Souza has the performance in the high minors combined with insane athleticism. I think hes underrated due to being a football convert and a late bloomer.11 hours 56 min ago
SABR Mattyou don't take that sort of risk when this is the best chance you have of winning the WS. Souza can be a fourth outfielder option...not a starter.12 hours 20 min ago
GLSSouza is a risk, but a pretty good one.12 hours 22 min ago
SABR MattSouza is not reliable. That's not sufficient to this moment.12 hours 37 min ago
TaroI'm thinking Melky would want 'at least' 4 years gauranteed if hes looking for 5. If Ms stay hard at 3 they won't land him, vesting option for 4th or not. Just give him 5 with a lower AAV. 5/$55 or something in that range. Or deal for Souza (my favorite option).13 hours 8 min ago
SABR MattRasmus and Rios would be a fine platoon with CF helper potential and would be cheaper than Cabrera. I like Cabrera better even with more money involved, but Rios/Rasmus would also be fine with me.13 hours 14 min ago
Gordon GrossRios and Rasmus would be... extensive. By himself I'm not huge on Rios. A Rios/Rasmus platoon would be damaging. Playing with brass knuckles. I hope the Ms take the velvet gloves fully off this offseason. Zduriencik has waited half a decade to wade into the fight with fists flying - let's make it worth the wait. I'm fine with making Beane cry into his collapsing-budget cup o' coffee.13 hours 18 min ago
SABR MattRasmus. If you get Rios and Rasmus, the outfield aligns OK13 hours 55 min ago
moethedogThe Rios card might not bluff the Melky team guys: In '12 Rios was a heck of a player. In '11 he was a dud. In '13 and '14 he was basically a split heavy .280-.320-.420 guy with a pretty scraggly glove. There doesn't seem to be much Rios market out there right now, which might be a neat quality. You could probably get him for 2 years and not break the bank. Over the last two years Viciedo has hit RHP at a .738 and .689 clip. Rios has hit at .714 and .646 rate. Just saying. But he does continue to beat lefties up, so as a 4th OF-paired with Ackley, as Matt suggests, Rios would be great. He's been at .889 and .898 vL the last two years. That's rip-roaring. But it means that you need a RF who can play CF, as Rios no longer does.14 hours 52 min ago