Spectator's Top 40 up and runnin'

 ...................................................................

Spectator's top 10 is more info-taining than many a top 10 we've seen from "celebrity" sources.  Wish there were some way to disseminate it nationally.  Ah well - it's only a matter of time  :- )

..........

Spec pointed out earlier that being in AA at 19 portends impact in the majors.  In this article he did a survey of the 13 such pitchers since 2000, and found that about half (including Felix and Greinke) have already become ML stars.  

So what to say about a 19-year-old pitcher ... the only such who is IN double-A this year ... who is likely the best pitcher in AA as well?

Taijuan is officially a Felix-level prospect.  On my board.  At age 19, tell me how Felix' future was any brighter than Taijuan's is now.

............

The Liddi-Catricala-Franklin relative rankings show an admirable lack of attention to the last six weeks.  You can't be impulsive and do a decent top 40.

At Prospect Insider, they float the idea that the Mariners might consider shedding Franklin's right hand bat after all.  Dr. D certainly hopes so.  In his view, Franklin going all-lefty is a slam dunk.  Here is the reason why.

............

Great stuff all the way through Spec, but especially enjoyed your giving the nod to Capps over Pryor :- )

You've got high-90's pitchers who both throw strikes.  As Spec aptly notes, the grades on the ammy drafting are helium-ing to loftier and loftier heights by the week.  Meanwhile, as Capps and Pryor outpitch most of the relievers in the major leagues, our fearless Mariners leaders tell us that League's got to close.  Nothin' we can do.

If one of those two guys had to go in a trade tomorrow, and we could pick which one to keep, which would you push at the other team and which would you keep your hooks into?

Think I'd plump for Capps.  But that's pretty much sight-unseen.

:cpoints:,

Dr D

Comments

1

Spec pointed out earlier that being in AA at 19 portends impact in the majors.
Especially when said pitcher probably could actually be in the Majors right now.

3
posterformerlyk...'s picture

I don't like putting anyone in the Felix category as a prospect because Felix had 5 plus pitches at 18. He's a once in a generation talent.
Tajuan Walker is good, but he doesn't belong in the Felix mold.

5

It's not just Taijuan Walker who is setting himself up for quite the career. Franklin performing this well at 21 in AA is pretty special too.
In the top-20 hitters in the Southern League (per B-R) there are two batters under the age of 23: Nick Franklin and Matt Davidson. Both infielders, both 21. Matt is a 3B (and a fellow top-100 prospect). Matt’s year is built on walks and crazy power, but he looks like a power hitter who needs work with a glove not to get moved to 1B. I’d still like to have him. Very Liddi-esque.
But if Franklin can’t stay at SS he still stays in the middle of the diamond at 2B. He’s got a good arm. The Mariners are gonna give him every opportunity to play shortstop and he’s getting better. I don’t think he’ll finish his time in AA at the .340/.407/.535 he’s at now, but he’s skimming along in rare air right now.
Players on the top-20 OPS leaderboard in AA at 21 or younger (140 AB minimum):
2011:
Southern – none
Eastern - none
Texas – Mike Trout (age 19!), Jose Altuve (150 PAs). Both are in the bigs now.
2010:
Southern – Brett Jackson and Alex Liddi. Liddi’s a pro and Jackson will be soon.
Eastern – none
Texas – Hosmer & Moustakas (bigs in summer 2011), Wilin Rosario (bigs Sep 2011)
2009:
Southern – Heyward (age 19!), Logan Morrison (bigs summer 2010)
Eastern – Montero (age 19!)
Texas – Adrian Cardenas (bigs 2012)
2008:
Southern – Michael Saunders (T-19)
Eastern – Pablo Sandoval (round mound of pound!)
Texas – Kyle Blanks
21 or under is tough to do, especially as a MIF. It’s pretty tough at 22, which is why Catricala impressed last year and his early self-immolation has been so disappointing. Nick Franklin is currently outperforming everyone on that list relative to league, is one of the most confident players you’ll see this side of Bryce Harper, and he’s got game to back that swagger.
He’s also been delayed half a year by taking a bat to the face, and actually debuted in AA at 20.
But based off that list of 21-and-under hitters, and looking at the number of immediate or anticipated successes, you should feel pretty good about Franklin and his current hitting prowess in AA. Looking forward to seeing it continue the rest of his time there.
~G

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Chat: 6/30/15 11:58pm
Interests: Health Travel News (185903)
A question:  When was the last time a ML...Read more.
    Shouts update every 10 seconds.       
2015-07-05 19:15

Definately tacoma...Noone else but those two are going.. and neither one of those will be snubbed.

2015-07-05 17:36

So it is safe to assume that Nelson and Felix are the Mariners ONLY All-Stars this year? I know Lowe has had a great year, but no way does a reliever on the 4th place team in probably the worst division get 3 into the game does it?

2015-07-05 17:26

Hope that one was for Lloyd. Team really needs to get around him. I was hopi g he could light a fire around the team..but that didn't seem to be working out for him. Good W in a close game.

2015-07-05 15:40

Here comes the FRE.

2015-07-05 14:38

SETH SMITH!!

2015-07-05 14:28

I'm sure we'd all agree that if we were McClendon we wouldn't want to be there either.

2015-07-05 13:49

TR-pretty sure he is signed through next year. McLendon does not look like he wants to be there...

2015-07-05 13:42

Aside from the games I haven't been able to watch for some reason, in which games the Mariners explode as if on cue, watching the M's hit is NOT like watching paint dry. It's like watching DRIED paint peel.

2015-07-05 13:28

When are Mariners going to re-sign Seth Smith? He always seems to have a quality at bat.

2015-07-05 13:21

Definately sad #News. Hope the best. Tough time for Lloyd in deed a very tough situation with his youngest sister.

2015-07-05 13:17

Sincere condolences to McClendon and his family.

2015-07-05 12:22

I, too, am sorry for Lloyd's loss.

2015-07-05 11:47

Lloyd will not be travelling back to #Seattle after the game today, and Lloyd will miss the entire #Detroit series. Lloyd will be attending the funeral of his youngest sister. Sorry to hear of your loss Lloyd.

2015-07-05 11:40

Neftali Feliz has been DFA'd by the Rangers. Mariners are one of the first teams to get a shot at him. What do ya think? M's have room on 40 man roster, and would only have to send Guaipe back down. I can't imagine that the pro-rated portion of the $4M salary is that much of a worry

2015-07-05 07:46

More on #Montgomery I just read...last rookie to post three straight shutouts was the great Orel Horshiser. Good company and not an easy task. Will see if he can pull it off

2015-07-05 07:20

So excited to watch #Montgomery toe the rubber. Hope he can keep it up. Might really have something special here

2015-07-04 18:11

Had not seen the active posts tab. That helps.

2015-07-04 18:07

I'm not sure I'd call the changes "making an omelet", though.

2015-07-04 18:07

I use the active posts tab now which seems to be working fine. Think I'm keeping up OK

2015-07-04 17:50

Agreed on the side bar, Grumpy. But when you wanna make an omelette, you gotta break some eggs.

2015-07-04 16:56

You know, I kind of miss the sidebar from the old site that listed the comments mase in the main posts. Kind of makes it harder to keep up especially as the posts disappear of to the right. Even though you can scroll to them, it creates an "out-of-site, out-of-mind" situation.

2015-07-04 15:20

M'S need to be clutch for once... find a way to win this late. It'd be a big step in right direction

2015-07-04 13:35

If in April, someone had told me that Rodney had imploded and lost the closer's job, that Leone had been traded and that both Farquahar and Wilhelsen had pitched his way to Tacoma, I would have assumed that the bullpen was a hot mess.

2015-07-04 11:10

Jones, Guaipe and Rollins up. RHB's are hitting .284 vs. Guaipe in AAA this year. Huh....
Jones likely #Travels again when 'Kuma comes up.
My goodness we love James Jones. He is hitting .275-.370 vs. RHP this year. But he's a .580 MLB guy vR....and is basically the same hitter vL.

2015-07-04 04:40

Just took a look and the M'S gotta take 8 of 9 to be above 500 at the break.. here's to dreaming

2015-07-04 04:36

Ya, hate when that happens. It was good with 4 homers in all

2015-07-03 23:42

Of COURSE the M's put on an offensive show tonight. I didn't get to watch a snitch of the game. Happens every time.

2015-07-03 22:45

Elias, Nuno, Bartender to AAA.

2015-07-03 20:34

Hell of an offensive show tonight. But....what will tomorrow bring

2015-07-03 17:47

Kind of forced to listen to a guy with that offensive track record. Zunino sure looks like he's buying in.

2015-07-03 17:37

They *are* playing to be the tailenders aren't they? If they hit last place in a 1-division league, just keep in mind. Edgar. Is. Good.

2015-07-03 17:19

Got a shot for last in the AL tonight. Are the Mariners considered an addiction for those of us who follow so close? Not sure how I can still get excited to spend my Friday night watching this team, but I do!

2015-07-03 17:04

Lil video on espn ap on non-stars.. guy picked Cano number 1. Hard to blame him, and that's the national attention this team has. He definately isn't playing up to par or his paycheck, and it seems to be contagious. On paper....hmm wow not bad, but on field...ummm? Big changes coming up ahead.

2015-07-03 16:34

robinwilliamsmovietitle...quite sweet. It's #Independence Day, it's hot, and clearly my brain is a little addled this afternoon.

2015-07-03 15:34

Rollins has been looking dominant in Tacoma. Decisions, decisions.

2015-07-03 10:59

On Taijuan, edit to add that he looked terrif after 76 pitches but the NL strategy played in to it. And so happened to pay off in a full nickels bin, as it were ...

2015-07-03 10:57

DaddyO … but how sweet is it to have the Taylor/Logo combo in, and Willie out … got to give it up that the M's ate the contract. Politically it's not easy either; you make a decision to give a "reach" contract and then next midseason you admit it was a reach. Very tough to do in a boardroom.

2015-07-03 10:56

Kazmir would have shut out any lineup in the majors on Thursday … not to say our offense doesn't have problemos but Kazmir could not miss the glove, even with his curve ball. If it were bowling he'd have scored 301.

2015-07-03 10:55

Taijuan gets quick hooks in lieu of / in addition to an IP count. Probably has its benefits. The last 10-20% of your reps cost as much wear-and-tear as the first 80-90% ...

2015-07-03 10:24

I question the quick hook on Taijuan more than Felix... 72 pitches and done? Did he look that bad after so few pitches?

2015-07-03 07:02

#Jordan Pries needed 33 pitches to get one out in the 1st w/Tacoma last night. 5 ER's, 2 BB's, 3 hits and two homers. Rollins, now on rehab, threw two innings of zero run ball. 1 hit and 4 K's. Beimel is likely gone soon.

2015-07-03 06:51

Yup zERO consistency.. they we're going for their first 3 game shutout in 7 years. Honestly.. where is the all star break

2015-07-03 06:07

This team is just sad.

2015-07-03 00:05

The Mariners are incapable of winning streaks. Losing streaks maybe, but not winning ones.

2015-07-02 21:04

The worst part of tonight... Billy Beane will now get more for Kazmir when he trades him, so today's lack luster game will haunt us for years to come.

2015-07-02 18:40

As expected, the first five minutes of the pregame show were spent gushing about Willie Bloomquist and what a shame it is His Belovedness has to move on. And my worst fear was realized. They opined about how once he hangs 'em up, perhaps he might come back and join the M's media team. Again, he's probably a nice guy. But I don't wanna see him. To me he represents all that is wrong with the Mariners.

2015-07-02 17:21

I think we, and alot of people, just expect so much of Felix. It was a rare game overall for him. Def disapointing, and he got hit up early. He will need a big bounce back that's for sure. I think alot of it is the high expectations any elite pitcher, or player in any sport,faces

2015-07-02 16:32

Thank you Matt. I feel better now.

2015-07-02 15:10

The change: his Pitches per inning ratio has dropped from 15.2 in 2009 to 14.5 in 2014. He's actually having a bit of an off year in 2015 overall, but that is largely due to getting absolutely shellacked twice at random.

2015-07-02 15:03

As for your question regarding pitch counts over time...Felix isn't losing 120 pitch games because he doesn't care to pitch deep into games and risk injury or because he's getting soft-shoed by the Mariners. He's losing 120+ pitch games because he's pitching more efficiently. His IP counts per season are steady and among the best in baseball.

2015-07-02 15:01

Neither, Tacoma. Felix was pulled from that game because he was visibly laboring late...throwing a TON of pitches and limping a bit on his bad ankle after having to field his position in the 6th. They yanked him because a laboring Felix who's struggling with his command can actually get really terrible really fast.

2015-07-02 14:48

I know I'm stomping on hallowed ground, but... is anyone else bothered by the last Felix start? Yeah, I know it was a no runs, 1 hit masterpiece in 100+ temperatures BUT.... leaving after 6 innings after throwing 96 pitches against a division rival in a game the Mariners really needed to win.
I realize the bullpen was fairly well rested, and Lloyd really mis-managed the bullpen to lose the game... BUT 96 pitches? And this highlights the fact that Felix has not thrown more than 120 in close to two years. Aren't aces / kings supposed to be horses that occasionally throw 130 pitches when it is needed?
Is Lloyd / Mariner's coaching treating Felix with kid gloves too much? Or has Felix decided that pitching another 7 to 10 years is more important than giving max effort this year?

2015-07-02 14:36

If he bombs like that Matt....in some extended trial....then I'm good with that.

2015-07-02 14:32

He'll at least get a September call-up. No reason not to.

2015-07-02 14:30

I am sure Guti gets at least 80 at bats before they cut ties with him... and based on the fact he can not play back to back days... that is easily well into August. I agree that Romero SHOULD get another significant look, but I doubt it happens until August... and possibly September.

2015-07-02 14:30

Most AAAA players get two shots at least. I'm sure Romero will too. And when he's finished hitting .198 with 5 HR and 100 K, hopefully we won't extend a third audition.

2015-07-02 14:00

Looks like the M's could get a young RHB who hit .352-.391-.599 at A+/AA and .321-.365-.559 at AAA. Well....I'm loading the dice. That's Stefen Romero, of course. And I dropped his first AAA year '13, which wasn't a disaster. In '13 Romero, in 411 Tacoma PA's hit .277-.331-.448 with 11 homers. Over 444 '14-'15 Tacoma PA's, he's hit .321-.365-.559 with 21 homers. Matt, I know you hate Romero based on the fact that he doesn't walk much and fizzled in #Seattle last year, but the guy has upped his game to the next level and can slug. If Guti doesn't hit, Romero should get a shot.

2015-07-02 13:20

The timing on this is weird just because it didn't make any sense to send him down lat time, but it is driven by this fact: Miller is hitting .143-.176-.153 vL this year, approx. .160-.215-.250 over the last two and .206-.260-.296 for his career. He's a hard hitting SS vs. RHP, but needs the vL help. Taylor isn't ripping up Tacoma right now (.701 over the last 28 days),but he's at .308-.370-.418 vL for the year, including his #Seattle stint. It doesn't make up a lot more flexible, but it helps us some.

2015-07-02 13:09

It had to be done. Taylor was hitting again in AAA, and we need someone who can actually play short up here to bench Miller against tough lefties.

2015-07-02 12:41

Oh no. They'll probably make Wille B the new manager, and all he'll want to do is talk about grit. jk. At least I won't have to listen any more to the incessant fanboy talk from the M's announcers and commentators.

I'm sure WIllie is a fine man personally. I'm just relieved to no longer be afflicted with his presence as a player taking the spot of someone who can contribute more.

I imagine there is a funereal atmosphere in the front office, where WIllie seemed to symbolize everything Fanboy Mariner-- overhyped and overrated.

2015-07-02 11:40

The end of Boom Boom. About...a year and a half too late

2015-07-02 11:33

Willie Bloomquist DFA'd and Chris Taylor brought up. Maybe some winning will break out.

2015-07-02 11:23

Take Luis Gohara for instance. He's now in #Everett kicking off his 3rd minor league season. It seems like he's been in the org forever, but he's only 18 years old. How he performs for the next 10 weeks or so in #Everett and then next year in full season ball is what will tell us if we actually have something of value.

2015-07-02 11:16

Vargas is a big, strong 16-year old. He's a $1.7 million lottery ticket. We'll see first if he can even play and progress in the minors. Probably, we won't even know if he's a prospect for at least two, if not three, years. It's a lottery ticket, a draw at the deck.

2015-07-02 11:05

Who gets booted really depends on how well Elias does today

2015-07-02 11:04

Another big athlete with unorthodox swing with contact issues. Chances high he moves to the OF, where he may not have enough hand-eye skills to succeed.

2015-07-02 11:03

Iwakuma: 1 R in 5.2 IP in AAA, with 6 punchies. Got a blister (says that happens every year when he starts throwing after a long hiatus) and expects to make his next start...soooooo....who do you send out of this rotation when Iwakuma arrives? I'm gonna be TICKED if they boot #Montgomery, the way he's pitching...but that is probably what they'll do, since he has options.

2015-07-02 11:00

Mariners sign Carlos Vargas (Dominican) to 1.7 M bonus. Thoughts?

2015-07-02 10:58

That would be very nice...but even if Bloomy doesn't retire, DFA'ing him can achieve the same result. But if you take Rollins off the DL, he has to be called up or sent back to his club that very moment. Who in the current bullpen leaves for Rollins? (I'd send out Beimel)

2015-07-02 10:27

Best case scenario? Bloomquist retires, Rollins onto the 40 man, Taylor in #Seattle.

2015-07-02 10:25

that would also be fine with me (Bloomquist DFA)

2015-07-02 10:23

@shannondrayer: Chris Taylor on his way up. Mariners could have another move Sat. as they must make a decision on Rollins by then.

2015-07-02 09:56

More likely WFB.

2015-07-02 09:47

Sounds like the club has come up with a miraculous, imaginary Ackley injury to get him off the roster and get Taylor up...I hope that is what happens here.

2015-07-02 09:24

I was driving in to work a little while ago and on the radio Salk mentioned something about Ackley being overweight and injured. Is that true? Maybe there's an injury, but he's never looked overweight to me.

2015-07-02 09:02

@ProspectInsider: Not hearing anything about a trade involving #Seattle. Taylor's call-up appears to be about an option, DFA or injury.

2015-07-02 08:24

Taylor apparently called up

2015-07-02 06:49

I noticed the Pizzano absence, too...GLS> He was removed mid-game a while back and hasn't been back. Drats. I want him in Tacoma. I did not watch Walker throw yesterday as I was listening to the game while tying flies....but I'm assuming he's still on that Buehrle-like rhythm where he gets a sign and throws. Little has been mentioned of that since the first game he did that....which was the game that began this streak.

2015-07-02 04:16

WOW...that...is some serious data-oriented managing. It explains why they yanked him after six today, as well. They must be watching the radar gun closely with him...looking for signs of the sort of fatigue that can lead to micro-tears.

2015-07-02 04:10

Lloyd came running out of the dugout with the trainer for apparently no reason to check Taijuan's #Health; even Taijuan was confused. Later, cameras showed that he scapula-shrugged twice on the mound, as if annoyed at a pain, and later later, Brooks showed it was three pitches into a little velo drop on the graph. (I don't support or not support him more or less but) Lloyd has a V-E-R-Y sharp in-game eye. Even sharper than Piniella's, looks like.

2015-07-02 04:05

Taijuan's command continues to spiral upward universes away from his first several starts. *Reminded* you even more today of the young Curt Schilling template, using the fastball alone to totally dominate. … also, his spikeball was the best it has ever been for him, absolutely the best ever, and yet he threw it only 2x per inning. ?!

2015-07-02 04:01

Quick reminder guys: no language at all, including *#@#$ marks. Thanks :- )

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