SSI HOT SEAT -- mini Padres 6

Long-awaited roooolllll out

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Hot seat, in which Dr. D gives his scattergun reaction to news of the day.  No thinking allowed.  

It's like Lonnie of MC had a Skype podcast rollin' on us.  Time to skip to the good stuff!  No stats.  No facts.  No supporting evidence, especially none of that egghead F/X baloney.  No wit and most importantly no wisdom.  In fact:  no baseball knowledge.  Just the sound bytes.

This is the American Idol generation.  It's got to pop Pop POP!

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HOT SEAT:  Blake Beavan throws two solid, and nobody squares up a thing.  New angle, says Beavan.  Watch me do what Fister did.

DR. D, KNEE JERK:  We got this big round filing cabinet with the word "Noise" scrawled on the side of it in Sharpie.  We crumple this type of newspaper clipping loosely, and flip it over there no-look.  If it rims out, it stays on the carpet.

Beavan already had an average angle and average movement.  Maybe this will change his angle to "slightly above average;" more likely it will just foul up his shoulder.  

Yeah, that's P90X city baby:  take your one good point and just work THAT.  Forget about the weaknesses.  Go with what brung ya.

Beavan's problem has never been his fastball.  His problem is everything else.

Fister gets minimal, minimal, say it with me MIN..ani-MAL, benefit from the angle on his fastball as such.  He's good because he's good -- changeup, yakker and all the trimmings -- and also because his release point is about two feet closer than batters think.  He gets an invisible four feet on his heater.

Jeremy Bonderman gets insane movement on his fastball.  A moving fastball doesn't make you a hard-case, dude.

The angle doesn't HURT none.  But you're looking for love in all the wrong places.  It's like saying hey, I'm gonna throw my changeup like Carter Capps throws his changeup.  I'm a baaaad man.  

Yer kinda missin' the point on your idol there. 

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HOT SEAT:  Danny Hultzen blows away the mini-Padres with eight (reportedly) precision-located pitches.

Dr. D:  We told you that you might hear this ANY morning.  As it turned out, you heard it on the FIRST morning.  Comparatively speaking, hearing it on the FIRST morning is preferable, as compared to if we'd heard it on the SEVENTH morning.

He's not a guarantee.  He's now, ooohhhhhhhhhhhh .... say a 70% chance.  Of being Deuce Blinkin' Hultzen.

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HOT SEAT:  Taijuan "hits upper 90's."

Dr. D:  After one morning, we are feeling tremendous remorse over the Joe Saunders signing.  At least we don't have to get all invested in Garland and Bonderman...

... Can you pull a wry face on a Skype audio?

Given another four sharp outings by Hultzen ... How 'bout you take Saunders, Garland, and Bonderman, Eric.  I'll take Erasmo, Taijuan, and Hultzen.  Play you a series for your paycheck?

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Seriously.  Baseball is so encumbered by tradition -- "tradition" in the worst sense of the word, doing things the wrong way, even though we KNOW it's the wrong way, for the reason that we've always done it that way.

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HOT SEAT:  Kameron Loe, according to Baker, "will make the team" if he throws like he did his first time out.

Dr. D:  How many of these guys are Blake Beavan plus a million or six dollars in wages?  Never has one man been passed up so fast by so many people for so little reason.

Well, the Seahawks are revolutionizing the NFL by creating competition at every position.  I read it on the net.

 

 

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Comments

May look like the mistake in a week? A month? I thought it was all along, so I'm asking how long it might take for that to be a more prevalent opinion. Not expecting average fans to see it that way though. They tend to only want veterans.

"How 'bout you take Saunders, Garland, and Bonderman, Eric. I'll take Erasmo, Taijuan, and Hultzen. Play you a series for your paycheck?"

Beautiful. Just perfect.

1

CMB's picture

CMB

At least this team finally has some options. The lack of depth we've previously had was depressing. To me, it's a great problem to have. How many teams have kept the same 5 the whole season anyway?

Felix
Saunders
Iwakuma
Ramirez
Hultzen

Yes, please.

Charlie Gordon

2

To start out, in my opinion. I just would have preferred Beaven, Paxton, Walker, Maurer, Bonderman and Garland fighting for the spot you have Saunders in.

It's definitely a good problem unless Saunders isn't one of the 5 best, since they can't trade him until the end of June. The chances that he was going to be one of the 5 best never looked good to me.

3

Have a lot of nagging injuries in their recent history, obviously Bonderman and Garland are coming off big layoffs. Paxton had his hip problem. That's a big role of the dice.

4

You've got a point, but I see Beaven as entirely adequate without any improvement to a pitch. We're talking about 13 options to start, not the usual 7 or 8. There's way more depth than I can recall ever seeing any team have in the rotation. One more didn't change there being depth, that was already the position. The only thing it added was a mediocre proven MLB veteran. You can argue that there's a need for that, but starting options we already had aplenty.

5

If Taijuan looks great, as he did first time, and Deuce Hultzen looks fixed, as he did first time, and Paxton looks good, as he apparently did ... well, it's only one game* but it's one game that Z wasn't able to see when making his offseason decisions.

Not busting his chops over offseason hedge bets.

If he STICKS WITH the meatballs, after he sees that he's got lasagna primavera, we'll bust his chops at that point, b'lee DAT

6

Unlikely that GMZ abandons J Saunders until the 1/2 way point. But the wookies looking good hopefully prevents GMZ from carrying either Bonderman or Garland into the season. Jack is all about quality back-up and lots of depth this year -- he got burned last year with offensive holes at 1B, DH, OF due to lack of quality depth & it is not going to happen again.

7

If Saunders is running a 100 ERA+ and is on a 1-year deal Terry then --- > you'd think for sure that they could get a piece of some value, right?

LOVING the fact that we're talking about shedding Saunders before he ever appears in a spring game.  HEH

..............

What's PHX stand for Terry?

8

Love to see Hultzen open the year in the five hole, and then see Saunders cashed at the trade deadline and the next kid brought up. Whoever heard of having more than enough qualified starting pitchers? Do the Royals have problems like this? What do they do with Beaven? He's a pretty good pitcher. They can't just give him away.

9

ghost's picture

ghost

The buzz from Baker and the Mariner personnel is that the club thinks Maurer is the closest to being a finished product, not Hultzen/Paxton who they believe can still learn something in AAA.

I expect to see the big three all in Tacoma this year pitching together just as they were all in AA last year pitching together in the first half. If I had a guess, I'd say we are going to go with Felix/Iwakuma/Saunders/Ramirez/Maurer and Beavan will be the first fall-back to Maurer if he struggles.

10

Kite's picture

Kite

Pinpoint fastball, breaking ball for strikes, and aggressive beyond belief. He's easily the most polished prospect in the system. I don't think he should start the season though, too much at stake to ignore his potential delivery issues. A month or two in Tacoma making sure he's (mostly) consistent start to start is all he really needs at this point, and get the extra year too.

Walker showed why his upside is so high, but he's still "throwing" too much vs. "pitching." He doesn't know where his stuff is going, and he seems to lack an elite strike-out pitch, especially when he can't control the curve. His new cutter isn't a K pitch, and his change-up isn't MLB ready. He's too young to go back to his slider. He's still a good year away, at least, he needs to get that curve working and build confidence in his change-up.

Paxton...what's up with his arm? 89-90 mph? Hopefully just early Spring issues. He still has command issues, but his 3 pitch mix is good enough to play in the MLB, as long as he can control his fastball. I see him coming up after Saunders gets shipped off at the deadline, or after the 1st injury after Hultzen goes up, if he learns to control a bit better.

Maurer...what a revelation. Easy 94, touch 96, his arm is as good as Walker's, but his stuff is too hit-able. A sub 8 K/9 in AA is not going to translate, I don't care how hard you throw it. He needs to take a big step forward this year before he becomes anything more than a potential MOR guy.

12

It's all about the innings. There isn't a single one of the big four that will throw 200 innings in 2013. The big 3 might not get more than 150. Nobody knows how Iwakuma will handle the FTE pitching load come August. And that means Saunders is a virtual lock to spend the entire season in Seattle.

13

ghost's picture

ghost

Doc can vent his frustration with the slow pace that Z uses to develop pitchers he doesn't intend on trading, but, to me, it's perfectly legitimate to take care of your talents even if it sacrifices a little bit from the current season...so long as you're building toward something real in the very near future.

14

then there's Beaven, Noesi, Garland and Bonderman to pick from in a rotation headed by Felix, Iwakuma and Ramirez. 2 of those guys to maybe cover 4-8 starts to close out the season unless it's a year for postseason play too. Sure Iwakuma and Ramirez were under 140 IP last year too, there's no way to be sure how it will all play out. So go to a 6 man rotation with Felix skipping around to stay on 5 days. Him, Saunders and Beaven were all well over 140 innings last year. The way they've added depth maybe it should be an 8 man rotation.

15

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MtGrizzlyI hope your are right, bsr.22 min 30 sec ago
bsrI just think put it all together, there will be enough money and confidence to support a nice payroll bump. Given the cash flow constraints of our ownership situation, it may well come in stages - get up to ~$115M initially, with some reserve to spend midseason if attendance hits projections.1 hour 1 sec ago
bsrMy $120-130M payroll is a gut feeling based on a number of factors. I know that betting the under on predicting M's payroll would have been a winning bet the past few years, but I believe (hope) this year will be different. They spent $117M in 2008 with attendance of 2.3M. That is a reasonable 2015 attendance projection even for the bean counters who run this team. Since 2008, they've added a lot of TV revenue to the pot. This team has a good core to build on in Felix-Cano-Seager-Zunino-Pax/Taijuan-bullpen of death, and is a "safe" bet to invest in (unlike the fluky 2009 team). Any improvement likely means playoffs. Mather said earlier this year they'd like to reach the playoffs "4 of the next 5 years" - the 1 is down, so it's time for the 4 to start :) WAR cost what, $6M? M's need ~+5 WAR so that is +$30M, $130M total. As I've analyzed before, $130M is the minimum payroll required to build around 2 massive contracts like the M's have.1 hour 35 sec ago
DaddyONote to KC for tonight's game... (bear with the ad that precedes the video) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XD-PfIdGIBE1 hour 42 min ago
rick82We don't have a Big Papi, but Jesus could be our Big Sloppy3 hours 53 min ago
rick82For the right side, let's hope for a growth between the ears and a shrinkage around the gut and thighs of one Jesus Montero. Versus lefties, the dude has a lifetime batting average of .318 and OPS of .827. That would help take the sting away when Pineda is dominating the AL East next season.3 hours 55 min ago
rick82But holy cow, Seager: .300 BA and .893 OPS in Safeco for 2014. That's real star territory there. We need to get more of that from our lefties. Looking at you LoMo, Ackley, Saunders, Miller.4 hours 16 sec ago
rick82Actually, take that back. Just spitballing, but Joyce is redundant with Ackley and Saunders around.4 hours 2 min ago
rick82Saunders and JJ is veteran grit plenty for the bench. And bsr, the slugging for Cano in Safeco is interesting. Seager was a monster at Safeco, slugging .523 in 2014. We just need to locate and sign more hitters like him. I would like to pry Matt Joyce from Tampa.4 hours 9 min ago
MtGrizzlyWishful thinking, Matt. I've seen that same number posted every off season.5 hours 31 min ago
MtGrizzlyThat would be my bench, Bat. Saunders, JJ, Taylor and Sucre. But I'll bet that Lloyd will want some veteran grit there.5 hours 36 min ago
SABR MattWhere did this 120-130 million payroll come from? I'll believe it when I see it.5 hours 41 min ago
Bat571So, in late innings, behind by just a run or two, they decide to walk LoMo - put in JJ and let him drive the pitcher nuts like we've seen he can do. He may not be the big OF bat we need, but he could be quite the weapon off the bench if he can play any of the OF spots plus 1B. Ignoring Willie Bloomquist for the moment, a bench of Saunders, Taylor, and JJ, would be quite the quiver of weapons.15 hours 43 min ago
Bat571I bet Miller, Taylor, and JJ all get reps at other positions next spring. I can understand that JJs speed is wasted if he's a 1B like he was in college, but if he's a bench guy anyway, then put him there when you need to to get him on base in late innings. And his size and athleticism are in Olerud's class. So, bye Smoak and Morales - LoMo and JJ will do just fine - and we still have Willie and Ackley if need be.15 hours 56 min ago
Bat571Look at the post-ASB numbers for some of the M's, though - Saunders .952(!); Morrison .789; Miller .794; Ackley .783, and Cano .808. Now think of Kemp or VMart or JoeyBats between Cano and Seager and maybe Rios hitting .300 batting 7/8 when someone else sits for a day. I could live with that. And then Jackson with a bouce-back, Seager improving, and JJ learning to hit bendy stuff as the 5th OF & BU 1B - yeah, I'd get excited!16 hours 3 min ago
bsrWow I totally missed that Matt Kemp had a 600 SLG after the ASB and wound up at 850 OPS for the year with 25 HR. 9 in September. That would have been nice to have.17 hours 13 min ago
bsrCano's SLG was actually higher at Safeco this year, 470 vs 440 on road. The key question for this offseason will be how to get more hitting, and specifically do we go for another Star and hope he can also juice Cano's production (eg, steal the Detroit roster model by signing V-Mart), or do we try to finally patch the black holes with reliable Civics? To me, the bullpen is already good, and rotation depth should be addressable fairly easily without breaking the bank. Payroll will be $120-130M I predict, which should offer some real flexibility and we can finally see if Jack has what it takes to get us to the promised land.17 hours 21 min ago
bsrCano's season stat trend the past 3 years is so fascinating. He is like a metronome in BA and OBP: 313/314/314 and 379/383/382. I mean, that's just incredible. He's been losing SLG though, and cutting down the K's as well. I really hope he can regroup in the offseason having experienced a year of Safeco / being on a bad hitting team, and figure out a way to get back to 20-25 HR next year. 14 is not enough from our best hitter unless they can get another lineup anchor to match him with.17 hours 30 min ago
bsrSeager wound up at 788 OPS. M's yet to produce an 800 OPS hitter since A-Rod. In MLB this year, 35 players hit this level. Seager had the #42 OPS in MLB. Very good, but not good enough for the 2nd best hitter on a team with no depth. Hopefully next year he'll get over the 800 hump, he's been improving bit by bit each year.17 hours 50 min ago
rick82Haven't heard from Jeff in a while. Hope everything is OK.18 hours 53 min ago