SSI HOT SEAT -- mini Padres 6

Long-awaited roooolllll out

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Hot seat, in which Dr. D gives his scattergun reaction to news of the day.  No thinking allowed.  

It's like Lonnie of MC had a Skype podcast rollin' on us.  Time to skip to the good stuff!  No stats.  No facts.  No supporting evidence, especially none of that egghead F/X baloney.  No wit and most importantly no wisdom.  In fact:  no baseball knowledge.  Just the sound bytes.

This is the American Idol generation.  It's got to pop Pop POP!

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HOT SEAT:  Blake Beavan throws two solid, and nobody squares up a thing.  New angle, says Beavan.  Watch me do what Fister did.

DR. D, KNEE JERK:  We got this big round filing cabinet with the word "Noise" scrawled on the side of it in Sharpie.  We crumple this type of newspaper clipping loosely, and flip it over there no-look.  If it rims out, it stays on the carpet.

Beavan already had an average angle and average movement.  Maybe this will change his angle to "slightly above average;" more likely it will just foul up his shoulder.  

Yeah, that's P90X city baby:  take your one good point and just work THAT.  Forget about the weaknesses.  Go with what brung ya.

Beavan's problem has never been his fastball.  His problem is everything else.

Fister gets minimal, minimal, say it with me MIN..ani-MAL, benefit from the angle on his fastball as such.  He's good because he's good -- changeup, yakker and all the trimmings -- and also because his release point is about two feet closer than batters think.  He gets an invisible four feet on his heater.

Jeremy Bonderman gets insane movement on his fastball.  A moving fastball doesn't make you a hard-case, dude.

The angle doesn't HURT none.  But you're looking for love in all the wrong places.  It's like saying hey, I'm gonna throw my changeup like Carter Capps throws his changeup.  I'm a baaaad man.  

Yer kinda missin' the point on your idol there. 

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HOT SEAT:  Danny Hultzen blows away the mini-Padres with eight (reportedly) precision-located pitches.

Dr. D:  We told you that you might hear this ANY morning.  As it turned out, you heard it on the FIRST morning.  Comparatively speaking, hearing it on the FIRST morning is preferable, as compared to if we'd heard it on the SEVENTH morning.

He's not a guarantee.  He's now, ooohhhhhhhhhhhh .... say a 70% chance.  Of being Deuce Blinkin' Hultzen.

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HOT SEAT:  Taijuan "hits upper 90's."

Dr. D:  After one morning, we are feeling tremendous remorse over the Joe Saunders signing.  At least we don't have to get all invested in Garland and Bonderman...

... Can you pull a wry face on a Skype audio?

Given another four sharp outings by Hultzen ... How 'bout you take Saunders, Garland, and Bonderman, Eric.  I'll take Erasmo, Taijuan, and Hultzen.  Play you a series for your paycheck?

.

Seriously.  Baseball is so encumbered by tradition -- "tradition" in the worst sense of the word, doing things the wrong way, even though we KNOW it's the wrong way, for the reason that we've always done it that way.

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HOT SEAT:  Kameron Loe, according to Baker, "will make the team" if he throws like he did his first time out.

Dr. D:  How many of these guys are Blake Beavan plus a million or six dollars in wages?  Never has one man been passed up so fast by so many people for so little reason.

Well, the Seahawks are revolutionizing the NFL by creating competition at every position.  I read it on the net.

 

 

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Comments

May look like the mistake in a week? A month? I thought it was all along, so I'm asking how long it might take for that to be a more prevalent opinion. Not expecting average fans to see it that way though. They tend to only want veterans.

"How 'bout you take Saunders, Garland, and Bonderman, Eric. I'll take Erasmo, Taijuan, and Hultzen. Play you a series for your paycheck?"

Beautiful. Just perfect.

1

CMB's picture

CMB

At least this team finally has some options. The lack of depth we've previously had was depressing. To me, it's a great problem to have. How many teams have kept the same 5 the whole season anyway?

Felix
Saunders
Iwakuma
Ramirez
Hultzen

Yes, please.

Charlie Gordon

2

To start out, in my opinion. I just would have preferred Beaven, Paxton, Walker, Maurer, Bonderman and Garland fighting for the spot you have Saunders in.

It's definitely a good problem unless Saunders isn't one of the 5 best, since they can't trade him until the end of June. The chances that he was going to be one of the 5 best never looked good to me.

3

Have a lot of nagging injuries in their recent history, obviously Bonderman and Garland are coming off big layoffs. Paxton had his hip problem. That's a big role of the dice.

4

You've got a point, but I see Beaven as entirely adequate without any improvement to a pitch. We're talking about 13 options to start, not the usual 7 or 8. There's way more depth than I can recall ever seeing any team have in the rotation. One more didn't change there being depth, that was already the position. The only thing it added was a mediocre proven MLB veteran. You can argue that there's a need for that, but starting options we already had aplenty.

5

If Taijuan looks great, as he did first time, and Deuce Hultzen looks fixed, as he did first time, and Paxton looks good, as he apparently did ... well, it's only one game* but it's one game that Z wasn't able to see when making his offseason decisions.

Not busting his chops over offseason hedge bets.

If he STICKS WITH the meatballs, after he sees that he's got lasagna primavera, we'll bust his chops at that point, b'lee DAT

6

Unlikely that GMZ abandons J Saunders until the 1/2 way point. But the wookies looking good hopefully prevents GMZ from carrying either Bonderman or Garland into the season. Jack is all about quality back-up and lots of depth this year -- he got burned last year with offensive holes at 1B, DH, OF due to lack of quality depth & it is not going to happen again.

7

If Saunders is running a 100 ERA+ and is on a 1-year deal Terry then --- > you'd think for sure that they could get a piece of some value, right?

LOVING the fact that we're talking about shedding Saunders before he ever appears in a spring game.  HEH

..............

What's PHX stand for Terry?

8

Love to see Hultzen open the year in the five hole, and then see Saunders cashed at the trade deadline and the next kid brought up. Whoever heard of having more than enough qualified starting pitchers? Do the Royals have problems like this? What do they do with Beaven? He's a pretty good pitcher. They can't just give him away.

9

ghost's picture

ghost

The buzz from Baker and the Mariner personnel is that the club thinks Maurer is the closest to being a finished product, not Hultzen/Paxton who they believe can still learn something in AAA.

I expect to see the big three all in Tacoma this year pitching together just as they were all in AA last year pitching together in the first half. If I had a guess, I'd say we are going to go with Felix/Iwakuma/Saunders/Ramirez/Maurer and Beavan will be the first fall-back to Maurer if he struggles.

10

Kite's picture

Kite

Pinpoint fastball, breaking ball for strikes, and aggressive beyond belief. He's easily the most polished prospect in the system. I don't think he should start the season though, too much at stake to ignore his potential delivery issues. A month or two in Tacoma making sure he's (mostly) consistent start to start is all he really needs at this point, and get the extra year too.

Walker showed why his upside is so high, but he's still "throwing" too much vs. "pitching." He doesn't know where his stuff is going, and he seems to lack an elite strike-out pitch, especially when he can't control the curve. His new cutter isn't a K pitch, and his change-up isn't MLB ready. He's too young to go back to his slider. He's still a good year away, at least, he needs to get that curve working and build confidence in his change-up.

Paxton...what's up with his arm? 89-90 mph? Hopefully just early Spring issues. He still has command issues, but his 3 pitch mix is good enough to play in the MLB, as long as he can control his fastball. I see him coming up after Saunders gets shipped off at the deadline, or after the 1st injury after Hultzen goes up, if he learns to control a bit better.

Maurer...what a revelation. Easy 94, touch 96, his arm is as good as Walker's, but his stuff is too hit-able. A sub 8 K/9 in AA is not going to translate, I don't care how hard you throw it. He needs to take a big step forward this year before he becomes anything more than a potential MOR guy.

12

It's all about the innings. There isn't a single one of the big four that will throw 200 innings in 2013. The big 3 might not get more than 150. Nobody knows how Iwakuma will handle the FTE pitching load come August. And that means Saunders is a virtual lock to spend the entire season in Seattle.

13

ghost's picture

ghost

Doc can vent his frustration with the slow pace that Z uses to develop pitchers he doesn't intend on trading, but, to me, it's perfectly legitimate to take care of your talents even if it sacrifices a little bit from the current season...so long as you're building toward something real in the very near future.

14

then there's Beaven, Noesi, Garland and Bonderman to pick from in a rotation headed by Felix, Iwakuma and Ramirez. 2 of those guys to maybe cover 4-8 starts to close out the season unless it's a year for postseason play too. Sure Iwakuma and Ramirez were under 140 IP last year too, there's no way to be sure how it will all play out. So go to a 6 man rotation with Felix skipping around to stay on 5 days. Him, Saunders and Beaven were all well over 140 innings last year. The way they've added depth maybe it should be an 8 man rotation.

15

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phxterryWow - Angels got 5 XBH's in the 4th inning, including 2 triples. That'll improve their batting statistics.21 min 16 sec ago
Gordon GrossWe REALLY need our stud young pitching to get healthy and productive. These BOR retreads are killing us.34 min 25 sec ago
Gordon Grosssuch an ugly game.35 min 37 sec ago
SABR MattYes Doc...that was what I was saying...we have data on this...actually, the F/X data will (I'm confident) show that the Mariners have been #30 in baseball in the size of the 50% calls bubble since the F/X data became reliable...I haven't looked, but we've been watching the game together for many years.4 hours 40 min ago
Gordon GrossArticle on Jack and urgency vs. underperforming players coming when I get home. Let me rephrase: RAMBLE concerning said urgency as well as the plusses and minuses of roster creation coming in a couple of hours.5 hours 6 min ago
jemanjiActually there is a proof, right? A few weeks ago, the article was posted that showed the M's #30 in strike zone calls. Anybody have that article?6 hours 21 min ago
SABR MattI suppose, howeve,r that there is a difference when mistakes are constantly being made that bias against you and you can prove it numerically.6 hours 34 min ago
malcontentThe referenced articles: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/05/pitchfx_detecti.php http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=201207 hours 37 min ago
malcontentAlso, I remember two articles, one about Milton Bradley and one about Jose Bautista, regarding their famous conflicts with umpires, and both those articles coming to the conclusion that neither player was being better or worse treated than the average batter, and that both players had complained on occasions when their was no mistake made.7 hours 42 min ago
SABR MattThey can't afford to be "urgent" about their roster moves yet other than the obvious issue with not calling up Franklin to replace the rotting corpse that is Robert Andino. Most of the other moves we'd like to see them make from a purely emotional perspective there are reasons why it may not be prudent to actually make in the real world. I think Z's roster building in the offseason was a textbook example of being TOO urgent, rather than not urgent enough.7 hours 42 min ago
malcontentAnd we have very little about manager relations with umpires. Has there ever been a study to see if more managers get better calls after being tossed from a game? I imagine some of the umpires might actually be vindictive and call worse zones for the complaining manager more likely than umpires being embarrassed into calling a fairer game.7 hours 45 min ago
malcontentThey also DFA'd Kameron Loe 2 weeks into the season.7 hours 52 min ago
phxterryMatt - Doing nothing may well cost GMZ his job, if 81 wins is required for his survival and the M's end up with, say 74-76. But he doesn't show any urgency to fix any of the other problems that are more clearly fixable, so why would he do anything about this one? IMO, at a minimum, Wedgie should be in ump's faces regulaly, say once every 2 weeks with different crews, and get tossed to show his players that he is standing up for them & to let the umps know that someone at least saw their bad calls. The called third strike on Morse to end the game in NY last week was a perfect opportunity. Go blast the umps when the game just ended - free shot at one of them after a horrible call. But again, I see no evidence of urgency in anything this organization does, with the exception of getting Harang to replace Beavan.8 hours 11 min ago
SABR MattI don't know that there's much the Mariners can do about the umpires and get away with it politically. You can't go to the league and gripe about it because you need the league to be in your camp on other disputes and there's no clear and overwhelming evidence that the umpires are knowingly biasing the zone against Seattle. The data says we're jobbed more than any team in the big leagues, but the league and the umpire union could argue that that is a result of bad catching or bad luck. You can't really file a lawsuit because you have to show damages and it's not clear that the losses hurt the Mariners financially in a clear way. You can't take up a grievance against the umpires union directly because the league has rules against one team causing trouble in that manner. And you can't just speak to the press about it because you won't have any friends amongst the other owners if you air your dirty laundry on national TV. So what can you really do?8 hours 24 min ago
phxterryCorrection: Difference between 20-25 & 25-20.8 hours 38 min ago
phxterryFourth Memo from the Accountability Dept: Jemanji has identified five (5) games that blown ball/strike calls have cost the M's dearly. 5 wins turned into losses are the difference between 20-25 & 25-2. Arguably, umpire bias is the most important cause of the M's losing season. Do we have any evidence that the M's Brain Trust is doing anything about this? We know Wedgie is not - he's been tossed from only 1 game. He NEVER leaves the comfort of the dugout during games. To my knowledge, he never brings umpire bias up in post-game interviews. Has GMZ ever mentioned it? Honest question: Is anybody aware that the M's are doing anything, literally anything, on any level, to counter-act this bias that has wrecked their season? I am not. And we can can be darn sure that this bias is not going away by itself. Imagine if Mark Cuban were owner of this team, watching game after game flushed by biased umpires. Would he sit still and just take it?8 hours 39 min ago
phxterryThird Memo from the Accountability Dept: A third asset - Jesus Montero - for whom the M's gave a top-flight young starting pitcher (who is now throwing 95 mph and ready for re-hab), had (at least) 3 known problems that needed attention in the off-season: 1) his running/agility 2) catching defense 3) hitting. In 2013: 1) his running/agility have not improved, to my eye, 2) hids catching defense has gotten worse, to my eye, and 3) his hitting has definitely gotten worse. It's passing the buck for the M's management to say Montero is out-of-shape, that his work ethic is poor, yadda yadda. If the M's Brain Trust (loosely used term) was aware of all these weaknesses in ST, then why did they structure their entire approach to 2013 relying on an un-reliable, lazy kid? Why didn't they send Montero down to AAA to straighten himself out and get 2 Kelly Shoppach's? And if they couldn't tell in ST that he hadn't improved, are they qualified to hold the positions they hold?9 hours 5 min ago
SABR MattOn those two larger points, I definitely agree, Terry...there's something not right about how the4 players are pursuing their professional development in Seattle. The number of players who are doing things independently in this org. seems unusually high...Franklin's eating binge, Saunders' pool floaters and rubber bands, Seager's Florida training workshops, Ackley's swing (mis)coaching...I would argue that players in Seattle are not happy with their player development team if they are this frequently acting without support from the club.9 hours 8 min ago
phxterrySecond Memo from the Accountability Dept: Another asset - Nick Franklin - also potentially worth $75-100M, embarks on an eating program in the off-season without any apparent knowledge or concurrence of the M's Brain(less?) Trust, and is immediately castigated for said eating program when ST starts. For all we know, the failure to bring up Franklin right now may be the Organization's way of punishing him for his dietary sins & making sure he knows his proper place. I have worked in lots of organizations -- failures on the magnitude of these 2 would have had heads rolling in all the well-run organizations for which I have worked. Only the screwed up ones would have not enforced accountability for such large mistakes.9 hours 21 min ago
phxterryMemo from the Accountability Dept: The M's have an asset in the form of Ackley that is potentially worth, say, at least $75-100M, if he succeeds to his potential as the #2 pick in a rich draft. Right now he is failing miserably and on track to be worth, literally, pennies on the dollar. Yet Ackley was sent away last off-season to work out his swing problems on his own, and he showed up at spring training with his stance and swing so screwed up that the changes just initiated had to be scrapped 41 days into the season. Now he is trying to change his swing mid-season - good luck with that unless he is sent down. Who ultimately is held accountable for this egregious failure in the management of an asset worth millions? Nobody ...... because that's how failing organizations are run.9 hours 24 min ago