SSI HOT SEAT - mini Mariners 8

Talia Shire "can't bear to watch" Dept.

.

HOT SEAT:  Wells and Bay trade spinning backheels to the jaw on days 1 and 2.  Both fall simultaneously.  CREED WILL RETAIN HIS TITLE!  IF NEITHER OF THEM CAN ....

Dr. D:  You know what's really going on in spring training, right?

Imagine if Baseball Prospectus had a little metric column that said "Bat Launch," and indexed it to average, and some hitters were at 120 and some at 80.  If they could bottle that stat and get the distributing license, their yearly subscription would be $129.95.  Wow!  Alvin Davis was always at 127, but this year suddenly he's at 79.  Better not draft that kid.

But that's what Wedge, and the other boots on the ground, are doing.  They're watching the players physically.  They're looking at body language, spring in the step, and using their intuition to grok whether a player is prepared for an UP or DWN season.

They're not always right.  But any fan who doesn't RESPECK' it is kidding himself.

We know who Wells is.  Jason Bay is an ol' friend who had a beer with Capt Jack and got an invite.  The HR score is 1-1 and Bay is wayyyyy ahead.

.............

I know nobody axed me, but if anybody did, the M's got no bidness in this barrio.  Stubbing out Casper Wells in order to take one last roach-clipped toke off Jason Bay, that's letting your heart think for your head.  No way in the world, man, esPECIally now that the RBI's are in the bank for this ballclub.

.

HOT SEAT:  Morse putting on Russ Branyan-type displays in batting practice, sending the tailgaters scrambling under their plastic awnings ... and then going out into the game and rifling a shot into right-center field for a single.

Dr. D:  I never, ever, wever say "I told you so."  You've been reading a long time.  You know I'm above that, and especially above declaring victory on February 24th.

"Average Player."  What a JOKE.  :- P   

SAT comparison problem:  Michael Morse is to Bret Boone -- as -- Gimli is to ______ (Samwise Gamgee).  ... 'twas the last time we had an MMA-compatible cleanup hitter who shortened up with two strikes.

.

HOT SEAT:  Super Slo-sMoak with a notable lefty homer.

Dr. D:  No word on whether it busted out a light slow-motion, sparks flying into Robert Duvall and a girlfriend in the stands taking 20 seconds to raise her hands to her cheeks.  But it's the first game of spring training, so no.  The lights weren't on.

Some guys actually do blast out of the gate, based on a revolutionary winter; I remember one year Butch Wynegar spent the winter hitting off 6' video recordings of pitchers in his barn, ripped up spring training, and had a big year.

Interest factor slight to moderate.  Check back in five games.  If Smoak really is slugging .700 a week from now, eyes slideways.  But he probably won't be.

.

Dr. D!  You are Off the Hot Seat,

Lonnie of MC

 

Klat Categories: 

Comments

Except I admit that just yesterday I started thinking that maybe Bay was a good pickup. I'm not saying that I think he was just that I always figured the chance to be so low as not to be worth really noting but now I'm a bit more intrigued. At the time it was an ok crap shoot, then Ibanez signed and Morse was acquired, then the revelation that Morse was slated for OF duty mainly. I'd have been pretty happy with the outfield outlook without Bay, but I'm watching a bit closer now.

Hultzen throwing the ball 7 times to get 2 K's and a weak grounder was pretty eye opening. 1 walk given up by the whole staff too. If we ignore Noesi (since hardly anyone is hoping for him) so far the guys battling to start have been phenomenal. If it keeps up I'll start combining the stats, but it's so early.

1

Bay hit his off Tyson Ross, who's big problem is control and not stuff, and he hit it off a 95 mph fastball after Wells struck out. Wells hit his off a 28 year old that reached AAA for the second time last season. I don't know anything about Brandon Kloess (Wells' victim), but he was the 5th guy the Padres ran out. Friday, the Mariners ran out Chance Ruff in, and Saturday they ran out Bobby Laframboise, and neither of those guys are making the bullpen out of camp, and neither are going to be the first callup if someone gets hurt (both could admittedly hand an ML bullpen role, but this is the Mariners Bullpen of Ultimate doom we're talking about).

The point is, if Bay looks like 95% of his old .900 self, if he can pull an .850 OPS over 400 or so PA, well, would you rather have Reggie Sanders or Chris Young? I don't know if there is a right answer.

2

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <ul> <ol> <li> <i> <b> <img> <table> <tr> <td> <th> <div> <strong> <p> <br> <u>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
By submitting this form, you accept the Mollom privacy policy.

Shoutbox

Please log in or create an account to post shouts.
Gordon GrossKivlehan is 3rd in the Southern League in ops. Behind some dude named bryant, and another good prospect in Lamb. He's getting better every week. I get mad at the Ms for not moving DJ to first... but maybe that's because Pat won't let em. I still think he should be in the OF though. Nice having system bats, I won't lie. Just don't rush em.1 hour 38 min ago
moethedogMLBTR has it that the Cubs rejected a Yankees bid on Ruggiano. Initeresting. Are they looking at a better bid by someone else? Could be. He's a RHB OF'er worth getting. Franklin might do it straight up.2 hours 55 min ago
bsrDept of Who Knew? Per Wikipedia: Benjamin Isaac Broussard (born September 24, 1976) is an American professional baseball first baseman. He is currently a musician, and still plays baseball in Mexico City, Mexico, for the Diablos Rojos and the Long Island Ducks in the Atlantic League of Professional Baseball ... Broussard has released two full-length music albums. The first, his self-titled album, was released in 2005. The second, Renovated, was released in 2009. He was also featured on the album, Oh Say Can You Sing?, a compilation of different Major League Baseball players singing their favorite songs. On that album Broussard sang U2's With or Without You. He is now a full-time musician.10 hours 39 min ago
Bat571vR ABs = 21412 hours 32 min ago
Bat571Now, about platoon splits. Some guys don't seem to have them. Patrick Kivlehan in 71 G at Jackson, covering 259 ABs - Overall = .317/.389/.510/.899, vL = .311/.392/.511/.903, vR = .318/.389/.509/.898. That is the closest I have ever seen for that many ABs (vL = 45, vR =24). He has become some kinda hittter! Walking 10.2% and K'ing 18.8% as well. Can you really ask for more?12 hours 32 min ago
Bat571When he first came up, he was able to do it - I'm hoping he can rediscover how.13 hours 4 min ago
Bat571We'll just have to see what Mr. Ackley does when pitchers adjust. When he was pulling off, the books was away,away. Now that he's staying on the ball and obviously seeing it well, they'll start busting him and moving his feet. If HoJo can get him through that by helping him keep his hands in and scorch a few down the RF line while not pulling off, then the skills change will start to show - he'll see the ball more consistently and his walk rate should increase and his Ks go back down to his minors numbers. IF ......13 hours 13 min ago
Bat571Matt - I think we are seeing the same things - by keeping his head still and his shoulder closed, he IS seeing the ball better. If he CAN continue to do so, then it will start to show up as a skills change. It hasn't yet, but as he gains confidence, it either will, or he'll start pulling off again and the ball will no longer be seen as clearly, and he'll go back to OPSing .640.13 hours 28 min ago
bsrPut it this way, you can be a snake businessman and get results, and in a competitive field like pro sports...(most) sins will be forgiven for a winner. Nothing terribly wrong with this type of behavior for a F500 exec, it's not like Jack is an ambassador negotiating peace in the Middle East here. But when you don't get results to outweigh the bad behavior...it doesn't look so good.13 hours 34 min ago
bsrWeren't the Yanks all upset a few years back about Z backing out of the Lee for Montero deal last minute when he got Smoak on the line from TX? It's the same snakey behavior as this article is citing. I mean, you can view this all as a vast conspiracy / gamesmanship attempt against the downtrodden M's...or you can take it at face value and see it as Z being called out repeatedly by many sources for being a bush league executive. (With both his peers and his subordinates -- sure he might be a good drafter but that's not about relationships.)13 hours 39 min ago
bsrI don't read the Rosenthal article as an indictment of the ownership group, I read it as a critique of Z. "Rival executives" know what any Mariner GM has to deal with behind the scenes, the situation has been the same for decades. If they thought Z was a decent guy making his best effort to overcome well-known challenges, I can't see why they'd sling mud at him publicly like this. I think we are seeing another indicator, in line w/ Baker's reporting, that Z is an unliked guy and a weak GM. Of course the piece could be off base, but OTOH when's the last time we heard anything good about Z? Where there's multiple plumes of smoke...13 hours 52 min ago
SABR MattLOL...interesting how we came to opposite conclusions even though we're both seeing the same guy and both encouraged with the better looking ABs right now. I'm just not seeing big changes in the component stats that would suggest that there's a real skills change in the works. Makes me think he's seeing the ball real well right now but whatever mechanical changes he's made aren't likely to last.13 hours 54 min ago
Bat571Is that going to be enough to carry lineup weight from LF? Well, he's still better suited in my mind to 2B, but Cano answers that question both ways - Ackley won't displace him, but Robbie hits so well he gives some room for a lighter bat in LF.14 hours 7 min ago
Bat571Ackley: the hitting is real - he looks like he did when he first came up and was putting up decent numbers, before Wedge tried changing him. Whether it's sustainable is a whole different matter. he's tinkered so much with things since he came up, I'm surprised he's back striding into the ball and getting solid, shoulder-driven wood on it. I'd say if he can keep his focus for a few more weeks, pitchers will start pounding him and we'll see if he can keep his shoulder in still. If so, he may be able to be the hitter he should be, a doubles, gap-to-gap hitter with good speed; a perfect #2 or a #6-7 to keep rallies going. A hitter in AAA threatening his job would, in my opinion, help him keep his focus and get him to keep attacking the ball. But HoJo seems to have gotten into his head enough I have some hope.14 hours 8 min ago
SABR Matthis secondary stats haven't changed much from prior seasons. His LD% is down but his ISO is back to career norms rather than paltry like last year. His plate discipline stats are normal for him except that he's generally swinging more often. His walk rate is down with no change in K rate. In the most recent month or so, his K/BB is 12/2 (that's not good) and his ISO is a normal .115 or so. The main change is BABIP, which is normally around .310 for his career but is over .450 during the hot streak with no change in LD%. I'm gonna say...not real.14 hours 26 min ago
gulpThing about Byrd is not only that extra 8 mil when he&amp;#039;s 38, but the Phillies want Maurer or Erasmo AND Guerrero or Wilson for him.... And Byrd kinda seems like a Honda Civic when the gas light comes on... You know you&amp;#039;ve got a little driving time left, but don&amp;#039;t get on the highway14 hours 41 min ago
GLSQuestion for anyone that would like to venture an opinion: is the recent Ackley hitting streak real and sustainable? What's going on there?14 hours 42 min ago
DaddyOYes, YES! There are prospects about to die on the vine if we don't use them for SOME-thing.16 hours 41 min ago
Bat571And the thought of Souza in AAA may help the concentration of Ackley.17 hours 2 min ago
Bat571I'm hoping the first move is Franklin or Noriega+CSmith for Souza. I can see him as the kind of player that could come up in September as an older prospect who takes his chance and runs with it.17 hours 4 min ago