So, Where is Justin Smoak Right Now?

Triangulation, dept.

Q. Smoak has an OPS up 'round 1.000 in September and he has the 5:7 EYE, the improved StrSw% rates, and every other number to back it up. But what does the scouting eye say?

A. :: blinks :: He suddenly realizes that he hadn't watched a Smoak at-bat since the callup ...

Ran off to eyeball Mr. E=M2Cliff Lee on the DVR. Whaaaaaaa? Differn't player here. And when did he start keeping the top hand on the bat, by the way? Did he hit the long homers with that swing? ... sho' nuff ...

Q. Well, so is it the swing or what?

A. The swing isn't really the difference. Well, it's a root cause of the difference, or a parallel cause of the difference at best ...

Wow, Smoak is letting the pitches drive realllly deep on him. He's looking almost John Olerud'ish up there. The pitcher lets the ball go, Smoak sort of tilts his head in a little, takes a good loooooonnnnnnng look, and then unleases a sudden, powerful swing starting from a long bat wrap.

Q. So that would take the ball the other way?

A. Surprisingly, he's letting the ball get much deeper and ... pulling it better, with more authority. Here is his wimpy August spray chart and here is his authoritative September spray chart. Notice too that his groundouts are higher in September as he gets on top of the ball better. Check it out as he smashes the top half of a high Sheppers 94 fastball for a home run.

He's letting the ball come to him and then he is attacking it. It's simply the difference between Rocky doing rope-a-dope, taking a beating, vs. his getting mad grrrrrrr and swinging back. Smoak's longer HR's etc are simply his swinging with bad intentions.

Some things we say represent our personal opinion. That isn't one of them. Read between the lines on Wedge's comments and you'll get the same thing, as far as "doing something with it" when he lets the bat go.

Smoak's doing that now.

Q. So he's ready to hit .358 / .414 / .547 now?

A. Naaaahhhhh... the funny thing is, when a slider or change or curve comes in there on him, he can't see it.

Q. Um, what.

A. He hacks at bendy pitches and misses them by embarrassing margins. We wondered about it and thought.... hm, okay, he's got his thoughts organized. He's not confused now. He has an idea up there. He knows what he wants and he's going after it.

So why the ugly results on offspeed (in this particular game Sunday)? Well..... that's what would happen if your pitch recognition were behind. So we sauntered over to TexasLeaguers.com expecting to find that his swings and misses on fastballs were all real good, and that all of his swings and misses were on curves.

That is the case.

It's the case to a radical degree. In September, he's seen 128 fastballs, swung at 65 of them, and missed the ball a grand total of 6 times. Amazing. In contradistinction, he misses 17% of all changeups thrown and 11% of all sliders. He hasn't put a slider in play in September. 0.0%. On the other hand, he puts 35% of all fastballs thrown into play.

It's just pitch recognition.

Q. Leaving him where?

A. Well, so if this interpretation be true ... Hang on one sec couldja.

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SABR Matt: I think what we have here is a problem telling the difference between Zduriencik's priorities and Wedge's. Liddi didn't spend much time on the big league roster...but when he was here, he played at least four nights a week on a crowded infield. Wedge was ORDERED to play Figgins...he didn't want to do that. I also think some folks should watch how other big league clubs break in their kids. Because if anything, the Mariners are giving MORE playing time to their young players than they'd get anywhere else in their rookie seasons. No doubt Wedge has some biases...he likes guys who put up a professional AB (by which he means, fight for every pitch, don't swing at sucker pitches too much) over guys who have talent but strike out a gazillion times. He likes guys who are "gamers" over guys who are feast or famine types. And he likes a good defensive catcher back there. But the bias is not for old guys over youth12 min 2 sec ago

SABR Matt: Who is "Peterson"? I don't recall a Mariner with that name. Thames started nearly full time for three months, and failed. Wells has failed everywhere he's gone and still can't get regular playing time outside of Seattle. Carp would have been the full time starting LF in 2012 if his body hadn't been broken by astroturf in Japan...his starting status was delayed by ZDURIENCIK, not Wedge.24 min ago

phxterry: Everyone - I actually agree with Gordon on his request -- I don't like to read a stream of negative comments from someone, like me, who has decided that he doesn't like someone or some thing. I think Gordon's request was reasonable in terms of getting the most out of the blog in terms of rational discussion as opposed to emotional venting. So my agreement to comply with his request was done in good faith and understanding of Gordon's intentions, which I believe are positive.38 min 12 sec ago

Colorado Mariner: Gross- it's a free country and a free webpage - your choice what you do and don't read. Why only PHX? Others had as many posts and some of us want to read everyone opinions.43 min 4 sec ago

phxterry: Gordon - request granted - my negative thoughts on Wedgie will not pollute the shout box.59 min 26 sec ago

Gordon Gross: You got it Spec - I'll hop on later and check it out! I'm sure you've got it well covered. ;)1 hour 1 min ago

Gordon Gross: Terry - I accept that. He's crossed the line for you and there's no coming back. Not to be short or rude back, but can I please not read 15 shouts a day about it for every game the rest of the season then?1 hour 2 min ago

Spectator: Gordon, I tossed out a draft post as bait for your comments.1 hour 3 min ago

Colorado Mariner: Thames, Peterson, Liddi, Wells (seemed to always be in Wedggie's doghouse for plays/things that wouldn't put others in the same dog house), Carp, off the top of my head. Oh and the Olivo/Jaso/montero thing is a pretty big example of Wedggie's stubbornness and probably costs us 3-5 wins last year. It's his job to understand his team and this was a huge FAIL even if you choose to look past it.1 hour 15 min ago

SABR Matt: Sorry but...can you name any other examples of a young player literally being fdrozen out of a job after being rostered by Zduriencik? Jaso/Olivo is a sore spot for Mariner fans...I think a somewhat irrational one since Jaso is demonstrating right now that he was never thhat good once overexposed (as was my opinion last year...that Jaso would struggle if used full time behind the plate). I didn't like Olivo, but I'd have been starting Montero, not Jaso. Anyway...name me any other young player thyat didn't get at least two months of starts to prove themself under Wedge?1 hour 20 min ago

Colorado Mariner: Matt - it's your opinion that Wedge is bias against young players is false. Wedge has an irrational love for veteran players to a fault. IMHO and it seems Terry's as well. Jaso last year was mentioned. It seems you don't care for how highly he is/was rated. It can't be disputed that Wedgie played Olivo way to much last year. Had Olivo not gotten hurt Jaso would have never gotten in the lineup. If I remember correctly Wedge didn't start Jaso at catcher for over 25ish games into the season. There's a lot discussed below but I feel the M's are better off without wedge. He does nothing to give this team an edge. Doesn't stand up for his players on the field, we know he can't platoon, no defensive substations, and doesn't seems to get his young players to success.1 hour 22 min ago

phxterry: gordon - don't mean to be short or rude, but repeating myself doesn't make a lot of sense. My views on Wedgie are expressed in my shout of 1 hour and 48 minutes ago and the opinion expressed there is still my opinion: today's bull pen debacle is the final straw in a long line of Wedge sub-optimizations and poor decisions - the sooner he is fired, the happier I will be. My $02.2 hours 16 min ago

rick82: I liked the way Tom picked himself up after the error, and blew away Reynolds. That's the guy I wanted pitching the 10th.2 hours 24 min ago

Gordon Gross: What Matt said. terry... you're really advocating that the guy who blew the save in the 9th and used 22 pitches to do it should be back in the 10th? And that the idea that he WASN'T out there after blowing the save is so outrageous that Wedge should be fired for bullpen mismanagement? If Wilhelmsen had been throwing incredibly well and sawed through the lineup in 12 pitches and it had been a tie game when he got the ball, I get that. But he wasn't throwing that well. I can see an argument for leaving the bartender in... but it's certainly not some egregious failure of intellect to remove a struggling reliever after 1 inning.2 hours 42 min ago

rick82: Or Oliver Perez, with Furbush as LOOGY.3 hours 12 min ago

rick82: I can't disagree with anything you said here Matt. Unlike Wedge, I don't have to worry about the next game, and it's very possible we will find ourselves in a situation as soon as we leave this wretched town in which Tom will be pitching 3-4 straight closing opportunities and in every game going forward, Wedge wants Tom to be able to go 1 inning. I get it. If Tom tweaks something because he's overthrowing and tired in a high leverage situation, and we have another Pryor-type injury, then it's panic time in Seattle, because Wedge needs a proven closer in the bullpen. Right now, were that to happen, I suppose that closer would be...uh...Charlie Furbush.3 hours 14 min ago

SABR Matt: I also am a fan of saying things that are true...it is simply not true that Wedge doesn't use young players. He likes to have SOME veteran presence around in the clubhouse or he feels that things can get out of control quickly...and to his credit, he's seen guys like Bay and Ibanez step up at key moments when the offense was struggling and buy him time to get the team into the fight. That is not to say that I would run it the way he does...but it's just flat false that Wedge has some bias against young players.3 hours 23 min ago

SABR Matt: Rick...I'm not saying I absolutely agree with Wedge on taking out Wilhelmson...but I am saying I can understand why he would do what he did. I think the bottom line is...I don't generally consider it constructive to rant and rave about wanting people fired because the team lost a few one-run games. I mean, last season, the Yankees lost like TWENTY one-run games. :) Every team loses close games...especially .500 clubs that don't have a ton of depth on the big league roster yet due to some ill-timed injuries to young players.3 hours 23 min ago

SABR Matt: terry...he's not saying Furbush is better...he's saying Furbush isn't some AAA fodder...he's a solid lefty reliever who's a little on the wild side lately...and he's also saying that Wilhelmson isn't bulletproof and lately that Tommy has been a bit on the white-knuckle side. He's saying it's not as big a difference as you're making it.3 hours 24 min ago

phxterry: Mal - If you really think that Furbush is a better pitcher than Wilhemsen, have by all means have at it. I would be curious if you could find one, and I mean literally one, knowledgable baseball regular on this blog who would agree with you. We know GMZ and Wedgie don't, or they would have Furbush closing. Let's see if anyone comes forth and supports your position that Furbush is better than Wilhemsen..3 hours 27 min ago

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So, Where is Justin Smoak Right Now?

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So, Where is Justin Smoak Right Now?

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Deconstructing Justin Smoak

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