Public Service Announcement: #2 Draft Picks

Babies and Bathwater, Dept.

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Q.  Is it possible for local fans to over-hype their own prospects?

A.  Asked and answered.

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Q.  Are Seattle fans doing this with Danny Hultzen?

A.  Danny Hultzen was THE NUMBER TWO PICK IN THE ENTIRE DRAFT.

Look, gentlemen, if we were talking about Mike Carp or Alex Liddi or Kyle Seager or Carlos Peguero, that would be one thing.  But don't paint every prospect hopeful with the same "he's just a prospect" brush.  Each year there are four or five super-prospects.

You don't luck into a Danny Hultzen, dump $10.6 million on him, and then lose interest when he walks a few guys in his first pro year.  Draw a distinction between "the kids" and players who are legitimate super-talents.

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Q.  In your mind, who are the M's legitimate "super-talents"?

A.  Dustin Ackley was also the #2 pick in the entire draft.  We're not talking about "in Jeff Clarke's" mind.  Ackley and Hultzen and Mike Zunino were, in their drafts, the BEST hitters and pitchers in the INDUSTRY.  Not among the best.  THE NUMBER ONE players.

Jesus Montero also came with a super-elite pedigree:  he was the TOP hitter in the minors, him and Harper, when Montero was in the minors.  Jack Zduriencik evaluated him as comparable to Albert Pujols.  You don't wander off and lose interest because the kid only hit .295 on the road at 22. 

Taijuan Walker is on a Felix Hernandez career path, give or take half a year.  Consider carefully what you'd have felt like, had we traded Felix at age 19?  James Paxton is better than Hultzen.

Trash the actual prospects, Carp and Liddi and Romero, if you want to.  But keep a sense of proportion on Hultzen, Ackley, Paxton, Taijuan, Zunino, and Jesus Montero.  Those players are a different breed of cat.

Nick Franklin, you could argue about.  But there's no arguing about the Six.

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Q.  Justin Smoak was supposed to be elite.

A.  He was elite.  At this point, there's enough data return to downgrade him.

If your reaction is "Because of Justin Smoak, or Ben Grieve, or Delmon Young, or Sean Burroughs, or Andy Marte, I'm just not interested in 1-1 draft picks any more," then that's on you.

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Q.  Would it be reasonable to trade Jesus Montero for Billy Butler?

A.  Shedding Jesus Montero for Billy Butler --- > could easily become a historically classic blunder in the Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio template.  Bill James once said, 90% of the worst trades in baseball history were like this:  giving up a super-talented youngster for a well-regarded, proven veteran.

Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen, Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb, Sammy Sosa for an aging Harold Baines... 

And in this case, Montero for Butler type concepts, you don't even expect (reliably) that Butler will give you a significant upgrade over Montero NOW.  You can't just use a "all-hope team" logic to paint Jesus Montero with the Mike Carp, Alex Liddi brush.  Montero is a top-10 BBA prospect.

And yet Billy Butler is a legit cleanup hitter.  Consensus is to shed Montero if you get Butler, but I'm totally opposed to that apples-for-apples swap.  If they grab Butler and keep Montero, that's good by me.

..........

Jack Zduriencik's evaluation, at the time of the trade, was that Jesus Montero compared to Albert Pujols.  He's got to stick with that.  

My considered opinion is similar.  Jesus Montero did things with the ball, in 2012, that ARod and Junior didn't do.  He fought off jam pitches for line-drives to right center ... he got on top of 96 fastballs ... he kept the hands back and drove soft stuff to right field ... he showed the ability to square up literally every kind of pitch in every spot of the strike zone.  It's not a cliche.  I'm talking about watching him do it.

I don't say Montero's a guarantee.  I say he's the kind of young player you don't abandon for baubles lying on the side of the road.

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Q.  Should there be untouchables?

A.  Pat Gillick was exceptionally win-now.  But he would create a list of 3-4 players that he simply refused to trade on principle.  He felt it would be a broach of his personal integrity to trade the teenaged Felix Hernandez or Jose Lopez -- yes, those were literal names on his lists -- for the ability to win this year.

The M's are now making noises like they'd package truly elite prospects, in bundles, for Billy Butler types.  Even Gillick wouldn't have done that.  When you have sailed past Pat Gillick in your win-now imperative, you have lost your compass.

If you want the Mariners to increase payroll, to try harder to win, then argue for that.  But don't argue that Montero, Zunino, Ackley and the Big Three are overrated.  They are not.

BABVA,

Dr D

 

 

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Comments

Well we could, if we wanted to forego all trades or free agents and just start kids all over the place. For the third year in a row.

It's not "giving up" on Montero to trade him for Butler. It's moving a good player to get a good player. Yes, they happen to play the same basic position. But Butler IS doing what we want Montero to do. When will Jesus do it? Could be this year, could be 3 years from now. If we don't make the trade and it takes Montero 3 years to get comfortable at DH and rake like he does as a C then Zduriencik is out of a job, Felix is gone, and we're still talking about the next Jason Bay addition.

Timetables matter. I'm still of the opinion that 28 year old Smoak is gonna be destroying a ball for somebody - it just won't be us. It's taking him too long to put it together.

Replacements matter too - it's Jack's fault that we're not using Montero as a catcher going forward. He's the one trying to add Russell Martin and Mike Napoli and who drafted Zunino as the heir to the throne. He punted Pujols The Catcher off the position. Can't keep Montero if there's no place to play him.

Maybe he can play 1B. Personally I think he'd like that more than DH. He seems like a guy who wants to be in the field, not stuck on the bench except for 4 or 5 plate appearances a game. I'd be trying to make Montero into Paul Konerko right NOW, if we aren't gonna let him catch and aren't gonna trade him AS a catcher.

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But no team will give you anything useful if you take your 6 best prospects off the trade list. Well... we might trade Doug Fister for a handful of scrubs, but SMART teams try not to give up the best player in the deal. If Hultzen, Walker, Paxton, Montero, Zunino, and Ackley are off-limits, what's your pitch? "Here, take this guy who just lit up the Cal League from High Desert, like everyone ever. Or maybe this guy, who is either a SS or a 2B and should probably stop switch-hitting. Or maybe our 5th best pitching prospect, who won pitcher of the year in AA, like Beavan. Or hey, Beavan..."

We have better prospects in our top 10 than we used to. The days of trading JC Ramirez, Aumont and a junk CFer for Cliff Lee just because all of em were in our top-10 list are OVER.

So if we're gonna make a trade, then we do it with the knowledge that every top-10 prospect we trade might be Rickie Weeks, or Billy Butler, or Jered Weaver. That's the problem with a good farm system. And this is why I'm not trading 4 of our top 5 prospects, plus Montero, to get Butler and Myers (thread from earlier).

If we don't like the chance of ever losing a good player, then we'd better keep all our prospects. Of course, since we have a top-10 every year that's awesome, even though we promote a handful every year, we're gonna run out of places to play them. And you might notice that RA Dickey won a Cy Young this year - he used to pitch for us. Travis Blackley was a nice part of Oakland's run to the playoff, and he was ours too. Morse, As-Cab, Choo, Morrow... former Mariners are making an impact all over the league.

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Players play well for other teams. As long as we have as good or better players on our team, who cares? The problem with trading a great prospect (or prospects) is getting junk in return. If you trade Mike Trout for Felix Hernandez, that's not a problem right? For this offseason I would prefer to sign Reynolds (and Hamilton, while we're spending other peoples' money), keep Montero, and flood the remainder of the team with all this talented youth. Ackley/ Seager/ Montero/ Hamilton/ Reynolds/ Saunders/ Zunino/ Franklin/ Guti looks pretty good to me.

Then position Romero to play the OF when Guti's contract is up and call it a day. Simple.

But if we wind up trading Franklin, or Paxton, or whomever to fix this team, then that's a call that will hopefully bring a great player here. Not a decent player, but a great one. Our great minor leaguers deserve to be swapped for a great major leaguer, I would think.

And if that happens, and we don't empty the coffers in the process, I'll have trouble complaining about it. Get great players, whether through promotion, trade, or free agency. That's all I'm asking.

Again - simple. *laughs*

~G

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That's one thing ... a Montero and ? package could be argued for Butler... you're dealing a megatalented kid and getting back a player you will be very happy with...

At other websites, the idea is that you trade two or three of these six players for merely decent talent back ...

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Butler, I've said, might be worth Walker and Franklin. And that has always been a "might." It's close.

Mostly I've called for playing the young guys as an investment in a pennant. move 'em up. Let 'em play.

Montero completely mashed LHP last year. He wrecked them. They begged for mercy. Oh, he did it at 22. Oh, he was an adequate catcher, too. Holy snot! What else is a 22-yr old to do? Subtract a Harper or Trout or a Stanton, how many other 22 (or less) year olds did that last year? It's a limited field.

I'm frequently frustrated with the (prevalent) idea that terrific young talent is nothing more than a terrific trade chit, with a somewhat reduced value because they only bring "potential" and not actualy production. Terrific young talent is all of the three. Hang onto as much of it as possible.

We should be finding ways to get the young guns on the field, soon, not ways to ship them elsewhere. If that means a positional change or two, so be it. Steve Garvey was a 3B, until he collided with Ron Cey at that posiiton. Alston easily found a way to play them both. Turn Franklin into a LF or 1B, if he isn't a SS or our 2B. Man, he's gonig to rip 2/3 of the pitchers. That ain't bad. Romero, too. Find a place for him.

Let's go with a bunch of the guys we've got. Some of them are special.

moe

4

They wanted to keep Butler anyway, and we weren't gonna empty the system to add him. I'm cool with that. Like I said, I like Butler, but not at any price.

So who wants to bet that we whiff on Swish and Hamilton, and wind up adding Kubel as the big OF/DH add this winter? After all, let's not be hasty and risk too much.

~G

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Frankly, my dear Scarlett...well, you get the idea. Too many offseasons we have assumed that the scraps being sought (now Dee Gordon?!) are preliminary to THE BIG MOVE. Which, of course, never seems to materialize. Is Jack starting to perspire heavily? Is he going to be forced to prove that the only way to succeed in Seattle is to finish in last place for several years running and then hope like heck that enough of your high draft choices work out that you can keep the wolves at bay?

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I agree on our elite prospects - trading them for a 30-something anything seems foolish. Butler is younger, but I still don't think he provides enough more than Franklin very well could - and Franklin plays a position that we need upgrade at. But then again, Brad Miller is right behind and might be as good an overall player, if he's a better shortstop with a stronger arm. So Franklin is a bit of a tweener for us on upside & need. 

On the other hand, if Franklin and Erasmo Ramirez could get us Wil Myers, who would be one of our younger players, I'd do it, both because we need a RF that can hit, and again, Miller is also ours. If Vargas or Beaven were needed to sweeten it, I'd still say fine -- we would still get back a piece we NEEEEED for pieces we have in-line replacements for. If Stanton were available, I'd empty the locker - 2 of the 4, plus whatever else, but for a young top ten in the majors player, who plays a position of need. But to include any of the Six, or Franklin, or Miller, or Sanchez, for merely a good proven MLBtm player, especially when we really need to see if Smoak and Ackley can do a Saunders, and if Montero can settle in at DH, catching once a week or so, and if any (or all) of the four pitchers can make the leap to the rotation -- nah, I'd rather dance with those we brung. 

Looks like we're signing Bay. I hope he returns to form, but I'm doubtful. I'd be happy now if we traded some useful pieces (one of Pryor/CSmith, plus an A+ level B-/C+ 'spec like Jones?) for a Mike Morse or Logan Morrison, who can play left and back up first base and maybe provide grit in the clubhouse, and then call it a day unless a Myers or Stanton become available. I think Myers IS available, and that KC may exhaust their other possibilities soon. Erasmo and Franklin might look real good when the prices of free agent pitchers get set by Greinke and Sanchez, and Tampa Bay decides they need Hosmer and/or Moustakas along with Myers for their arms.  

If that would come to pass, I would hope that JackZ would spend his FA money on Sanchez, keep the draft pick, and trade the extra arms at the point in the season when other teams have a rotation hole, and maximize our return then. Or, see if Minnesota would give us Aaron Hicks for the arms. When Bay/Morse/Wells/Morrison start to fade, we'd have someone to compete with Landry for the spot.

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pointsette's picture

pointsette

Disagree that Miller is a better SS or has a better arm. I have seen both players in spring training. Franklin is more smooth and plays like he is from the Dominican. Miller is more like a Michael Saunders body type.

I expected more from Miller being older and out of college. Miller needs AT LEAST another year in the hot spot. With his 30+ errors this year would you want him playing SS at the Big League level next year? In fact, there isn't ANY interest in him from other teams. So, we need to sit on him for a while.

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This is an odd year - lots of teams flush with new media revenue; lots of teams with a reasonable expectation of being within striking distance of the wild card. It's kind of a perfect storm for prospect under valuation and veteran over valuation. This is a tough off season to try and trade cheap, unproven players for expensive veterans. The economics of prospects have changed again.

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GLSIcebreaker makes a good point. I wonder what Plan A is?3 hours 26 min ago
bsrIn his last 10 starts, Felix has gone 7 IP / 1 R three times, and gotten a no decision all three times. He's also gone 7 IP / 0 R and 8 / 2, and gotten no decisions. Plus an 8 / 1 game that he lost. That's 6 out of the last 10 starts he dominated, and the hitters blew it for him. Can you imagine the amount of mental and emotional strength he has, to have this happen to him again and again and again, season after season after season after season...and still keep going out there and doing his thing every time? Amazing.3 hours 39 min ago
bsrYep, M's team OPS is 669. Btw, opponents are OPS'ing 684 against Max Scherzer, and 658 against Yu Darvish. Both with similar slash lines to the M's. So basically, the M's lineup (even with 2 of the best hitters in the league), turns all opposing pitchers into a mix of Darvish and Scherzer. No wonder it seems like so many random schlubs have their best games of the season against us! :)3 hours 56 min ago
SABR MattMariners have been running themselves into a ton of outs to kill that OPS differential.5 hours 42 min ago
DaddyOSince the All-Star break, the M's are no looking like a successful small ball team.Too bad. They have the pitching. Despite the prospect of a more seasoned and healthy duo of Paxton/Walker, you can NEVER count on next season's pitching being as good as this one. You've got make hay when you can.6 hours 26 sec ago
rick82Prior to today, M's team OPS was .669, opposing teams .639.6 hours 25 min ago
IcebreakerXIf Kemp is a backup, who is gonna be your Plan A?! GIANCARLO STANTON?! Gotta make it happy thoughts at the least, eh?8 hours 23 min ago
DaddyOFunny, rick82, but while I was fast forwarding through most of the game today I mused to myself: "If the M's are .500 with the best pitching staff in the league, then it stands to reason that all other teams in aggregate are making the M's offense look like the M's pitchers make other offenses look.8 hours 50 min ago
rick82Three straight days of out-hitting the O's. Not much to show for it.10 hours 30 min ago
SABR MattRios talks heating up...four teams with interest - Mariners, Reds, Giants, and Yankees.10 hours 33 min ago
rick82Hart, that is, but Morrison too.10 hours 37 min ago
rick82Britton never bothered throwing him a strike. K'd him easily.10 hours 37 min ago
moethedogAnd when did Morrison morph into Smoak?10 hours 45 min ago
moethedogI didn't see Hart's first AB, the single, but the rest of them have been pretty dismal. At least with Romero I feel he might hit one over the fence. With Hart I feel like he might hit one close to the warning track.10 hours 46 min ago
moethedogI thought the same thing, Matt....How can the most expensive guy they can buy be their "backup" plan? That's like saying, "I think I'll buy a Buick...but the Jaguar is my backup plan!"10 hours 49 min ago
rick82It is definitely his weakness. He can't pull the ball.10 hours 51 min ago
MtGrizzlyJones can't get around on the inside stuff. He's toast if he can't adjust.11 hours 9 min ago
rick82Zunino entered the day at .202, and apparently decided he was NOT going to fall below the Mendoza line. Good call.11 hours 25 min ago
SABR MattLOL...nice one rick. Sounds like the Red Sox are kicking the tires on Kemp but not UBER-interested...they want Joc Pederson. The Mariners are saying they are in fact very interested in Kemp but consider him a "backup plan"...who in the heck could KEMP be a backup plan to??12 hours 9 min ago
rick82Mariners lead league in ERA. Imagine how good it would look if we got to play the Mariners.12 hours 15 min ago