Public Service Announcement: #2 Draft Picks

Babies and Bathwater, Dept.

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Q.  Is it possible for local fans to over-hype their own prospects?

A.  Asked and answered.

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Q.  Are Seattle fans doing this with Danny Hultzen?

A.  Danny Hultzen was THE NUMBER TWO PICK IN THE ENTIRE DRAFT.

Look, gentlemen, if we were talking about Mike Carp or Alex Liddi or Kyle Seager or Carlos Peguero, that would be one thing.  But don't paint every prospect hopeful with the same "he's just a prospect" brush.  Each year there are four or five super-prospects.

You don't luck into a Danny Hultzen, dump $10.6 million on him, and then lose interest when he walks a few guys in his first pro year.  Draw a distinction between "the kids" and players who are legitimate super-talents.

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Q.  In your mind, who are the M's legitimate "super-talents"?

A.  Dustin Ackley was also the #2 pick in the entire draft.  We're not talking about "in Jeff Clarke's" mind.  Ackley and Hultzen and Mike Zunino were, in their drafts, the BEST hitters and pitchers in the INDUSTRY.  Not among the best.  THE NUMBER ONE players.

Jesus Montero also came with a super-elite pedigree:  he was the TOP hitter in the minors, him and Harper, when Montero was in the minors.  Jack Zduriencik evaluated him as comparable to Albert Pujols.  You don't wander off and lose interest because the kid only hit .295 on the road at 22. 

Taijuan Walker is on a Felix Hernandez career path, give or take half a year.  Consider carefully what you'd have felt like, had we traded Felix at age 19?  James Paxton is better than Hultzen.

Trash the actual prospects, Carp and Liddi and Romero, if you want to.  But keep a sense of proportion on Hultzen, Ackley, Paxton, Taijuan, Zunino, and Jesus Montero.  Those players are a different breed of cat.

Nick Franklin, you could argue about.  But there's no arguing about the Six.

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Q.  Justin Smoak was supposed to be elite.

A.  He was elite.  At this point, there's enough data return to downgrade him.

If your reaction is "Because of Justin Smoak, or Ben Grieve, or Delmon Young, or Sean Burroughs, or Andy Marte, I'm just not interested in 1-1 draft picks any more," then that's on you.

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Q.  Would it be reasonable to trade Jesus Montero for Billy Butler?

A.  Shedding Jesus Montero for Billy Butler --- > could easily become a historically classic blunder in the Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio template.  Bill James once said, 90% of the worst trades in baseball history were like this:  giving up a super-talented youngster for a well-regarded, proven veteran.

Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen, Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb, Sammy Sosa for an aging Harold Baines... 

And in this case, Montero for Butler type concepts, you don't even expect (reliably) that Butler will give you a significant upgrade over Montero NOW.  You can't just use a "all-hope team" logic to paint Jesus Montero with the Mike Carp, Alex Liddi brush.  Montero is a top-10 BBA prospect.

And yet Billy Butler is a legit cleanup hitter.  Consensus is to shed Montero if you get Butler, but I'm totally opposed to that apples-for-apples swap.  If they grab Butler and keep Montero, that's good by me.

..........

Jack Zduriencik's evaluation, at the time of the trade, was that Jesus Montero compared to Albert Pujols.  He's got to stick with that.  

My considered opinion is similar.  Jesus Montero did things with the ball, in 2012, that ARod and Junior didn't do.  He fought off jam pitches for line-drives to right center ... he got on top of 96 fastballs ... he kept the hands back and drove soft stuff to right field ... he showed the ability to square up literally every kind of pitch in every spot of the strike zone.  It's not a cliche.  I'm talking about watching him do it.

I don't say Montero's a guarantee.  I say he's the kind of young player you don't abandon for baubles lying on the side of the road.

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Q.  Should there be untouchables?

A.  Pat Gillick was exceptionally win-now.  But he would create a list of 3-4 players that he simply refused to trade on principle.  He felt it would be a broach of his personal integrity to trade the teenaged Felix Hernandez or Jose Lopez -- yes, those were literal names on his lists -- for the ability to win this year.

The M's are now making noises like they'd package truly elite prospects, in bundles, for Billy Butler types.  Even Gillick wouldn't have done that.  When you have sailed past Pat Gillick in your win-now imperative, you have lost your compass.

If you want the Mariners to increase payroll, to try harder to win, then argue for that.  But don't argue that Montero, Zunino, Ackley and the Big Three are overrated.  They are not.

BABVA,

Dr D

 

 

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Comments

Well we could, if we wanted to forego all trades or free agents and just start kids all over the place. For the third year in a row.

It's not "giving up" on Montero to trade him for Butler. It's moving a good player to get a good player. Yes, they happen to play the same basic position. But Butler IS doing what we want Montero to do. When will Jesus do it? Could be this year, could be 3 years from now. If we don't make the trade and it takes Montero 3 years to get comfortable at DH and rake like he does as a C then Zduriencik is out of a job, Felix is gone, and we're still talking about the next Jason Bay addition.

Timetables matter. I'm still of the opinion that 28 year old Smoak is gonna be destroying a ball for somebody - it just won't be us. It's taking him too long to put it together.

Replacements matter too - it's Jack's fault that we're not using Montero as a catcher going forward. He's the one trying to add Russell Martin and Mike Napoli and who drafted Zunino as the heir to the throne. He punted Pujols The Catcher off the position. Can't keep Montero if there's no place to play him.

Maybe he can play 1B. Personally I think he'd like that more than DH. He seems like a guy who wants to be in the field, not stuck on the bench except for 4 or 5 plate appearances a game. I'd be trying to make Montero into Paul Konerko right NOW, if we aren't gonna let him catch and aren't gonna trade him AS a catcher.

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But no team will give you anything useful if you take your 6 best prospects off the trade list. Well... we might trade Doug Fister for a handful of scrubs, but SMART teams try not to give up the best player in the deal. If Hultzen, Walker, Paxton, Montero, Zunino, and Ackley are off-limits, what's your pitch? "Here, take this guy who just lit up the Cal League from High Desert, like everyone ever. Or maybe this guy, who is either a SS or a 2B and should probably stop switch-hitting. Or maybe our 5th best pitching prospect, who won pitcher of the year in AA, like Beavan. Or hey, Beavan..."

We have better prospects in our top 10 than we used to. The days of trading JC Ramirez, Aumont and a junk CFer for Cliff Lee just because all of em were in our top-10 list are OVER.

So if we're gonna make a trade, then we do it with the knowledge that every top-10 prospect we trade might be Rickie Weeks, or Billy Butler, or Jered Weaver. That's the problem with a good farm system. And this is why I'm not trading 4 of our top 5 prospects, plus Montero, to get Butler and Myers (thread from earlier).

If we don't like the chance of ever losing a good player, then we'd better keep all our prospects. Of course, since we have a top-10 every year that's awesome, even though we promote a handful every year, we're gonna run out of places to play them. And you might notice that RA Dickey won a Cy Young this year - he used to pitch for us. Travis Blackley was a nice part of Oakland's run to the playoff, and he was ours too. Morse, As-Cab, Choo, Morrow... former Mariners are making an impact all over the league.

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Players play well for other teams. As long as we have as good or better players on our team, who cares? The problem with trading a great prospect (or prospects) is getting junk in return. If you trade Mike Trout for Felix Hernandez, that's not a problem right? For this offseason I would prefer to sign Reynolds (and Hamilton, while we're spending other peoples' money), keep Montero, and flood the remainder of the team with all this talented youth. Ackley/ Seager/ Montero/ Hamilton/ Reynolds/ Saunders/ Zunino/ Franklin/ Guti looks pretty good to me.

Then position Romero to play the OF when Guti's contract is up and call it a day. Simple.

But if we wind up trading Franklin, or Paxton, or whomever to fix this team, then that's a call that will hopefully bring a great player here. Not a decent player, but a great one. Our great minor leaguers deserve to be swapped for a great major leaguer, I would think.

And if that happens, and we don't empty the coffers in the process, I'll have trouble complaining about it. Get great players, whether through promotion, trade, or free agency. That's all I'm asking.

Again - simple. *laughs*

~G

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That's one thing ... a Montero and ? package could be argued for Butler... you're dealing a megatalented kid and getting back a player you will be very happy with...

At other websites, the idea is that you trade two or three of these six players for merely decent talent back ...

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Butler, I've said, might be worth Walker and Franklin. And that has always been a "might." It's close.

Mostly I've called for playing the young guys as an investment in a pennant. move 'em up. Let 'em play.

Montero completely mashed LHP last year. He wrecked them. They begged for mercy. Oh, he did it at 22. Oh, he was an adequate catcher, too. Holy snot! What else is a 22-yr old to do? Subtract a Harper or Trout or a Stanton, how many other 22 (or less) year olds did that last year? It's a limited field.

I'm frequently frustrated with the (prevalent) idea that terrific young talent is nothing more than a terrific trade chit, with a somewhat reduced value because they only bring "potential" and not actualy production. Terrific young talent is all of the three. Hang onto as much of it as possible.

We should be finding ways to get the young guns on the field, soon, not ways to ship them elsewhere. If that means a positional change or two, so be it. Steve Garvey was a 3B, until he collided with Ron Cey at that posiiton. Alston easily found a way to play them both. Turn Franklin into a LF or 1B, if he isn't a SS or our 2B. Man, he's gonig to rip 2/3 of the pitchers. That ain't bad. Romero, too. Find a place for him.

Let's go with a bunch of the guys we've got. Some of them are special.

moe

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They wanted to keep Butler anyway, and we weren't gonna empty the system to add him. I'm cool with that. Like I said, I like Butler, but not at any price.

So who wants to bet that we whiff on Swish and Hamilton, and wind up adding Kubel as the big OF/DH add this winter? After all, let's not be hasty and risk too much.

~G

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Frankly, my dear Scarlett...well, you get the idea. Too many offseasons we have assumed that the scraps being sought (now Dee Gordon?!) are preliminary to THE BIG MOVE. Which, of course, never seems to materialize. Is Jack starting to perspire heavily? Is he going to be forced to prove that the only way to succeed in Seattle is to finish in last place for several years running and then hope like heck that enough of your high draft choices work out that you can keep the wolves at bay?

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I agree on our elite prospects - trading them for a 30-something anything seems foolish. Butler is younger, but I still don't think he provides enough more than Franklin very well could - and Franklin plays a position that we need upgrade at. But then again, Brad Miller is right behind and might be as good an overall player, if he's a better shortstop with a stronger arm. So Franklin is a bit of a tweener for us on upside & need. 

On the other hand, if Franklin and Erasmo Ramirez could get us Wil Myers, who would be one of our younger players, I'd do it, both because we need a RF that can hit, and again, Miller is also ours. If Vargas or Beaven were needed to sweeten it, I'd still say fine -- we would still get back a piece we NEEEEED for pieces we have in-line replacements for. If Stanton were available, I'd empty the locker - 2 of the 4, plus whatever else, but for a young top ten in the majors player, who plays a position of need. But to include any of the Six, or Franklin, or Miller, or Sanchez, for merely a good proven MLBtm player, especially when we really need to see if Smoak and Ackley can do a Saunders, and if Montero can settle in at DH, catching once a week or so, and if any (or all) of the four pitchers can make the leap to the rotation -- nah, I'd rather dance with those we brung. 

Looks like we're signing Bay. I hope he returns to form, but I'm doubtful. I'd be happy now if we traded some useful pieces (one of Pryor/CSmith, plus an A+ level B-/C+ 'spec like Jones?) for a Mike Morse or Logan Morrison, who can play left and back up first base and maybe provide grit in the clubhouse, and then call it a day unless a Myers or Stanton become available. I think Myers IS available, and that KC may exhaust their other possibilities soon. Erasmo and Franklin might look real good when the prices of free agent pitchers get set by Greinke and Sanchez, and Tampa Bay decides they need Hosmer and/or Moustakas along with Myers for their arms.  

If that would come to pass, I would hope that JackZ would spend his FA money on Sanchez, keep the draft pick, and trade the extra arms at the point in the season when other teams have a rotation hole, and maximize our return then. Or, see if Minnesota would give us Aaron Hicks for the arms. When Bay/Morse/Wells/Morrison start to fade, we'd have someone to compete with Landry for the spot.

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pointsette's picture

pointsette

Disagree that Miller is a better SS or has a better arm. I have seen both players in spring training. Franklin is more smooth and plays like he is from the Dominican. Miller is more like a Michael Saunders body type.

I expected more from Miller being older and out of college. Miller needs AT LEAST another year in the hot spot. With his 30+ errors this year would you want him playing SS at the Big League level next year? In fact, there isn't ANY interest in him from other teams. So, we need to sit on him for a while.

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This is an odd year - lots of teams flush with new media revenue; lots of teams with a reasonable expectation of being within striking distance of the wild card. It's kind of a perfect storm for prospect under valuation and veteran over valuation. This is a tough off season to try and trade cheap, unproven players for expensive veterans. The economics of prospects have changed again.

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DaddyOWhen Baker came to Seattle he figured out what this franchise was all about and proceeded to hammer on it's deficiencies over and over and over again until many got sick of hearing about it. But Baker did something no Mariners beat writer had ever done before...investigative reporting. He did his homework, and he didn't pull his punches in order to retain access, something every M's beat writer had previously done, and something characteristic of the current crop of writers. Baker was like a predator who, once locked onto his prey, wouldn't let go. As such, yes, there were times where it seemed like he was in a feeding frenzy (a sort of insanity). But I'd take Baker over any other Mariners' beat writer in history.29 min 7 sec ago
moethedogDelete "At least one will be" in the last shout. Sigh....33 min 36 sec ago
moethedogThe daily Jackson report is really good: DJ with two hits including a homer. Pizzano with three hits, he's clearly found his stroke or isn't getting bad luck BABIP'ed anymore. Kivlehan with 2 hits, a double and a triple. I'm willing to bet that two of those three guys make an impact in Seattle. At least one will be Paolini only had one hit but it was his 26th double. Landuzuri gives up 5 hits in 7 innings. Now 5-2.9 hours 47 min ago
moethedogMatt, I'll disagree. The guy is rusty, clearly not in mid-season form and yet he just allowed two hits, no more. Young pitchers figure out the walk deal. They rarely lose the stuff deal.9 hours 59 min ago
merksLooks like the M's won an additional draft pick next year after the 2nd round from the competitive balance draft today. It's the type of draft pick that can be traded which is pretty cool in theory.12 hours 8 min ago
tjmThe Colon comp isn't Chris Young, it's Greg Maddux - same pitch mix, same late movement. You can pitch approximately forever with this stuff. And, if it escaped our attention, Baker was compltely insane. As Doc sez, I mean that in a good way. Guy's a bad dog working a bone. don't go near him.12 hours 17 min ago
MtGrizzlyDivish wants to be a sportswriter. Baker wanted more. And got it because he worked his toosh off while on the M's beat.12 hours 19 min ago
DaddyObsr, I COMPLETELY agree re: Baker. Divish simply does not produce the quantity or quality of content that Baker did. I can't figure out why, cause he shows at TNT that he had the chops. Apparently he just doesn't work as hard as Baker did.12 hours 34 min ago
IcebreakerXJudging from the shoutbox, Walker is sounding like a Rafael Soriano redux. Which must also mean we'll trade him for Jason Hammel.12 hours 38 min ago
mojicianI can't take many more of these recklessly tweeted rumors that are loosely based on anonymous triple hearsay connecting and disconnecting the Mariners to good baseball players: "Sources say that a rival exec thinks that Stanton would be a good fit for the Mariners and Seattle might be interested.".............Can some one PM me if the Mariners sign someone? @Wentmlbrumorinsane13 hours 7 min ago
bsrMan do I miss Baker on the M's beat. I know I for one took for granted his incredible productivity as a writer and analyst. It's like a sleepy ghost town over at the ST M's blog since he left. Dutton and Drayer put out the occasional analysis piece but it's mostly just the daily facts. There's nowhere to get much insider M's analysis these days.13 hours 16 min ago
DaddyOColon, of course, was working the edges.13 hours 49 min ago
DaddyOYou know, that's my impression too. When guys like Smoak and Ackley get meatball fastballs, center cut, they mostly flat out miss 'em. I'm sympathetic when I see a guy who's struggling get rung up on a pitch well off the plate, but if you can't hit centered fastballs with at least average regularity you have no business being at the plate.13 hours 49 min ago
MtGrizzlyI can't remember a team that hits the FB worse than this M's team. Really pathetic.14 hours 12 min ago
phxterrySince 7/3/14, M's are 6-10, losing 4 out of 5 series, including series losses to the White Sox, the Twinkies, and the Mets. In that 16 game stretch, the M's are scoring runs at the rate of 2.16 runs/9 innings. The M's play games on 17 out of the next 18 days, with 13 of those games against teams with records above .500. Before tonight's games, the M's lead in the second WC race is down to 1 game, and it could shrink tonight. If the M's continue their current losing ways over the next 2.5 weeks, they will be out of the WC race.15 hours 5 min ago
DaddyOA-NOTH-er game where we finished a buck short because of pathetic offense. A-NOTH-er season of offensive frustration. A-NOTH-er season where obvious position player holes have been allowed to just continue and continue. This is ridiculous. And yes, rick82, it was clear that Taijuan's beaning of that Mets hitter threw him off his game. He was sailing after the first inning until that moment.15 hours 30 min ago
rick82Happy Felix/Kuma weekend...I pray.15 hours 35 min ago
rick82I didn't see the game, but looking at the details, it looks like Taijuan started rough, really righted the ship, and after he hit Tejada really struggled with his control. I wonder if hitting the guy threw him off his game and made him tentative. Also, yeah, he's still struggling, but Hart is giving good at bats in late game situations the last two days. I've seen enough Smoak, tiring of LoMo but we need a left handed bat not owned by Chavez on the bench. Hart at first, Montero DH, LoMo as situation calls for it, and then see what Santa brings for August.15 hours 36 min ago
jemanjiOne thing a game like today's -- oops, a 2 weeks like today's -- is create an unpleasant buzz around baseball, that the Mariners are ineptly wasting a good season …. driving them to "get across the finish line" for a couple bats. Or not ...16 hours 54 min ago
jemanjiChris Young has been doing this shtick to everybody else for about 20 starts … don't dish it out if you can't eat it … :- )16 hours 56 min ago