POTD Hisashi Iwakuma - the Cone, Mussina, Hudson family

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Q.  Okay -- a located 90 fastball, two breaking pitches one left and one right, and a wipeout forkball.  Who is like that in the majors?

A.  Also known as the Mike Mussina / David Cone type family.  Precious few pitchers execute 4+ pitches effectively.  Precious fewer do it while using a forkball.

Here is the complete list of the ten ML pitchers who, at any time during 2009-11, threw 10% forkballs or more (Iwakuma throws 20%).  As you can see, there are varying degrees of competence within any given family ...

 

SP % forks, splits
Halladay 16%
Penny 14%
Kuroda 14%
Pelfrey 13%
Haren 13%
Dempster 12%
Hudson 6%
Jeff Neimann 10% in 2012
Zambrano 15% in 2009
Iwakuma 20%

 

As a group, these guys make a fair amount of money, especially in All-Star bonuses.  

There you go.  That is the list of ML pitchers who feature splitfinger and forkball pitches.  As you can see, it's a template that leads the template field.

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COMMENTS:

Zambrano - featured the split in 2009 and 2010 only during his career, running 3.77 and 3.33 ERA's in Wrigley Field

Neimann - Borderline if he belongs here; features FB and power curve 85%, mixes in slider and fork a bit. Good pitcher.  

Halladay - throws four pitches in David Cone style:  FB 25%, cutter/slider 45%, fork 15%, and curve 15%.  What a template

Penny - Has no glove-side breaking pitch (no slider or cutter).  Everything is FB, curve, fork

Kuroda - Borderline if he belongs here.  Very weird 3-pitch arsenal:  Fastball, slider, forkball.  Excellent SP

Dempster - See Kuroda

Mike Pelfrey - Uses Kuroda arsenal.  Along with Ryan Franklin, serves as the bottom floor of what this kind of SP can be

Haren - 3 pitches like Kuroda ... instead of FB-SL-SF, uses FB-cutter-SF, which is far more effective

Nolasco - true 4-pitch, forkball SP.  Would be a star except for execution from the stretch (terrible ERA with RISP)

Tim Hudson - also a true 4-pitch guy at this point

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It's possible that F/X will wind up seeing Hisashi Iwakuma as a 3-pitch guy, if it reads his Shuuto as a fastball.  But if it did, it would still see the ratios as 50% fastball, 25% slider, 25% forkball - many fewer FB's than the other guys' cutters and FB's combined.

(By the way, I was surprised to see that Dice-K came to America and stopped throwing slow stuff.  It was all fastball-cutter-slider, three pitches instead of four or five.  Sigggghhhh.)

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Q.  Is our old friend Ryan Franklin in this category?

A.  As a starter, he was the lower boundary for this category, but Franklin was an extreme flyball pitcher.  Iwakuma is a groundball pitcher.

Honestly, you've got a ways to go to --- > find a 4-pitch "Polished Pro" guy with a forkball, who throws grounders.  It's just a very sophisticated game, one that is difficult to execute, and obviously difficult to hit.

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Q.  So who are Iwakuma's comparables?

A.  He is in the Mussina / Cone family, but red-shifted towards ground balls.  None of these other guys throw a GB-happy Shuuto.  Also, Iwakuma's splitter induces a bizarro GB ratio, and even the FB gets topped.  Iwakuma's GB ratio is over 2:1.

If you're using GB + Diverse Arsenal as the paradigm, you get Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe and Trevor Cahill.

All things considered, I'd go with Hudson as the best comp ... if Hudson threw 20% forks.

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Q.  Is this template really such a slam dunk?

A.  If Iwakuma were becoming an Oakland Athletic, my main hope would be that he wasn't going to execute his pitches crisply in 2012.  I wouldn't hold out a lot of hope that his game, properly executed, wouldn't work.

If Iwakuma throws his shuuto the way he does on YouTube, and if he locates his fastball, and if he mixes his pitches 40-20-20-20, he is going to be effective.

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Klat Categories: 

Comments

Taro, IceX ...Q on Iwakuma's velocity ...

He came back quickly last year on the shoulder, and at times was down to 86 mph ... I think his last start was 86 average and the one before that, 89 or somesuch.

At 89 mph he is an impact pitcher in the bigs ... Jered Weaver is frequently 88-90 mph and it hurts him not one whit...

If Iwamura is tossing 85-87 mph that is a different situation; that makes him Brad Radke plus a forkball ... also a good pitcher, probably, but it makes his job easier if the hitters have to respect his fastball to some extent ...

You have a feel for where Iwakuma is likely to be, after a winter off?

1

Taro's picture

Taro

Velocity declined late in the season and hes never been durable with the arsenal and mechanics. Early-mid season he was the same guy hes always been.

Good buy low IMO, but fragile and needs to be treated such.

He needs to be babied. Skipped starts occasionally, pulled quicker, etc.

2

Just how we pictured it ...

Reminds of Cone and Mussina as they got on in their careers.  The combination of tilted slider, and the splitfinger or knuckle curve, takes a lot out of the shoulder.

Cone and Mussina, even on their very last legs, weren't exactly Anthony Vazquezes :- )

3

Looks like the M's are going to land him. Iwamura himself stated that his best fit is in Seattle and is closest to signing a deal to play there.

This is a great move. He sounds like quality player yet shouldn't cost a ton because he prefers Seattle and there isn't much of a market for him. Could be one of the best value signings of the offseason. This will increase the team's flexibility since they can more comfortably trade away their young pitching. And if they keep all of their pitchers there won't be as great a need to rush them.

It should also give Jack more leverage with Fielder, since he can say that he already has made a big aquisition and so he doesn't need to sign another major free agent.

4

Taro's picture

Taro

I'm with Doc on this one. I think Iwakuma is a very nice value signing and he wants to come to Seattle. As long as you baby him.

I'd take Iwakuma in the middle-end of that list Doc.

Nevermind on Cespedes. After watching more vid of him hitting not as sold on the bat.

5

Hey CPB, Taro -

Suppose you're playing fantasy baseball next year, and Iwakuma is throwing an easy 89-91 next spring -

Where do you take Iwakuma on draft day 2012, cf. to Latos, Bedard, Gio, Matt Garza, Buehrle, Saunders, Dempster, Fister and whoever ...

6

Hershiser + 5 mph at this point.

The guy was bitten by a radioactive giraffe.  Once every 3 starts he leaps a plateau.

8

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Gordon GrossNot just a win, but a climbing-out-of-the-grave, walk-off win, AND a day off to process and BREATHE. If the hitters can come back afterward and hit, maybe we've got something. If we'd lost a sweep to the 'Stros after being swept by the Marlins and losing the last three to Texas, I would have started shoveling dirt. Maybe after the weekend we'll get out the shovels again, but right now it sure feels like life in the season. C'mon boys, win another on Friday.9 min 4 sec ago
DaddyOWhat the M's do in the aftermath of this big win may determine the course of this season. Admittedly the win was only against the Astros, sometimes all it takes is a spark to fire up a struggling team. I wouldn't go so far as to predict it, but I can hope.42 min 49 sec ago
moethedogAlmonte report (because I can't resist): Last 13 games: 11-56 w/ 21 K's and 0 BB's. Oh, Blash with a single and two more BB's today. Got to give Young props for gutting it up today, too.44 min 38 sec ago
JDDubInteresting rick! Seager is one of our purest hitters and it was only a matter of time before he busted out. Hit another just foul the other day. Coming into the game 10BB was good, 17K a bit high. He's still not into his prime and maybe some day soon he'll replicate some of his minor league numbers like 300/400/500.48 min 45 sec ago
SpectatorI was thinking during the 11-pitch AB that maybe it could be the turning point of the whole season. Let's hope.59 min 15 sec ago
rick82But I absolutely loved the Seager at bat on the first homer. What a manly at bat that was: fouling off pitch after pitch until he got one to drive.1 hour 11 min ago
rick82Divish was on the radio today or yesterday saying that Seager's swing looked a little too long and complicated lately, and suggested it could be because he was overused last season, not getting rest, and started compensating for his dwindling power. He did some lower trunk strengthening work in the offseason to help with this season, but that when players get tired (or injured) and overcompensate, they fall into bad habits (could this be Miggy's problem as well). It would be interesting to have a breakdown of Seager's swing, from, say last week, and today.1 hour 14 min ago
JDDubI'd wait on that G! Our starting pitching is scary deep. Maurer looked so promising the other day. ERam, Young and Elias can do enough to give us a chance most nights. We HAVE to keep juggling these hitters around until something clicks.1 hour 34 min ago
Gordon GrossI look forward to writing that one, JD. Let's absolutely see if I can bore some people to tears writing about exciting baseball for once. If we'd lost this game I was gonna post a big Draft piece just to stick a fork in this year, but now I think I'll wait a bit longer. Hopefully after our upcoming 9 game winning streak the draft piece will be anticipatory instead of dirge-y.1 hour 38 min ago
rick82Good to see Cano, Hart, and Seager put an end to this losing streak. They are our most accomplished hitters and needed to step up and make a statement.1 hour 43 min ago
JDDubI'm going to save my money for the sequel, the rise of Z and the turnaround after he was left for dead. It all started when he FINALLY admitted defeat and swapped Smoak out of the lineup. The emergence of Brandon Maurer and overdue tryout for JJ in CF got the wheels rolling smoothly again. As spring turned to summer Paxton, Walker, Peterson, Choi and Elias led a wild run rivaling the exhilarating summer of 95.1 hour 45 min ago
moethedogFly out, ground out, K, K! Almonte is broken. But atta boy Seags! Prove me wrong...I would have sat your rear today.1 hour 46 min ago
rick82Yes, JDDub, you'll find it in the footnote section of Gordon's exhaustive look at the fall of the Zduriencik Empire, a three volume set...but your's at the low low price of $9.95 per month. But wait, call today and he'll throw in an easy reading Children's version, with no scary pictures of Chone Figgins or Joe Saunders - just cuddly cute ducks enjoying a tax subsidized natural environment.1 hour 53 min ago
JDDubYes I remember the Fields situation well. Directed to Rick :)1 hour 55 min ago
Gordon GrossHey, my feed finally caught up to you guys. M'S WIN! My pink elephant jinx worked. FINALLY. Thank you Seager. So much. Might have changed the season there. Seager with a 5 RBI game and a walk-off to take the hephalump-sized monkey off the Ms back before the off day.2 hours 49 sec ago
rick82Yes! One of Z's moves pays off for us! Way to call it, Padna!2 hours 1 min ago
Gordon GrossI really hate the Ms getting my hopes up this way. Also, JDDub, the reason Fields is one of Zs failures is not that he drafted him (Bavasi did that) but that he signed him, instead of getting the draft slot back in the 2009 draft. We could have had Mike Trout with that pick. THAT's the Fields tragedy.2 hours 3 min ago
SABR Mattwow. just wow.2 hours 4 min ago
rick82OMG! Who are these guys, and where on earth have you been?2 hours 4 min ago
okdanATTA BABY, SEAGER!2 hours 5 min ago