POTD Hisashi Iwakuma - the Cone, Mussina, Hudson family

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Q.  Okay -- a located 90 fastball, two breaking pitches one left and one right, and a wipeout forkball.  Who is like that in the majors?

A.  Also known as the Mike Mussina / David Cone type family.  Precious few pitchers execute 4+ pitches effectively.  Precious fewer do it while using a forkball.

Here is the complete list of the ten ML pitchers who, at any time during 2009-11, threw 10% forkballs or more (Iwakuma throws 20%).  As you can see, there are varying degrees of competence within any given family ...

 

SP % forks, splits
Halladay 16%
Penny 14%
Kuroda 14%
Pelfrey 13%
Haren 13%
Dempster 12%
Hudson 6%
Jeff Neimann 10% in 2012
Zambrano 15% in 2009
Iwakuma 20%

 

As a group, these guys make a fair amount of money, especially in All-Star bonuses.  

There you go.  That is the list of ML pitchers who feature splitfinger and forkball pitches.  As you can see, it's a template that leads the template field.

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COMMENTS:

Zambrano - featured the split in 2009 and 2010 only during his career, running 3.77 and 3.33 ERA's in Wrigley Field

Neimann - Borderline if he belongs here; features FB and power curve 85%, mixes in slider and fork a bit. Good pitcher.  

Halladay - throws four pitches in David Cone style:  FB 25%, cutter/slider 45%, fork 15%, and curve 15%.  What a template

Penny - Has no glove-side breaking pitch (no slider or cutter).  Everything is FB, curve, fork

Kuroda - Borderline if he belongs here.  Very weird 3-pitch arsenal:  Fastball, slider, forkball.  Excellent SP

Dempster - See Kuroda

Mike Pelfrey - Uses Kuroda arsenal.  Along with Ryan Franklin, serves as the bottom floor of what this kind of SP can be

Haren - 3 pitches like Kuroda ... instead of FB-SL-SF, uses FB-cutter-SF, which is far more effective

Nolasco - true 4-pitch, forkball SP.  Would be a star except for execution from the stretch (terrible ERA with RISP)

Tim Hudson - also a true 4-pitch guy at this point

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It's possible that F/X will wind up seeing Hisashi Iwakuma as a 3-pitch guy, if it reads his Shuuto as a fastball.  But if it did, it would still see the ratios as 50% fastball, 25% slider, 25% forkball - many fewer FB's than the other guys' cutters and FB's combined.

(By the way, I was surprised to see that Dice-K came to America and stopped throwing slow stuff.  It was all fastball-cutter-slider, three pitches instead of four or five.  Sigggghhhh.)

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Q.  Is our old friend Ryan Franklin in this category?

A.  As a starter, he was the lower boundary for this category, but Franklin was an extreme flyball pitcher.  Iwakuma is a groundball pitcher.

Honestly, you've got a ways to go to --- > find a 4-pitch "Polished Pro" guy with a forkball, who throws grounders.  It's just a very sophisticated game, one that is difficult to execute, and obviously difficult to hit.

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Q.  So who are Iwakuma's comparables?

A.  He is in the Mussina / Cone family, but red-shifted towards ground balls.  None of these other guys throw a GB-happy Shuuto.  Also, Iwakuma's splitter induces a bizarro GB ratio, and even the FB gets topped.  Iwakuma's GB ratio is over 2:1.

If you're using GB + Diverse Arsenal as the paradigm, you get Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe and Trevor Cahill.

All things considered, I'd go with Hudson as the best comp ... if Hudson threw 20% forks.

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Q.  Is this template really such a slam dunk?

A.  If Iwakuma were becoming an Oakland Athletic, my main hope would be that he wasn't going to execute his pitches crisply in 2012.  I wouldn't hold out a lot of hope that his game, properly executed, wouldn't work.

If Iwakuma throws his shuuto the way he does on YouTube, and if he locates his fastball, and if he mixes his pitches 40-20-20-20, he is going to be effective.

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Klat Categories: 

Comments

Taro, IceX ...Q on Iwakuma's velocity ...

He came back quickly last year on the shoulder, and at times was down to 86 mph ... I think his last start was 86 average and the one before that, 89 or somesuch.

At 89 mph he is an impact pitcher in the bigs ... Jered Weaver is frequently 88-90 mph and it hurts him not one whit...

If Iwamura is tossing 85-87 mph that is a different situation; that makes him Brad Radke plus a forkball ... also a good pitcher, probably, but it makes his job easier if the hitters have to respect his fastball to some extent ...

You have a feel for where Iwakuma is likely to be, after a winter off?

1

Taro's picture

Taro

Velocity declined late in the season and hes never been durable with the arsenal and mechanics. Early-mid season he was the same guy hes always been.

Good buy low IMO, but fragile and needs to be treated such.

He needs to be babied. Skipped starts occasionally, pulled quicker, etc.

2

Just how we pictured it ...

Reminds of Cone and Mussina as they got on in their careers.  The combination of tilted slider, and the splitfinger or knuckle curve, takes a lot out of the shoulder.

Cone and Mussina, even on their very last legs, weren't exactly Anthony Vazquezes :- )

3

Looks like the M's are going to land him. Iwamura himself stated that his best fit is in Seattle and is closest to signing a deal to play there.

This is a great move. He sounds like quality player yet shouldn't cost a ton because he prefers Seattle and there isn't much of a market for him. Could be one of the best value signings of the offseason. This will increase the team's flexibility since they can more comfortably trade away their young pitching. And if they keep all of their pitchers there won't be as great a need to rush them.

It should also give Jack more leverage with Fielder, since he can say that he already has made a big aquisition and so he doesn't need to sign another major free agent.

4

Taro's picture

Taro

I'm with Doc on this one. I think Iwakuma is a very nice value signing and he wants to come to Seattle. As long as you baby him.

I'd take Iwakuma in the middle-end of that list Doc.

Nevermind on Cespedes. After watching more vid of him hitting not as sold on the bat.

5

Hey CPB, Taro -

Suppose you're playing fantasy baseball next year, and Iwakuma is throwing an easy 89-91 next spring -

Where do you take Iwakuma on draft day 2012, cf. to Latos, Bedard, Gio, Matt Garza, Buehrle, Saunders, Dempster, Fister and whoever ...

6

Hershiser + 5 mph at this point.

The guy was bitten by a radioactive giraffe.  Once every 3 starts he leaps a plateau.

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benihanaI'm with you Matt. I kind of want the M's to trade Taylor, Lomo, and Ramirez for Fielder and some $$. What a murderer's row would Cano, Cruz, Fielder, and Seager make?15 hours 12 min ago
DaddyORight re: underground drip irrigation. That's what I was referring to. If you are spending $125 million on ballplayers every year you would think it would be worth it to protect that investment even if it costs a million dollars a year. I dunno, maybe I'm wrong here.15 hours 27 min ago
SABR MattFWIW, I bet 37 roto dollars on Prince Fielder this year. I think he will have a good year16 hours 16 min ago
mojicianHamilton would have been the biggest bust in the history of Seattle. They would have run the entire Z regime out on a rail for 2014 Hamilton performance alone. It says here if you are going to have a star, he should have great makeup. I think Fielder will bounce back. His game wasn't dependent on being a yoga instructor. What he has are large muscles and a disciplined plate approach, see Papi, Big. Fat guys rake.17 hours 11 min ago
SpectatorAnd how about Z whiffing on Hamilton and Prince Fielder before connecting on Cano, the only one who looks to hold his superstar value? Balance of power in the West could turn on those three contracts.17 hours 58 min ago
SABR MattYep...Taylor would probably go to AAA so that Lloyd could have his cheerleader on the bench not begging for PT and Taylor could work on his plate discipline.18 hours 4 min ago
SpectatorLloyd says if Bloomie healthy, then Miller and Taylor won't both make roster. At least that's their plan at the moment.18 hours 30 min ago
SABR MattEven with that, i wonder if the system creates irregularities on the surface in ground texture18 hours 54 min ago
benihanaFor turf lawns we are talking 6 to 12 inches below grade. Not something that's gonna pop-up even in warn spots.19 hours 11 min ago
benihanaSubsurface Drip Irrigation for lawns should be buried well beneath the sod. Hoses under the ground, not hoses on the ground. Problem is you need to dig up all the grass, lay the irrigation and then re-sod, it's an expensive investment. But should be recouped with the decreased water usage alone, never mind the injury aspect.19 hours 14 min ago
SABR MattDrip-irrigation may actually be MORE risky for players...replace the rare, small sprinkler head with a labyrinth of hoses lying on the ground.19 hours 56 min ago
DaddyONo doubt, OBF. I have NEVER understood, given the salaries paid out to players these days, why teams don't do more (than they no doubt already do) to eliminate potential causes of unnecessary injury. You can't eliminate injuries that come as a direct result of player collisions, etc, but there is more that can/should be done with facilities. Why have sprinkler heads? I'm no landscaper or hortoculturalist, but isn't drip irrigation more efficient than sprinklers? Doesn't one player-year of injury for a star player due to sprinklers pay for the entire cost of installing drip irrigation on a ball field? Maybe I'm being unrealistic, it's just something that I've always questioned when I hear about such injuries. Another example would be walls and fences, which have shown some improvement over the years with padding but still seem to have unpadded areas that could be rather easily addressed.20 hours 7 min ago
OBFDaddyO... those fields and every field that every player plays on has those same sprinklers and same soft spots... Blame it on extremely bad luck, blame it on injury proneness and ungracefulness like Matt said, but you really can't put this one on the club... thousands of players spend thousands of hours on those fields every spring... Saunders is just the lucky first to trip on a sprinkler head I guess? Yup, Matt, sure glad we flipped Saunders for something useful.20 hours 43 min ago
DaddyORe: Ackley's new baby, as a person I'm happy for him. As a fan, it occurs to me that sometimes the birth of a first child gives a player a new, even stronger reason to succeed.21 hours 14 min ago
DaddyOOh man, that's tough luck for Saunders. That's not fragility, it's just...what...incompetence by the club allowing highly paid athletes to train on fields where it's that easy to seriously hurt yourself? Frankly, I don't understand it. Isn't drip irrigation feasible?21 hours 16 min ago
SABR MattYeah...it's a freak injury, but there are players who get freak injuries more often because they are not graceful, or because their connective tissue doesn't handle stress well. Saunders seems to be both not graceful AND prone to injuries that are worse than the triggering event suggests they should be. I, for one, am glad we got value for him in trade.21 hours 55 min ago
OBFSoft Spot in the ground has got to be worse than rounding the bases (Snelling) in terms of, "Good grief what did you do to get such bad karma" ranking... Not quite as bad as, what was it, carrying a suitcase up some stairs for Sasaki, though ;)22 hours 7 min ago
OBFI feel for Saunders, totally sucks for him, similarly I feel for Derick rose as well (same injury actually, torn meniscus), but JackyZ has to be thinking, :"Heh, heh, heh... see, internet, I TOLD YOU SO!" Lots of sites raked Jack and Mac over the coals for not trusting Saunders and for trading him away (in what they saw as) an unfavorable trade... are they going to issue retractions or admit The M's were right on this one now?22 hours 12 min ago
MtGrizzly@ShiDavidi: Michael Saunders stepped on soft spot around underground sprinkler on outfield grass while shagging flies yesterday. Left knee buckled.22 hours 33 min ago
SABR MattWow...brutal23 hours 33 min ago