POTD Hisashi Iwakuma - the Cone, Mussina, Hudson family

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Q.  Okay -- a located 90 fastball, two breaking pitches one left and one right, and a wipeout forkball.  Who is like that in the majors?

A.  Also known as the Mike Mussina / David Cone type family.  Precious few pitchers execute 4+ pitches effectively.  Precious fewer do it while using a forkball.

Here is the complete list of the ten ML pitchers who, at any time during 2009-11, threw 10% forkballs or more (Iwakuma throws 20%).  As you can see, there are varying degrees of competence within any given family ...

 

SP % forks, splits
Halladay 16%
Penny 14%
Kuroda 14%
Pelfrey 13%
Haren 13%
Dempster 12%
Hudson 6%
Jeff Neimann 10% in 2012
Zambrano 15% in 2009
Iwakuma 20%

 

As a group, these guys make a fair amount of money, especially in All-Star bonuses.  

There you go.  That is the list of ML pitchers who feature splitfinger and forkball pitches.  As you can see, it's a template that leads the template field.

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COMMENTS:

Zambrano - featured the split in 2009 and 2010 only during his career, running 3.77 and 3.33 ERA's in Wrigley Field

Neimann - Borderline if he belongs here; features FB and power curve 85%, mixes in slider and fork a bit. Good pitcher.  

Halladay - throws four pitches in David Cone style:  FB 25%, cutter/slider 45%, fork 15%, and curve 15%.  What a template

Penny - Has no glove-side breaking pitch (no slider or cutter).  Everything is FB, curve, fork

Kuroda - Borderline if he belongs here.  Very weird 3-pitch arsenal:  Fastball, slider, forkball.  Excellent SP

Dempster - See Kuroda

Mike Pelfrey - Uses Kuroda arsenal.  Along with Ryan Franklin, serves as the bottom floor of what this kind of SP can be

Haren - 3 pitches like Kuroda ... instead of FB-SL-SF, uses FB-cutter-SF, which is far more effective

Nolasco - true 4-pitch, forkball SP.  Would be a star except for execution from the stretch (terrible ERA with RISP)

Tim Hudson - also a true 4-pitch guy at this point

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It's possible that F/X will wind up seeing Hisashi Iwakuma as a 3-pitch guy, if it reads his Shuuto as a fastball.  But if it did, it would still see the ratios as 50% fastball, 25% slider, 25% forkball - many fewer FB's than the other guys' cutters and FB's combined.

(By the way, I was surprised to see that Dice-K came to America and stopped throwing slow stuff.  It was all fastball-cutter-slider, three pitches instead of four or five.  Sigggghhhh.)

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Q.  Is our old friend Ryan Franklin in this category?

A.  As a starter, he was the lower boundary for this category, but Franklin was an extreme flyball pitcher.  Iwakuma is a groundball pitcher.

Honestly, you've got a ways to go to --- > find a 4-pitch "Polished Pro" guy with a forkball, who throws grounders.  It's just a very sophisticated game, one that is difficult to execute, and obviously difficult to hit.

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Q.  So who are Iwakuma's comparables?

A.  He is in the Mussina / Cone family, but red-shifted towards ground balls.  None of these other guys throw a GB-happy Shuuto.  Also, Iwakuma's splitter induces a bizarro GB ratio, and even the FB gets topped.  Iwakuma's GB ratio is over 2:1.

If you're using GB + Diverse Arsenal as the paradigm, you get Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe and Trevor Cahill.

All things considered, I'd go with Hudson as the best comp ... if Hudson threw 20% forks.

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Q.  Is this template really such a slam dunk?

A.  If Iwakuma were becoming an Oakland Athletic, my main hope would be that he wasn't going to execute his pitches crisply in 2012.  I wouldn't hold out a lot of hope that his game, properly executed, wouldn't work.

If Iwakuma throws his shuuto the way he does on YouTube, and if he locates his fastball, and if he mixes his pitches 40-20-20-20, he is going to be effective.

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Klat Categories: 

Comments

Taro, IceX ...Q on Iwakuma's velocity ...

He came back quickly last year on the shoulder, and at times was down to 86 mph ... I think his last start was 86 average and the one before that, 89 or somesuch.

At 89 mph he is an impact pitcher in the bigs ... Jered Weaver is frequently 88-90 mph and it hurts him not one whit...

If Iwamura is tossing 85-87 mph that is a different situation; that makes him Brad Radke plus a forkball ... also a good pitcher, probably, but it makes his job easier if the hitters have to respect his fastball to some extent ...

You have a feel for where Iwakuma is likely to be, after a winter off?

1

Taro's picture

Taro

Velocity declined late in the season and hes never been durable with the arsenal and mechanics. Early-mid season he was the same guy hes always been.

Good buy low IMO, but fragile and needs to be treated such.

He needs to be babied. Skipped starts occasionally, pulled quicker, etc.

2

Just how we pictured it ...

Reminds of Cone and Mussina as they got on in their careers.  The combination of tilted slider, and the splitfinger or knuckle curve, takes a lot out of the shoulder.

Cone and Mussina, even on their very last legs, weren't exactly Anthony Vazquezes :- )

3

Looks like the M's are going to land him. Iwamura himself stated that his best fit is in Seattle and is closest to signing a deal to play there.

This is a great move. He sounds like quality player yet shouldn't cost a ton because he prefers Seattle and there isn't much of a market for him. Could be one of the best value signings of the offseason. This will increase the team's flexibility since they can more comfortably trade away their young pitching. And if they keep all of their pitchers there won't be as great a need to rush them.

It should also give Jack more leverage with Fielder, since he can say that he already has made a big aquisition and so he doesn't need to sign another major free agent.

4

Taro's picture

Taro

I'm with Doc on this one. I think Iwakuma is a very nice value signing and he wants to come to Seattle. As long as you baby him.

I'd take Iwakuma in the middle-end of that list Doc.

Nevermind on Cespedes. After watching more vid of him hitting not as sold on the bat.

5

Hey CPB, Taro -

Suppose you're playing fantasy baseball next year, and Iwakuma is throwing an easy 89-91 next spring -

Where do you take Iwakuma on draft day 2012, cf. to Latos, Bedard, Gio, Matt Garza, Buehrle, Saunders, Dempster, Fister and whoever ...

6

Hershiser + 5 mph at this point.

The guy was bitten by a radioactive giraffe.  Once every 3 starts he leaps a plateau.

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Bat571So, in late innings, behind by just a run or two, they decide to walk LoMo - put in JJ and let him drive the pitcher nuts like we've seen he can do. He may not be the big OF bat we need, but he could be quite the weapon off the bench if he can play any of the OF spots plus 1B. Ignoring Willie Bloomquist for the moment, a bench of Saunders, Taylor, and JJ, would be quite the quiver of weapons.7 hours 39 min ago
Bat571I bet Miller, Taylor, and JJ all get reps at other positions next spring. I can understand that JJs speed is wasted if he's a 1B like he was in college, but if he's a bench guy anyway, then put him there when you need to to get him on base in late innings. And his size and athleticism are in Olerud's class. So, bye Smoak and Morales - LoMo and JJ will do just fine - and we still have Willie and Ackley if need be.7 hours 51 min ago
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rick82Haven't heard from Jeff in a while. Hope everything is OK.10 hours 48 min ago
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SABR MattI hope they do get sold. And to someone who lives in the U.S., watches baseball occasionally, and...um...gives a crap.19 hours 14 min ago
rick82Matt, it can't be so hard. We've have GMs in the past whose names no one would ever remember who could find these guys: In 1979, we signed this guy to a free league contract: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hortowi01.shtml (Willie Horton), and later flipped him with other spare parts (yes, the expansion era Mariners had spare parts) for this guy: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/ziskri01.shtml (Richie Zisk).19 hours 21 min ago
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SABR MattGordon...as you know, I agree wholeheartedly. I don't run the club though.20 hours 14 min ago
Gordon GrossBTW, the Ms finished 6th in the AL in Defensive Runs Saved (at -9). Not great... but WORLDS better than the trainwreck they were in 2013. Gotta keep that up.20 hours 44 min ago
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rick82Barring getting the best, Tacoma, we might try simply going for replacement level. This year we had aging vets offering us the following WAR (b-ref): Hart -0.5, Denorfia -0.3, Morales -0.3, Romero -1.3 as a hitter (so much for my theory we should have just inserted him at DH and left him there). Hey, do you realize Sucre had a higher offensive WAR than Morales? Hmmmm...21 hours 25 min ago
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