Joe Saunders for ONE Year? Deal me in, buddy

Now let's talk the 10% chance that he's Jamie Moyer

.

If Saunders is coming in as a 1-year bridge guy, then the entire conversation changes.  Pretty rare, as far as I recall, to get a guy like this to sign with you for a single season.

By "a guy like this" I mean a starting pitcher who:

  • Throws 200 innings every year (194 x 5 the last five years)
  • At a 100 ERA+
  • In the American League
  • Has been apparently getting a little better as time goes on, and was on a hot roll last we saw him
  • In other words, doesn't have warts, isn't coming off surgery, yada yada

I don't like Saunders' .500 SLG against righties, especially with the fences coming in out there in LF.  Still, he was really hot last  fall ... a 58:19 control in the second half, a 2+ ERA in September, and great in the playoffs.  Obviously Buck Showalter saw how hot (not lucky) he was and rode it, slamming him in there against Texas to everybody's amazement -- and having it pay off huge.

So there is the off chance -- 10%, let us say -- that Saunders has pulled a Jamie Moyer at age 31.  As we recall, the M's grabbed Moyer at age 31, 32, right in the middle of Moyer's first "hot" season, and then Moyer pitched like a Hall of Famer for the next 15 years.  Because the M's had body-surfed the very crest of Moyer's emergence, they had pole position and locked him up for the future.

I'd like to ask Zduriencik whether this type of thought is ever in his mind - hey, the upside scenario, he becomes Moyer, you're getting a lotto ticket into the bargain here.  

Saunders will never actually pitch in the style Moyer did; Moyer had ballet-type balance and the best command in the league.  Saunders would have to do it differently.  But some guys get good in their 30's, is the point.

............

Anyway, two years would have meant committing 60 starts to Saunders - blaarrrggggh ::wipes bottom lip::.  One year means committing zero to him.  Okkayyyyyy.

That gives us three scenarios:

  • LO - Saunders reeks, and you slam the kids in.
  • MID - Saunders has a 100 ERA+, and he acts as a buffer so that you can integrate the glamor rookies on your terms.
  • HI - Saunders does some kind of Jamie Moyer thing, and you reap the benefits.

So the STRATEGIC (not tactical) overview is that --- > you've got a grandmaster play by Zduriencik.  We got no downside here.  We win a pawn in all variations.  Write down the move, screw the Bishop into the square with gusto, and hit the chess clock.

...............

Compared to Jason Vargas, this #4 starter is pretty much a push to me.  Vargas has been a little better, but Saunders did have that hot roll going at the end of 2012 which is a little intriguing.  I call that a push.  As compared to Kevin Millwood, he's pretty clearly a better roll of the dice than that was.  (RIP Kevin and thanks man.  You showed 'em how it was done, brother.)

A ONE year deal on a 100 ERA+ vet who was on a roll when last seen?  No brainer.  I'll take one of those every season until my funeral.

BABVA,

Dr D

Klat Categories: 

Comments

Waiting out the off season just paid off big-time!! All the GMZ naysayers who had written off the M's off season as a failure need to hit the re-evaluate button. GMZ now has veteran depth at every position.

1

I would much rather we just give the ball to Hultzen or Paxton, or both, in mid-May. Much rather......

But this definately kicks Noesi out of the rotation and means Beavan has to fend off those two guys to stay in the rotation. I won't have to watch Noesi and that is of some value.

180 innings/100 ERA+ is something decent to have........especially if the cost is really just one year.

Upside is pretty, downside is he flames out and we are just pitching a guy we already have.

Hultzen or Paxton get to have the full Tacoma experience, for a while. I prefer to think that if they are going to be ready in July they are ready in May....

But one year of Saunders doesn't chap me in any way serious.

A decent get. Must be a bonus or option involved.

Can we cut Raul to open up the 40-man space?

moe

2

I was leaning that way too. Still in the up scenario if we're looking to possibly keep him long term others have to go. Felix, Kuma, Erasmo, Pax, Hultz, Walker, Beaven, Saunders, Maurer (9, yeah 9!) is just too much for one rotation. In comes Carraway, Sanchez, Fernandez, etc...

Saunders one one year is very laudable. I'm having alot of trouble with a guess on the August 1st rotation though. April 1st seems easier now, but surprises could happen.

I'm going back and forth on the acquisition. It nearly guarantees that even a good spring from one of P/H/M will see them still sent out. There's always injury, trade or collapse to free a spot. Beaven and Ramirez may not be so secure, but I'd rather see both than Saunders. Oh well, depth is much better than dearth.

3

EA's picture

EA

One thing that being a Mariner fan has taught me is that the real LO scenario is more akin to something like:

Joe has a great Spring
Struggles badly out of the gate
Puts a couple of nice starts together
More stinkers to follow
A nice month gets sprinkled in there mid-season
More stinkers
A few nice starts to end the season after revealing he had mystery elbow pain earlier this year
Contract Extension!
Rinse and Repeat

4

ghost's picture

ghost

although that ws Bavasi...GMZ has yet to do that with any pitcher.

5

Can I get a wiiittttt-nesssss... 

Can I get a witness... talkin' talkin' bout mah bab-eh

6

CMB's picture

CMB

It's hard to find a player on this roster that isn't playing for a contract or future job.

I love me some numbers, but there's no stat for motivation. Is it April yet?

7

Right now we got

1 Felix

2 Iwakuma

3 Erasmo (though he'll nominally be the 4)

4 Saunders

5 Paxton

And with any injury to Iwakuma, or whoever, you got Hultzen in next.  Pretty much Zduriencik's ideal -- the BEST of the glamor arms gets the 5 spot, with the runnerup going into the on-deck circle, no rush.

9

Kelley, Noesi, Triunfel, and a non-40 roster arm for Domonic Brown, please. That would really top off the off-season. Morse, Saunders, and Brown in the outfield, with Guti rotating in against tough lefties. Felix, Kuma, Big Joe, the Eraser, and Bibbedy-Bobbedy Beaven in the rotation until Paxton and Hultzen are safely past super two. Pitchers and Catchers -- REPORT!!

10

But that does bring it up -- who's next for DFA? I'd sure like a trade rather than just give up Carp, or Wells, or Kelley, or even Noesi or Medina, for nada. We gotta find someone with a player that they'll give up that is worth three or four of our marginal guys. Who else is in a manager's dog house besides Brown that we might want?

11

ghost's picture

ghost

My guess is...we'll finalize the Saunders signing when we finish trading Carp to the Red Sox or some other interested team that whiffed on first base help. Heck...Carp/Kelley is a pretty neat little package to offer someone for a decent prospect or active right fielder with some blemishes.

12

... disginations for assignment. Everyone who is currently on the 40-man roster will show up and compete. Those who don't make the cut and do not have any more options will get traded to another team for prospects. This is the baseball version of the wheel of life :)

13

You can make the argument that Saunders is Beavan, from the other side, with one more K and one more BB per 9. And maybe a homerun better every 27 innings.

Something like that.

That's why there isn't a chorus of ringing voices celebrating this deal. 10% upside is quite reasonable. Same might be said about Beavan.

But they are both better than Noesi.

Unless we're a play-off team this year, early Hultzen and Paxton sightings make more sense.

But....it remains a decent get. Not much more than that. Unless we roll 7 or 11 on him.

moe

16

the first pitcher and position player in many decades.. guess we need to get used to using full names because there is more than one Michael too.

18

I like the suggestion. Not sure how it would work in reality. Some would wait forever to be traded, nobody tangoing with Figgins for the minimum and no talent so far. I think DFA could be severely improved too. There may be something there with spinning the wheel.

20

jellison's picture

jellison

The thought occurred to me, and is noted on another site, in the context of the trade for Morales the acquisition of Saunders is rather interesting. If Vargas and Saunders are viewed as interchangeable (both in performance and salary), and Saunders was available to any team willing to pull the trigger, why did the Angels trade Morales for talent they could have acquired without the loss of Morales? Either (i) the premise of Vargas and Saunders being interchangeable is fundamentally flawed, (ii) the market expectations for Saunders' contract changed dramatically between December and February, or (iii) the Angels made a fundamental strategic error. I would be interested in knowing your thoughts. Did the Mariners just acquire Morales for free?

21

Very interesting point about acquiring Morales for free. Certainly looks that way to me. A similar point can be raised in the Jaso/Morse/Shoppach deal. If Shoppach is deemed in an overall sense to be the equivalent of Jaso (leaving aside the number of years under contract), did GMZ essentially just acquire Morse for free?

22

M's Watcher's picture

M's Watcher

I'm just happy that the talk of Noesi in the M's rotation can stop. Saunders mitigates risk with the others in the rotation after Felix, though I'm still hopeful that the kids force their way into the rotation sooner rather than later. Ready or not, they are more talented.

23

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <ul> <ol> <li> <i> <b> <img> <table> <tr> <td> <th> <div> <strong> <p> <br> <u>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
By submitting this form, you accept the Mollom privacy policy.

Shoutbox

Please log in or create an account to post shouts.
DaddyORe: "That's an actual batting order," yes, but will they do it? Is this plan D of four plans, the first three of which simply didn't pan out? Or is it step one in plan A or B?5 min 24 sec ago
DaddyO21 DP's with the M's in 2013. That's Joe Torre territory. Cano average nearly 20 per season. That's a prorated 40 DP per season duo in the middle of your order. You've gotta do a LOT of slugging to counteract that.8 min 54 sec ago
DaddyODid Kendrys even WANT to come here? This move is perplexing. The M's showed some interest but played salary games with him late in the offseason before letting him slip away over what amounted to peanuts. They showed no interest before Minnesota signed him. The same problems that exist today existed then. Imagine what our record would be if they had signed him in April or May. Plus 3 or 4 from what we have now? He's a legit bat, just not a big one.11 min 26 sec ago
SABR MattSay they get Kemp for Franklin and Walker and the Dodgers cough up 40% of his remaining salary...and then say they add McGehee on the cheap (won't cost that much to get I don't think)...this line-up: CF) Jones LF) McGehee 2B) Cano RF) Kemp 3B) Seager DH) Morales 1B) Morrison C) Zunino SS) Miller - that's an actual batting order.11 min 57 sec ago
SABR MattIf they now go and get Kemp, for example, which...rumors persist.............15 min 14 sec ago
DaddyOIf the M's follow this up with another bat, an even better bat, to man RF and hit behind Cano (Seager should hit 5th), then this looks better. It definitely solves our DH black hole IF (!) Morales hits in line with his capability.18 min 2 sec ago
SABR MattAgreed DaddyO...they can't stop at Morales. I think he does help...so I'm glad he's here...but if this is all they get this July...they failed and I'll be upset.18 min 56 sec ago
DaddyOMatt, I thought you were KIDDING! You GOTTA be kidding me, but I see you're not. I don't like this move AT ALL. It's the kind of move that, if done, should have been done a month ago, or at least two weeks ago. Morales is a Band-Aid move, a low risk-moderate reward move. If it ends up that the Mariners consider this a check-off-the-box-we-did-something move, this is precisely what I was concerned they would do.20 min 21 sec ago
SABR MattGUYS!!! We acquired a bat...stop the moping for a sec to talk about it. :) Kendrys doesn't solve our problems...but I think he'll help some. And hey...there's still time to get more than just Kendrys23 min ago
SABR MattMorales seems to be popping the ball up too much in Minny...line drives are dropping, but his plate discipline numbers aren't getting worse apart from a slight increase in Sw-S%. My guess...he's just rusty from having no ST and he'll eventually hit. But...he is very...very...slow.24 min 11 sec ago
DaddyOSo... long, Wi...ld Card. All of the nights we waited to score 'til dawn... I never thought I'd wait, so long....so long. Offseason may come and trade deadlines may go and never change your point of view. When I run dry, I pine away and think of you...24 min 15 sec ago
SABR MattMariners acquire Kendrys Morales for Stephen Pryor. LOL!!!32 min 37 sec ago
bsrTerry - let's just hope the M's get to the end of that great song and we can all say "Amen and Hallelujah!" Because, you know I don't find this stuff amusing anymore.38 min 45 sec ago
SpectatorActually, if you go just by Pythagorean record, 3rd best. By playoff percentage chance, 5th best.1 hour 2 min ago
rick82And you trade your Taijuan Walker...and I my Justin Smoak. Oh who am I kidding? That last line is a joke.1 hour 16 min ago
rick82What's that you say, Mr. Mattingly? Clobbering Kemp has left and gone away? Hey hey hey1 hour 18 min ago
SpectatorLike a bridge over troubled water, Pythagorean analysis still says the M's are firmly the 5th best team in the AL.1 hour 19 min ago
SpectatorWhere have you gone, Matt Kemp of 2011? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.1 hour 22 min ago
rick82If our budget is cast in stone, and all we have in currency is prospects, we gotta be real careful in how we cash them in. Sucks for this season, but if we play our cards right, we will be killer in the next couple years. And we can still win this season. I continue to re-iterate the Dodgers won 97 games in '65 with worse pitching and hitting than we have. We don't do the little things they do, but we do have better pitching and hitting (ERA+ 121 to 116, hitting 92 to 89). Jack has probably been told by Lincoln that he will not tolerate giving away Choo, Cabrera and Jones for a chance to go from suck to super suck.1 hour 53 min ago
phxterryDaddyO - "Slip slidn away" -- good call -- that tune has been bouncing around my head for the last 2 weeks. Paul Simon is my hero for coining my favorite line "All along along there were incidents and accidents; There were hints and allegations". The M's are all about hints and allegations, not substance. Read more at http://www.songlyrics.com/paul-simon/you-can-call-me-al-lyrics/#Spictsgup9pLD9yF.992 hours 14 min ago