Angels 3 …..

STOP DA FIGHT

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Angels' corner tossed in the towel about two 4-run innings ago, I think ...

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Bottom Line

Paxton goes to 5-0, 1.75 in his first six MLB starts.  Maybe Gordon can draw us up a list of SP's who were 5-0 and 6-0 after six starts?

He's got 34 strikeouts and 9 walks, with 4 homers allowed, in 36.0 IP.  A nice symmetrical TTO line of 8.5 / 2.25 / 1.0 ... the two starting pitchers with the most similar TTO's to that, over the period 2011-13, are CC Sabathaa and David Price.  Like we sez, Paxton has deviated from script.  He has been pitching more like the virtuoso's than the napalm divebombers Koufax and Kershaw.

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IP 1 - Paxton digs into the 3-run hole

Conventional wisdom -- that on TV, anyway, from McClendon & Blowers et al -- was that Paxton was amp'ed up for the Big Home Opener.  Made a few mistakes in the first, but settled in and mowed them down later.

SSI's take is different.

......

Start by understanding:  K-Pax is in a mode now to where he "gets too much of the plate," like Pineda did for a short while.  I mean, not really - for Paxton it is not much of a problem, but hold that thought.  The starter point here is:  the batters know that the ball is going to BE there.

The Angels had the motto, "Our best pitches will be early-AB and early-game fastballs" and they came out desperate to get Paxton early in the count.  If you study the GameDay, you'll find out that's exactly what happened.  He didn't particularly make worse pitches in the 1st than he did later, but ... the first time through the lineup, Zunino wanted to establish the heater.  The Angels realized it was now or never.

It really is nothing to worry about, not a long-term problem.  Randy Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, anybody like that ... the batters want to try to prevent the pitcher from "getting to his breaking pitches" with two strikes.  

Following a "lucky" ground ball single by Trout, Albert Pujols managed to get on top of a real high, letter-high, 92 fastball for a two-run homer.  The vast majority of the time, that ball is a fly out; there isn't really any adjustment needed, or maybe even any adjustment desirable.

(The pitch to Freese was a poor one.  Every pitcher makes 12 or 15 such pitches a game.)

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/resume script

After the Angels' top half of the first, the 2014 battle reverted to normal.  Over the next 8.5 innings and 2.7 hours, the Mariners collected 8 hits and 5 runs against the Angels' 1 hit and 0 runs.

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IP 2-3 - Paxton settles into the rocking chair

First guy up in IP 2 was Raul Ibanez ... Paxton kinda got away with one, a 91 MPH fastball out and over, ground ball out by Ibanez.  But from there:

  1. Paxton out-muscled the bottom of the Angels' lineup as he found his velocity on the night, and
  2. The second time through the lineup, he started sequencing and they had no chance.

For example, here's the leadoff guy Calhoun, first man up in the third.  Paxton starts him with a high fastball, then tosses two "roll off the table" hooks and it's See You Later.  Like Randy Johnson against John Kruk.

Then against Mike Trout:

  • Smokin' hot 94 fastball at the knees, 0-1
  • 87 change, off the plate, a "show me" pitch, 1-1
  • 95 fastball down-in tears Zunino's glove off, swing through, 1-2
  • Big yakker rolls off the table, the fabulous Mike Trout achieves the unpossible:  to ground out weakly

And so on.  The cliche on these Walking Death Machines -- Koufax, Unit, Guidry, Paxton -- is get them before they start sequencing, or mail in the loss.  You see why.

(If you're curious, Albert Pujols finished IP 3 by grounding out on a 95 MPH cut fastball right on the inside black -- Albert looks like he's back to his 1.000 OPS this year.)  

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IP 4-5 - Stop Da Fight

In the 4th, after the M's took the lead, Paxton struck out the side with ridiculous ease.  Like they say, if there's a higher league, James Paxton would go to it ...

The at-bat against Hamilton was a mercy killing.  Paxton threw a yakker for a gimme strike one, and then two power slider/cutters looked like Unit-vs-Kruk again:

It could very well be that LH batters grab a lot of bench against Paxton, like they did against Randy Johnson.  He'll start sweeping that cutter to the outside corner and it'll get ugly.

..........

Paxton isn't going to go undefeated for his career.  He's groping in the dark out there.  But his debut stats run 8+ strikeouts, 2+ walks, 1.0 homers, and Dr. D is here to tell you that James is just now realizing that they can't handle his best game.

B'lee Dat.

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IP 6 - the "Slight Lat Strain"

McClendon in the postgame emphasized the "slight" part.  As we all know, "lat strain" is a catchall that is sometimes applied to bone cancer or demonic possession.  In this case, based on watching Paxton throw, we'll gingerly guess it is a --- > slight lat strain.

Supposing that he's out for 4-5 turns ... Taijuan pitches on Wednesday and could easily slide right into Paxton's slot.  With three major benefits:

  1. Lightening Paxton's eventual IP load on the year, and keeping him fresh to win 4 games in October :- )
  2. Giving Roenis Elias a chance to show he's Livan Hernandez
  3. Giving Chris Young a chance to show he's going to be back to 2007-09 for a few months

You'll get the followup reports before I do.  Gordon, you know what to do, eh hoser?

.......

Nervous thought of the day:  Dr. Mike Marshall broke something in his ribs, essentially ending his reign of terror, by adding a new pitch.  Felix Hernandez got that forearm strain when he got transfixed by the swerveball.  I hope that Paxton's new lat strain isn't because of the new cutter, but it's entirely possible.

The chance of those two things being causative ... oh, 5%, we'll guess.  But just so's you know we're payin' attention.  Paxton only threw 8 cutters in 60 pitches, so it's not like he went nuts with it, and that's what bit him.

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Bullpen

First seven games, we have seen our Best. Case. Scenario.

Wow.  SSI thought this group could easily bring the 2014 Jenga tower down.  Instead of that, they're out there one-up'ping each other.  And Justin Leone has hurled himself onto the pigpile.

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Dr's Prognosis

The little DL stint is going to distract every other blog from the real news tonight.  That being, "James Paxton is having wayyyy too much fun out there."

Focus boys focus,

Dr D

 

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Comments

...Is that it is a lot like "tendonitis." In doctor-ese, tendonitis means, "something is inflamed, and we don't know why.  Could be oversuse, or structural issues, or a torn whatchamicallit. Rest and see if it gets better."

A "lat strain" diagnosis means "something near your shoulder on your back went wonky, so we're hoping you didn't rip teres minor, jack up subscap, or mess up rib cartilage or an oblique.  The biggest muscle, that covers the whole area, is the lat, and it would freak out and seize up ANYWAY if something went wrong with a smaller muscle (rule #1 of musculature: big muscles attempt to cover up for small muscles when things go wrong) so we'll call it a lat strain and hope you didn't mess anything else up."

Paxton didn't seem too bothered, but I'm glad he didn't throw the next pitch.  If it IS a simple lat strain alone, it's merely an annoyance to recover from. Strasburg went through it last year and got DLed, IIRC - but only missed a couple weeks.

So that's what I'm hoping for.  Get the all-clear on other muscular and structural issues, don't push him that first week, and let him take the mound again after skipping a start or two.  We'll see - he might not miss any time, but I'd give him one turn out of the rotation, minimum.

~G

1

That we know he is. Glad to see him shooting out of the gate like a star in his big-league career - he's got crazy amounts of talent, and being able to dismantle lineups like this keeps proving (to himself more than anyone else) that he can dictate to anyone.

Glad we pulled out the win for him, and hope that he'll be good to go shortly and continue his assault on the league. I'm okay with having dueling ROY candidates in Paxton and Walker. 

That really would be fine with me. Make it so.

~G

2

...if there's nothing else wrong at all that they can see, then I would just rearrange and have Young take a start with that extra off-day and see if paxton feels good in a bullpen session...if he has any issue at all...he sits a start and you give the ball to Walker next Tuesday. If he has no problem in bullpen, he goes as scheduled.

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GLSLove to see the M's go after Hammel in the offseason.1 hour 57 min ago
DaddyOThe starting pitching seems to have hit a wall, and except for Ackley's resuscitating 3-run bomb in the final game vs. Washington this offense is again on life support. We are hanging in the Wild Card 2 chase only because our nearest competitors are also struggling. But we are letting more teams creep into the competition. Hope our current struggles are like they've been all year, temporary. What's worrisome is this is the first time the pitching has contributed to the struggles.2 hours 35 min ago
IcebreakerXThe good ship is on fire...3 hours 37 min ago
rick82Grand Slam Quintero should be activated immediately to put fear in the hearts of the Orcs!6 hours 33 min ago
moethedogThe Mariners have placed first baseman Jesus Montero on the suspended list for the remainder of the 2014 season, the team announced. The move comes as no surprise given that Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik recently said that Montero wouldn’t play again this year in order to focus on off-the-field issues. Montero’s suspension and Willie Bloomquist being moved to the 60-day DL creates two spots on the team’s 40-man roster that have been filled by catcher Humberto Quintero and right-hander Carson Smith, who had their contracts selected in corresponding moves.6 hours 36 min ago
rick82So nice to see our consolation prize draft pick salvage the weekend of Stasburg, Harper and Rendon.9 hours 1 min ago
MtGrizzly‬"I just think he's turned a corner," manager Lloyd McClendon said after Ackley finished 2-for-4 to lift his batting average to .260. "He believes in what he's doing and he's very confident in the type of player he is, and it's showing up in the field."‬1 day 26 min ago
MtGrizzlyAckley is in a nice zone right now. He's very calm looking in the batter's box, which is nice to see.1 day 58 min ago
DaddyOWhere would the M's be if the Ackley of July and August was the Ackley we've seen since his rookie year?1 day 1 hour ago
Tacoma RainOh now you have done it... Jinx city... Ackley is about to go zero for thousand1 day 3 hours ago
rick82Ackley is for real. I'm sold. And I didn't think Morales could get even slower. He's an albatross around this offense's neck with his inability to move. He needs more power to justify his spot in this lineup.1 day 4 hours ago
rick82I've taken my grandson to watch 18 innings this week, in which we scored a grand total of 1 run. The problem remains the offense. And last night...James Jones to the rescue? Where's Romero, the guy who's tearing apart AAA? Heck, Ty Kelly, for that matter.1 day 6 hours ago
Tacoma RainAdam Dunn to the A's for minor league relief pitcher.... I wonder how many more moves teams in the playoff hunt will make this year.1 day 7 hours ago
Tacoma RainMaybe our players are tired because of all the travelling and due to the stress of all the close games1 day 22 hours ago
IcebreakerXInteresting that the M's haven't been able to find a way to keep Felix & the starters fresh, even with the extremely awesome bullpen.2 days 6 min ago
GLSWhy is our pitching staff getting worn down as opposed to other teams? Have our starters pitched more innings relative to the rest of the league?2 days 4 hours ago
MtGrizzlyFelix does tend to wear down in September. Troubling implications for October, should they get there.2 days 10 hours ago
SABR MattA shame that homer by Seager in the first didn't stay fair.2 days 21 hours ago
Bat571LaRoche WAS FRAMED ! (very nicely by Zunino - nice job, Mike!)2 days 22 hours ago
SABR MattI am reminded of 2007. The whole pitching staff looks out of gas. We're in trouble.2 days 22 hours ago