Angels 3 …..

STOP DA FIGHT

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Angels' corner tossed in the towel about two 4-run innings ago, I think ...

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Bottom Line

Paxton goes to 5-0, 1.75 in his first six MLB starts.  Maybe Gordon can draw us up a list of SP's who were 5-0 and 6-0 after six starts?

He's got 34 strikeouts and 9 walks, with 4 homers allowed, in 36.0 IP.  A nice symmetrical TTO line of 8.5 / 2.25 / 1.0 ... the two starting pitchers with the most similar TTO's to that, over the period 2011-13, are CC Sabathaa and David Price.  Like we sez, Paxton has deviated from script.  He has been pitching more like the virtuoso's than the napalm divebombers Koufax and Kershaw.

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IP 1 - Paxton digs into the 3-run hole

Conventional wisdom -- that on TV, anyway, from McClendon & Blowers et al -- was that Paxton was amp'ed up for the Big Home Opener.  Made a few mistakes in the first, but settled in and mowed them down later.

SSI's take is different.

......

Start by understanding:  K-Pax is in a mode now to where he "gets too much of the plate," like Pineda did for a short while.  I mean, not really - for Paxton it is not much of a problem, but hold that thought.  The starter point here is:  the batters know that the ball is going to BE there.

The Angels had the motto, "Our best pitches will be early-AB and early-game fastballs" and they came out desperate to get Paxton early in the count.  If you study the GameDay, you'll find out that's exactly what happened.  He didn't particularly make worse pitches in the 1st than he did later, but ... the first time through the lineup, Zunino wanted to establish the heater.  The Angels realized it was now or never.

It really is nothing to worry about, not a long-term problem.  Randy Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, anybody like that ... the batters want to try to prevent the pitcher from "getting to his breaking pitches" with two strikes.  

Following a "lucky" ground ball single by Trout, Albert Pujols managed to get on top of a real high, letter-high, 92 fastball for a two-run homer.  The vast majority of the time, that ball is a fly out; there isn't really any adjustment needed, or maybe even any adjustment desirable.

(The pitch to Freese was a poor one.  Every pitcher makes 12 or 15 such pitches a game.)

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/resume script

After the Angels' top half of the first, the 2014 battle reverted to normal.  Over the next 8.5 innings and 2.7 hours, the Mariners collected 8 hits and 5 runs against the Angels' 1 hit and 0 runs.

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IP 2-3 - Paxton settles into the rocking chair

First guy up in IP 2 was Raul Ibanez ... Paxton kinda got away with one, a 91 MPH fastball out and over, ground ball out by Ibanez.  But from there:

  1. Paxton out-muscled the bottom of the Angels' lineup as he found his velocity on the night, and
  2. The second time through the lineup, he started sequencing and they had no chance.

For example, here's the leadoff guy Calhoun, first man up in the third.  Paxton starts him with a high fastball, then tosses two "roll off the table" hooks and it's See You Later.  Like Randy Johnson against John Kruk.

Then against Mike Trout:

  • Smokin' hot 94 fastball at the knees, 0-1
  • 87 change, off the plate, a "show me" pitch, 1-1
  • 95 fastball down-in tears Zunino's glove off, swing through, 1-2
  • Big yakker rolls off the table, the fabulous Mike Trout achieves the unpossible:  to ground out weakly

And so on.  The cliche on these Walking Death Machines -- Koufax, Unit, Guidry, Paxton -- is get them before they start sequencing, or mail in the loss.  You see why.

(If you're curious, Albert Pujols finished IP 3 by grounding out on a 95 MPH cut fastball right on the inside black -- Albert looks like he's back to his 1.000 OPS this year.)  

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IP 4-5 - Stop Da Fight

In the 4th, after the M's took the lead, Paxton struck out the side with ridiculous ease.  Like they say, if there's a higher league, James Paxton would go to it ...

The at-bat against Hamilton was a mercy killing.  Paxton threw a yakker for a gimme strike one, and then two power slider/cutters looked like Unit-vs-Kruk again:

It could very well be that LH batters grab a lot of bench against Paxton, like they did against Randy Johnson.  He'll start sweeping that cutter to the outside corner and it'll get ugly.

..........

Paxton isn't going to go undefeated for his career.  He's groping in the dark out there.  But his debut stats run 8+ strikeouts, 2+ walks, 1.0 homers, and Dr. D is here to tell you that James is just now realizing that they can't handle his best game.

B'lee Dat.

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IP 6 - the "Slight Lat Strain"

McClendon in the postgame emphasized the "slight" part.  As we all know, "lat strain" is a catchall that is sometimes applied to bone cancer or demonic possession.  In this case, based on watching Paxton throw, we'll gingerly guess it is a --- > slight lat strain.

Supposing that he's out for 4-5 turns ... Taijuan pitches on Wednesday and could easily slide right into Paxton's slot.  With three major benefits:

  1. Lightening Paxton's eventual IP load on the year, and keeping him fresh to win 4 games in October :- )
  2. Giving Roenis Elias a chance to show he's Livan Hernandez
  3. Giving Chris Young a chance to show he's going to be back to 2007-09 for a few months

You'll get the followup reports before I do.  Gordon, you know what to do, eh hoser?

.......

Nervous thought of the day:  Dr. Mike Marshall broke something in his ribs, essentially ending his reign of terror, by adding a new pitch.  Felix Hernandez got that forearm strain when he got transfixed by the swerveball.  I hope that Paxton's new lat strain isn't because of the new cutter, but it's entirely possible.

The chance of those two things being causative ... oh, 5%, we'll guess.  But just so's you know we're payin' attention.  Paxton only threw 8 cutters in 60 pitches, so it's not like he went nuts with it, and that's what bit him.

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Bullpen

First seven games, we have seen our Best. Case. Scenario.

Wow.  SSI thought this group could easily bring the 2014 Jenga tower down.  Instead of that, they're out there one-up'ping each other.  And Justin Leone has hurled himself onto the pigpile.

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Dr's Prognosis

The little DL stint is going to distract every other blog from the real news tonight.  That being, "James Paxton is having wayyyy too much fun out there."

Focus boys focus,

Dr D

 

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Comments

...Is that it is a lot like "tendonitis." In doctor-ese, tendonitis means, "something is inflamed, and we don't know why.  Could be oversuse, or structural issues, or a torn whatchamicallit. Rest and see if it gets better."

A "lat strain" diagnosis means "something near your shoulder on your back went wonky, so we're hoping you didn't rip teres minor, jack up subscap, or mess up rib cartilage or an oblique.  The biggest muscle, that covers the whole area, is the lat, and it would freak out and seize up ANYWAY if something went wrong with a smaller muscle (rule #1 of musculature: big muscles attempt to cover up for small muscles when things go wrong) so we'll call it a lat strain and hope you didn't mess anything else up."

Paxton didn't seem too bothered, but I'm glad he didn't throw the next pitch.  If it IS a simple lat strain alone, it's merely an annoyance to recover from. Strasburg went through it last year and got DLed, IIRC - but only missed a couple weeks.

So that's what I'm hoping for.  Get the all-clear on other muscular and structural issues, don't push him that first week, and let him take the mound again after skipping a start or two.  We'll see - he might not miss any time, but I'd give him one turn out of the rotation, minimum.

~G

1

That we know he is. Glad to see him shooting out of the gate like a star in his big-league career - he's got crazy amounts of talent, and being able to dismantle lineups like this keeps proving (to himself more than anyone else) that he can dictate to anyone.

Glad we pulled out the win for him, and hope that he'll be good to go shortly and continue his assault on the league. I'm okay with having dueling ROY candidates in Paxton and Walker. 

That really would be fine with me. Make it so.

~G

2

...if there's nothing else wrong at all that they can see, then I would just rearrange and have Young take a start with that extra off-day and see if paxton feels good in a bullpen session...if he has any issue at all...he sits a start and you give the ball to Walker next Tuesday. If he has no problem in bullpen, he goes as scheduled.

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SABR MattRasmus. If you get Rios and Rasmus, the outfield aligns OK24 min 19 sec ago
moethedogThe Rios card might not bluff the Melky team guys: In '12 Rios was a heck of a player. In '11 he was a dud. In '13 and '14 he was basically a split heavy .280-.320-.420 guy with a pretty scraggly glove. There doesn't seem to be much Rios market out there right now, which might be a neat quality. You could probably get him for 2 years and not break the bank. Over the last two years Viciedo has hit RHP at a .738 and .689 clip. Rios has hit at .714 and .646 rate. Just saying. But he does continue to beat lefties up, so as a 4th OF-paired with Ackley, as Matt suggests, Rios would be great. He's been at .889 and .898 vL the last two years. That's rip-roaring. But it means that you need a RF who can play CF, as Rios no longer does.1 hour 21 min ago
moethedogRios and Miller would be a neat combo, perhaps. If the hint that we had interest in Seth Smith is true that might also be a place to go. Smith and Rios would be an interesting tandem. But you're still a CF short. Smith is what you hope Ackley becomes. And he's cheap for 3 years. But unless it's Jones, Miller or Endy...we need a CF glove to go with the one we've got. Bloomie? No thanks...1 hour 21 min ago
SABR MattWouldn't mind also getting Rios to pair with Ackley3 hours 19 min ago
jemanjiYep that 5.7 RC/27, delivered game-in game-out, is looking pretty sweet. Good Kendrys plus wheels3 hours 20 min ago
SABR MattI hope that's what they do...I want Melkman.4 hours 14 min ago
jemanjiMatt: exactly. Gotta leave the face-saving buffer space to sweeten your "ultimatum."4 hours 19 min ago
jemanjiGood call on Desmond there Taro … is trending down … trends aren't the absolute (I'll take a Cano, even if trending down, over Franklin age 26) but Dr. D and the HQ mouse in his pocket agree.4 hours 20 min ago
SABR Mattyes, true. "Look...you're not going to get ifve years guys...but maybe we can do four if the fourth is a vest for 130 games played in 2017 - deal?"4 hours 36 min ago
jemanjiPuts them in a position tho to close the deal. "We're going to go with Rios. If we did an easy vesting option on Melky for the 4th year, would we be getting close? Gotta decide tonight."4 hours 43 min ago
SABR Mattgrrr...nails on a chalkboard if it's true that the Mariners won't go past three years for Cabrera. That's just dumb.5 hours 2 min ago
SABR Matthm....I always thought Elsa was the principle villain of that movie until Anna made her see the light. :)5 hours 4 min ago
jemanjiIce Palace, conjured out of nothing, like Frozen. A lame homeowner but a dazzling jewel box to display the protagonist in5 hours 22 min ago
SABR Mattthis should be fun...beni is killing it over there...giving us a palace to live in.5 hours 24 min ago
jemanjiThanks go to Ben there Matt … where you, Gordon, and Spec are on the front page, that's pretty much up to you and Ben … I'm flexible. I loved the bottom row on his bidness site but I think he has an even better idea5 hours 28 min ago
Gordon GrossThat's quite a layout Benihana is putting together. VERY swanky, and only gonna get swankier from the looks of things (and from some of the potential plug-ins like a chatroom for games or whatnot). Lookin' good!5 hours 35 min ago
SABR MattI'd go ahead and give Melky the fifth year if he'd take 60 mil. 5/60 is cheaper than 4/545 hours 39 min ago
SABR MattWow...love the general look and feel of the new site, Doc...where would your co-contributors be features in a site designed like that...in the menu bar below the front panel?5 hours 41 min ago
jemanjiPreview Benihana's artistry at www.detect-o-vision.com. Desmond HQ'able at old drdetectovision WordPress5 hours 48 min ago
Gordon GrossBTW, if Melky is seriously looking for a 5/60 deal and no one will go beyond three... give him year four, call it 4/50 and take an offseason victory lap. That's cheaper over 4 years than CarGo is over 3. Boras is just gonna jerk us around over Rios, and I'm not in the mood. Glad that Dutton thinks we're cool on Desmond and on Taijuan+ for Upton. Gimme my bat and let's break for a celebratory dinner.6 hours 1 min ago