Angels 3 …..

STOP DA FIGHT

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Angels' corner tossed in the towel about two 4-run innings ago, I think ...

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Bottom Line

Paxton goes to 5-0, 1.75 in his first six MLB starts.  Maybe Gordon can draw us up a list of SP's who were 5-0 and 6-0 after six starts?

He's got 34 strikeouts and 9 walks, with 4 homers allowed, in 36.0 IP.  A nice symmetrical TTO line of 8.5 / 2.25 / 1.0 ... the two starting pitchers with the most similar TTO's to that, over the period 2011-13, are CC Sabathaa and David Price.  Like we sez, Paxton has deviated from script.  He has been pitching more like the virtuoso's than the napalm divebombers Koufax and Kershaw.

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IP 1 - Paxton digs into the 3-run hole

Conventional wisdom -- that on TV, anyway, from McClendon & Blowers et al -- was that Paxton was amp'ed up for the Big Home Opener.  Made a few mistakes in the first, but settled in and mowed them down later.

SSI's take is different.

......

Start by understanding:  K-Pax is in a mode now to where he "gets too much of the plate," like Pineda did for a short while.  I mean, not really - for Paxton it is not much of a problem, but hold that thought.  The starter point here is:  the batters know that the ball is going to BE there.

The Angels had the motto, "Our best pitches will be early-AB and early-game fastballs" and they came out desperate to get Paxton early in the count.  If you study the GameDay, you'll find out that's exactly what happened.  He didn't particularly make worse pitches in the 1st than he did later, but ... the first time through the lineup, Zunino wanted to establish the heater.  The Angels realized it was now or never.

It really is nothing to worry about, not a long-term problem.  Randy Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, anybody like that ... the batters want to try to prevent the pitcher from "getting to his breaking pitches" with two strikes.  

Following a "lucky" ground ball single by Trout, Albert Pujols managed to get on top of a real high, letter-high, 92 fastball for a two-run homer.  The vast majority of the time, that ball is a fly out; there isn't really any adjustment needed, or maybe even any adjustment desirable.

(The pitch to Freese was a poor one.  Every pitcher makes 12 or 15 such pitches a game.)

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/resume script

After the Angels' top half of the first, the 2014 battle reverted to normal.  Over the next 8.5 innings and 2.7 hours, the Mariners collected 8 hits and 5 runs against the Angels' 1 hit and 0 runs.

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IP 2-3 - Paxton settles into the rocking chair

First guy up in IP 2 was Raul Ibanez ... Paxton kinda got away with one, a 91 MPH fastball out and over, ground ball out by Ibanez.  But from there:

  1. Paxton out-muscled the bottom of the Angels' lineup as he found his velocity on the night, and
  2. The second time through the lineup, he started sequencing and they had no chance.

For example, here's the leadoff guy Calhoun, first man up in the third.  Paxton starts him with a high fastball, then tosses two "roll off the table" hooks and it's See You Later.  Like Randy Johnson against John Kruk.

Then against Mike Trout:

  • Smokin' hot 94 fastball at the knees, 0-1
  • 87 change, off the plate, a "show me" pitch, 1-1
  • 95 fastball down-in tears Zunino's glove off, swing through, 1-2
  • Big yakker rolls off the table, the fabulous Mike Trout achieves the unpossible:  to ground out weakly

And so on.  The cliche on these Walking Death Machines -- Koufax, Unit, Guidry, Paxton -- is get them before they start sequencing, or mail in the loss.  You see why.

(If you're curious, Albert Pujols finished IP 3 by grounding out on a 95 MPH cut fastball right on the inside black -- Albert looks like he's back to his 1.000 OPS this year.)  

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IP 4-5 - Stop Da Fight

In the 4th, after the M's took the lead, Paxton struck out the side with ridiculous ease.  Like they say, if there's a higher league, James Paxton would go to it ...

The at-bat against Hamilton was a mercy killing.  Paxton threw a yakker for a gimme strike one, and then two power slider/cutters looked like Unit-vs-Kruk again:

It could very well be that LH batters grab a lot of bench against Paxton, like they did against Randy Johnson.  He'll start sweeping that cutter to the outside corner and it'll get ugly.

..........

Paxton isn't going to go undefeated for his career.  He's groping in the dark out there.  But his debut stats run 8+ strikeouts, 2+ walks, 1.0 homers, and Dr. D is here to tell you that James is just now realizing that they can't handle his best game.

B'lee Dat.

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IP 6 - the "Slight Lat Strain"

McClendon in the postgame emphasized the "slight" part.  As we all know, "lat strain" is a catchall that is sometimes applied to bone cancer or demonic possession.  In this case, based on watching Paxton throw, we'll gingerly guess it is a --- > slight lat strain.

Supposing that he's out for 4-5 turns ... Taijuan pitches on Wednesday and could easily slide right into Paxton's slot.  With three major benefits:

  1. Lightening Paxton's eventual IP load on the year, and keeping him fresh to win 4 games in October :- )
  2. Giving Roenis Elias a chance to show he's Livan Hernandez
  3. Giving Chris Young a chance to show he's going to be back to 2007-09 for a few months

You'll get the followup reports before I do.  Gordon, you know what to do, eh hoser?

.......

Nervous thought of the day:  Dr. Mike Marshall broke something in his ribs, essentially ending his reign of terror, by adding a new pitch.  Felix Hernandez got that forearm strain when he got transfixed by the swerveball.  I hope that Paxton's new lat strain isn't because of the new cutter, but it's entirely possible.

The chance of those two things being causative ... oh, 5%, we'll guess.  But just so's you know we're payin' attention.  Paxton only threw 8 cutters in 60 pitches, so it's not like he went nuts with it, and that's what bit him.

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Bullpen

First seven games, we have seen our Best. Case. Scenario.

Wow.  SSI thought this group could easily bring the 2014 Jenga tower down.  Instead of that, they're out there one-up'ping each other.  And Justin Leone has hurled himself onto the pigpile.

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Dr's Prognosis

The little DL stint is going to distract every other blog from the real news tonight.  That being, "James Paxton is having wayyyy too much fun out there."

Focus boys focus,

Dr D

 

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Comments

...Is that it is a lot like "tendonitis." In doctor-ese, tendonitis means, "something is inflamed, and we don't know why.  Could be oversuse, or structural issues, or a torn whatchamicallit. Rest and see if it gets better."

A "lat strain" diagnosis means "something near your shoulder on your back went wonky, so we're hoping you didn't rip teres minor, jack up subscap, or mess up rib cartilage or an oblique.  The biggest muscle, that covers the whole area, is the lat, and it would freak out and seize up ANYWAY if something went wrong with a smaller muscle (rule #1 of musculature: big muscles attempt to cover up for small muscles when things go wrong) so we'll call it a lat strain and hope you didn't mess anything else up."

Paxton didn't seem too bothered, but I'm glad he didn't throw the next pitch.  If it IS a simple lat strain alone, it's merely an annoyance to recover from. Strasburg went through it last year and got DLed, IIRC - but only missed a couple weeks.

So that's what I'm hoping for.  Get the all-clear on other muscular and structural issues, don't push him that first week, and let him take the mound again after skipping a start or two.  We'll see - he might not miss any time, but I'd give him one turn out of the rotation, minimum.

~G

1

That we know he is. Glad to see him shooting out of the gate like a star in his big-league career - he's got crazy amounts of talent, and being able to dismantle lineups like this keeps proving (to himself more than anyone else) that he can dictate to anyone.

Glad we pulled out the win for him, and hope that he'll be good to go shortly and continue his assault on the league. I'm okay with having dueling ROY candidates in Paxton and Walker. 

That really would be fine with me. Make it so.

~G

2

...if there's nothing else wrong at all that they can see, then I would just rearrange and have Young take a start with that extra off-day and see if paxton feels good in a bullpen session...if he has any issue at all...he sits a start and you give the ball to Walker next Tuesday. If he has no problem in bullpen, he goes as scheduled.

4

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SABR Mattthe speculation is that the teams that set up private workouts are the ones who are most interested. Take that with a grain of salt...but thus far, those teams have been the Mariners, Yankees, Reds, and one other team.29 min 31 sec ago
mojicianWhat a great idea: To have Castillo take bp at the Safe instead of trying to imagine how he might hit at the Safe.52 min 7 sec ago
SABR MattMariners have a private workout with Rusney Castillo this week. Mariners also very much in on Jon Lester. Rumors still swirling about Kemp. Mariners in on a number of lower level targets. I'm not sure there is a player on the market who the Mariners are NOT in on.57 min 40 sec ago
mojicianCorrection: Wednesday July 30th may be disputed sixth day not August 5th.1 hour 28 min ago
mojicianTo add to the confusion, it is unclear whether pre-season camp started Thursday or Friday. Early reporting said that it started Friday, but sixth day reporting consensus is that camp started Thursday, with a mandatory team meeting of some sort.1 hour 47 min ago
mojicianEveryone agrees that after six days @MoneyLynch will be hit with some serious fines, but there is much dispute as to when the sixth day tolls. CBS and King 5 are reporting that the sixth day tolls on Tuesday based on the fact that Tuesday is the sixth day of pre season camp. You heard it on SSI that the sixth day may actually be Wednesday. You probably don't count the start of pre season camp in the sixth day computation. Six days after Thursday, the start of the pre season camp, is Wednesday, August Fifth. Lynch may report into camp tomorrow morning and only be hit with comparatively minor fines of $30,000 per day, which is a living wage in Oklahoma. Or not.1 hour 53 min ago
mojicianSixth day problems: If a player commits a Forfeitable Breach resulting in his absence for six preseason days after the start of training camp, the player may be required to forfeit up to 15% of his Forfeitable Salary Allocations, and up to an addition­ al 1% of his Forfeitable Salary Allocations for each additional preseason day missed after the six days, up to a maximum of 25% of his Forfeitable Salary Allocations. A player who misses five days or less of training camp may not be subject to forfeiture1 hour 59 min ago
mojicianIf the Seahawks went to court, they might be able to sue Lynch for damages relating to his strike as well as to void the contract. Could you imagine all the Lynch jerseys that are not going to sell because of the hold out?2 hours 14 min ago
Bat571DJ left the game Saturday with a "wrist contusion" apparently from a fielding play. He had handled the last two plays in the inning.2 hours 19 min ago
mojicianOf course, the court remedy of voiding the whole contract would only be desirable if Lynch's contract was burdensome to the Seahawks. The Hawks can quickly be rid of a striking Lynch without court by trading him to some other team for a football prospect. It is probable that plenty of teams would take a flier on Lynch in hopes of sweet talking him back to dat action, or by granting him a concession on his contract.2 hours 19 min ago
mojicianUnder the NFL, Player's union collective bargaining agreement, strikes and hold outs are strictly forbidden, and teams can go straight to court and bypass NFL arbitration law if there is a strike. I think the Seahawks could go to court and have a good case for voiding Lynch's entire contract for material breach if he continues his hold out into the regular season.2 hours 24 min ago
benihanaSore wrist - Ryan Divish ‏@RyanDivish "People asking about DJ Peterson being pulled from his game with Jackson. @CHarris731 says he took a ball off the wrist in the field."2 hours 35 min ago
GLSDJ has been out of the Jackson lineup for a few days now. He was pulled after 1 AB on Saturday. Anyone know what happened?3 hours 19 min ago
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moethedogMLBTR has it that the Cubs rejected a Yankees bid on Ruggiano. Initeresting. Are they looking at a better bid by someone else? Could be. He's a RHB OF'er worth getting. Franklin might do it straight up.6 hours 57 min ago
bsrDept of Who Knew? Per Wikipedia: Benjamin Isaac Broussard (born September 24, 1976) is an American professional baseball first baseman. He is currently a musician, and still plays baseball in Mexico City, Mexico, for the Diablos Rojos and the Long Island Ducks in the Atlantic League of Professional Baseball ... Broussard has released two full-length music albums. The first, his self-titled album, was released in 2005. The second, Renovated, was released in 2009. He was also featured on the album, Oh Say Can You Sing?, a compilation of different Major League Baseball players singing their favorite songs. On that album Broussard sang U2's With or Without You. He is now a full-time musician.14 hours 41 min ago
Bat571vR ABs = 21416 hours 34 min ago
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Bat571When he first came up, he was able to do it - I'm hoping he can rediscover how.17 hours 7 min ago
Bat571We'll just have to see what Mr. Ackley does when pitchers adjust. When he was pulling off, the books was away,away. Now that he's staying on the ball and obviously seeing it well, they'll start busting him and moving his feet. If HoJo can get him through that by helping him keep his hands in and scorch a few down the RF line while not pulling off, then the skills change will start to show - he'll see the ball more consistently and his walk rate should increase and his Ks go back down to his minors numbers. IF ......17 hours 16 min ago