Angels 3 …..

STOP DA FIGHT

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Angels' corner tossed in the towel about two 4-run innings ago, I think ...

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Bottom Line

Paxton goes to 5-0, 1.75 in his first six MLB starts.  Maybe Gordon can draw us up a list of SP's who were 5-0 and 6-0 after six starts?

He's got 34 strikeouts and 9 walks, with 4 homers allowed, in 36.0 IP.  A nice symmetrical TTO line of 8.5 / 2.25 / 1.0 ... the two starting pitchers with the most similar TTO's to that, over the period 2011-13, are CC Sabathaa and David Price.  Like we sez, Paxton has deviated from script.  He has been pitching more like the virtuoso's than the napalm divebombers Koufax and Kershaw.

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IP 1 - Paxton digs into the 3-run hole

Conventional wisdom -- that on TV, anyway, from McClendon & Blowers et al -- was that Paxton was amp'ed up for the Big Home Opener.  Made a few mistakes in the first, but settled in and mowed them down later.

SSI's take is different.

......

Start by understanding:  K-Pax is in a mode now to where he "gets too much of the plate," like Pineda did for a short while.  I mean, not really - for Paxton it is not much of a problem, but hold that thought.  The starter point here is:  the batters know that the ball is going to BE there.

The Angels had the motto, "Our best pitches will be early-AB and early-game fastballs" and they came out desperate to get Paxton early in the count.  If you study the GameDay, you'll find out that's exactly what happened.  He didn't particularly make worse pitches in the 1st than he did later, but ... the first time through the lineup, Zunino wanted to establish the heater.  The Angels realized it was now or never.

It really is nothing to worry about, not a long-term problem.  Randy Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, anybody like that ... the batters want to try to prevent the pitcher from "getting to his breaking pitches" with two strikes.  

Following a "lucky" ground ball single by Trout, Albert Pujols managed to get on top of a real high, letter-high, 92 fastball for a two-run homer.  The vast majority of the time, that ball is a fly out; there isn't really any adjustment needed, or maybe even any adjustment desirable.

(The pitch to Freese was a poor one.  Every pitcher makes 12 or 15 such pitches a game.)

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/resume script

After the Angels' top half of the first, the 2014 battle reverted to normal.  Over the next 8.5 innings and 2.7 hours, the Mariners collected 8 hits and 5 runs against the Angels' 1 hit and 0 runs.

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IP 2-3 - Paxton settles into the rocking chair

First guy up in IP 2 was Raul Ibanez ... Paxton kinda got away with one, a 91 MPH fastball out and over, ground ball out by Ibanez.  But from there:

  1. Paxton out-muscled the bottom of the Angels' lineup as he found his velocity on the night, and
  2. The second time through the lineup, he started sequencing and they had no chance.

For example, here's the leadoff guy Calhoun, first man up in the third.  Paxton starts him with a high fastball, then tosses two "roll off the table" hooks and it's See You Later.  Like Randy Johnson against John Kruk.

Then against Mike Trout:

  • Smokin' hot 94 fastball at the knees, 0-1
  • 87 change, off the plate, a "show me" pitch, 1-1
  • 95 fastball down-in tears Zunino's glove off, swing through, 1-2
  • Big yakker rolls off the table, the fabulous Mike Trout achieves the unpossible:  to ground out weakly

And so on.  The cliche on these Walking Death Machines -- Koufax, Unit, Guidry, Paxton -- is get them before they start sequencing, or mail in the loss.  You see why.

(If you're curious, Albert Pujols finished IP 3 by grounding out on a 95 MPH cut fastball right on the inside black -- Albert looks like he's back to his 1.000 OPS this year.)  

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IP 4-5 - Stop Da Fight

In the 4th, after the M's took the lead, Paxton struck out the side with ridiculous ease.  Like they say, if there's a higher league, James Paxton would go to it ...

The at-bat against Hamilton was a mercy killing.  Paxton threw a yakker for a gimme strike one, and then two power slider/cutters looked like Unit-vs-Kruk again:

It could very well be that LH batters grab a lot of bench against Paxton, like they did against Randy Johnson.  He'll start sweeping that cutter to the outside corner and it'll get ugly.

..........

Paxton isn't going to go undefeated for his career.  He's groping in the dark out there.  But his debut stats run 8+ strikeouts, 2+ walks, 1.0 homers, and Dr. D is here to tell you that James is just now realizing that they can't handle his best game.

B'lee Dat.

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IP 6 - the "Slight Lat Strain"

McClendon in the postgame emphasized the "slight" part.  As we all know, "lat strain" is a catchall that is sometimes applied to bone cancer or demonic possession.  In this case, based on watching Paxton throw, we'll gingerly guess it is a --- > slight lat strain.

Supposing that he's out for 4-5 turns ... Taijuan pitches on Wednesday and could easily slide right into Paxton's slot.  With three major benefits:

  1. Lightening Paxton's eventual IP load on the year, and keeping him fresh to win 4 games in October :- )
  2. Giving Roenis Elias a chance to show he's Livan Hernandez
  3. Giving Chris Young a chance to show he's going to be back to 2007-09 for a few months

You'll get the followup reports before I do.  Gordon, you know what to do, eh hoser?

.......

Nervous thought of the day:  Dr. Mike Marshall broke something in his ribs, essentially ending his reign of terror, by adding a new pitch.  Felix Hernandez got that forearm strain when he got transfixed by the swerveball.  I hope that Paxton's new lat strain isn't because of the new cutter, but it's entirely possible.

The chance of those two things being causative ... oh, 5%, we'll guess.  But just so's you know we're payin' attention.  Paxton only threw 8 cutters in 60 pitches, so it's not like he went nuts with it, and that's what bit him.

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Bullpen

First seven games, we have seen our Best. Case. Scenario.

Wow.  SSI thought this group could easily bring the 2014 Jenga tower down.  Instead of that, they're out there one-up'ping each other.  And Justin Leone has hurled himself onto the pigpile.

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Dr's Prognosis

The little DL stint is going to distract every other blog from the real news tonight.  That being, "James Paxton is having wayyyy too much fun out there."

Focus boys focus,

Dr D

 

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Comments

...Is that it is a lot like "tendonitis." In doctor-ese, tendonitis means, "something is inflamed, and we don't know why.  Could be oversuse, or structural issues, or a torn whatchamicallit. Rest and see if it gets better."

A "lat strain" diagnosis means "something near your shoulder on your back went wonky, so we're hoping you didn't rip teres minor, jack up subscap, or mess up rib cartilage or an oblique.  The biggest muscle, that covers the whole area, is the lat, and it would freak out and seize up ANYWAY if something went wrong with a smaller muscle (rule #1 of musculature: big muscles attempt to cover up for small muscles when things go wrong) so we'll call it a lat strain and hope you didn't mess anything else up."

Paxton didn't seem too bothered, but I'm glad he didn't throw the next pitch.  If it IS a simple lat strain alone, it's merely an annoyance to recover from. Strasburg went through it last year and got DLed, IIRC - but only missed a couple weeks.

So that's what I'm hoping for.  Get the all-clear on other muscular and structural issues, don't push him that first week, and let him take the mound again after skipping a start or two.  We'll see - he might not miss any time, but I'd give him one turn out of the rotation, minimum.

~G

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That we know he is. Glad to see him shooting out of the gate like a star in his big-league career - he's got crazy amounts of talent, and being able to dismantle lineups like this keeps proving (to himself more than anyone else) that he can dictate to anyone.

Glad we pulled out the win for him, and hope that he'll be good to go shortly and continue his assault on the league. I'm okay with having dueling ROY candidates in Paxton and Walker. 

That really would be fine with me. Make it so.

~G

2

...if there's nothing else wrong at all that they can see, then I would just rearrange and have Young take a start with that extra off-day and see if paxton feels good in a bullpen session...if he has any issue at all...he sits a start and you give the ball to Walker next Tuesday. If he has no problem in bullpen, he goes as scheduled.

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Bat571Jesus Montero is spending the winter (with his family) in Peoria and will be working out under supervision. If he takes this in the right spirit, and his wife realizes that they won't make the big bucks until Jesus proves he can stay in shape physically and emotionally, maybe Z will salvage him yet. If he could turn himself around and take the DH spot and (~) run with it, that would solve one problem and leave more resources for a corner OF. It may be my inner Pollyanna talking, but an .800 OPS from him at DH, with closer to .900 against LHs would sure solve some issues. Boy, Jesus with his head on straight and JJ hitting bendy stuff -- c'mon, Santa!!!3 min 49 sec ago
Bat571Brandon Finnegan was a revelation. A LH Leone? What a performance by that kid!39 min 18 sec ago
DaddyOOne of those games that makes all the boring ones worthwhile. Yes, baseball is frequently boring. But when it's good, it is very VERY good!51 min 42 sec ago
Bat571With JJ, Taylor, Miller, Ackley, Jackson, Saunders, and Kivlehan, Marte, and even Hicks coming, M's team speed is a strength going forward. Smoak and Morales may not be around next year, which means a significant net gain as well. Good things ahead.54 min 27 sec ago
SABR MattBat571 won the internet with his James Jones nod - "learn to hit bendy stuff, JJ" indeed. Get him hitting .285 and drawing a few walks every now and then and he can lead off or hit 9th for me anytime.56 min 44 sec ago
SABR Matt7 different Royals stole bases today.58 min 4 sec ago
SABR MattDerek Norris is the worst defensive catcher in baseball.58 min 18 sec ago
SABR MattGoodness...what do you suppose Billy Beane is thinking right now? He's tried to win every way imaginable and keeps getting immediately blitzkrieg'ed out of the post-season. Still no World Series appearances for Chokeland.58 min 56 sec ago
Bat571Royals again prove Billy Beane's stuff doesn't work in the playoffs. Oakland doesn't leverage Lester's fine start into anything. The A's are gonna think about this one for a while. And KC proves speed can still kill. Learn to hit bendy stuff, JJ!59 min 48 sec ago
SABR MattYES! EAT IT, OAKLAND!!1 hour 1 min ago
SABR MattOrcs continue to struggle under the lights...got an 8-7 lead int he 12th and immediately gave it back. :D1 hour 12 min ago
rick82I saw the ump burn the Royals with two borderline strike non calls, resulting in a three run homer by the Orcs. Glad to see the Royals tie it up.1 hour 38 min ago
DaddyOThis AL Wild Card game is something else...going to the bottom of the 10th tied 7-7. Love that the A's coughed up a lead that looked like a sure thing.2 hours 2 min ago
Bat571WWPD? -trade for Kemp and Butler, sign Lester, and win 117.2 hours 10 min ago
MtGrizzlyThere is probably a decent argument for a good old fashioned Pat Gillick style off season. WWPD? (What would Pat do?)2 hours 21 min ago
bsrThe best thing about this season is it put us back on the map as a non-joke franchise. I mostly credit McClendon and Cano for that. I think we'll have an easier go selling players on getting on board the bus this year than we've had in the past. The travel, weather, and soul killing stadium for hitters still don't help, but at least we look like a winner on the upswing with some talent and resources now.2 hours 26 min ago
bsrHa well, how about that. Good timing in the shout box I guess. I have just learned that when it comes to deciphering what the M's are doing, it's best to follow the cash flow and everything else follows from that. Payroll was $78M in 2013. In 2014 they got +$25M from MLB national TV contract, and payroll wound up around $100M. Attendance was +300K, I don't know what the net margin per attendee is but let's say $30, that's another $9M. Project another +300K in 2015, and you are at $121M (78+25+9+9). That is without adding any benefits of the M's own TV deal (I've never seen good detail on how this deal works accounting-wise, so I leave it out). So, that is where I expect them to budget payroll, $120M +/-, depending on what talent is available, and how season ticket sales are trending early on. $110M payroll would be extremely conservative IMO, I think it will be higher. I could see $115M and keep some powder dry for a big add midseason.2 hours 31 min ago
SABR MattI also do not believe we will make any trades that require us to deal someone Jack Z likes from the prospect depth. This year taught us that his wheel of AAA movables (guys who can come up and go down whenever he wants) can be an effective way to keep more relievers up, to rotate through options for the bench, to shake up the roster etc. I don't think Z will want to give that up.3 hours 38 min ago
SABR MattI think payroll will go up. By whatever ity takes to add two bats that the Mariners can spin as being significant upgrades at least slightly believably. I'm guessing our big adds will be of the caliber of Cuddyer or Willingham.3 hours 40 min ago
mojicianZ Interview: Dan Hultzen is pitching and receiving favorable scouting reports. He is being shut down until January.4 hours 56 min ago