December 2009

Here is an article by Carson Cistulli, following Matt Hanna, in which he finds that you can identify high-K, dominating pitchers more easily by looking for pitchers who can induce fishing outside the strike zone. 

As Jeff Sullivan has emphasized, K/9 can be predicted from swinging-strike percentage.  (Don't get carried away; you can predict a hitter's AVG too, from his K rate, but it's not an absolute.)

In essence, Hanna found that he could better predict "Expected Strikeout Percentage" by weighting "fishing" strikes against "in the zone" strikes.

Read more >

Part 1

Part 2

Jordan s free throw trickQ.  So what would you do with Aardsma?

A.  Assuming that there was a team that bought into his closing, I'd deal him, and right now.

But if that's not possible, hey. 

Read more >

Part 1

Q.  Is Aardsma any good?

A.  Sure he is.  He's a white-knuckle power reliever.  There's a place for every pitcher who can strike out 10 men per game.

We're not trying to draw Disney pastel cartoon characters here.  Guys who fan 10, and walk 5, have a role.

.

Jordan s free throw trickQ.  Why is he good?

Read more >

Give yer my 25 for your 25Q.  So, why wouldn't the M's take advantage of Bay's desire to play here?

A.  I don't doubt for a second that Zduriencik, like Taro and others, disliked

1. Bay's RH flyball bat in Safeco
2. Bay's age at the end of the contrat
3. The fact that Bay isn't a plus defender

Add those things up, and I will cheerfully admit that this might not be the guy you want to build around -- and that Zduriencik might well have been reasoning this way.

Read more >

Arte Moreno has apparently decided that if his ship is going down, it's going down in a spectacular ball of flames.  The Angels have signed Fernando Rodney to a 2 year 11 million dollar contract to apparently complete their off-season in spectacular failure.  I say their off-season is complete because, as I will show momentarily, they are now essentially out of money and are left with possibly trading for one more mediocre starting pitcher or signing other bit payers.

Here is the new Angels Payroll for 2010 and 2011

Read more >

• CF) Torii hunter: 18.5 / 18.5


• OF) Gary Matthews Jr.: 11.4 / 12.4


• SP) Scott Kazmir: 8.0 / 12.0


• RF) Bobby Abreu: 9.0 / 9.0


• SP) Ervin Santana: 6.0 / 8.0


• RP) Fernando Rodney: 5.5 / 5.5


• C) Mike Napoli: 3.5 (arb 2) / 5.5 (arb 3)


• CL) Brian Fuentes: 9.0 / FA


• LF) Juan Rivera: 3.2 / 3.3

Throwin all kindsa stuff by me nowPer MLBTradeRumors, the A's are very interested in Beltre.  They would need for him (and Boras) to scale back his $10-15m per season price tag, for something designed for 'an Oakland economy sized package.'

The catch-22 is that if Beltre accommodates Oakland with a value contract, at that point San Francisco, Detroit, and St. Louis are supposed to be interested.

Odd that the A's, with a hole at 3b, would deal Brett Wallace and then start arguing with Boras about the degree of Beltre's career downslope.

.

=== Transition Year ===

Read more >

You canNOT be SERious, LAHQ Riff:  Elite skills masked by aberrant HR/F, Strand %.

BPV, xERA tell the true story (130 and 2.89 - Dr D).

The closest 2009 comp for this extreme GB, Power profile?  Some guy named Broxton.  Similarly, with the opportunity...

UP:  Broxton-esque save totals.

.

SSI Mixing Board:  Usually Ron will wait on a would-be closer.

Read more >

EurekaPart 2 is the main part.

If you think Zduriencik get or trade players based on WPA, WAR or WAR/$ you see only 200 of 1000 bulbs.

How was Aardsma's or Gutierrez's WPA or WAR 2008?

How was the projection for 2009 in 2008 when Zduriencik aquiered them?

Just the results;

Aardsma and Gutierrez have been the second best players behind Felix and Ichiro in 2009!

Now let me tell a story about a car dealer. Zduriencik is the GM of a cardealer which sells Lexus. He has 3 managers and 25 salesmen. 23 are OK but 2 are losers with the names A and B. He ask the manager if they can turn the losers to winners through motivation and teaching. The answer was A can turn around but no hope for B. Zduriencik fires B.

Read more >

Plenty nuff Bavasi prospects leftI/O: Corey Brock, at the Padres' site, relays that Kevin Kouzmanoff trade talks have hyper'ed down.   Other commentators wonder if this doesn't mean that they're getting more serious about keeping Gonzalez trade variations open.

CRUNCH: Brock used to be a local Seattle writer, for those of you who joined us late, and does a good job of separating actual data from his own speculation.  This snippet probably means that the Padres' people that Brock runs into, are reflecting a lack of action on Kouzmanoff.

Read more >

Give yer my 25 for your 25=== Yo Mick ===

It's not just Cool Papa Bell and CPB's acolytes, who think that Saunders could become a 5-tool star in the American League.  That is backed by Baseball America's ranking -- and by the fact that the Mariners themselves moved Saunders to the front of the line and got him into Safeco.

Nobody rated Saunders as less than a premium prospect.   That's because he isn't.  Less than a premium prospect, I mean.  I was skeptical about him -- until I saw him.  

He's got a lightning-quick bat launch.  He's got an excellent competitive makeup.  He's got tall, lanky leverage on the baseball.  He runs like the wind.

Read more >

Say the colour . . .=== Sweetness In Seattle, Dept. ===

Geoff Baker with a tremendous job, as usual, of asking the right people the right questions. 

Here's a great example of the value of the fact-finding sector trumping that of our logic-and-speculation sector. :- )  We could have argued all winter about what the logic of the trade was.  Baker found out what it was.

Read more >

Bright Lights, Big LeaguesSpec' says,

I think their approach with Bay is "if he falls into our lap as a tremendous bargain, fine; otherwise, pass."  At least that seems to be the way they're treating it.

Why?

(1) LF is their flex point: MB will play there some when Jr is the DH.  Saunders some.  Figgins can flex out there when Tui plays 3b.  The ABs you want to spread around Griffey-Saunders-Tui would all be stomped out by Bay.  Otherwise, you're taking Bradley's bat out of the lineup to get those guys in, and that doesn't make sense.  (In other words, LF is covered -- by the sum of your part-time parts.)

Read more >

You canNOT be SERious, LAQ.  What's the bottom line on the trade?

A.  Most World Series winners have lockdown, HOF-type closers.  Apparently Jack Zduriencik felt it was time to add this piece of the World Series puzzle.

The value of a KRod, Rivera, or Papelbon is completely invisible to base-out metrics.  It is an example of Zduriencik's feel for the game of baseball.

Bavasi shared this belief, that a championship team begins in the bullpen.  The 2004 Angels had three terrific lockdown short relievers.

Read more >

Stars n Scrubs babySSI has tentatively pegged Jack Zduriencik as one of the best GM's in baseball.

This is not because SSI views Jack Zduriencik's IQ as >140 and other GMs' IQ's as < 90.  :- )   As you know, SSI considers this general paradigm to be unhelpful. 

Dr. D has been many sordid and unflattering places in his 47-odd years, and among the seamiest of those places have been the halls of Fortune 500 corporate America, as a consultant / assistant / gofer / whipping boy of executives from level 2 up to level 5.

Believe him, when he tells you, there is no such thing as a dumb executive.  Not when you are talking about u-p-p-e-r management in a large company. 

Read more >

Wailing and gnashing of teeth on the Brandon for Brandon swap.  Mostly, this is due to the (IMO - utterly preposterous) idea that Morrow has a shot at becoming a legitimate TOR starter some day.  This belief is built primarily on a PERCEPTION of overpowering stuff with gaudy 10/g K-rates.  This is further buffed by a visual perception of outstanding mechanics.

The perceptions of how good Morrow is - or might one day be - are built more on hope than of actual production and performance.  In short, the strong tendency with Morrow has been to heavily weight each good performance and blithely dismiss all the bad ones.  Hopefully, I can point out precisely why the perceptions of Morrow have been overly inflated AND explain why Captain Jack likely just dumped a guy who will AT BEST become a palatable set-up guy some day.

Read more >

Didn t get cheated on this unJays' fans are spreading a rumor that the prospect the M's get back is Brian Dopirak.   I don't mind noodling around about meaningless rumors.  Typing is not one of my problems :- )

...........

Dopirak is a huge, RH first baseman who in 2004 had the kind of season only four or five Mariners farmhands have ever had.  As a 20-year-old, much younger than his teammates, playing in a pitcher-friendly Midwest League, Dopirak posted an amazing SLG or .593 -- about 40 doubles, and about 40 homers, in 137 games.   Carlos Triunfel wishes he could put those kind of results up.

Read more >

Floooooaaaaaaaat . . .It is quite reasonable to view Brandon League as simply a better pitcher than Brandon Morrow.

I spent, er, wasted my time defending Brandon Morrow's value for how long now?  Fifteen years, has it been?  There are 1,000 hours of my life I'll never get back :- )

................

If League is going to become the next Jonathan Papelbon, OR CERTAINLY if we start hearing about the rotation, well.... League throws every inch as hard as Morrow, and unlike Morrow has his wipeout offspeed game all ready to go.

Read more >

You canNOT be SERious, LABrandon Morrow, in his last outing, got the ends of his fingers slightly more on top of the baseball at release, per Adair's gospel.  He threw, IIRC, a 1-hit shutout with 10k's (or something very similar). 

That outing is entirely reproducible.  Just a quick visual to twist the knife a bit.  ;- )

If he is indeed moving out for Brandon League and a prospect, we can see three completely different scenarios in which this helps the Mariners win their next pennant:

.

=== Prospect ===

Read more >

Hit em here amigoQ.  How good was he in 2007-08?

A.  He had a batting line of 310/425/550, in 750 plate appearances across 24 months.

In terms of HR rate, walk rate, doubles rate, speed ... he was a switch-hitting Edgar Martinez.  With a few more dings and few less walks.

He was Matt Holliday, if Holliday had a little more OBP.

He was Jason Bay, if you added 30 points of AVG, OBP and SLG.

Read more >

Part 1

My best against your best, MikeQ.  Do you like Milton Bradley, Doc?

A.  Sure.  I think he's cool, as far as his personality.

The 1970's-ff Oakland Raiders built a dynasty, in part, out of taking misfits and giving them a home.  Ted Hendricks, Lyle Alzado, Lester Hayes, Jim Plunkett, guys like that ... the Raiders just didn't care how they acted off the field.

John Madden dealt with this collection of berserkers by telling them they had two rules:  show up to practice on time, and play like crazy when I tell you to.

....

Read more >

A-Gon.  Nick Johnson.  Branyan.  LaRoche.

Every other day someone is pushing the idea of some 1B import to come and pump up the offense for the Ms.  And in nearly every case, the idea that the Ms "might" have a LONG TERM 1B option nearly ready in AAA as we speak isn't mentioned.  I appear to be the only guy on the planet, (except perhaps Captain Jack), who believes that Carp is being SEVERELY under-rated by the masses.  So, I thought I'd explain why I believe this.

The obvious:  He's a high OBP 1B with some power, (which is exactly what Johnson and LaRoche are).  He's also effectively free of charge.  He turns 24 next June, so still 3 years away from peak. 

The subtle: 

In 2005, as a 19-year-old in A-ball, Carp posted a .249/.358/.476/.834 line with 19 HRs in only 89 games (313 ABs).  He *HAS* power.  But, he also had a 35/96 BB/K split.

Read more >

Stars n Scrubs babyIt sure seems to me that if they really wanted Jason Bay (as in "really, really") they could have signed him by now.  Z seems to be sufficiently lukewarm that's willing to wait out Bay and see if a better fit doesn't develop.  Also a sign, I think, that they are high on Saunders.

Read more >

Part 1

Aces 1 and 1a=== Caveat Emptor Dept. ===

There is one major problemo with the above comps. 

True, they all match well in fastball velocity.  They match well in that, as a group, they had plus command.  And they all had superb control ratios. 

The first thing you notice here, is that most of them finished their careers with ERA+ of around 110-115.

Cliff Lee, of course, just finished posting two ERA+ a whale of a lot better than that:  he was 131 last year, and 168 (!) the year before that.

Read more >

I'd just like to take a step into the "wav back" machine and take a look at the Mariner depth charts at the moment of Jack Zduriencik's inception as GM - side by side with the current Mariner depth chart assuming the Cliff Lee deal does indeed get finalized tomorrow morning.  We'll use italics to represent players you cannot win your next pennant with, and bold to represent players you can without question win your next pennant with.  For minor leaguers this is based primarily on the odds of that players making some positive major league contribution within a short time period.

Catchers:

1. Kenji Johjima - Adam Moore
2. Jeff Clement - Eliezer Alfonzo
3. Rob Johnson - Rob Johnson
4. Jamie Burke - Travis Scott
5. Adam Moore - Jose Yepez

First Basemen:

Read more >

Tough crowd out EastAn article by Nick Cafardo in Boston states that the Padres have offered Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox for:

1.  RHP Clay Buchholz

2.  RHP Casey Kelly or OF Ryan Westmoreland (Sox' choice)

And that the deal is not going through, because Kelly and Westmoreland are both untouchable in a Gonzalez deal.

To which we can confidently respond, "huh?"

............

Read more >

What s the 81st mill do anyway, broJust guessin' tonight, but hey.  It's a baseball chat.  Here's more guessin'.

.

=== Extension ===

Word is that the Phillies asked Lee about an extension and his agent stood firm at "5, 6 years, Sabathia dollars."   Meaning 20-23 mills per.

Remember, though, it's a new league for Lee.  And it's a town he had been in for a couple months, and if you've ever been to Philly, it's not the most livable city in America.  No offense, but it's easy to imagine that Lee didn't particularly want to play in Philadelphia.

.

Read more >

4th outfielder and then someIf you like Baseball America, you'll love Jay Yencich's analyses of the M's minor leagues.

It sort of reminds us of Bill James, back in the late 80's, warning his most hardcore fans... hey, if you live in Cleveland, you're going to know more about the Indians than I do.  But I'll try to help you out on the other 29 teams.  (Bill often pointed out stuff we didn't know about the Mariners, too, of course.)

Baseball America has some crack analysts, but there is no way that any national analyst is going to keep up with Jay on the M's minor leaguers.  If you pay $6 for a copy of Baseball America off the newsstand, consider yourself extra fortunate for this read.

Read more >

Stars n Scrubs babyIf folks pencil out this move according to the same standards used to evaluate the Erik Bedard trade, it will undoubtedly look like a disaster.  

If the M's give up several young talents for Lee, they'll obviously take a pounding within the Net Performance Profit paradigm.  I mean, if Michael Saunders provides you even two years of mediocrity, that's $20m performance profit right there.   All of the Adam Joneses and Carlos Gomezes of the world turn you the $8m, $10m yearly profit just by being average.

....

Read more >

Ahhhh, we re just playin=== Jonny Gomes Non-Tendered ===

Let's say that you were looking for a Three True Outcomes muscleman who fit the following criteria:

1. 60-to-160 EYE
2. 27-30 HR per 162 (so far)
3. 435 feet is routine when he gets his pitch

You can't use Jack Cust, because Cust's EYE is a reliable 0.50; Jack Cust walks a ton.  Like 100-120 times per full season.  Extreeeeeeme pitch stalker.

Read more >

Wang Needs a CrutchWith talk flying around the Mariner blog-o-sphere including raves from Jason Churchill and a generally positive vibe in most circles regarding Chien-Ming Wang (recently non-tendered by the mighty Yanks), I think it's important to put this issue forward in its own thread here.

Q: Could Wang's foot injury and subsequent arm problems be related?

A: Of course they could.  He was rushed back into action after badly hurting his foot on a fielding play.  You ever try throwing a baseball as hard as you can while your foot is throbbing?  It screws with your delivery and you end up with a sore arm.  I've done it, and it's not fun.

Q: So does that mean you think his off-year in 2009 was due to injury?

Read more >

That deaf dumb n blind kid... In this article, we mentioned the subject of good wrists in the context of hitting mechanics ...

If there were two places you'd want to start, in judging a hitter's ability to adapt to new pitchers, they would be (1) EYE ratio and (2) wrists.  That is the front end and back end of reaction at the plate.

Let's put on the Elton John glam eyeshades and check a couple of M's through this lens:

.

=== Jack Wilson ===

Read more >

U can t touch thisA Red Sox writer states that three other teams are into Bay right now, alongside his own Sox.  He bases this on "a source familiar with the negotiations."  That's Bay's agent, in writer-speak.  Apparently, news of the death of the M's interest in Bay has been overstated.

Red Sox - pole position, though also supposedly hot on Holliday

Mariners - jemanji is hopin'

Angels - Sending signals that they have other priorities, but would be ok with a bargain

Read more >

Looks like .350 standin stillQ.  In the Gospel According to SSI, how much gas does Cammy have left in the tank?

A.   We sat down ready to write at the age of 36 -- turning 37 next year -- Cameron had not yet shown even the onset of senility.  

That's because his OPS+ has been 111 and 111 consecutively, the last two years -- even a bit higher than his career 107.  Beautiful! 

His EYE ratio is steady as a rock too.  He is most definitely a fast-twitch guy with the physique, in principle, to play late into his 30's.

............

Read more >

Here y go Mr HardenCool Papa directed us to Tango's response to complaints that the $/run (WAR) model might be broken.  I did scan Tango's initial response, though not the comments yet.

...............

Re: Tango's having to address protests that the model is "broken" -- it seems a lot of people don't get what the model is.  A person who asks whether the model might be broken, definitely does not understand the model, because it can't be broken.

That's okay.  Here are a few things we need understand and $-per-run and inflation:

.................

Read more >

This just in, all the talk of the Yankees not being in a rush to make moves has turned out to be a fib.  At least if the deal being discussed around the web is made official.  They've finally plugged the gaping maw that was screwing up their whole outfield defense - CF.

The Particulars of the Trade

For the Yankees:

• Curtis Granderson (CF) IN

• Ian Kennedy (SP)
• Phil Coke (RP)
• Austin Jackson (CF) OUT

For the Diamondbacks:

• Edwin Jackson (SP)
• Ian Kennedy (SP) IN

• Max Scherzer (SP)
• Daniel Schlereth (RP) OUT

For the Tigers:

• Austin Jackson (CF)
• Phil Coke (RP)
• Max Scherzer (SP)
• Daniel Schlereth (RP) IN

• Edwin Jackson (SP)
• Curtis Granderson (CF) OUT

Yowza!

Read more >

The Bakery is a veritable $1.99 buffet of pastries and pies this morning.  If any other blog had a fraction of this "hard" information, we'd be awestricken ...

Hit em there Dept..

=== Sittin' By the Doc on the Bay ===

As San-man aptly put it :- )

Doc has been waiting on pins and needles for the seismo that the M's were still in on Jason Bay, despite the Figgins signing.  And here is Geoffy, confirming exactly that.

Read more >

No big lossQ.  Was it justifiable, at the time, the Mariners letting Randy Johnson go?  After all, who knew he'd become a freak, start winning Cy Young awards and pitch till he was 45?

A.  I'm not sure that I follow you guys, offsite, about Randy Johnson getting good after he left?

His record was 43-6 his last three years in Seattle. (Is it okay to mention wins and losses?)

He was 75-20 his last five years. His ERA+ was 190 his last three years; in 1995 he was 18-2, 2.48 with 297 strikeouts and 64 walks.

Read more >

320 / 400 / 600 in there somewhere ?Matt tips us off that Geoff Baker tosses out an enigmatic Twitter, seeming to claim that Jason Bay would love to play for the Mariners.

Since the Figgins coup, I've been doggy-ears-up, harking for the gentlest whisper that the M's are still in on another big hitter.  Who knows, but...

.

=== Figgins vs Bay ===

The Figgins PLUS Bay rumors still have some traction...

Read more >

C mon feebleminds, I m great=== Angels Seen Wandering Drunk On I-5 ===

Jason at Prospect Insider says that the Mariners are "adamant" about signing either John Lackey or Rich Harden.

In free-agent parlance, that would mean that the M's have made strong offers to both, and it's a question of which one responds first -- if either do, of course.

Jack Wilson said, on the radio, that the M's landed him because their first offer was very close to what he thought he'd get in free agency anyway.

Read more >

Chone on crazy diamondSet out trying to convince myself that Jack might be right about Figgins -- if he lands Figgins, of course -- and whattaya know, the more I look, the more I see an argument for.

With Zduriencik right now, I'm kind of in the mode I'm in when sitting across from a grandmaster.  I suggest this and that and there, sure I'm right.  He chuckles and shakes his head no.  I think whoooops, okay, what did I miss.

Granted this post is a bit in that spirit.  Call me fickle.  I've got respect for the light bulbs that Zduriencik has on.

Where might they be?

.

=== In Theory, Dept. ===

Read more >

Back leg special, MikeyPOTD comin' Spec... sure enjoy the badminton matches you bring to the table bro'... this rat cheer is not a POTD, but if you want to mosh off the below, I'll be interested to see whatcha'll got :- )

Jason Bay is extremely similar to (a faster) Jay Buhner, offering a steady .500 SLG along with a gorgeous .380 OBP, as well as the 80-90 walks and 150 K's ... it is no accident that GM's are on him like bums on a baloney sandwich...

.

=== LF ===

Read more >

You shoulda seen the other guy

 Q.  So what's the saber assessment of him?

A.  What's to saber?   When the guy's on the field, he's awesome.  He and six or eight other guys, Halladay, Felix, Greinke, they overmatch their opponents.

Some years one's a shade the better, some years a shade the worse.  They're all Cy Young starters.  We're not using instruments fine enough to discern which one's better.  It doesn't matter much.

.

Read more >

I guess my post a few weeks ago on Edgar Martinez and the Hall of Fame made me into a bit of an activist on his candidacy’s behalf, because I’ve gone to the trouble of assembling a lengthy post elsewhere gathering up trivia, anecdotes, and select highlights from his career, with the aim of showing Edgar to be more than just a compiler of impressive hitting statistics. The core of what I found was Edgar impressively playing through two on-field incidents in September 1997 that left him literally in stitches. Here, taken from the post, is that story. I don’t know if this will convince anyone to vote for Edgar, but it’s a heroic tale and should at least help erase the notion that DHs lack the fortitude to play the field as well as hit.  

Read more >

... coming and going, er, Checking In Checking Out, being a category that Bill James has run when surveying decades in baseball.

.

=== Mega Mariner ===

As far as I can tell, this brand spankin' new site has been up for less than a month.

I like the "Around Baseball" style post in which Mega M's briefs yer on the news of the day and then tags out with its own reaction.   I think this kind of post is underdone ... after all, it's the bread-and-butter device used by sites like MLBtraderumors.com to kick their sites up to Borg-level domination.

Read more >

A very fine Fangraphs article here that argues, strictly in terms of ROI dollars gained and lost, that the Mariners would be a little better off to offer Beltre arbitration than not.

.  === Exec Sum ===

The argument reads:

1.  If Beltre accepts arbitration, he'd get $10-13m, but might be worth only $8-12m on the field.  That's a net profit value loss of "something like $4 million."   In other words, you figure on overpaying him by about $4m if he accepts arbitration.

Read more >