July 2009

Dont underestimate the oldtimersQ.  Washburn can't be having a career year.  Research shows that contract years don't exist.

A.  Well, maybe he isn't having a career year.  That's just my guess.  :- )  I wouldn't bet anything on it that I was afraid to lose.

But this point about false deduction is worth taking a minute.

....................

If the numbers show that the herd of cows, averaged, don't prefer clover to alfalfa,  and that just as many cows prefer alfalfa ... we conclude that it cannot be the case that Bessie over there prefers clover?

Read more >

Jack works the market on Wash=== It Ain't Over Till It's Over, Yogi ===

I've leaned against the Washburn trades BECAUSE I was assuming that you'd be getting back org thickener for Washburn. 

I'm not gutpunching the 2009 Mariners to get a couple 21-year-olds who won't make our top 20 prospects. 

The clubhouse has bought into your spiel.  They've swallowed their pride and fallen into line.   Now you're going to nod, satisfied at their submission, rear back, and deliver a thunderous kick to their coconuts?  

.................

Read more >

Last Glimpse of WashburnAs fans, we have a tendency to see what is right in front of us at any given time and to give a sort of progressive grade.  We analyze each move and each decision in isolation and we fail to see the bigger picture sometimes.  An example would be the worry in some sectors that we gave up too much pitching depth when we traded for Snell and Wilson, and I’ll explain what I mean further down.  I think it is time we looked at the full organizational depth chart from September 30th, 2008 and from July 30th, 2009 to get a feel for the work Zduriencik has actually done to retool a team that went 61-101 with what would have to be described

Read more >

Put a little gusto into it, mateQ.  Only 6 K's in 14 innings, but he looks invincible.  How can that be?

A.  On July 29th, RRS took the Jarrod Washburn Sounder Train To 21 Outs.  Take out a sharpened #2 pencil, 'cause it's multiple choice time :- )

..........

Rowland-Smith got 21 outs, 4 by strikeout.  Of the other 17 outs, how many were grounders?

1) 50%, same as his last game

2) 14

3) 3

4) I heard Dizzy Dean once got mad and told 7 fielders to sit down

Read more >

=== M's Sign Rich Poythress ===

As served up at the Bakery.

Poythress reminds me of Frank Thomas, not that I think he's that caliber of prospect naturally, but in several other things:

Read more >

Cyber-Seattle getting a little unpredictable in the back alleyQ.  What do you make of Baker's hypothetical on trading Felix?

A.  The usual sweet delivery out of da Bakery. 

There's a lot to calculate there.  More than could be "captured" with an algebraic equation.  :- )

The argument against?  Would begin with the fact that the 2010 season is important, more so than Geoffy allows for the sake of his argument (as he would tell you, also).  ML orgs don't trade Felixes (Felices?) in Y-3.

Read more >

The Mariners have finally made a major move, and it's with the intention of getting a sneak peak at the future. Wlad Balentien has been designated for assignment and certainly will be traded in order to make room for the Rainiers' best player, Michael Saunders.

The Skinny:  Saunders is a 6'4", 205 pound outfielder who bats  left-handed. He's 22 years old and in his fifth year of professional ball (fourth full season) after being drafted in the 11th round in 2005. He was rated the M's #2 prospect before the season by Baseball America.

The Fat: Defensively, Saunders has the speed and arm strength to handle center right now but is considered  to be a corner guy long-term. Even still he should be a plus defender in left.

Read more >

Deacon McGuire prepares to pour tea off the stove=== First, the Ballgame ===

0-9 is, I'm pretty sure, a forfeit score.  Which is exactly what our offense is doing, in a lot of these games.

FORFEIT, n. Something surrendered as a penalty for a crime, offense, or breach of contract.  "The Beaneaters did not show for Sunday's contest, causing a 9-0 score to be entered in favor of the Redlegs."  ... "The Mariners forfeited Friday evening's tilt in consequence of a misunderstanding that pitching and defense were the keys to baseball."  ;- )

.........................

Read more >

Cabrera's Wife Awaits Strike Three=== Tracer ===

AFLAC question of the day was:  who "stole for the cycle" three times in 1909.  I don't know whether they actually superimposed the question over a TV shot of the glorious "bronze" statue of Ty Cobb in the stadium. They might have separated the shots by a minute or two.

They don't work real hard to stump you, which is good, because they'll tell you before you've read the question.  It's like Hermoine was teaching potion class, asking the question and then raising her hand as high as possible, hopping up to get the fingers a bit higher into the air...

Read more >

Don' let the other teams see yaInteresting thread started by BKafflen at Mariner Central on Marco Scutaro.

.

Q.  Who is this guy?  I think I had him on my roto team for a month in 1998.

A.  As opposed to Jack Wilson, he hits a little more, fields a little less, and will take a dime instead of a dollar.

Jack Zduriencik's interest in Scutaro is, appropriately, the same as your roto team's interest in him.  He's a "steady Eddie" shortstop who fills in when the Grim Reaper has left your roster on life support.

Read more >

Enri with a fair question in the 14-In-A-Row comments:

.

=== Q ===

Generally, I'm entirely with you, Doc, on the value of Erikkkk. I still fantasize about Felix-Erik winning postseason series for us this year.

But in all fairness, isn't it time for you to own up to the fact that Bedard is more fragile than average. Your long time contention that he pitches if it matters, and babies himself only if the season is lost, seems to have been disproven by the timing of his latest trip to the DL.

How would you know you were wrong on Bedard's health forecast?

.

Read more >

=== AL / NL Gap ===

Taro links us up to an article that correlates the gap between the AL and NL to that of a 93-69 season.

The author, at Driveline Mechanics, doesn't have a lot of moving parts in the machinery of his thinking, and so provides some very sound logic.  He just adds up the runs scored by the AL (6,300+) and by the NL (5,400+), over the 600-odd games played the last 5 years, and then applies James' Pythagorean Theorem* to estimate "deserved" wins and losses.

The "deserved" wins are 93 per 162 games, whereas the actual wins were 92 per 162.   Another little piece of evidence confirming James' theory, by the way.

Read more >

Big DogsAt Mariner Central, an entertaining discussion is in flow as to the different paradigms by which we enjoy, and analyze, baseball.  

One thing's for sure:  we all, especially me, tend to analyze baseball play that we *like* as being the *more efficient* way to play baseball.  Ever notice how everybody's favorite rock band is also the greatest rock band?  :- )   Same with me, that being Boston...

Kelly triangulates us by pointing out that D-O-V is biased towards "greatness."  Spot on, mate.

Pardon us if we try to reduce the triangle further...

Read more >

2-1, babyAn interesting debate now runs ...

(1) this ballclub's record is actually worse in Bedard and Washburn starts than in other games, so (2) if you want to contend, don't you fret yourself about shedding Bedard and Washburn.  Not even if it's for minor-league "thickener."

It's 1975 calling.  They want their almanacs back.  Hey, Freddy Norman went 4-12 for us; let's ship him to the Reds...

Bedard (5-2) and Washburn (6-6) have modest records because they've battled low-scoring games to a draw.  They've gone .500 in the games we've scored 2 runs, leaving the other guys free to win when we score more.  (Yes, I know.)

..................

Read more >

Muscle up, Russ Our teenagers didn't want to come to the park tonight.  Jenny because she already went to a game this month, and John because he was buried in Guitar Hero.  Threw a $20 on the kitchen table and told them to hit the Godfather's buffet.

Came home to found out that Jenny had gone $12 for sushi and that John was still buried in video, not having had dinner.  Sighhhhh...

.................

Cindy is the kind of wife who will drop me at the corner, wheel off to go get parking, and let me walk up to get the tickets.  It was indulgence night, so I was going to surprise my girl. 

Read more >

This is going to be a short article, but, as I am once again tracking PythagenMatt for the AL West race I thought I would offer up that information here so you guys know where we are as we approach the end of the first half.

After 86 games, the Mariners stand at 44-42, 4.5 back in the AL West.  I've tallied up the single game pythag figures and arrived at some rather bearish conclusions.

First a reminder.  The PythagenPat W% estimator tool is a two-step formula following this format:

W% = RS^X / (RS^X + RA^X)

X = ((RS + RA) / G)^0.285

Read more >

Freddy Sanchez=== EYE RATIO ===

How many walks per strikeout for Senor Sanchez?

Age 27 - 0.75

Age 28 - 0.60

Age 29 - 0.42

Age 30 - 0.30

Age 31 - this year (TBD)

This is a player that, in a roto Keeper league, I would be V-E-R-Y careful about trading for.

A few facts, per Shandler at baseballhq.com:

.

=== EYE as Leading Indicator for AVG ===

Read more >

=== Mr. Made for TV ===

Was EdgarInside Pitch's nickname for the 2nd-year ARod, but now in a better sense might tag Mr. Gutierrez... :- )

In 1995, Wetteland fired that 95 heater in to Edgar with the bases loaded.  Our old STATS-AOL pal Steve22, a semipro catcher and Yankee fan, said that he threw his beverage can at the TV when the ball was in midflight.  

Edgar unloaded, Musburger (?) said "DEEP TO CENTER!" and then they gave us a full 120 seconds of silence as the TV cut back-and-forth between the M's, Yankees', and fans' reactions.   Moments like that remind you that you're not just passing time with the national pastime.

..............

Read more >

Q.  But Halladay actually WON'T give you a net performance profit on his salary like Wood is going to, right?

A.  Right.

Apparently, you have to win a couple of roto championships to understand why VORP/$ is not the goal at all 25 roster slots.

You use overperforming Scrubs IN THE BOTTOM 12 SLOTS OF YOUR ROSTER *so that* you can use your $260 to pack megatonnage into your top 6-8 slots.

You don't leave $100 on the table, go .500 for $160, and call it good. Value players are a means to an end, NOT an end in themselves!

...................

Read more >

 Q:  So now you think that Curtis Granderson, Mike Cameron and Franklin Gutierrez are the New MVP?

A.  No, but I do think that impact defensive players who can hold their own with the bat ... those are players you can win a pennant with.

Since the year 1900, managers have intuited that you can win with no-stick, great-glove players at four positions:  C, SS, 2B and CF.

Shortstop and second base get 5 outs* per game.  Center field gets 3.  These guys are in the middle of the action.  They get lots of chances to change games.

Read more >

Q.  What do you predict going forward?

A.  His FIP is 3.91, not 3.08 like his ERA is, but 3.91 is awfully good.  It would make him the #16 starter in the AL.

And FIP, in this case, undersells Washburn.  (For those who just joined us, FIP attempts to project an ERA if fielding didn't matter, park didn't matter and if an "average" percentage of outfield fly balls became home runs.)

Washburn is (1) a 3.91 FIP which is already a #3 starter on a playoff team, *plus* he is (2) a lefty throwing into Safeco's deep left field, *plus* he is (3) a fly ballpitcher in front of a great outfield, *plus* he is (4) very durable and consistent.

Read more >

Rob Johnson=== Deep Blue Can Play Chess, But It Can't Play Hockey ===

There isn't any way in the world to use math, or science, to answer the question "How good a defensive catcher IS Rob Johnson, anyway?!"   We don't even know how good a catcher Johnny Bench was, and we have a little more than 62 games to go on. 

The world is complicated.  A computer cannot "capture" an equation with literally 1,000's of variables.  The right tool for hockey playing is human intuition, not mathematical formulas.

.

=== My Intuition Being... ===

Read more >

Let's rewind to late January when the Mariners made a big splash trade, the particulars of which look like this:

Mets Receive:

• J.J. Putz (CL)
• Sean Green (SR)
• Jeremy Reed (OF)

Indians Receive:

• Joe Smith (SR)
• Luis Valbuena (2B)

Cubs Receive:

• Aaron Heilman (SR)

Mariners Receive:

Read more >

=== Sizzlers:  Capt. Jack ===

The man's scouting eye commands serious respect. 

Whether Jason Vargas goes into a power dive from here or whether he doesn't, it is obvious that Zduriencik called this one right.  Vargas was not even the primary player in the Putz deal, just a waiver-wire pickup so to speak, but you can see the moxie and bulldog mound presence that made Vargas a worthy gamble.

Mike Carp, also, needs approximately five pitches to show you that he *works* the strike zone.  He's got Alvin Davis-like presence in the box and obvious projectable power.

Read more >

=== F-Goot Once More ===

:- ) You can't stop Taro, you can only hope to contain him.  Comments threads with the daily tug-on-the-shirt as to whether I think Gutierrez is great.  LOL.

Again:  ... if Gutierrez can hit for a 110 OPS+, give or take, then considering that he plays in the middle of the field, and considering he's considerably BTA at that position, then he's a minor star.  No argument.

...................

His BABIP is .335 this year; his eye ratio is still bad; in Safeco he looks like warning-track power to me; and he's mediocre at best on the basepaths.   Don't try to sell me a lousy batting eye without plus power.

Read more >