June 2009

RB HR

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=== Vargas, #5SP ===

Lest anybody get the false impression that we're slow to give credit, where credit is actually due... let us remind you that Jason Vargas was a *throwin* on the Putz deal.

Vargas surprised the M's as much as anybody -- or he'd have been a feature piece of the deal -- but still, Capt Jack was the one who picked Jason Vargas out of a lineup and said, "let's try THIS guy."

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=== Franklin Gutierrez ===

M's broadcasts continue to show that Gutierrez has a marvelous zone rating.  It's cool to see the M's sabermetric team linked up with the face of the franchise up there in the broadcast booth.

How does this happen?  Typically, the saber employees sit in meetings with Tony Blengino, to whom they have full access on a day-to-day basis.  If it's a typical white-collar enviornment, you as a saber employee can talk to Blengino just like you talk to the guy in the cubicle next to you, though when you do get Blengino, it's usually in a small, casual committee, or perhaps in his office for 15 minutes at a time on his agenda.

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=== Dr's Prognosis ===

First five pitches against the Padres, Morrow finished "out in front" on four of them and pulled off one of them.  My 17-year-old son, a pitcher, was sitting on the couch.  Reality check, babe.  I slo-mo'ed it. 

[Good pitch] "Does that look like he's finishing out in front to you?"  (With the front side of his head traveling towards the plate on followthrough, and his right elbow closer to the catcher and away from his body, rather than closer to 1B and tight against his body.)

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One thing that we fans *consistently* do is assume that if a name doesn't look glittery to us, then the player doesn't have much value to other GM's.

To us, if a guy hasn't been on the Baseball America org top-10 for MULTIPLE years, then Theo Epstein and Kevin Towers don't know who they are.

That's just not the case.  Who in Seattle had ever heard of Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, or John Halama before Houston used them to acquire Randy Johnson?  Carlos Guillen's name hadn't come up a single time anywhere on the internet that I ever found -- but after the fact, we discovered that he was a 5-tool prospect who was considered an impact minor leaguer *only* by people inside baseball.

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=== Could We Not Chop-Block THIS Glove Man, Please ===

F-Goot, the night after Endy's horrific injury, played "500 Popup" with Frenchy again.  Both men were literally fighting for the ball until Betancourt came away with it and looked back, at which point Gutierrez pulled off of it.

I was amused to see him swing his left leg back and forth in the air after the play, as though subconsciously making sure that a Great White hadn't taken it off.

Matty didn't appreciate the play.  Silentpadna, like Spock, then throws a temper tantrum comprised of raising his eyebrow.

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Turns out Endy is really hurt bad.  What a shame.  We all feel terrible.

Blowers, on TV, advised us that it's the kind of play where the LF doesn't *know* whether he's going to get to the ball, and so he can't afford to call the SS off.  If you as an OF call the SS off, and he holds up, and the ball drops on the grass, and he looks at you having been able to make the play, well .... you can't do that.  And you never see that.

Betancourt, of course, has to try to make the catch until he gets called off, and even then there's a "point of no return" on the call.

Just one of those things that are part of the game, says Blowers.

...................

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Flip:  The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak, as good-guy Ronny rips along at .132/.185/.250. 

25 strikeouts and 4 walks, despite the cut-down swing, has the ref stepping in for another standing 8-count.  Stop da fight. 

The Mariners just claimed an infielder off waivers.

Chop:  You might get a chuckle out of this Jan. 28 SSI take on the Aaron Heilman trade.   Heilman was dealt for "just the kind of player the Mariners should be acquiring."  Definitely, if your goal is to get relegated so that you can stomp the league below yours.

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Q.  How'd he throw?

A.  He was tight in the first inning or two, not only all over the place, but seeming unable to really drive a fastball.  After about 40 pitches, he not only spotted the ball a bit better, but started flinging those high-90's fastballs in there.

It underlines the fact that Morrow simply hasn't thrown much this year.  Going into the Colorado start, he'd thrown all of 18 innings this entire season -- April, May, and half of June.  Jarrod Washburn threw 30 innings -- in spring training.

I think you have to take into account that you have a young guy who hasn't pitched himself in.  Judge his command after he's thrown 100 pitches four or five times.

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To paraphrase an old joke about the Brooklyn Dodgers, if we have the right team.  *Washington Senators, as Spec points out below. :- )

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=== SIZZLER:  M's Pennant Chances ===

Was surprised to read a bunch of panicky "are they out of it?!" shtick after the M's lost three in Colorado. 

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Flip:  Geoff Baker with an interesting report on Erik Bedard's shoulder.

Chop:  We may be getting a bit pollyanna here :- ) and if it turns out that Bedard's shoulder is Top Ramen at this point, fine, I'll cheerfully own up to a mis-read.

But my own cornball D-O-V translation of Capt Jack's and Wok's quotes are that they are classic "Sigh, roll your eyes, Erik being Erik" quotes.  When Wok says

"he felt a little stiffiness in there and didn't like what he felt. It's one of those things, you don't know how he feels,"

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Q.  His swinging strike rate is down.

A.  Are his strikeouts?

The modern trend to get more and more hair-fine about HOW a pitcher gets his strikes is very interesting.  But if a guy is getting 9K's a game and guys are swinging less, then they're freezing and locking up more.  So what?

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Q.  You're honestly not worried that he's getting fewer swinging strikes?

A.  Watch a ballgame.  YOU tell ME what you think of his stuff.  He's sicker than ever.

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Ken Griffey Jr. is another example of the power of the lefty walk in Safeco Field. Absolutely everything that can go wrong has gone wrong for Junior, including his .225 BABIP. He is hitting in the worst-case scenario -- providing the worst offensive season we could have predicted.

And in that worst-case scenario, he is improving the team, because he is its 3rd-best hitter. That is just how important the walk is, in Safeco Field.

If you are GM'ing in Safeco Field, two things should be important to you, contextually: 1) get strikeout pitchers. 2) get hitters who walk. Preferably lefthanded.

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SABRMatt sez,

+++++ Yuniesky Betancourt is getting a great opportunity to watch a far less talented middle infielder take his job. And his reaction? He doesn't show up for batting practice, take ground balls, or listen to his coaches at all...he pouts, makes cheap excuses, and boycotts his own life to get back at the boss for benching him.

You know what we call a guy like that? UNEMPLOYED

Betancourt is about to get his butt sent to A ball...and it's a short hop from there to the waiver wire. +++++

C-Points. :- )

The amazing thing to me, is how the other 24 Mariners have been both privately and PUBLICLY supportive of the rookie Wakamatsu imposing the doghouse collar on the entitled vet Betancourt. This rook manager is making all the right moves, playing his card with surgeon-like precision.

The media has joined in. Betancourt is absolutely the only one taking any heat. It is beautiful to see Commissioner Gordon take control of Arkham Asylum.

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I believe that he has very little chance of being moved to the bullpen, and for that alone, I am ready to kiss Capt. Jack on the forehead. A #2 draft pick who will make an impact. Vot next?

Capt Jack has, apparently, already ruled him out of the middle infield, despite his college coach's judgment that Ackley would be a "great" second baseman. There are huge advantages, and huge disadvantages, to this.

The huge-st disadvantage is that in Seattle, CF and RF are nailed down for five years, at least in the M's view. And now you're going to use your one "Chance" slot on the Yahtzee card. Where do all the other bat-first prospects go? Greg Halman is listed as the Mariners' #1 prospect by Baseball America. Does Ackley come at the cost of subtracting your current #1?

I potentially solve that by getting rid of Franklin Gutierrez, down the line. If Ackley can play CF decently, and if Gutierrez turns out to be nothing special, as I expect.

..................

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As you know, D-O-V is in favor of giving the cake a chance to bake. Prospect after prospect, we jazz all smooth about his callup, and then give him sixteen AB's to prove he's the real deal.

To me, that's almost the definition of talent judgment, though -- an Earl Weaver or Lou Piniella or Theo Epstein Pat Gillick can point his finger at a player and say, "THAT one" -- and then give the young player 400 or 800 or 1,200 at-bats to prove that he's the real deal.

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I'll take Felix and Bedard OVER any other 1-2 in the league right now. I'm talking about this season, two guys, who do you want.

I'm not interested in comparing Greinke and Meche's performances, over 10 games, tit-for-tat. I'm interested in the fact that Gil Meche isn't as good as Felix Hernandez.

Edwin Jackson and Justin Verlander are tough. Just not as tough as Felix and Bedard. (Jackson's career ERA is 4.69. It's not time to anoint him a top-10 starter.)

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RotoChamp Taro sez:

+++ Bedard is good but he aslo really fragile. For me it comes down to the contract terms. His agent wanted 7 years at $14mil per WHEN he was traded to Seattle. The market is DOWN since then. Dunn just signed for 2/$10mil.

Bedard takes 5 years for $65mil or so and its a deal. +++

I respect the position as being logical. But as you might guess, I'm going to ping-pong this one back...

The market was soft THIS winter, but do you expect $13M to be the going rate for the league's best pitcher, for the next five years?

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=== DRIVES ME CRAZY Dept. ===

Amazing that the defense over-shifts Branyan *even when Ichiro is on first.* This means that the defense is willing to concede not only a free single -- it is willing to concede even a free double. A bunt hit, with Ichiro on first, changes the situation from 1B, 0 out, to 1B + 2B, 0 out. That's the same as if Branyan led off with a double, and Ichiro walked behind him.

In the shift, the third baseman is playing SS, and cannot possibly turn a bunt into an out. Even if Mr. Friedrichsen from Up is running.

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The Big Unit wrapped up #300 and they had Tim Kjurkian on to trowel on the praise. He said two things that caught our ears:

1. That the Unit is one of the 15 or 20 best pitchers ever, and the third best lefty ever, behind Grove and (um) Warren Spahn.

2. That the next pitcher to win 300 games is absolutely not active in the major leagues right now.

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=== DAMNING WITH FAINT PRAISE Dept. ===

Almost as good as Warren Spahn! Wow, Bobby Sue, imagine that.

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Q: What do you do with Jeff Clement? You've got absolute embargoes going on at 1B and DH island.

A:

You say you'll change the constitution
Well, you know
We all want to change your head
You tell me it's the institution
Well, you know
You better freeeeeeeee your mind insteeee--heeaaaaaad
But if you go carrying pictures of chairman Mao
You ain't going to make it with anyone anyhow
Don't you know it's gonna be all right
all right, all right

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