May 2009

  • Captain Jack Snags His Bret Boone

    4 Comments

    === RUSSELL BRANYAN, SIZZLER ===

    We all know that Mr. Three True Outcomes is hitting .300/.400/.600 in fulltime play. We also know that he's got a BABIP near .400 -- despite playing in a park that devastates BABIP ...

    ... for most players. (Speaking of most players in Safeco, were you aware that Rauuuuuul is STILL slugging over .700?)

    Our QUESTION is, how good can Branyan be when hitting in normal luck, and for how long? Is he a player you can win your next pennant with?

    ...................

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  • To MOOORRRRRRRoooooowww...

    4 Comments

    === To MORRRRRow, To MORRRRRow Dept. ===

    As with Brandon Morrow's career to date, this 80-year-old song works beautifully -- provided you are a viewing it as a 4-year-old child on an ice cream bender:

    The sun'll come out
    Tomorrow
    Bet your bottom dollar
    That tomorrow
    There'll be sun!

    Just thinkin' about
    Tomorrow
    Clears away the cobwebs,
    And the sorrow
    'Til there's none!

    When I'm stuck a day
    That's gray,
    And lonely,
    I just stick out my chin
    And Grin,
    And Say,
    Oh!

    The sun'll come out
    Tomorrow
    So ya gotta hang on
    'Til tomorrow
    Come what may
    Tomorrow! Tomorrow!

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  • Felix' Worst Day Ever.

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    WakamatsuWakamatsuGeoff Baker has a very fine feel for the game of baseball.  Once again he puts his finger on the most important issues that face the Mariners going forward -- this time, Felix Hernandez' competitive disposition.  It goes directly towards the question of whether Jack Zduriencik and Don Wakamatsu want to build their pennantwinner around Felix Hernandez or not.

     

    Baker quotes Felix:

    "I'm not frustrated ... I made good pitches, they just hit the ball in the holes."

    This comment is perfectly reasonable, unless you're interested in living on planet Earth rather than dozing among the tangerine trees and marmalade skies.

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  • Felix' Pitchability and Effort

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    After the M's got Felix five runs and lost the game to their division rivals, Wakamatsu was furious.  Give him credit for his professional social veneer, but his anger was palpable even on the radio.

    One of the things that Wok talked about, was Felix putting little or no effort into holding runners -- and it was exactly this same frame-of-mind that had Felix grabbing the ball and throwing it without an idea.  He was evidently in a lazy-brain mode. 

    Felix had no "pitchability" -- no capacity for, and no interest in -- throwing the Angels the pitches that might cross them up.  He grabbed the ball and threw it mindlessly.  Read between the lines and you will see that general (lack of) interest in the game is what had Wakamatsu apoplectic.

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  • Trade Adrian Beltre Right Now

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    ... well, the moment that somebody coughs up a young player that you think you can win your next pennant with.  :- )

    ..................

    Sandy points out that the Brad Nelson signing could improve positioning unto an Adrian Beltre trade:

    ...........


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  • .300 - .400 - .500 at second base?

    2 Comments

    === PTI, Ackley at 2B ===

    Mt Grizzly finds the idea decidedly too optimistic:

    I love the optimistic angle as much as the next guy but...if the only examples that one can find where this type of move has worked are HOF-level guys, then I'm not sure how applicable it is.

    Mariner Central posters reply, in the main, that you're not losing much even if Ackley cannot play the infield.  If he can play 2B, you're max'ing out his value; even if not, he's still the #2, goes the volley.

    True dat.  But in Grizzle's defense, my argument was that you are PROBABLY looking at an infielder when you draft Ackley.  So lay down your clipboards and forget about the #3-8 candidates in the draft.

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  • The Seattle Sounders vrs. The Seattle Mariners

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    The SeaGals love the Sounders!The SeaGals love the Sounders!Different stadiums, albeit about 500 yards apart, I went to games of each sport in Seattle back to back to see what all the fuss was about the Seattle Sounders and if a Mariner's game was worth its price tag.

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  • Dustin Ackley at 2B? That's a #1-overall worthy player

    8 Comments

    CrustyJuggler pointed out Gammons' report regarding Ackley's potential at second base.  What gives the story traction is that Jack Zduriencik likes the idea.

    If Ackley actually moved from OF to second base, that would also move him from "Player of choice, in an uncomfortable draft position, in an uncomfortable draft" to "true #1-worthy pick."

    .

    === Feasibility Studies, Dept. ===

    Would it take Ackley four years, or eight, or what, in order to meet our local standards for aesthetically-pleasing defense?  ;- ) 

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  • Around the Horn, May 15

    4 Comments

    === Baseball (In Seattle) Prospectus Dept. ===

    It's never as bleak as it looks during a losing streak.  If the M's went 1-9 all year, they'd beat out the Cleveland Spyders for most losses...  hey, it was just a slump, kiddies.  This team has talent.  Starting with Felix and Bedard.

    Baseball Prospectus' W3/L3 stat has the M's talent level as that of a 15-20 team.  That's despite Beltre, Lopez, Betancourt and their catcher having OPS+ of 58, 75, 61 and 32 respectively.

    The infield has literally been A+ minor-league effective at the plate, and yet the equivalent runs for and against have been around .420 baseball.  This is a team with some talent.

    .

    === LF ===

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  • Mariners 5, Red Sox 4 - May 15

    2 Comments

    Ichiro5151Ichiro5151There are games we remember a long time.  For Cindy and I there were ... (1) a late 70's, early 80's game in which Tom Paciorek hit a walk-off three-run shot against the Yankees' Goose Gossage (or was it Ron Davis) ... (2) Alvin Davis' callup with the Mariners, batting 6th, in which he hit one into the upper deck at the Kingdome ... you know whatuh mean.  :- )

    I expect tonight's game to be in that category.  Down 0-4, terrible losing streak, Ichiro hits TWO homers to bring the M's back.  That's got to be Ichiro's only multihomer game in the bigs  -- past, present, future.  My son (6'2", 240 now) high-fived me literally as hard as he could and separated my hand from my forearm.  LOL.

    .

    I looked up at one point and Boston had 6 hits to the Mariners' 2.  Next time I looked up, it was 7 hits to 11, if I recall correctly.  

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  • Aardsma's Getting Lucky

    4 Comments

    === Mr. Magic Closer Dept. ===

    I admire David Aardsma's grit.  I admire his fastball, too.  But let's do notice that the difference between him tonight, and Brandon Morrow the last two nights, is luck.

    If HR/F* theory be at all legit -- and it mostly is -- then a shake of the dice was all that kept Jason Bay's final drive on Friday in the park, and in a manner of speaking all that cost Brandon Morrow the game before.  (A fraction of an inch on the ball, either way, is more a question of luck than we tend to realize.)

    .................

    Aardsma's RESULTS have been wonderful.  I'm not throwing this 1.50 ERA fish back in the water.

    But Aardsma as a pitcher hasn't been different at all:

    9.7 - Aardsma's strikeout rate this season

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  • Tale of Two Jakalopes

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    Fifth inning, even my wife wanted to know what was going on.  "That doesn't look like the same pitcher!"   She was referring to Jaka's tempo, his body language, and the fact that some of his pitches were not banging off the fence.

    ..............

    Between the 3rd and 4th innings, Jakubauskas evidently decided he was sick of backing up bases.  So he:

    1) Started mixing offspeed pitches in

    2) Therefore found a better feel for his fastball

    3) Clicked into "The Zone" as fast as you'd change channels from Oprah to Kobe

    4) Started pitching as though the ball was as light as a feather

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  • POTD Dustin Ackley

    2 Comments

    AckleyAckleyQ.  Cyber-Seattle is talking Ackley with the M's #2.  BB&T quotes a source that says that the Mariners are negotiating a contract, LOL. 

    Does D-O-V endorse?

    A.  Dustin Ackley would be the quintessential Dr. Detecto selection with the 2009 #2 pick.

    .

    Q.  What's the coefficient of confidence?

    A.  Not very high.  I don't know of any way for a behind-the-monitor 'net rat to get a good read on an amateur HITTER.  (Gimme a vid of a pitcher, with radar readings and college stats, and it's another subject.)   How are you, I, or Bill James his ownself going to tell the difference between one college All-Star and another?

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  • The 2009 and 1983 Mariners

    4 Comments

    BranyanBranyan

    You play two months to see what you have, two months to go get what you want, and two months to play for it all. -- Billy Beane

     

    Our good bud' San-Ral has argued eloquently that the M's offense would have plenty 'nuff to back the pitching and glovework, if we'll just give it a chance...

    A week or so back, counsel objected that although the OPS+ was low on the season, over the 14 days up to that point, it had rounded to about 100 for a two-week period.   Encouraging, we admit, but 'tis a bit like saying Yuniesky was slugging .405 on the season but .480 the last two weeks.  Doesn't everybody go up and down?

    ......................

    The M's OPS+ stood at 82 after 33 games, which is 1/5 of the season.   The last 7 days, it has been back to 83.

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  • POTD Jason Vargas

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    VargasVargas

    Published after Vargas' first start in 2009.  -- jjc.

    .............

    Q.  Boy, dat Vargas has looked purty good, hain't he?  1 run in 8.2 innings, including a great outing against all those righties *IN* Texas.

    A.  One of your all-time white-knuckle 1.04 ERA's.  :- ) 

    I don't know how many fly balls went to the warning track in Texas, but if even two of them had gone out, we'd be moving on to the next subject.

    .

    Q.  You don't agree with giving Vargas a shot in the #5 SP slot?

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  • Aumont, Fields, and Kelley

    6 Comments

    === Could the 1st-Rounders Help? ===

    Lonnie with two Texas-chili-robust threads on Phillippe Aumont and Josh Fields. The idea, of course, is to replace Shawn "11 K's and 1 BB" Kelley with somebody talented.

    As you know, I've got nothing against moving pitchers from college to the majors very quickly, and nothing against teenaged HS grads trying it, either.  In principle, the pitcher holds the ball, and when he's ready to execute his pitches, he's ready to learn in the bigs.

    In this specific case, however, I wouldn't recommend it, at least with Fields right now.  From what I've seen of Aumont and Fields' recent vids, they are genuinely raw -- not Kelley-raw where they need some refinement, but low-minors raw.

    ..................


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  • Reliever with the #2: Satire or It Could Happen?

    3 Comments

    Spec writes,

    There is a quantum leap of buzz about Tanner Scheppers rising all the way up to us at #2 after he went four innings of no-hit ball with 6 Ks in his independent league debut.  (Churchill apparently has him pegged at #2 now.) 

    No doubt, IF HEALTHY, he is the one guy who stands out as a clear-cut #2 overall talent.  Interested in your thoughts on one or both (with Vargas - jeff).

    Love Jason's emphasis on the pre-majors analysis that he is such an expert with.  Kudos to him for alerting us all to the possibility that Scheppers will be the next bonus-baby Mariner.

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  • How to Post a Comment

    2 Comments

    SSI and ProBall are now consolidated.

    .....................

    Several questions about how to post came in.  We're workin' it.  :- )    The new system, I believe, will eventually allow all readers to post front-page stories and has quite a few other features as well.  There's always a transition, though...

    ....................

    1.  Under the edit window (where you write your comment) there is an INPUT FORMAT area.   Open this and select "Full HTML."

    2.  Click "Disable Rich Text" (immediately under the edit window).

    3.  Click "Enable Rich Text" again (the toggle of "Disable Rich Text").

    4.  After you click "Preview" you'll hit "Save" on the next page.

    ....................

    Your comment should look fine, and we're working on the pre-screening/moderating. I'll be happy to post comments that are sent to me at MC or at my e-mail address.

    Thanks!,

    Jeff

     

     

     

  • Pepper

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    pepperpepper

    === The "Human Element" ===

    Stimulating, adult discussion at Mariner Central with interesting point-counterpoint on both sides.  There's a lot to be said for free speech :- ) -- and we're not talking about nominally free speech, but speech which is free in spirit as well as in the letter of the law.  When people are truly tolerant of others' views, you can get some very interesting idea exchange.

    /soapbox

    .................

    As usual, I agree with a lot of what Billy1 says:  that's a good way to put it, that's it's "part of the fabric of the game" that the umps have their own personal styles. 

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  • Texas 7, Mariners 2 (10 innings) - Cinco de Mayo

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    === Erikkkkkkk "Baseball's Best SP" Bedard ===

    Bedard takes a shutout into the 7th inning.  Fans seven Rangers and walks none.  Has a vintage Erik Bedard Randy Johnson start.

    Leaves the game tied.  Does not win the game.  Has a record of 2-1, 2.37 after six great starts.

    That's got to be one of the TRULY frustrating things in sports -- each pitch is a separate athletic event, like a quarterback running a pass play and then throwing the ball.  A guy like Bedard goes out there and throws 100 virtually perfect pitches -- and doesn't win.   Once?  sure.  Every game?  Huh.

    So far, Erikkkkkkk has lost one game 2-0 on a bloop, had to win another 1-0, left deep in this one 1-1 and watched them lose, and of course he knows if anybody happens to get 3 runs on him, he has no chance... :- )


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  • POTD: Rob Johnson and Dan Wilson

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    dw150dw150=== Rob Johnson's Tag Play ===

    My wife said that the '09 Mariners remind her of the 1995 Mariners, after Griffey got hurt, and they made their run.  Every night it was somebody different who was putting the smiles on everybody's faces, and every night it was a scrub.  Alex Diaz or Shooter McGavin or Danny Meyer or somebody would come up with a 1-in-20 play, and the M's would win despite being out-hit on the night...

    ............

    Permit me to wax ecstatic for a moment on Rob Johnson's circus-play tag. 

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  • Joh Mama, Blue

    1 Comment

    LouLou

    Paul Emmel's call on Kenji Johjima in the 9th, that was weird on a lot of levels.  For one thing, it was an easy call.  For another, it went against the home team in a tight game (as the replays went up on the monitors, Emmel suffered booing for the rest of the inning).  For another, it showed a total lack of respect for a team that is leading its division.  For another thing, it was the kind of play on which the benefit of the doubt goes to the batter (nice try, SS, but it was just too deep in the hole, and you kinda hesitated too).  For another thing, it was an easy call...

    The first couple weeks, I just figured the umps hadn't adjusted to the fact that the M's aren't wussies any more.  But the umping is getting more and more biased against the M's as we go along.

    ........................


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