April 2009

  • Felix' 1-0 Shutout

    By jemanji on 4/25/09 6:25pm
    1 Comment

    At Lookout Landing, Jeff Sullivan counted 15 strikes that Felix threw, that he got ripped off on by the home plate ump.  Meanwhile, James Shields suffered 0, according to LL. How many bad calls does it take to FIX a sporting event?  Usually only three or four, as the 2005 Seahawks found out.  When a couple of terrific, evenly-matched champions are slugging it out, a win or a loss is often a matter of luck on ONE play -- a double kicks up chalk or lands a foot foul, and that's the ballgame. Chuck Knox, after 900 years of coaching football, decided that a close football game is decided by five plays.  You had to get four of the pivot plays to control the game. In baseball, the ref'ing doesn't have as much impact, not on any one call.  But those who have competed against tough opponents will see that the point remains in powerful effect ... you're in a tight game in the 5th, and there are two on and two out, and the count is 2-2 to Manny, and you snap off a curve ball to strike him out ....

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  • Erik Bedard the best pitcher in baseball?

    By jemanji on 4/24/09 3:59pm
    7 Comments

    Sandy-Raleigh, the flagship analyst at Mariner Central:

    Doc: “I’m not sure Erik Bedard isn’t the best pitcher in baseball”

    Sandy: “I am. He is.”

    At this point, I think “if healthy”, Bedard is better than Santana. The combination of stuff and knowing how to use it puts him ahead of any other hurler in the game today, IMHO.

    I also think that he adjusts his game to get the most out of his talent based on the spate of variables around him - primarily, how good is his defense. With a good defense, he gets more aggressive, which RAISES his K-rate, lowers his walk rate, but costs him a couple of extra dingers. With a bad defense, he nibbles a bit more, lowering his K-rate, raising his walk rate, but saving some HRs.

    I also think the ‘fragile’ tag is reasonable.

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  • Stats Look Backwards

    By jemanji on 4/24/09 3:51pm
    2 Comments

    === Extend Jarrod Washburn ?! ===

    Matty floats the question of whether the M's should ....

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  • By the Numbers

    By jemanji on 4/24/09 3:59am
    9 Comments

    3.01 - What is the 2009 Mariners' teamwide ERA

    3.12 - What is Roger Clemens' career ERA

    3.08 - What is Johann Santana's career ERA

    3.27 - What is Randy Johnson's career ERA

    3.52 - What is Roy Halladay's career ERA

    3.78 - What is Josh Beckett's career ERA

    ...............

    4.73 - What was the Seattle Mariners' ERA last year

    4.00 - What was the LA Angels' ERA last year

    ..............

    19% - What percentage of their games are the Mariners winning by 1-0 or 2-0 scores

    67 - How many strikeouts does the M's 'Big Three' have

    16 - How many walks has the M's 'Big Three' allowed

    2 - How many home runs has the M's 'Big Three allowed (in 10 starts)

    ..............

    10.7 - How many strikeouts per game is Erik Bedard getting

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  • By The Numbers, Bottom Half of the Inning

    By jemanji on 4/24/09 1:43am
    6 Comments

    101 - Games the 2009 Seattle Mariners would win at their present pace

    87 - How many games would Dr.

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  • 5 Homers? Really?

    By jemanji on 4/23/09 2:28am
    2 Comments

    === Had You Noticed ===

    The M’s have hit 12 home runs, and their opponents only 5 !

    ……………..

    I wouldn’t be surprised if this were the only time in 30-odd years that the M’s pitchers had given up only 5 homers in their first 15 games.  That is an extremely low number.   That’s 560+ batters faced and only 5 homers?!

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  • Postgame April 22

    By jemanji on 4/23/09 2:05am
    3 Comments

    Trying to focus on the positive ... :- )

    .

    === Jakubauskas ===

    Didn't see the whole game, but the AB's I did see, Jaka wasn't hitting his spots.  Which underlines San-man's caution that you might want to judge new pitchers after seeing both their best and worst games :- )

    That said, Jaka did not give up an HR; the M's defense converted 7 outs out of what, 18 balls in play, for about a 40% DER ... Dr. D is not rattled by Jaka's getting knocked out of a game in which the balls missed fielders, even if several of them were hit hard by talented Rays batters...

    Onward and upward; looking forward to Jaka's next start to see if he recovers the plus-plus command ...

    .

    === M's Defense ===

    Equal Time Dept:  Dr.

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  • Taro on Franklin Gutierrez

    By jemanji on 4/22/09 3:18pm
    5 Comments

    Roto-monsta Taro argues against Dr. D's wish for Chavez to get some PT in center field.  The logic being that Franklin Gutierrez is good and Endy Chavez isn't.

    We're posting his analysis here, with kibitzing, NOT for the purpose of correcting or debating.  :- ) It's promotoed to front-page because the analysis is worth emphasizing.  My own noodlings are in there just roundtable-style.

    Thanks amigo.

    Taro sez:

    I don’t think Endy Chavez’ streak is going to continue (a guy who I think should be in an OF rotation) and I don’t think hes as good of a fielder or a hitter as Gutierrez.

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  • San-Man on Endy Chavez

    By jemanji on 4/22/09 2:19pm
    6 Comments

    Meanwhile, Sandy vectors Taro's interesting analysis with an argument that maybe Chavez will continue to hit:

    Nice numbers, Taro...

    The thing that I’m wondering about with Endy is this … could he actually be the second coming of Raul Ibanez. Ibanez was, in fact, a #4 OF until age 30. He didn’t break .800 until age 29. (No, I don’t mean this LITERALLY - but in the sense that Ibanez was a guy whose stats said he wasn’t worth giving PT to — only to become an All-Star in his 30s).

    Ibanez
    AGE - AB - OPS
    26 — 98 - .699
    27 — 227 - .734
    28 — 140 - .630
    29 — 279 - .847
    30 — 497 - .883
    31 — 608 - .799
    32 — 481 - .825

    Endy Chavez
    AGE - AB - OPS
    24 — 125 - .785
    25 — 483 - .648
    26 — 502 - .688
    27 — 116 - .562
    28 — 353 - .779
    29 — 150 - .705
    30 — 270 - .638
    31 — 54 — .878

    Endy got two full years at age 25/26, and couldn’t cut it. No argument there. He’s NEVER had the power potential that Ibanez had, (and still doesn’t).

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  • Chavez in CF

    By jemanji on 4/22/09 3:19am
    10 Comments

    BTW, with Endy Chavez swinging the bat so well by his standards ... I DO like Endy in CENTER field.

    If and when Franklin Gutierrez finds his level as a lousy hitter, at least for 2009, a Chavez/Gutierrez jobshare would IMHO be a worthy tactic for chasing the pennant.

    You could have Chavez and F-Goot split the 600 PA's in center, and then give them another 200 in the corners at times, and they'd have 800 PA's between them.

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  • POTD Jaka-lope

    By jemanji on 4/16/09 4:13pm
    2 Comments

    The Jackalope, of course, being the mythical creature that comes unexpectedly boundin' out of the indy wilderness in our hour of despair, and informs us we have no need to feel so blue about our rotation problemos.

    D-O-V noodlings on Jaka thus far ...

    March 20 - Yank RRS Right Now

    March 31 - Jakubauskas Theory and Practice

    March 31 - Jakubauskas 30-30-30 Template

    April 04 - FRAME-BY-FRAME ON JAKUBAUSKAS (at D-O-V)

    April 04 - Jakubauskas and Kelley

    April 09 - Lowe and Jakubauskas in Minny ...



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  • Dr. D Gets Washburned

    By jemanji on 4/16/09 6:34am
    9 Comments

    I/O:  Jarrod Washburn performs like Jamie Moyer for two games.

    Crunch: It's a Bill James principle, from way back in the 1980's, that certain types of veteran starters look absolutely terrible on 100-loss teams, but look quite good on 100-win teams.  Bill noticed, by simply watching baseball, that Jarrod Washburn types get blamed way too much for terrible seasons and get credited too much for pennant seasons.

    It's a Zen insight into baseball history.  And it suddenly dawns that we might be seeing it in Washburn's case.

    You might object, reasonably, that ALL pitchers are subject to this, but they are not.  Erik Bedard was known as an ace no matter how bad the Orioles were.  Horacio Ramirez is going to be thought of poorly, however his team does.  No, there are certain kinds of "tough", competitive low-BB, low-K, smart veteran pitchers who get overrated and underrat

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  • Take That, Dr. D

    By jemanji on 4/16/09 6:18am
    5 Comments

    I/O:  On the day that D-O-V laments the 74 OPS+, Griffey bombs the M's into the lead and Ichiro's grand slam collects 10 team bases in one swing.

    Crunch: :- ) Am only too glad to see a game in which the M's ram my shtick back down my throat, and here's hopin' they do it about 153 more times...

    Even sweeter to see Jered fold under the pressure and fumble the ball that opened the floodgates.  Console yourself with another doob, pokey.

    If, with Ichiro, the M's claw and scratch their way to a teamwide 100 OPS+, they can challenge... perhaps now that the three-backup-OF's plan is history, they'll do precisely that...

    As mentioned above, what the M's braintrust needs to do is keep a very keen eye on that offense.  If it drops below league-average, as Dr.

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  • PTI on Dr's Diagnosis

    By jemanji on 4/15/09 8:45pm
    3 Comments

    Roto-monsta Taro sez,

    The nice thing with Gross is that hes not liable to cost much either and hes off to a slow start thankfully.

    Asides from the OF vs GB RH pitching, we pretty don’t have anywhere else to plug a bat.

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  • 6 Wins, 2 Losses - the Good, the Bad, the Ugly

    By jemanji on 4/15/09 3:33pm
    16 Comments

    === The Good ===

    So THAT's what it looks like, to see a ballclub go out and challenge the division champs.  Buy that manager a sody pop.

    It was complete joy, from start to finish, to watch the April 14 Mariners throw pitch after pitch with the intention of beating the LA Angels.  The Seattle Mariners haven't challenged their opponents like that, for at least five years.

    Up and down the roster, the Mariners are outmanned vs the Angels.  Roy Corcoran is not Scot Shields; Russ Branyan is not Vlad Guerrero (who still runs a 130 OPS+); hey, Kenji Johjima is not Mike Napoli (minor league hotshot with career 123 OPS+), for that matter.

    But the Mariners had the upper hand in body language and attitude, they played every pitch like they intended to show the Angels who was boss, and it was sweet to watch.  When Scot Shield

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  • Postgame April 9

    By jemanji on 4/9/09 4:49pm
    9 Comments

    === Jarrod Washburn ===

    Nice game of pitch-and-catch with Gutierrez today.  :- )   Fun to watch.

    A life sensei once enlightened us:  the way that people get others to take extreme positions -- is to take an extreme position at the opposite side.  In other words, if you want to get people saying that there is no such thing as global warming, then start preaching straight-faced that we have five years to live.  LOL.

    In my good-natured opinion, the "Backup CF Chavez over HOF'er Abreu" mantras on defense have become kinda silly this offseason.  But!  D-O-V doesn't react by saying defense does not matter at all, and it also doesn't react by saying that defense can't have a large impact on the game.

    Today's game was defense at its very best:  0 errors, 3 brilliant plays (Gutierrez-Chavez-Betancourt DP), another 4-5 nice plays, synchronized precisely on the day in which Jarrod Washburn was throwing fungoes to the fielders.  A rare sports game that was drawn up on the chalkboard in the pre-game, and executed as though the other team was an afterthough.

    Great day for the local fangraphs enthusiasts.  :golfclap:

    ..................

    W

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  • Post-Series Surprises on the Mound

    By jemanji on 4/9/09 3:56pm
    2 Comments

    === The Lowe Down ===

    Does somebody wanna explain to me how this guy struck out 3 men in 12 preseason innings?  I mean, HOW?

    First two pitches from Mark, we couldn't believe our eyes.  Sat up in our chairs, and then it got more filthy from there.

    Lowe, when he came up, rained bloody death on the league with a whippy-armed 97 mph, backed by a -12 mph slider that came out of his hand looking just like a fastball.  One swing and miss after another.

    Lowe, when he came into the game Wednesday, rained bloody death on the Twins with a whippy-armed 96 mph, backed by a -12 mph slider that came out of his hand looking just like a fastball.  One swing and miss after another.

    Here are the pitches from Wednesday:

    JASON KUBEL, LH

    Swing and miss - SL

    Flyout - FB 95

    JOE CREDE, RH

    Swing and miss SL

    Swing and miss SL

    Ball - FB 96

    Swing and miss SL

    CARLOS GOMEZ, RH

    Swing and miss - SL

    Ball - FB 96

    Swing and miss - SL

    Swing and miss - SL

    That, my friends, is the Mark Lowe that first came into the league.  He had a foot more back then, and a third pitch, but

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  • The Yips

    By jemanji on 4/8/09 2:15am
    16 Comments

    We were watching the Mavericks blow out the Suns this week, and Mark Jackson complained that he didn't like what he was seeing from the Suns' body language.  They weren't frustrated, they weren't arguing with the refs, they weren't shoving the Mavericks in the paint, stuff like that.  They were accepting the situation.

    The Mariners' body language, the first two games, has been that of winners.  Late in the game today, Jose Lopez ran down a high pop on the RF foul line, calling Wlad off, sort of ....

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  • Junior Suckered Me

    By jemanji on 4/7/09 4:57pm
    10 Comments

    Take out your #2 pencil, kiddies.  Ken Griffey's home run on Opening Day was:

    1.  Against one of the AL's nastiest, highest-K lefthanders

    2.  With two strikes on him

    3.  On Liriano's best pitch, a slider

    4.  At least 50 feet over the fence on level ground

    5.  Something on which the odds-against were at least 100:1

    6.  Something Griffey does every Opening Day

    7.  An MLB record for most Opening Day homers (all with Seattle, none with Cincy)

    8.  Something that shouldn't have occurred (you should never start Griffey in RF or vs a LHP)

    9.  One of the three most important moments in the game (F-Gut's HR, Felix' DP next inning)

    10.  All of the above

    11.  None of the above

    12.  All of the above except #8

    Reggie "Mr.

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  • To the Fallout Shelters?

    By jemanji on 4/7/09 4:38pm
    4 Comments

    First inning, two strikes on Cuddyer, Felix comes in with a slider .... that breaks SIDEWAYS?   It was strike three, sure, but on whom?  On Cuddyer?  On the inning?  Strike three on the American League?

    In my day, we called it a slider if it broke 10-2 or 9-3; nowadays you're more likely to see something with a vertical drop called a slider.  On this pitch, Felix threw an 80's-style SLIDER.  The camera angle was weird yesterday, higher than usual, and I couldn't quite be sure.  Was that a David Cone slider he threw right there, John?   Rewind, slo-mo...

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  • Aumont too, huh. Must be nice

    By jemanji on 4/6/09 3:45am
    21 Comments

    So we've got the #2 overall this year, and we should be able to get the dominating LOOGY to go with Aumont and Morrow, right?  That's either Tyler Matzek, Mike Minor, or Matthew Purke -- three hard-throwing lefty starters who would just blitz lefties if you put them in one-inning scenarios.

    If the decisions on Morrow and Aumont are sound, so would be that decision.  Illustrate the absurd BY the absurd.

    ...................

    Seriously, that's a #5 overall and a #8 overall, spent on 60 innings a year -- 60 innings that could be handled by dozens or hundreds of AAA pitchers.  Relieving is simply easier than starting:  you could go get a 4k / 4bb groundballer to do that, if you wanted to be efficient with talent deployment.  Oh, wait...

    Anyway, if a 5 and an 8 to the pen, why not the 2.  I'm talking REAL fast-track to an elite bullpen.  If you had the #1 overall you could do the promotion to the ML pen maybe the same month, but with the #2 you ought to be able to do it the same year, anyway.

    I'm liking the sounds of a Morrow - Aumont - Fields - Matzek (this year's HS Kershaw type) bullpen.  Four first-rounders, three of them top-10

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  • Guest Shot

    By jemanji on 4/6/09 3:30am
    3 Comments

    As y'know, I love the hardcore New Yawkah's sheer FEEL for the game.  No baloney, just get to it.  I could sit and talk baseball all day, with anybody who had a faded Yanks or Mets cap on.

    One difference is that they've just seen more winners, and seen different kinds of winners.  They're usually watching teams bounce back and forth between 80 and 100 wins, and doing it in lots of ways, and they get a feel for what wins and what is a mirage.

    But another difference is that they're just, well, about the sports.  It's real or it isn't.  Gotta love it :- )

    NYM leads the bronx cheers:

    ........................

    If he had just come out and said “Aumont to the pen cause we feel he can’t handle a starter’s workload” then I kick my dog, smash a couple plates for a minute and get over it. However the reasoning used by our “beloved” GM is just mind-boggling.. It’s just make believe.

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  • PTI on SP-RP Conversions

    By jemanji on 4/6/09 2:33am
    2 Comments

    === EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DEPT. ===

    Why do major league GM's give $100M contracts to starters generating 4.0 WPAs, but only $10M contracts to setup relievers generating similar 4.0 WPAs?

    I suggest skipping the article below, and simply going off and spending a day thinking about the question above.  It will be one of your most edifying baseball meditations.  ;- )

    Do you suspect that GM's spend more $ per WPA in the rotation ... because all GM's are stupider than you?  If so, you are definitely on the wrong website.  :- )   Close the door quietly on your way out.

    Is it because we just hit one of the 800 out of 1,000 lightbulbs that are dark for us?

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  • Filling Your Yahtzee Slots - Sixes First, Amigos

    By jemanji on 4/6/09 2:04am
    5 Comments

    If you're playing Yahtzee and score 6-6-6-6-3 on the first turn, the right play is to enter 24 into the sixes.  It's not to enter 27 into Chance.   The reason:  AGILITY.

    If you're building a baseball roster and you get a #8 overall pick, you don't enter it into the setup-man column.  (One of) the reasons:  AGILITY.

    .......................

    I admire a "fresh perspective, different angle" that tries to make a case that a star setup man with 70 innings is as valuable to the ballclub as a star pitcher who goes 17-9, 3.75.   I'm not trying to prevent the case from being made.

    But if we lose sight of the fact that Earl Weaver jammed his good pitchers into the rotation, and didn't much care who he had relieving, it could be that we're getting lost in the math-club portable again.

    There are MANY reasons that WPA comparisons could get us wrapped around the axle here:

    .......................

    1.  The DELTA, the difference, between Joaquim Soria's 4.08 W

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  • Jaka and Kelley

    By jemanji on 4/4/09 4:11am
    2 Comments

    These being the two current relievers I have any interest in, other than Morrow.

    Qualifier:  I think Batista could close games okay, because he throws strikes in relief, and it's hard to give up 2 runs in only 3 outs if you don't get nervous, and don't walk anybody.  Just let them hit the ball into outs.   He would be fine spelling Morrow, prob'ly.   Odd to say, I wouldn't want him doing anything other than pitching easy, single, ninth innings with nobody on.

    ......................

    Checked out 'Deck Me's daily news roundup?  Great first read of the day.  Sort of a local version of what the big moneymaking national baseball rumor blogs do:  they surf the net, summarize what they find, maybe throw in an opinion.

    Point is, deckme's column is substantial ...

    .....................

    deckme sez:

    This bullpen is all right. The Times decides to take a close look at how the bullpen could be constructed - without any lefties.

    ...

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  • A Pen Full of Toros

    By jemanji on 4/2/09 5:14pm
    Add Comment

    Matty sez,

    You seem to be quite down on this bullpen, Doc.

    With Morrow in it…I don’t think the pen is that bad.

    Morrow, Kelley (who will probably make the team), Lowe, and Jak are pretty solid for their roles, and I think Aardsma is at least marginally useful as a middle man. When Fields gets called up, that makes six good arms.

    The Bakery just served up a smokin' article about the fact that you NEVER see a clubhouse transformation like the one the Mariners have installed -- and they've done it between games.  The Sept.

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  • RRS Better Use That Hook

    By jemanji on 4/2/09 2:21am
    3 Comments

    Quick puzzle.  Had you noticed that Rowland-Smith got positively smeared by lefty hitters last season?  Can you explain that?  Give it a look, and after you've come up with your own idea, check the solution to today's Jumble, below the signoff :- )

    He ran a 70 OPS+ against righty hitters, but a 150 OPS+ (!!) vs lefties.  Sometimes this is the case for LHP's if they throw the deadfish change, because the change drops down into a lefty's wheelhouse.  But Rowland-Smith doesn't work that sector of the zone, and he's got a nice hook as his second pitch.

    In fact, I'd never NOTICED that lefties were hitting RRS -- but here you go:  RH were .228/.291/.366 vs RRS, which is about what you'd get from your backup center fielder (or from your starting corner outfielders these days, I guess).   Lefties raked him to the tune of .310/.390/.480, which would be a Bobby Abreu line from the glory days.

    .

    === Givin' 'Em the Hook ===

    Skipped the WBC.  The consequences of that decision: 

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  • POTD Chris Jakubauskas, the 30-30-30 Template

    By jemanji on 4/1/09 12:08am
    5 Comments

    You knew it was coming :- )

    And, you can infer from my timing (POTD long after everybody and his brother has already written up Jaka) that this isn't my type of pitcher.  Hey, until Tuesday, the guy was running a lousy K/BB this March, even.  I'm hardly biased in favor of the guy.

    Full disclosure dept:  It isn't often that I read the Seattle cyber-sphere in order to broaden my mind on a player.  By "not often" we mean, this was the first time.  Would much rather consult Shandler, scout.com, minorleaguesplits.com and my local aiki shaman.  Top it off with anything from James, preferably pre-1988, and you have "Shtick."  Keeps it fresher that way.

    But in this case, we hadn't seen Jaka at Tacoma, and the guy is out of an indy league just a little while ago, so a little consensus fact-finding wouldn't hurt me none...

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