April 2009

  • Felix' 1-0 Shutout

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    At Lookout Landing, Jeff Sullivan counted 15 strikes that Felix threw, that he got ripped off on by the home plate ump.  Meanwhile, James Shields suffered 0, according to LL. How many bad calls does it take to FIX a sporting event?  Usually only three or four, as the 2005 Seahawks found out.  When a couple of terrific, evenly-matched champions are slugging it out, a win or a loss is often a matter of luck on ONE play -- a double kicks up chalk or lands a foot foul, and that's the ballgame. Chuck Knox, after 900 years of coaching football, decided that a close football game is decided by five plays.  You had to get four of the pivot plays to control the game. In baseball, the ref'ing doesn't have as much impact, not on any one call.  But those who have competed against tough opponents will see that the point remains in powerful effect ... you're in a tight game in the 5th, and there are two on and two out, and the count is 2-2 to Manny, and you snap off a curve ball to strike him out .... Read more

  • Erik Bedard the best pitcher in baseball?

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    Sandy-Raleigh, the flagship analyst at Mariner Central:

    Doc: “I’m not sure Erik Bedard isn’t the best pitcher in baseball”

    Sandy: “I am. He is.”

    At this point, I think “if healthy”, Bedard is better than Santana. The combination of stuff and knowing how to use it puts him ahead of any other hurler in the game today, IMHO.

    I also think that he adjusts his game to get the most out of his talent based on the spate of variables around him - primarily, how good is his defense. With a good defense, he gets more aggressive, which RAISES his K-rate, lowers his walk rate, but costs him a couple of extra dingers. With a bad defense, he nibbles a bit more, lowering his K-rate, raising his walk rate, but saving some HRs.

    I also think the ‘fragile’ tag is reasonable. Read more

  • Stats Look Backwards

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    === Extend Jarrod Washburn ?! ===

    Matty floats the question of whether the M's should .... Read more

  • By the Numbers

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    3.01 - What is the 2009 Mariners' teamwide ERA

    3.12 - What is Roger Clemens' career ERA

    3.08 - What is Johann Santana's career ERA

    3.27 - What is Randy Johnson's career ERA

    3.52 - What is Roy Halladay's career ERA

    3.78 - What is Josh Beckett's career ERA

    ...............

    4.73 - What was the Seattle Mariners' ERA last year

    4.00 - What was the LA Angels' ERA last year

    ..............

    19% - What percentage of their games are the Mariners winning by 1-0 or 2-0 scores

    67 - How many strikeouts does the M's 'Big Three' have

    16 - How many walks has the M's 'Big Three' allowed

    2 - How many home runs has the M's 'Big Three allowed (in 10 starts)

    ..............

    10.7 - How many strikeouts per game is Erik Bedard getting Read more

  • By The Numbers, Bottom Half of the Inning

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    101 - Games the 2009 Seattle Mariners would win at their present pace

    87 - How many games would Dr. Read more

  • 5 Homers? Really?

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    === Had You Noticed ===

    The M’s have hit 12 home runs, and their opponents only 5 !

    ……………..

    I wouldn’t be surprised if this were the only time in 30-odd years that the M’s pitchers had given up only 5 homers in their first 15 games.  That is an extremely low number.   That’s 560+ batters faced and only 5 homers?! Read more

  • Postgame April 22

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    Trying to focus on the positive ... :- )

    .

    === Jakubauskas ===

    Didn't see the whole game, but the AB's I did see, Jaka wasn't hitting his spots.  Which underlines San-man's caution that you might want to judge new pitchers after seeing both their best and worst games :- )

    That said, Jaka did not give up an HR; the M's defense converted 7 outs out of what, 18 balls in play, for about a 40% DER ... Dr. D is not rattled by Jaka's getting knocked out of a game in which the balls missed fielders, even if several of them were hit hard by talented Rays batters...

    Onward and upward; looking forward to Jaka's next start to see if he recovers the plus-plus command ...

    .

    === M's Defense ===

    Equal Time Dept:  Dr. Read more

  • Taro on Franklin Gutierrez

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    Roto-monsta Taro argues against Dr. D's wish for Chavez to get some PT in center field.  The logic being that Franklin Gutierrez is good and Endy Chavez isn't.

    We're posting his analysis here, with kibitzing, NOT for the purpose of correcting or debating.  :- ) It's promotoed to front-page because the analysis is worth emphasizing.  My own noodlings are in there just roundtable-style.

    Thanks amigo.

    Taro sez:

    I don’t think Endy Chavez’ streak is going to continue (a guy who I think should be in an OF rotation) and I don’t think hes as good of a fielder or a hitter as Gutierrez. Read more

  • San-Man on Endy Chavez

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    Meanwhile, Sandy vectors Taro's interesting analysis with an argument that maybe Chavez will continue to hit:

    Nice numbers, Taro...

    The thing that I’m wondering about with Endy is this … could he actually be the second coming of Raul Ibanez. Ibanez was, in fact, a #4 OF until age 30. He didn’t break .800 until age 29. (No, I don’t mean this LITERALLY - but in the sense that Ibanez was a guy whose stats said he wasn’t worth giving PT to — only to become an All-Star in his 30s).

    Ibanez
    AGE - AB - OPS
    26 — 98 - .699
    27 — 227 - .734
    28 — 140 - .630
    29 — 279 - .847
    30 — 497 - .883
    31 — 608 - .799
    32 — 481 - .825

    Endy Chavez
    AGE - AB - OPS
    24 — 125 - .785
    25 — 483 - .648
    26 — 502 - .688
    27 — 116 - .562
    28 — 353 - .779
    29 — 150 - .705
    30 — 270 - .638
    31 — 54 — .878

    Endy got two full years at age 25/26, and couldn’t cut it. No argument there. He’s NEVER had the power potential that Ibanez had, (and still doesn’t). Read more

  • Chavez in CF

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    BTW, with Endy Chavez swinging the bat so well by his standards ... I DO like Endy in CENTER field.

    If and when Franklin Gutierrez finds his level as a lousy hitter, at least for 2009, a Chavez/Gutierrez jobshare would IMHO be a worthy tactic for chasing the pennant.

    You could have Chavez and F-Goot split the 600 PA's in center, and then give them another 200 in the corners at times, and they'd have 800 PA's between them. Read more