March 2009

  • POTD Chris Jakubauskas, Theory and Practice

    By jemanji on 3/31/09 10:09pm
    2 Comments

    === Strike One, Strike Two, Strike Three Dept. ===

    If Jaka had a sloppy BB rate -- let's say he walked 3.5 or 4.0 men a game to go with the rest of his profile -- I wouldn't give him another thought.

    Similarly, if Jaka were an 89 mph pitch-mixer who wasn't a battler, if he nibbled in Gene Nelson style, I wouldn't give him another thought.

    Tangentially, if Jaka's K rate were soft -- let's say he were fanning 5+ men a game or fewer, like Roy Corcoran -- I'd fire off a "fuhgeddaboudit" POTD faster than Erik Bedard scurrying away from a microphone.

    But Jaka IS showing good precision, and very good toughness, and his K rates are nice and solid.  I haven't wandered off yet. There are any number of ways that Jaka could offend me.  I haven't seen any of them.  Roy Corcoran?  Ask me some other time.  But Jakabouskas is showing real major league potential.

    You could as easily project a Chris Bosio career for him as you could project anything else.

    .

    === Change Speed Dept.

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  • Dr. D re-thinks Russ Branyan

    By jemanji on 3/31/09 9:49pm
    2 Comments

    Two homers today.  Off a lefty.  Who's in the Indians' rotation.  One of them came down with frost on it, according to Neihaus.

    .314 / .360 / .714.

    Paying closer attention to Branyan on TV this March, I was struck by how non-TTO his swing is.  He's balanced, controlled, gets homers more by nice torque than by a Dunn-, Deer-type lumberjack swing.

    More to the point, Branyan doesn't seem to merely "stalk" tater pitches the way that Adam Dunn will do.  A guy like Dunn walks so much, more because he's simply WAITING.  For the pitch he can drive.  Branyan, by contrast, is working the strike zone like a contact hitter, and then has the ability to drive the ball from different locations and speeds.

    Jack Cust is similar to this:  Cust's swing is relatively controlled, and he's relatively less of a guess hitter than other TTO guys.

    Along with this, have been impressed by Branyan's ability to get on top of the ball and line it hard.  He does pull the ball extremely, which

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  • POTD - Gary Sheffield

    By jemanji on 3/31/09 8:59pm
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    Interesting player:  he was essentially 20 unbroken years' worth of Edgar Martinez.  With a glove.

    Yet he's strangely underrated and ignored, for a player of his magnitude.  His (legitimate) comps include Junior, Reggie, and Mickey Mantle, but who thinks of him like they do of those men?

    As usual, we've got our three cents on why that is.  :- )

    POTD Sheffield at NY Sports Insider

  • PTI on Russell Branyan

    By jemanji on 3/25/09 3:24pm
    8 Comments

    The muscled young toughs of the barrio protest that Russell Branyan maybe CAN hit lefties.  Good stuff, amigos.  :- )  Even while spray-painting my warnings about bringing RB into the LHP house, we were laughing wondering whether half the local monstas would argue that maybe he can hit lefties.

    Maybe he can.  Wouldn't that be cool, to pull a .380 OBP, 35-homer, 110-RBI star off the shelf at Branyan's salary... If Oakland can do it with Jack Cust, why not us with Russell Branyan?

    ..................

    1.  If a thoughtful analyst, let's say Don Wakamatsu or one of you amigos, believes that Branyan could do fine vs LHP given a fair chance...

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  • Bill James on Brandon Morrow

    By jemanji on 3/25/09 4:33am
    2 Comments

    Morrow took the mound in Tuesday night's TV game.  Dr. D had no objection to this.

    Casey Blake, impressively, hit an HR to center field on a 96-mph aspirin tablet.  That's major leaguers for you, especially when they're nothing but dead red ....

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  • State of the Lefty Socks

    By jemanji on 3/25/09 4:03am
    3 Comments

    === Ken Griffey Jr, Sizzlin' Lefty Sock ===

    TV game tonight showed highlights of Junior, quicker to the ball than the other night, smoking two rockets to center field.  One of them hit 20 feet up a wall that was 410 feet away, meaning that Griffey hit the ball 425 feet to center.  If you're just joining us, the bathead is moving faster as it has traveled farther through its swing arc, which is why long home runs are hit to the pull field.  Griffey once tried to teach Darren Bragg how to hit.  He said, "Get the bathead out here," holding it out in front of home plate, "not back here," he said, holding it parallel to the plate as if hitting a ball to CF.  "Back here (to LF, CF) there's no money, no production."

    I'm not sure any current Mariners are CAPABLE of hitting a ball 425 feet to center field, ever, unless you count Jeff Clement as a current Mariner.  Maybe Russell Branyan.  In any given year there are only a handful of pitched balls hit over 435 feet in game conditions -- to any field.

    In other words, Griffey's swing looked better; on the highlight reels it also looked quicker and shorter to the ball.

    .................

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  • PTI on Johjima and MLB Dogma

    By jemanji on 3/24/09 9:52pm
    12 Comments

    Spec

    Doc, FYI, from Shannon Drayer, what do you make of “he calls pitches right”?:

    [begin quote] [Felix] enjoyed throwing to Ramon Hernandez.

    “He is unbelievable. He calls pitches right. He told me you have to get ahead, and if you throw the fastball for strikes the breaking ball will be better.”

    He spoke about the importance of his fastball, both the 4 seamer and 2 seamer but when I asked which of his pitches he would least like to see if he was a hitter he said his curve or slider. No doubt after a well established fastball.

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  • Pardon the Interruption

    By jemanji on 3/22/09 3:37am
    5 Comments

    Mister MC sez:

    Did you happen to notice what type of pitch Wilson hammered that homerun on? Curveball, the great nemesis of Balentien. I am predicting a breakout year for Wilson right here and now.

    It is highly doubtful that Wilson makes the travelling 25, so what that does is make for a very, VERY powerful team down in Tacoma.

    Watching Mike Wilson play the man-among-boys role ... well, it kinda reminded me of some of those WBC games, like the Korea-Venezuela game.   Some big 1B from some league you've never heard of just steps up, grins, and pulverizes all that weak slop the major leaguers throw up there....

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  • Called Third Strikes

    By jemanji on 3/22/09 2:44am
    7 Comments

    Matty with a very intriguing opinion on J.J. Putz:

    Doc…I’ve been saying that about Gutierrez since we traded for him…that he has Cameron’s Disease…a deadly condition which prevents a hitter from swinging at close pitches with 2-strikes. That’s why his K rate is very high despite obviously having a patient approach.

    Hmmmmmmmmm....

    That is a VERY interesting suggestion.   :: taps chin ::  It would explain a lot...

    If true, personally I would think of this as "Olerud's Disease." :- )   I actually admired this about John, that in his humility he wasn't embarrassed by a called third strike.  And of course, Olerud drew close to 100 walks a year.

    So, what if you've got a 3-2 count and take a close pitch every time, vs.

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  • PTI on the Pads

    By jemanji on 3/22/09 12:19am
    4 Comments

    A little ping-pong with our D-O-V partner in crime:

    Jeff Clement is starting to worry me. I was very high on him breaking out this year before last night…but watching him take ABs was PAINFUL.

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  • Sizzlers and Fizzlers OF

    By jemanji on 3/20/09 4:06am
    19 Comments

    === Mike Wilson, Sizzlin' OF ===

    Very rare to see a guy with a true football frame, who has legit baseball-fast hands.

    Reminds of a young Sammy Sosa, though the swing (very loose and confident, short path to the ball, low hands, long followthrough, weight goes to the ball wherever it is) reminds of Andre Dawson, Dave Winfield, Vlad Guerrero.

    Freakish natural strength by the standards of baseball players; the man is legitimately powerful enough to be a "thumper" linebacker in major college football.  Yet, as mentioned, he has the snake-tongue hands that you won't find on Lofa Tatupu, and exudes a natural talent in getting to the pitch as well.

    Not developing especially *quickly,* as you know.   But there are guys (Raul Ibanez, Geronimo Berroa, Brian Jordan, Jeff Conine) who are absolutely nowhere at 27, 28, and then become impact hitters.



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  • Sizzlers and Fizzlers, Lefty Socks

    By jemanji on 3/20/09 2:15am
    4 Comments

    === Jeff Clement, Fizzlin' C ===

    Is no closer to solving his problems on the inside offspeed pitch, than he was last year.  He's over the top of every single one of them, and the pitchers (even the NL pitchers!) are just abusing him with it.

    It's a funny thing, because lefty hitters are supposed to be deadly on low-in pitches.

    What is going on is that Clement's bat is far too horizontal on these inside pitches.  Most lefty hitters, who have more fluid swings than Clement's bludgeoning motion, naturally slide the bat vertical (like a golf club) on inside pitches.  Clement doesn't naturally loop the ball in golf-club arc on those thigh-high pitches.

    A Carlos Delgado will get an inside pitch at the knees or thighs, and he will angle the bat down, pointing at the ground as he approaches the ball, and will contact the ball about 1 foot in front of his front leg (just after the apex of his downswing, so that he doesn't beat the ball into the ground).

    When a lefty hitter -- Delgado, Junior, Ichiro, whoever -- uses this vertical-bat swing and catches the ball just as the bat begins to arc up, then you can guess where the ball is goi

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  • Sizzlers and Fizzlers, IF

    By jemanji on 3/19/09 11:36pm
    2 Comments

    === Russell Branyan, Sizzling 1B ===

    Y'might not have noticed just how much of an experiment this is going to be.   Russ Branyan, for six (6) years in a row, has had fewer than 250 at-bats a season.  The man just hasn't played.

    And it's one of sabermetricians' (that includes me, now, so don't write in!) worst foibles that they assume every benchie who runs nice stats in 175 AB's can do the same thing in full-time exposure.  Remember after 2006, when David Dellucci was going to be the next value "promotion" to starting status?  The Seattle blog-o-sphere debated that one relatively even-handedly; D-O-V's warning was that a couple of years of .500 SLG's in carefully-spotted play weren't going to transition to a .500-SLG'ing regular.  Check the results.  That's what you're asking for when promotin

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  • Phillippe on Fangraphs

    By jemanji on 3/12/09 4:50am
    1 Comment

    Cool Papa sez:

    Fangraphs has a short post on his outing against the USA team (click on my name). There are some charts using the Pf/x data that illustrate how he did. My favorite is the one showing the velocity of each pitch; his fastball was consistently 95 mph (which is awesome for a sinker!) while his slider/slurve was around 80. That’s really impressive- how many pitchers have a 15 mph differential between their fastball and primary offspeed pitch? That’s an honest question.

    And Fett found this:  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/phillippe-aumont-dazzles-agains...

    In Aumont's case, the differential on the hook does indeed matter, because as we've seen, he fires it with that great Paul Abbott arm action and then it kind of parachutes back on 'em ...

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  • State of Phillippe the Impaler

    By jemanji on 3/7/09 4:34am
    5 Comments

    Jon at Bleeding Blue and Teal has a convenient video of, as well as some interesting thoughts on, Aumont throwing his patented sidearm slider that breaks 12-6.

    As you know, Aumont's front leg would send an Aiki-shihan screaming out of the dojo in his bare feet into the forest night.  Medieval warriors used to plant their halberds into the ground against charging hordes, who met less-abrupt ends than Aumont does over the pike of his front leg...

    But lemme say this about his motion now, too.  If you can get past the flop over the leg, there are all kinds of things to admire about his motion:

    ................

    1) The angle of Aumont's head, over his plant foot, is absolutely textbook.  Until he plants, Aumont actually has marvelous balance and grace for a guy his size.

    ..................

    2) I've never seen a guy Aumont's height throw with a (moderately) high front side.  :- )   Not everybody agrees, but I personally like the leading front glove.

    This goes along with the fact that he gets nice knee dip and moves his weight well.   ...Randy Johnson, at Aumont's age, was ungainly; Aumont is just an oversized ATH

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  • State o' the Junyah

    By jemanji on 3/4/09 6:54am
    4 Comments

    Q.  Can Griffey play left this year?  Is he capable?

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  • PTI on ... the 2001 M's Pitching

    By jemanji on 3/4/09 6:00am
    7 Comments

    Q.  The 2001 Mariners did not have a terrific pitching staff.

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  • Did the 2001 Pitching Stars CAUSE the Great DER?

    By jemanji on 3/4/09 5:19am
    15 Comments

    Intuitively, is it possible that the 2001 Mariners had a "below average" rotation, one that offset their sensational relieving to cause a net "average" effect?  When you just look at these guys like a kid looking at baseball cards...

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  • Roundtable on Mike Carp's Baseball IQ

    By jemanji on 3/1/09 4:12am
    8 Comments

    The San-Man at Mariner Central explains why he's had his eye on Mike Carp since he was a Met:

    Carp was high enough in the Mets organization (as judged by the mass punditry) that he was worth a gander...

    At the point I start looking, I first look at overall production -- looking at most recent AND at career numbers in the minors. Lacking ANY sense of the physical or athletic gifts in play, I rely almost solely on the stats available, (no choice). So, I don't TRY to infer ATHLETIC development.

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  • How About 9 Endy Chavezes?

    By jemanji on 3/1/09 3:42am
    7 Comments

    I know that Wak said “If the season started today … Endy would play left.” ... I also see it as an indication that the club is SERIOUS about defensive effort. A key point here is that everyone, (including Wlad, I’m sure), knows that Endy is an empty spot in the batting order. The *ONLY* reason he’d be queueing up in front of Wlad for PT is because the club is actually serious about upgrading the defense.

    Ya Sandy... let's hope that it's aimed at Wlad.

    ... they are indeed serious about DER, but how serious do you want to get?  You want to play a SS/2B at first base?  oh, wait... :- )

    Personally I'm bemused at the whole idea that you could, in theory, put nine TERRIFIC defensive players out there, all hitting for Chavez' 69 OPS+, and that you'd win.   ... as though everybody in the history of baseball missed this idea.

    .

    === REDUCTIO AD ABSURDUM Dept.

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