February 2009

  • PTI on Wlad's Career Arc

    By jemanji on 2/28/09 7:28pm
    3 Comments

    Uber-analyst San-Man sez:

    I don’t think a choice to bypass Wlad is a definitive statement of anything.

    The problem with evaluating ANY prospect is that it is a balance between paying attention to production and paying attention to what the coaches and scouts are seeing.

    Right as rain ... and IMHO, there are only two orgs in baseball who set this balance where I would.  As Bill James acidly put it,

    "Major league organizations pay entirely too much attention to what their scouts tell them, and entirely too little attention to how their players HAVE PERFORMED."

    Science tells us bumblebees can't fly, and doesn't apologize when it gets something like that wrong.  As visual scouts, tools scouts, whatever, we ROUTINELY tell people that Mark Teixeira has too many holes in his swing, that Jose Lopez is too far in front of the ball, whatever.  And our confidence is absolute, however many we get wrong :- )

    So -- would agree 110% with San-Man's framing of the problemo.  But 99 times out of 100, you're going to see Dr.

    Read more >

  • Our New Yoda ?

    By jemanji on 2/28/09 6:36am
    1 Comment

    Geoffy continues to goggle-eye over Mike Carp:

    Mike Carp (shaking Wakamatsu's hand in the photo atop the blog post) went deep for a three-run homer in the eighth, putting Seattle ahead 18-0. That Carp kid looks good. He had a homer, a double and five RBI with a run scored and is now hitting .500 for the spring ... I would not be surprised to see Carp up at some point this summer. The guy can flat-out hit.

    Read more >

  • Junior's Charisma

    By jemanji on 2/28/09 6:02am
    3 Comments

    Again some sweet stuff from the Bakery,

    [Griffey] On teammates getting along: "They're going to have to,'' he said. "We're here for one reason and that's to win ballgames. You're going to have your feuding in there. But that is not going to carry over to the field. That's just the way it is. I mean, you're just not going to like somebody and he's not going to like you. But you're going to go out there and play. And you're going to give the other seven or eight guys on that field a chance to win.

    Read more >

  • Junior and Chuck Armstrong

    By jemanji on 2/28/09 5:39am
    3 Comments

    Geoff Baker's report on Junior's press conference, as usual, just rippled the mesh from three.  The dude has a sweet stroke from the corner of the word processor elbow.  Light me up, babe.

    .............

    Junior gave Chuck Armstrong a day in the sun, slapping fives with him in Junior-trash style. Leave it to make His Lawyerliness look like some kind of front-office cool breeze.  :- )  But that's Griffey, and that's the point.  Every once a decade, you get a man who owns any room he walks into...

    "I plan on having him take me to dinner at least four or five times a week,'' Griffey said. "Being that I haven't been in the American League, I figure that there are some new restaurants he can take me to. As long as he does not dress the way he has. He may have to change his wardrobe. He can't wear skinny ties. Those went out with Duran Duran.

    "But no, I'm looking forward to this,'' he added.

    Read more >

  • Adrian Beltre's WBC Bid - Kangaroo Court In Session

    By jemanji on 2/28/09 3:03am
    1 Comment

    As you know, Dr. D spends more time on morality, ethics, and philosophy than the average bear.  Where does he come down on The Great Beltre WBC kerfuffle?

    .....................

    On the one hand, Americans have a tough time relating to how nationalistic Latin countries are, especially about sports.  It is berrrrrry, berry important to the fans, that their MLB heroes show them loyalty.  You'll see even established ML stars go home and play winter ball, and it's because of a "paises unidos" mentality that sees failure to do so as almost traitorous.

    What could we compare it to in America? ....hmmm... I don't know; it would be kind of like Ken Griffey Jr. absorbing all the adulation Seattle had to offer, for 10 or 12 years, and then leaving for the Angels, and then when asked about it, saying, "Seattle?  Who gives a rip about Seattle?  Hey, we had some laughs, let's leave it at that." 

    Or Edgar taking a job with the A's and saying weird stuff about us....

    Read more >

  • What's a #20 overall worth? Not much

    By jemanji on 2/14/09 5:56am
    3 Comments

    Ah!  Now I get it.  Josh Fields was a dumb signing because we didn't WANT him signed.  My bad.  Usually I'm not quite THAT slow on the uptake ;- ) but I whiffed on that one like ARod on an October slider.

    The reasons for this displeasure, as far as I can tell, are two:

    1.  The punk doesn't deserve anything but to be doused with lighter fluid and handed a couple of sparklers.

    2.  Now we're going to miss out on a #22 overall which could have been used to select Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester, Vlad Guerrero or somebody like that.

    ..................

    I'm not going to be able to help you with #1, but I can help you with #2 just by listing a few recent first rounds. 

    The top 10 are clipped to help y'all see straight.  You good buddies think of a #22 as being a probable #3 hitter.  I think of it as being a probable never-makes-the-majors.  Which is why I'm glad to get, instead, a guy who WILL make the majors.

     

    Read more >

  • The last thirty #20-22 picks

    By jemanji on 2/14/09 5:15am
    2 Comments

    In 2008, the players drafted in the #20-22 slots overall, were:

    [Josh Fields]

    Ryan Perry

    Reese Havens

    ..................

    In 2007, those three players were:

    Chris Withrow

    J.P. Arencibia

    Tim Alderson

    .................

    In 2006, you had:

    Chris Parmalee

    Ian Kennedy

    Colton Willems

    .....................

    In 2005, it was:

    Mark Pawelek

    Cliff Pennington

    Aaron Thompson

    Certainly, Dr. D knows that the book isn't closed on these players.  But did YOU know that, if you drafted players like this with the 2009 #22 pick, that four years later you'd still be cooling your heels, waiting for them?  Pennington was a college SS. 

    If your idea is to grab several first-rounders and get help for 2010, 2011, think again ...

    Read more >

  • PSA on the Spamfilter

    By jemanji on 2/14/09 4:48am
    Add Comment

    As most of youse know, I write on this site, and don't run it.  Please hold your applause until the speaker's finished.

    Every time I check in, there are 100, 200, whatever, posts caught in the spamfilter -- pretty impressive for a site that was just launched.  :- )  The spambots these days conjure images of the Matrix's nanobots drilling through the earth's crust to get at New Jerusalem, or whatever that city was called...

    On the first page of 25 posts, all 25 are (almost) always all spam.  But I know that somewhere in the next 200 posts are a few posts from amigos who wrote something great.  What a shame that I have no way to clear the time to fish for them.  And the spamfilter settings / widgets aren't within my province.

    As you know, Dr.

    Read more >

  • Griffey, GA, Abreu

    By jemanji on 2/10/09 7:28pm
    5 Comments

    Jeff at Lookout Landing with a witty call for all of us to hyper down a bit. 

    He apparently shares an office with the kind of amigo who will assume the fetal position when you twang a rubber band at him :- ) ... not a bad metaphor for the Mariner blog-o-sphere (including me) when it hears a rumor of a move it doesn't care for.

    LOL.

    Will cheerfully admit there are times when Dr.

    Read more >

  • Clement's Batspeed

    By jemanji on 2/10/09 7:08pm
    1 Comment

    Good patter around the 'net about Clement's batspeed, and about his getting jobbed a few times in Cheney last year.  Which is true.  Clement's eye ratio would have been 1.5, not 1.2, with major league umping.

    PCL umps really can be weird, amigos.  You remember Eric Gregg in the Braves-Yankees World Series?  Overhead camera showing the ball 18-24 inches outside, in the LH batter's box, and Gregg enthusiastically ringing guys out of there on strike three?   You'll see about one call like that per half inning, if you go to Cheney.  Sometimes two or three Greggs in a half inning.  Sometimes none.

    The funny thing is, Clement did slug .680 last year.  :- )  How badly could he have been hurt by the umps?  Well, granted, with good umping he'd probably have had 50 walks and 35 K's, rather than 45/39 (IIRC).

    ..................

    On the batspeed:  trust me on this one, kiddies.  Don't trust me on all of them.  Don't trust me on most of them.  Don't even trust me on the average call.  But do trust me on this one.

    1) Assuming that the criticism is about his launch-quickness, not his throughspeed (which leaves the ball 400 feet away and is above question) ...

    2) Any of you 'net ra

    Read more >

  • Clement's bat for 2009

    By jemanji on 2/10/09 6:21am
    2 Comments

     

    As y'know, the highest medal awarded by the D-O-V Galactic Senate is... the Point-By-Point Rhetorical Ribbon with Cluster.

    Read more >

  • Putting On the Foil

    By jemanji on 2/6/09 9:05pm
    Add Comment

    Billy Martin did not add +20 wins to every team that he took over, by importing five superstars.  He added +20 wins to every team that he took over, by changing its attitude. 

    And he did that, by installing a fear of failure.  Playing badly, under Martin, cost you and cost you dearly.  He was willing to pay the price to put his players on eggshells -- that price being that he wasn't their pal.

    It has been controversial whether sports psychology matters, or even exists.  But for a $100M payroll that loses 102 games, attitude is simply the #1 area of attention.

    ................

    Geoff Baker hot on our heels with an article that sees the connection between Arizona competition and a willingness to focus during the games.

    There is a school of thought that sees nothing in this "Spaghetti Against The Wall" approach other than math.  I couldn't disagree more.  Aardsma and Corcoran, or Feierabend

    Read more >

  • Foil II

    By jemanji on 2/6/09 8:13pm
    Add Comment

    === Rotation / Closer ===

    Morrow and Clement are (most likely) the guys who will have to do a Jim Rice and Fred Lynn, so to speak, if the 2009 M's are to surprise.  Now that Putz is gone for a #4 outfielder and change, how about Brandon Morrow disappears into the maw of the hole that we left?

    If all else fails, there's always Brandon Morrow. I get the feeling that, with this team unlikely to contend, the M's are willing to give Morrow a look as a starter. But if he doesn't show some quick progress and the bullpen starts blowing late leads, I could envision him winding back up in the bullpen. ...

    Read more >

  • We're Gettin' It Figured Out

    By jemanji on 2/6/09 6:37pm
    2 Comments

    === OF ===

    The evolution of thought on the OF has been Bizarro In The 'Burbs this winter:

    In a radio interview last month, GM Jack Zduriencik sounded like he was going to hand the starting left fielder's job to Endy Chavez.

    Read more >

  • Only a Sith Speaks In Absolutes Dept.

    By jemanji on 2/6/09 6:07am
    Add Comment

    As far as 1B goes, it was a stake through Dr. D's heart to hear Zduriencik say that

    "Whoever we sign, he's going to be able to field his position."

    Apparently this means the 'net rats / consultants (no offense meant) talked Zduriencik out of Adam Dunn's 40+16 homers and .600 normalized SLG ... because he violates the absolutes on defense.

    Only a Sith speaks in absolutes.  I will do what I must.

    ;- )

    Anyway.  What's Adam Dunn's asking price down to these days?  NOBODY is interested in seeing this guy hit like the 1997 Ken Griffey Jr at 1B and DH?  Even at 2/$24M?

    ....................

    Continuing Baker's intriguing commentary on spring training:

    FIRST BASE

    This job is wide open for anyone who wants it. Russell Branyan and Chris Shelton would be long shots with any organization, not favorites to be the starting platoon on opening day.

    Read more >

  • POTD Shin-Soo Choo

    By jemanji on 2/5/09 7:59am
    1 Comment

    Jason leaked the rumor that we might be talking about flushing Morrow or Clement for "An AL Central outfielder with solid defensive skills and one strong offensive season under his belt."  MC posters hooted, "Yeah, CHOO!"  :- )

    In 2008, Shin-Soo Choo hit .300/.400/.550 to the tune of a 146 OPS+ ... at the age of 25.

    Just for fun, below is pasted my original projection of him, back in about April of the year 2006. 

    You can google other sources to compare, but here's the exec summary:  won't hit enough for LF, can't field enough for CF, minors results don't mean anything, ML fringe.

    .

    === Dr. D's File Folder, April '06 ===

    *****

    John Sickels, in February, had Choo as a Grade C+ prospect (!!).  Either John was unaware that Choo led the Texas League in Future Davenport Translations in 2004 (ahead of Kotchman and McPherson), or he underestimated the importance of Choo's performance.

    .

    === Oh Well Whatever Nevermind, Dept.

    Read more >

  • Moneyball Draft at SF Sports Insider

    By jemanji on 2/4/09 9:00pm
    Add Comment

    We have a post up at SF Sports Insider.

    As y'know, the M's have 4-5 early picks this summer.  What can they expect?  It's an interesting debate.

    Cheers,

    Jeff

  • Playing Percentages in Baseball

    By jemanji on 2/4/09 4:36pm
    10 Comments

    One of our fave posters is uncharacteristically cranky this winter.    :- ) 

    Not that I deny having mastered at least 10 kinds of stupid.  ... but .... forgetting that SB's are not equal to HR's, and stuff like that, isn't one of them.

    It is ten kinds of stupid to use ROTO draft logic in relation to ANYTHING about real-world baseball.

    Anything? You mean like the roto draft logic that says 45 homers are better than 9? That doesn’t apply, because it’s a roto draft logic, and not "real baseball"?

    There are any number of principles that apply in greater or lesser degree. Let's keep MC and D-O-V the dogma-free zones that they've been the last few years, what say.

    Every statistic used in fantasy baseball represents actual events occuring on the green grass of MLB fields.  Math is the science of symbolism.  When we say "112 RBI" or "17 Wins" we are symbolizing a whale of a lot of actual, "real baseball" events that occurred.

    I'm talking about ten years' worth of 112 RBI vs.

    Read more >

  • Young's Defense

    By jemanji on 2/4/09 4:12pm
    2 Comments

    Quoth a local rotochamp:

    Hmmm…trying to find evidence that Young is a good outfielder and not finding it. ALL the defensive metrics hate him (plus/minus, PMR, UZR, and RZR). It limits his upside a bit as hes going to HAVE to mash to be a star.

    1.  His career range factors are above average at LF and at RF.  http://www.baseball-reference.com/y/youngde03.shtml

    In other words, although our stathead attempts to count his [outs as a % of chances he had] make him look bad ...

    Read more >

  • PTI on His Badness

    By jemanji on 2/4/09 5:03am
    3 Comments

    Ping.  If he pulls off Morrow and a salary dump for Young and then signs Bobby Abreu…I think we have a chance to win the West in 09 and we’re set up beautifully for a a healthy future.

    Pong.  Justin was also psyched about Young-Ichiro-Abreu.  For Dr. D this is in the "far too good to be true" category ... if and when the Mariners hinted about Ichiro moving over, then I'd allow myself to go beatific.  :- )  ...

    Read more >

  • Your First Six Picks, AL-Only

    By jemanji on 2/4/09 2:24am
    5 Comments

    ==== ForrrrrrNevvvvver You---uuu--nnng Dept.

    Read more >

  • Noodlings on His Badness

    By jemanji on 2/3/09 7:22am
    5 Comments



    Read more >

  • Huskies bounce back with strong victory over ASU

    By jerodlee on 2/1/09 7:38pm
    2 Comments

    For the second consecutive time this season, the Huskies bounced back from a disheartening conference loss with a big win on the road; last time, they crushed the Oregon schools after their triple-overtime thriller versus Cal; on Saturday, January 31st, they scored a much more impressive victory by beating the #14 ranked Arizona State Sun Devils, in Tempe, 84-71. After a tough road loss at Arizona two nights before, the significance of this victory cannot be overstated.

    Strong first half sets the stage

    Read more >