January 2009

From Prospect Insider:

I received a tip today from a friend of the site about a potential payroll-moving trade by Jack Zduriencik, and in following up on it, there might be something to it - or at least there may have been at some point.

What I dug up/have been told is that the M's are working on a trade that would rid themselves of either Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, or even Carlos Silva to an AL Central team.

But Brandon Morrow and either Wladimir Balentien or Jeff Clement - or both - might have to be part of the trade, at least as far as I can gather.

Returning would be a young corner outfielder with solid defensive skills and one strong offensive season under his belt, and minor league prospects - at least one pitcher.

Normally, you wouldn't criticize based on a rumor.  But does ANYbody feel that this trade would be uncharacterically illogical for the home nine?

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Sweeney was, from about 1998 to 2005, the Royals' version of Edgar Martinez.   He'd hit .320 with lots of walks, a .400-ish OBP, forty doubles and 25 homers.  He's also an awesome human being by all accounts. 

He was the quintessential Barking Spider for many years -- a small-market, underrated roto commodity who gave Mikey Jay as much production as the hyped guys drafted far ahead of him.

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Sweeney's last good year was when he was 31 -- and he's 35 now.  Could there be anything left for him?

The problem has really been his back. 

For three years in a row, Sweeney has hit for zero power, and that ain't good for a big 1B who's there to drive in runs.  He's hit 17 homers total, in a good fraction of three years, and you're talking about an extreme fly ball hitter here.  He's a flyball guy who had first warning track power, and who now has mid-outfield power.

Mike's RC/27 used to be 8.0 - 9.0 .... then it went down to a Swisher-ish 6.0 or so ... now it has been down to 4.0, 4.2.  His Power Index (PX) has gone from 120-130 to .... um ....

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Q:  Seems to me that the disconnect between you and the rest of the blog-o-sphere is NOT the valuation of Cedeno, but instead the valuation of Heilman.

A1.  Agreed.  And the trade's fine if Aaron Heilman is a bit part, thrown in on the "Franklin Gutierrez" trade.

This is definitely the way that the Mariners themselves spin it:  that they traded J.J. Putz for Franklin Gutierrez, plus a hodgepodge of interesting parts that suit Capt Jack's philosophy.  If you ask the Mariners, they'll certainly tell you that Heilman was simply not that important to them -- ergo, there's no sense caring one way or the other what they got for Heilman.

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A2.  Once again, I approve of the idea of bringing in "my kind of players" in an effort to perform a heart transplant in the clubhouse.  Though players like Endy Chavez, Chris Shelton, Ronny Cedeno, by themselves are fringe players ...

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The 12-year-old girl in pink, Hou Yifan, is a Grandmaster-level chessplayer.  She goes toe-to-toe, against scarier, tougher players, with the heart of Rocky Balboa.  She has courage, and fighting spirit, that many MLB players (much less us 'net rats) could never dream of.

So does Sanja Dedijer (below).

 

A lot of our baseball chats, including mine, go:  "If only we'd signed Teixeira.  Or Matsuzaka.  Or been born in Bangladesh where we could focus on finding a banana peel for breakfast, and not on this compost pile of a team."

Pull a chess analogy for a change:  Even this 92-lb.

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Jemanji's 2009 Power Rankings for the Seattle closer role :- )

1.  Josh Fields - best choice to close.  Spend da money
2.  Tyler Walker - could give you a Bob Wickman season or two
3.  David Aardsma - no way to tell until ST
4.  Mark Lowe - becoming worrisome; am pessimistic
5.  Roy Corcoran - should be on some ML team, just not this one
6.  Miguel Batista - in lieu of funny-but-cruel remark, we'll just say:  BPV = -40; Age = 38

1a.  Aaron Heilman - should start.  You can't teach "gifted" - and his 3rd pitch is ready now

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Jason at Prospect Insider gives you his $0.03, based on an interesting scouts'-eye view of which pitcher has the "stuff" most suited to the role.

I don't have anything against "stuff," obviously.

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From Geoff Baker's blog, Waka-san says

"We talked about several things. One is trying to really focus on teaching from the neck up, trying to play the game intelligently. Try to educate the players on their own abilities and weaknesses. Try to get them to understand how to play the game the right way. It's a cliche, but try to get more in depth in that.

"I think lot of players today are expedited to some point to big leagues, not spending as much time in the minor leagues. We want to continue to educate at the major league level. As a staff we want to invest in a player -- try to get to know a player, and understand how he thinks."

Wakamatsu talks about leadership incessantly. I approve of this. He has said that, whatever industry you're in, it's about getting people to give you their best. I believe this fervently.

Different people judge managers differently. Mike Hargrove himself would tell you that he's about making out the correct lineup card, and showing respect to the people who've earned it. Me?

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Following a trend they’ve established in recent weeks, the Huskies turned a game that was close in the first half into a comfortable victory on Thursday night; this time, the victims were the USC Trojans, by the score of 78-73.

Victory earned at the line

This was a game that was won at the free throw line, pure and simple. The starting backcourt of Justin Dentmon and Isaiah Thomas alone almost doubled the entire Trojan output from the stripe, 25-13; overall, the Huskies shot an astounding 23 more foul shots than the Trojans and put them in at an 80 percent clip, making 32 out of 40 attempts. Dentmon was especially impressive, making all 11 of his free throws as he and Thomas took the ball to the hole at will. Thomas had a tough time early, missing five of his first nine shots; but with the chance to ice the game, he came up clutch and drained this last three free throws in the waning seconds.

Brockman's shooting woes don't hurt Dawgs

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When watching the conference championship games this weekend, keep an eye out for a phenomenon that I like to call the "secret stomach punch" (thanks to ESPN Sports Guy Bill Simmons for the inspiration for the name). This phenomenon occurs when a broadcast announcer makes a seemingly innocuous reference to a performance by one of the players in the game they're announcing, but in fact it's a random punch to the gut to some unsuspecting fans watching the contest.

Vikings first to feel the blow

Case in point; this last weekend, during the Eagles-Giants game, it was revealed that Eagles kicker David Akers had made a certain number of playoff field goals in a row, one away from breaking the record set by Gary Anderson, long time kicker for the Minnesota Vikings. No big deal, right? But there's a hidden fact in that statement that caused every Vikings fan watching to want to shove a toothpick under their fingernails.

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The University of Washington men's basketball team has been on quite a roll lately. Heading into their Saturday home match-up with the Bears of UC Berkeley, the Huskies had won nine games in a row, including their first two Pac-10 conference games. They were winning with swarming defense and great rebounding, lead by senior John Brockman, second in the conference in rebounding at over 10 per game.

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Q. Is Aardsma a special talent? Is the idea that you can't teach 9K a game, so you'll go to work on it?

A. If you want guys whose pitches are hard to see, but who haven't put it together yet, there are a lot of them around. If you want a feel for it, go to THT stats, and filter by K/G unqualified.

That said, Aardsma does go through stretches in which he blows away 23 guys in 13 innings, stuff like that. Aardsma can be scary.

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Q. What are the chances that this would be 2009 in which he jells?

A. We remember a quote from Bill James on Randy Johnson, ca. 1991: "He probably will figure it out at some point. Predicting it for some particular time, such as right now, for example, is a fool's errand." Or somesuch.

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Q. So you've got an odds-against shot at a quality reliever, and he's hurt.

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Bleeding Blue & Teal predicts a long, healthy career for Felix. We once talked with Bill James about Roger Clemens and he said, "It all depends on the pitcher. I think 250 innings a year for Roger Clemens is fine."

The moral imperatives around 120 pitches and 200 innings are too dogmatic. If Felix feels good at 225-250 innings, let him go.

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BBT's post links to Driveline Mechanics, who talks about the "balance point." Pitching coaches talk about "finding a balance point" and DM takes the other side. What is aiki-doc's take?

In golf, what happens is that golfers take the club back and then, because of a slightly shrill attitude about the swing, begin the start back down too quickly -- before they have "loaded" their hips-shoulder tension. They use an IMAGINARY "pause at the top" idea to get themselves better loaded, and accelerating more smoothly.

It is also the case that a golfer should be able to pause at the top and be on balance.

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BBT notes that Johjima has an opt-out after this year. I didn't know that. I also can't imagine why he'd want to stay here and be miserable.

It would complicate trade talks, since Johjima would have to waive it for other teams to be interested. I realize that Seattle has a rancid taste in its mouth here, but starting catchers are hard to find. And teams know that 2008 was an unrepresentative train wreck, just as they know that about Nick Swisher's and Erik Bedard's 2008s.

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Also at Bleeding Blue and Teal, Scott slides hard into second base on Adam Dunn's request for 4 x $14M.

I agree that this could be the end of M's fans hopes for Dunn.

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USSM recaps the flavor of the Blengino & Co. event.

First thing that DMZ talks about, was his impression that this regime is one that encourages active debate -- one that doesn't view dissenting views as stupid, but views alternative views as simply another take on the problem. DMZ raves about the open-mindedness that not only tolerates, but actually rewards, dissension.

They want to hear ping-pong exchanges coming from different angles.

This is the way most MLB teams do business, and frankly, Bavasi doesn't get enough credit for doing it also. But the fact that Zduriencik and Blengino are so extreme about the respect-for-different-views paradigm, is wonderful.

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This is the test of a man who earnest seeks truth: he seeks to test his theories, against the strongest opposition possible. The Mariners want to get it right. They want to get it right, much more than they want to be perceived as right.

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Heh!

Geoff Baker reveals that before the 101-loss 2008 season, Chuck Armstrong directed Bill Bavasi and Mat Olkin to give an objective assessment of the Mariners' chances to make the playoffs. Olkin, obviously aware of the M's Pythagorean overperformance in 2007, nevertheless offered the analysis that the 2007 M's were capable of winning.

Geoff characterizes it as Olkin-Bavasi analysis, but you know what that means.

If you're thinking that Mat Olkin takes a back seat as an analyst to Bill James, Ron Shandler, Tom Tango, Gary Huckabay or anybody else, you're mistaken. He has been on the cutting edge of sabermetrics since, I don't know, 1985 or something. For those amigos who judge by education, Mat has a law degree from Georgetown. We've known him off-and-on since about 1995. Mat is as brainy as it gets.

Olkin of course cannot discuss his work, which when compensated by the Mariners, is proprietary to the Mariners. But Chuck leaked the information that Olkin's analysis led to their mistaken attempt to win the pennant in 2008 -- so blame Mat.

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1.

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Here again was D-O-V's April 2006 rationale on going ahead with a Jeremy Reed for Jon Lester trade.

To be fair, after Lester's cancer occurred, it certainly looked at that time like it was a deal you'd best avoided.  Since then, however, he has come back to become one of the finest SP's in the American League, never mind one of the finest cheap pitchers.

In 2008, Lester went 16-6, 3.21 (144 ERA+) -- as a lefthanded pitcher in Fenway park.  He fanned 152 men and walked only 66.  And how does a lefthand pitcher give up 14 homers in 210 innings in Fenway?

Jon Lester delivered this Warren Spahn performance for $421,000.

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The evaluation in spring 2006:

Q: Does Jon Lester have a plus curve or does he not?

A: Here's a prime example of the silly stuff that scouts throw at us.  Cyber-Seattle argued:

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One of Bill James' most fundamental teachings, beginning in the 1980's, was this:

Evaluate pitchers by what they have done over a number of years, not by what they did last year.

Our visceral reaction -- our gut feeling -- about Erik Bedard's 2008 disappointment runs so deep that it's almost impossible to be objective about how good this pitcher is. Emotions and hormones run high. Cyber-Seattle is in PMS on Erik Bedard.

Come to your senses, Padowan, and consider Steve Carlton's 1972 and 1973:

1972 - 27-10, 1.97 ERA, 182 ERA+ ..... 310/87 control, only 17 HR

1973 - 13-20, 3.90 ERA, 97 ERA+ ... 223/113 control, 29 HR

The SI cover at right, of course, was during Opening Week following Carlton's incredible 27-win season. Carlton was lousy that very next year.*

*In the sense that Bedard was 'lousy' last year.

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Here are SABRMatt's evaluations of Wins Above Replacement for 2004 Center Fielders, compared to those typically found on a site like Hardball Times':

One of my favorite Mariners sites is Jon Shields' Bleeding Blue & Teal.

Jon writes in a likeable, easy, fluid manner and puts his own signature on his view of the M's world. He draws from both sabr and visual literacy to go his own way and present a distinctive take on current Blue & Teal events. This article on Orlando Cabrera is a typically fresh read.

Jon & Rob T.'s Big Idea is that one-year contractors give the M's a net gain owing to the M's high drafting -- they give up 2nd-rounders, but gain supplemental 1st-rounders, when renting Type A free agents.

I don't know about you, but this kind of draft profiteering is a resource tactic that hadn't occurred to me. Admittedly, I'm not all that interested in MLB processes and procedures beyond the active 25-man roster. This draft-profiteering would be a routine consideration for GM's and for those very interested in their tactical considerations, but I'm pretty bored by that stuff and so appreciate BBT using one-syllable words I can understand.

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Q. Postscript: did you see that cyber-Seattle wants him?

A. LOL. I hadn't read the 'net before we wrote this, except for a couple of posts where MFan and somebody were arguing about his party personality.

I kid you not, it never. ceases. to. amaze. me. How different guys can look at the same painting and see two completely different things.

Swisher has been a 4.5 - 6.4 run a game corner player, getting it done in the TTO flavor. That's all. Take away the Moneyball aura and Swisher is one of about a zillion guys who can give you 5.5, 6.0 runs at first base.

Except here you're not bringing him in as a Branyan-type value Scrub for those 5.5, 6.0 runs at 1B; you're making him a pillar of the franchise? No sale.

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Q.  Is there a strong case to be made for Swisher?

A. Sure.  And Matty makes it:

*sigh*

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Again, in the spirit of college debate, and since the New Zduriencik/Blengino Era inspires us all to comradely disagreement ... :- )

Thusly:

Ken Griffey Jr.'s 2008 season was destroyed by a knee injury.

It's possible, of course - there's no way for us to prove anything either way - but it's worth pointing out that Griffey hit just .248/.342/.416 in April, before he got hurt, and .249/.356/.427 the rest of the way with a comparable home run rate. There's no evidence that the bad knee was responsible for his bad season aside from the agent claiming it was, and what else would an agent say? ...

The evidence is, that Griffey did in fact have a very sore back knee. He had it drained three times during the season, and then rushed to the hospital for surgery immediately after the season ended.

For more 'evidence' that an infected knee can be responsible for less-effective hitting, go to the softball cage and see how far you can hit with your back foot up on its toe.

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Q. How does Tyler Walker fit into the current bullpen?

A. Personally, I *do* think that this club could use one bona fide Fireman to bind the motley crue together out there. I'd have loved to have seen one real bullpen ace brought in -- an Arthur Rhodes, Paul Shuey type, if not a closer.

Objectively speaking, Walker is a lateral step away from what the M's already have. They had average-solid (not impact) short men; they added an average-solid (not impact) short man.

But he's Capt. Jack's man, a reliever JACK trusts, as opposed to a reliever that John McLaren trusted. The M's had average-solid short guys who had no street cred; now they have an average-solid short guy with street cred.

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Q. Can he close?

A. This is the real key to the signing, IMHO.

Sure he can close. He's done it, and evidently prefers to do it. There are a whale of a lot of guys who don't.

Pitchers do get injured, and the fact is that Tyler Walker is comfortable closing ballgames. In the real world, GM's have to look at that.

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Lonnie's 10 Questions gig is rockin' the joint at Mariner Central. Now he even gets Baker in there, and Geoffy writes a complete blog entry to each question. :- ) Vot's Next? Dr. Zoinks his ownself?

Dr. D cherry-picks a target-rich environment:

Q1. Which is worse, Carlos Silva for 4 years at $48 mil or Kenji Johjima for 3 years at $24 mil?

A. Without a doubt, it's Kenji Johjima's deal.

The logic of Geoff's reply seems to focus on, which move was more brain-dead? Which was an easier mistake to see coming? Which was dumber? .... as opposed to, Which hurt the ballclub more?

On its own terms, I'll buy the idea that Silva might have contributed, and that Johjima's peanut-butter-and-mustard blend with the pitchers was an obvious boil on the skin of the roster.

From my own paradigm of Stars & Scrubs, the Silva-Batista-Washburn outlay of $30M is, like, the worst Civics-for-comfort-zone's sake I can EVER remember in baseball.

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Q5. There will be some turnover of players over the course of the next few years, but there will remain a core who will remember the issues that they had with Ichiro. Is it in the teams best interest to move Ichiro and perhaps remove a potential thorn from their side?

I think that, within a year, most of the players who have had the biggest issues with Ichiro will be gone. [Washburn & Co. - Dr D]

I do think there will still be players who take issue with how he plays the game, unless he becomes more open to them and explains why he does the things he does. No one takes issue with his work habits. It's that some of them perceive that he doesn't play the game the right way. That he sacrifices team goals for numbers and there is a huge difference in these two things.

Also known as "Tony Gwynn disease."

Gwynn's teammates always accused him of caring about his base hits and not about the club -- "We lose and he gets three hits, he's chatting up the clubhouse.

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See this article, the first of five, for an SSI series on Griffey.  - Dr D

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Q.  Do you see the Heyman report as 'intel,' or as a reporter trying to put 2 + 2 together?

A. At Mariner Central, Crusty Juggler linked us up to Jon Heyman's report that the Mariners are one of five teams with "some level of interest" in Griffey.

I take it fairly seriously, since:

1.  Heyman expressly quotes Brian Goldberg and represents the intel as news.  You don't figure that Heyman is simply lying about this.

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Q. And Wright's battle with the Dodgers, over Mike Piazza, means ... WHAT to me?

A. Reading through the lengthy, detailed article, you're absolutely stunned by the parallels to Jeff Clement. You could virtually stick Clement's name in there, for 70% of the occurrences of Piazza's name, and it would apply word-for-word.

Wright's analysis underlines the point that there is way, WAYYY too much bias against catchers who don't look pretty behind the plate.

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Q. But you gotta have a catcher. Or else you'll have a lot of passed balls, right?

A. One light bulb that Wright turned on for me, is that it might actually be a plus, in the long run, for a catcher to not be physically gifted!

Guys like Piazza and Clement face skepticism not just in the minors, but their Entire. Careers. In many cases this keeps them working on their skills -- and often this is the type of catcher that the pitchers like to throw to.

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In early 2006, Felix decimated the Red Sox with an incredible swerving fastball that tailed away from LH hitters about a foot or so. This movement was produced by a screwball-type pitching motion in which Felix snapped his hand over the ball, leaving the thumb pointing at the ground.

The Red Sox were helpless. And we will cheerfully admit that, if Felix could throw that particular fastball, then all of these other conversations would be over. It doesn't matter if you're sitting on a 97 mph pitch that moves like a slider.

Cindy and I ran down and bought tickets in the Mezzanine, $60 apiece, to watch Felix' coronation as the best pitcher in baseball.

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=== Hope Makes a Good Breakfast, But A Poor Supper Dept. ===

Dr. D's glass is half full, and he's not pouring it over the blog-o-sphere's head.  :- )  We're pleased to see that this winter, most sites seem less willing to give up on the M's in 2009, coming off 101 losses, than they were in 2008.

My glass would be half empty if this were Pittsburgh or KC.  It ain't.  It's a city with a verrrrrrrrrry rich baseball team in residence.

There aren’t enough impact free agent bats that would even consider coming to Seattle to fix this woefully bad offense. That’s the bottom line.

Bottom line?  On a Dr. D blog?  That's about 24 column inches on, amigo…

Could be that my 'can-do' attitude gets me hosed sometimes, in roto baseball, in raising teenagers and in building weblog subscriber bases.  That's kewl.  We don't want to see Lofa leave anything out there on the field.  Why should we :- )

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=== Gumption, Dept.

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