December 2008

  • Adam Dunn's Rotten 2008 Luck

    By jemanji on 12/30/08 3:32am
    6 Comments

    Now, don't get us wrong here: Big Donkey slugged .518 with 40 homers and 122 walks, creating 7.3 runs per 27 outs. I think most of the Mariners didn't.

    But those numbers were seriously deflated by the rolls of the dice.

    .

    === Paul McCartney 'With A Little Luu-uu-uuuck' Dept. ===

    And a little luck, we can clear it up
    We can bring it in for a landing,
    With a little luck, we can turn it on
    There can be no misunderstanding

    Neo-sabermetricians are concerned, in large part, with identifying players who have been "unlucky."

    If a saberdog ever took the helm, his job would be a piece of cake, right? He would (1) acquire all the players with unlucky BABIP's, H%'s for pitchers, HR/F rates, etc etc ... (2) scoop them all cheap ... and then (3) watch them "regress to the mean" the next year to (4) grab his easy pennant. Don't we s'pose?

    Well, then, shouldn't neo-sabes be suffering epileptic seizures over the fact that in 2008, Dunn hit 16 balls >400 feet that were not HR's?

    Read more >

  • Mariners In On Dunn !?

    By jemanji on 12/30/08 3:12am
    3 Comments

    === Get 'Er Dunn, Dept. ===

    From Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors, quoting Jayson Stark:

    1:46pm: According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, the Dodgers contacted Adam Dunn's agent over the holidays to express interest. If the Dodgers sign Dunn, Manny Ramirez could be in a really bad place. Other teams showing interest in Dunn: the Cubs, Nationals, Mariners, and Orioles.

    Read more >

  • Have the M's been spending "Star" money?

    By jemanji on 12/28/08 7:56am
    9 Comments

    Q. Jarrod Washburn and Richie Sexson were paid stars money. Neither move worked out very well for the Mariners.

    This city, over the last ten years, has conditioned us to call a signing a "big contract" in circumstances that are a little different from those that New York or Boston would call big contracts. :- )

    Sexson and Beltre were more towards what I’m talking about with “Star” money, but ... Jarrod Washburn? By the time Washburn signed, a 4-year deal for $10MM per was Civic money. The Mariners chose Washburn and Silva for $10MM to $12MM apiece, as opposed to choosing a Santana type and pairing him up with a Ryan Rowland-Smith to form a $20MM All-Star / Rookie combo.

    Washburn, Silva and Batista became the epitome of choosing NOT to sign stars like Mussina, Schilling, DiceK and Sabathia.

    When I’m talking about giving Star money to a core group of 4-5 players, I’m, like, talking about guys who make the All-Star team. It’s a good rule of thumb. :- )

    .

    === Let's Isolate the Variable Dept. ===

    Richie Sexson, BTW, had two very productive seasons for the Mariners.

    Read more >

  • Grab Bag

    By jemanji on 12/27/08 10:44am
    9 Comments

    Q: Was Ichiro worth $17M in 2008, given a reasonable estimate on his defensive play?

    A. This is one of the most fun Seattle debates -- Ichiro's value. As Phred put it at Mariner Central:

    Taro: Adjust Ichiro's defensive value to a more realistic level and hes a $17+mil player even in '08.

    Phred: no it won't, and no he isn't a 17 million dollar player no matter what [baloney] stats are twisted to say

    Most fans have lives and aren't experts in sabr stats. Most of these fans have trouble believing that any players are worth $15 or $20M per year. Who can blame them?

    Ask any fan at Safeco, and most fans on the internet, if Mark Teixeira is worth $22M a year and he'll scoff.

    Read more >

  • Defensive evaluations get worse and worse all the time

    By jemanji on 12/27/08 10:11am
    6 Comments

    ... because we're placing more confidence in the metrics all the time. And that isn't justified.

    ...........

    Q. Do Fangraphs' new dollar values make us smarter or dumber?

    A. Sandy-Raleigh has an info-taining take on it at Mariner Central. We had pointed out, last week, that the new values are based in huge part on the defensive portion of the evaluations -- for example, we noted Mark Teixeira went from $16M in 2007 to $30M last year, mostly because he learned to play 1B last year. :- )

    Instantly recognizing the import, Sandy jumped into the fray with more convincing examples. Usually we edit down to just a couple sentences, but we couldn't leave any of the following Sandy-sagacity out:

    To ME, Beltre is the guy that calls the entire system into question. His RC/27 for the three years in question, along with his dollar worth:

    Year - RC -- $$$ - OPS+
    2006 - 5.1 - 17.8 - 105
    2007 - 5.2 - 10.9 - 112
    2008 - 5.2 - 18.3 - 109

    ....

    Read more >

  • Saturday Morning Single-Shot

    By jemanji on 12/26/08 12:34pm
    5 Comments

    === What If Something Happened and Randy Couldn't Pitch At That Level Any More? ===

    Famous last words, Royal Brougham ca. 1998. As high as the reward was -- the sight of one of baseball's best and most fascinating pitchers ever, blossoming and prospering right here in Seattle -- that must have been some risk with that 3-year contract. :- )

    "I still expect him to be pitching effectively in ten years" -- Bill James, outrageously, in 1995.

    As he aged from 40 to 44, Randy Johnson had FIPS (fielding-neutral ERA's) the last 5 years of:

    2.18

    3.77

    4.37

    3.08

    3.73

    We'd be happy if Morrow ran those, the next five years. Randy is doing it in his 40's. Do you know what it feels like to be 42? Most guys are done at 32.

    Amusing to note that you could literally have given Johnson a 12-year contract in 1998. "You don't think I'll hold up?

    Read more >

  • Can Griffey Make an Impact at Age 39?

    By jemanji on 12/25/08 11:01am
    11 Comments

    This is the overview, one of five articles. The sabermetric data is in the other four articles:

    Age Comps Against

    Age Comps For

    Age-38 Splits

    Value and Junior

    .............

    Q. Can I have the exec summary?

    A. You shore kan. How about in the picture at right? :- )

    .

    Q: Could he make a difference in 2009?

    A. Yes, he could.

    Read more >

  • Junior's Age Comps at 39 - the Case Against

    By jemanji on 12/25/08 9:53am
    2 Comments

    Q. How much does he have left in the tank?

    A.

    Read more >

  • Junior's Age Comps at age 39 - The Case For

    By jemanji on 12/25/08 9:01am
    2 Comments

    The following three players have been: (1) Junior's natural :- ) comps since about 1992, and (2) guys who were verrrrrrry capable of playing baseball at age 39.

    ........................

    Frank Robinson played 50 games, just over 100+ AB's, and had one of his best lines in this tiny amount of play: .237/.385/.508 with a 153 OPS+ and a 2:1 eye (in 1975). 1975 was my favorite baseball year as a boy, but I don't remember whether Robbie was hurt or what. Here is the '75 Indians team, which had the DH. Two good OF's, a great DH, and one mediocre developmental OF in front of Robbie.

    Robinson's eye ratio strongly indicates that he'd have hit very well in full-time play.

    ...............

    The Say Hey Kid hit .291/.390/.506 with a 139 OPS+ at age 39 -- in full-time play. He was 8th in the NL in offensive winning percentage, a Bill James stat.

    At 40, Willie led the entire NL in OBP at .425 and drew votes for MVP. He started in CF for the All-Star team both seasons. He was not using steroids.

    At 41, Willie was also an excellent player in part-time action.

    Read more >

  • Griffey's Splits at Age 39

    By jemanji on 12/25/08 8:12am
    2 Comments

    If you consider Aaron, Mays, Robinson, and Bonds to be Junior's "birthright" comps ... you find out, wow.  Those guys were great at 39, and real good at 40.

    But as we all know, Griff has had problemos in his 30's.  Where is he at right now?

    .

    Q.  Can he stay healthy any more?

    A.

    Read more >

  • Value and Griffey Jr

    By jemanji on 12/25/08 6:17am
    2 Comments

    Q. Have you seen the Fangraphs values? Aren't they great?

    A. They are super great. And the thing I like best, is the way you can flick-flick-flick between players back and forth.

    Have you seen Teixeira? $30.5M of performance last year, per Fangraphs. And that doesn't count bonus money for listening to the National Anthem.

    Yes, I'm kidding.

    I notice also, at a glance, that Tex wasn't worth anywhere near that in previous years.* Grist to you amigos' grill against Dr. D. :- )

    *If you accept the fielding column.

    .

    Q. How much does Griffey's defense hurt the club? I was looking at Fangraphs' new valuations on Griffey.

    A. Check the defensive adjustment columns.

    All of those -20 run figures translate to -2 wins: -$9M per year!

    What happens to those if you DH Junior in Seattle? Suddenly he's worth almost $10M more per season. Griffey has been docked a good, steady -$7m to -$11m per year for defense, for the last 5 years!

    Which is weird.

    Read more >

  • Guess Z Knows a Starter When He Sees One

    By jemanji on 12/25/08 5:19am
    Add Comment

    === Sir Paul "With A Little Luu-uuu-uuck" Dept. ===

    Jason with a great read on Brandon Morrow at Prospect Insider.

    ..................

    Q. Is it established that Morrow is a starter?

    A. The debate is legitimate, as to whether Morrow will be a star or not and throw 1800 innings the next ten years. There are two reasonable sides to the debate as to what will happen, because nobody knows for sure what will happen.

    In my view, there shouldn't be any debate as to whether to try it and see what happens.

    .

    Q. What's the case against?

    Here's one of Jason's scout-quotes, on the negative side:

    "He'll never throw that well again, not that kind of breaking ball," one scout said the night of Morrow's masterpiece against the Bronx Bombers. "He's still Matt Clement to me, with a better fastball and worse everything else."

    Heh!! :ah, man:

    1. Pessimism on Morrow is reasonable.

    2.

    Read more >

  • Josh Fields

    By jemanji on 12/25/08 2:52am
    Add Comment

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but the last I heard, the Mariners weren't budging on their "slot" $1.5M offer to Fields; Team Boras protests that they advised everyone, clearly, before the draft, that it would take $2M.

    The difference in money isn't important to the Mariners. The slotting structure IS important to ML teams, and the Mariners have always been among the biggest backers of this structure.

    If they let Fields go, they get a #22 overall as the comp pick -- which, at that point, will be losing very little, since Fields' "developmental" advantage (over a 2009 draftee) won't have been spent developing much.

    Here's one where I sympathize with the M's. However, this particular roster is in acute need of dominating relievers...

    ......................

    According to the mlb.com draft tracker -- which, after all, relays the opinions of ML scouts -- Fields is blessed with a "plus, plus curve, a true hammer that he throws in the 78-80 mph range.

    Read more >

  • Clement at C or 1B?

    By jemanji on 12/23/08 10:47am
    6 Comments

    At Lookout Landing, Graham has a fine post in which he discusses the pros and cons of moving Jeff Clement away from catcher.

    (I hope he'll take this as a compliment, by the way, but in any case my impression of this LL author is that he's one of the four or five guys on the entire baseball internet who is so smart, that he knows he is dumb.

    Read more >

  • Piece Mobility

    By jemanji on 12/23/08 9:22am
    4 Comments

    As Spectator said,

    Read more >

  • Sightseeing

    By jemanji on 12/23/08 5:42am
    1 Comment

    It’s a popular fact that 90% of the brain is not used and, like most popular facts, it is wrong.

    [No] Creator would go to the trouble of making the human head carry around several pounds of unnecessary grey goo if its only real purpose was, eg, to serve as a delicacy for certain remote tribesmen in unexplored valleys; it is used.

    One of its functions is to make the miraculous seem ordinary, and turn the unusual into the usual. Otherwise, human beings, forced with the daily wondrousness of everything, would go around wearing a stupid grin, saying “WOW” a lot.

    Part of the brain exists to stop this happening.

    Read more >

  • De Angels Be Bad

    By jemanji on 12/22/08 12:50pm
    4 Comments

    Hold up your hand if you realized this: the 2008 LA Angels won 100 games ... with a 94 OPS+.

    Or if you realized this: the 2007 Angels won 94 games ... with a 100 OPS+.

    Neither team had an ERA+ over 111, either.

    .................

    In 2005 and 2006: it was exactly the same thing: offenses of 95-99, pitching around 110-115 ... 95 and 89 wins.

    At what point do we start acknowledging that those guys down South don't need more than about three starters and a closer to own the division? At what point is it something other than luck, that they win all the time?

    Last year it was 100 wins, slap me silly, a good 40 games ahead of the Mariners, and we still don't buy in. :- )

    ........................

    Much Seattle rejoicing ensued, over the Angels' snub of Team Boras and Teixeira. By me too. After we put our VORP/$ slide rules away, it seems we all have a good feel for what a Mark Teixeira means to a pennant race, neh?

    Read more >

  • Berra - Howard Dept.

    By jemanji on 12/22/08 12:08pm
    1 Comment

    Quoth the brainy new manager to Mr. Hickey:

    "We could go without a third catcher, yes," Wakamatsu said. "But would we be comfortable in that situation? No. If we could sign a Willie Bloomquist-type (utility player) who could back up a lot of positions in an emergency, that would make it easier to carry a third catcher."

    This is a quite remarkable thinking-outside-the-box statement by D-Wak.

    Last year we were throwing crumpled paper cups around as to whether the Mariners could ever, for a single game, start Clement at DH when he was the only other catcher on the roster.

    Note well that D-Wak is talking about the possibility of going with no third catcher in the 2009 scenario in which Johjima-san and Clement are usually starting in the same game. Mull that one over for a minute. That doesn't sound crazy to a purist; it sounds simian. Do we need one of those 1x4x9 Monoliths to help D-Wak leap forward an evolutionary plateau?

    Nah, it's not crazy, just awkward.

    1.

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  • POTD Jerry Hairston Jr

    By jemanji on 12/22/08 11:11am
    4 Comments

    So Wakamatsu-san says that if Clement is DH'ing, he'd probably better have a 3rd catcher. LOL. Already I'm the guy's biggest fan...

    But to make that 3rd catcher possible, he needs a 2-in-1 utility glove. Well, OK. I missed the memo that said, if you don't suit up 12 pitchers, then the umps enter a 9-0 score. But whatever.

    ..............

    I'd have thought that Jerry Hairston Jr. would have been such a player. Hairston legitimately backs up at every position including SS and CF, in the sense that Willie backed up at all of those positions. But then something we read suggested that if Hairston's here, then he STARTS AT SECOND BASE ... "ALLOWING" LOPEZ TO PLAY FIRST?

    Looking left and right, we see amigos talking about Hairston playing a key role for a surprising 2009 renaissance. Let me go clearly on the record about this: WHAAAAAAAAAAAAT?!

    .............

    Hairston, in 2008, someHow someWay cobbled together a .384 OBP.

    Read more >

  • MLE's and Splits on Carp

    By jemanji on 12/21/08 4:25pm
    4 Comments

    Amigo noted that Carp's 2008 weren't exactly hampered by luck, either, since he had a .335 BABIP. Here is his minorleaguesplits card.

    The .335 BABIP for Carp last year certainly didn't suppress his numbers :- ) but .... for a lefty thumper who zings the ball around the lot, it might not be all that wild of a target for him, IMHO. Guys who hit the ball real hard frequently run nice BABIP's (though usually low contact rates with lots of strikeouts, too).

    .....................

    One good thing about Carp's splits is, I really like that 58/55 eye ratio against RH'ers for the year. Folks tend to worry too much that a young lefty hitter isn't yet hitting lefty pitchers. Of course he's not. Even many of the ML stars scuffled, early on, when in LH-on-LH matchups.

    Carp hit righties very well, with not only the 58/55 eye but a robust .421 OBP and near-.500 SLG against them.   This gives a glimpse at a young busher's potential.

    .

    === Moving Targets, Dept.

    Read more >

  • Tale of the Tape - Mike Carp vs Mike Saunders

    By jemanji on 12/21/08 9:02am
    5 Comments

    One of our best buds, and one of the best analysts 'round here, would like to offer the opinion that Carp's performance has been better than I think it has been.

    As you know, we don't split out this comparison in order to emphasize the "tale of the tape" between analysts. We split it out because we have a boss these days who counts articles :- ) and because this particular article is ... well, as legit as any others we tackle. For what that's worth. LOL.

    Anyway, Let's! go To! the VID! e-o TAPE! How would you compare these two bushers?

    When you state: Michael Saunders minor league performance: “has been considerably better than Carp’s”, it is not completely true. Saunders has a career .798 minor league OPS, to Carp’s .811. By STRAIGHT numbers, the comparison is:

    .274/.371/.440/.811 - Carp

    .274/.362/.436/.798 - Saunders

    Not a completely fair comparison - since Saunders career line is pulled down by a 95-AB AAA line of .708, and Carp hasn’t touched AAA yet.

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  • POTD Mike Carp - the Bad and the Ugly

    By jemanji on 12/21/08 4:43am
    8 Comments

    Q. What's the local consensus?

    A. That Carp isn't a blue-chipper, but that he does become the best 1B prospect in the system. Also that he moves the ship into the direction of LH power and higher eye ratio.

    .

    Q. Does he have upside?

    A. The idea has been floated that his ceiling is to be a Lyle Overbay-type hitter.

    That's an interesting stylistic template -- .290/.370/.460, let's say -- good gap power, some walks, no speed. If Carp panned out, you could see the template there.

    Actually, from where I sit, Lyle Overbay was always a lot more talented than Mike Carp seems to be.

    Read more >

  • POTD Mike Carp - the Good

    By jemanji on 12/21/08 3:42am
    1 Comment

    Q. Is there any good news?

    A. That Zduriencik likes him.

    I hate to be the wallflower here, but let's hope that Zoidberg likes Carp specifically, and not because Carp is left-handed. We're all interested in giving Mr. Z credit for targeting individuals, rather than vague ideas -- let's hope that Carp isn't an "idea" -- generic corner LH'er with power and some walks. Because if that's what he is, it isn't a decision that's any better than one Bavasi would make.

    It's quite possible that Zduriencik sees something in Mike Carp that he specifically likes. Carp in 2008 took a real nice leap forward, from lousy hitting stats in 2007 to a .300 AVG with .400 OBP last year. Maybe he showed something. I wouldn't doubt it.

    .

    Q. Prospect Insider has the Mariners starting Carp in AAA and maybe getting a look in Safeco in 2009 -- maybe even early in 2009.

    Read more >

  • POTD The Blogosophere

    By jemanji on 12/21/08 2:53am
    2 Comments

    Q. What is the attitude of the reincarnated jemanji towards the rest of the Mariners' blog-o-sphere?

    A. Jeff Sullivan -- about whom we've always been politely appreciative -- cowboy'ed up for this tremendous article.  In it, he encourages all of us to Rodney King it and Just All Get Along.

    Granted, Jeffy is in an altered state-of-mind, daffily euphoric like the rest of us, over the GM and manager that he sees as a lifeline-tossed-over-the-side.  :- )  But that's all to the good.  He says,

    It seems like, as we've put more distance between ourselves and last season, when it comes to points of intra-blogosphere disagreement we've been able to raise the level of dialogue and reduce the amount of snark and dismissiveness of which we were all guilty, and that can only be good for everyone.

    Amen, brother.   Point taken and seconded.

    Jeffy is the college party boy who, at the marriage of his favorite uncle Zoink, stands up teary-eyed and raps the glass for the "time for us all to grow up" speech that leaves everybody somber.  Dr.

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  • Could the end of the string of Seattle sports catastrophes finally be upon us?

    By mous on 12/20/08 7:16am
    6 Comments

    Article by Jerod Allen

    As the 2008 calendar year draws to a close, fans of Seattle sports breathe a collective sigh of relief. For those who root for Emerald City teams, this year can't end quickly enough.

    To review the last three major professional team seasons in Seattle:

    • Mariners: 61-101, .377

    • Sonics: 20-62, .244

    • Seahawks (through week 14): 3-11, .214

    So the Mariners, with their robust 38% rate of victory, have been by far the most successful franchise in Seattle in the past year. Of course, they had to spend over $100 million to reel off wins at that clip, which comes in at about $1.5 million per victory.

    Throw in the historically bad University of Washington Huskies football team, and the four teams are a collective 102 games under .500 (84-186).

    Read more >

  • Jose Lopez at 1B?

    By jemanji on 12/19/08 10:01am
    10 Comments

    Lopez dive

    Speaking of defense, D-Wak says he loves it so much he might move Lopez to 1B for good. I was intrigued by that notion when we had slick-fielding and interesting lefty bat Luis Valbuena, and didn’t have Branyan-Shelton on the roster.

    Hopefully he's trying to bluff his bosses into buying him a stick? :- )

    Here's a good article from John Hickey on D-Wak's "bluff."

    D-Wak is supposed to be pretty smart. He's got to see the problemos with putting Jose's bat at first.

    Start by understanding that Dr. D is staunchly against the idea of putting a league-average hitter at a corner position so as to go along with the local infatuation with defense. (Note that we didn't say that we are against FIXING the defense.)

    I'm not sympathetic to the idea of clear and concrete sacrifices of offense for ephemeral, possible gains in defense. But that said, here is one way that such a move could work:

    (1) If Jose Lopez is about to assume his rightful place as Miguel Tejada's batting heir.

    Read more >

  • Branyan, Dunn, and TTO Hitters

    By jemanji on 12/18/08 2:20pm
    12 Comments

    Q. What is the effect on a ballgame or a season …. if a player (or a lineup!) has a lot of K, BB, and HR?

    A. He can't be defensed. And he can't be slowed down by a pitcher's park (relative to everybody else on the field).

    Had you ever noticed that your Gold Gloves don't do you any good against Jim Thome?

    TTO players don't get lucky*, don't need luck*, don't depend on BABIP, are not affected* by the fact that they're in Safeco Field or Dodget Stadium. It's them and the pitcher and everybody else can sit down. :- )



    Read more >

  • Batspeed - and Jeff Clement

    By jemanji on 12/18/08 11:58am
    3 Comments

    Watching Clement a few times from the Cheney stands, we were perplexed at the 'net reports that Jeff Clement had woeful batspeed. We hadn't noticed, sez we, but hey, we'll check it. Never did get to Cheney after that.

    Having seen Trey, the #3 draft pick in all the land, from the CF camera, here's the Tao of Bat Spee Do :- )

    ..............

    As Bruce Lee pointed out a decade or four ago, handspeed has three components. The laws of physics, acceleration, and neurology do not warp inside 90-foot squares.

    Lee correctly pointed out that the ability to land, or block, a punch, depends on three things. Baseball watchers would do well to identify which of the three they are talking about when they refer to batspeed.

    1) Perceptive speed

    2) Reactive or Reflexive speed

    3) Throughspeed

    Perceptive speed? That's how long it takes your brain to register what is going on.

    This can be modified. A lot. Through pattern recognition and instinct.

    Read more >

  • How much of the game is defense?

    By jemanji on 12/18/08 9:13am
    14 Comments

    Huge snowball fight over the question of whether defense is 15% of a baseball game, or 20% of it ...

    Notice first of all that if it's 20%, then a player's offensive value is 2.5 times more important than his defensive value. That's before factoring in the questions of how much one defensive player varies from another, or how confident we are about our defensive measurements.

    If defense is 15% of the game, then a player's bat is 3.3 times more important than his glove. 2.5 or 3.3? Taro, Sandy, and Matt are willing to pig-pile Dr. D on this one...

    Read more >

  • Rumor Mill, Thursday

    By jemanji on 12/17/08 11:31am
    14 Comments

    COEFFICIENT OF CONFIDENCE = 0.85: as many are aware, Mark Teixeira reportedly wants to get a deal done very quickly. He wants the Orioles, but they don't want him. They have lowballed him -- yep, that's the word -- at 7 x $21M (!) and stated that they're only players if they get a hometown discount.

    With perhaps only 1 week to go before Teixeira decides, speculation has settled in at 8 x $24M. At least two teams, one of the Boston, have made firm offers to Tex that seriously outweigh Balmer's 7/$145. The Angels have also offered at least 8/$160M.

    .......

    Adam Dunn would be an AWFULLY nice consolation prize. I wonder whether he isn't actually a more helpful purchase at, say, 4 x $15M.

    There's no particular reason that Dunn should be limited to 4 years when guys like Lee and Soriano get twice that.

    Read more >

  • Adam Dunn

    By jemanji on 12/17/08 10:20am
    5 Comments

    Just stream-of-consciousness, not POTD. :- )

    .

    === "Sample Size" of One Dept. ===

    I don't know if we're going to spend the next three years using Richie Sexson as the scarecrow to keep all of those nasty FA buzzards away. But just off the top of our heads, here:

    1. Adam Dunn is lefthanded. I've heard that matters in Safeco. Jack Zduriencik seems to think that is an important factor.

    2. Richie Sexson was a fairly extreme groundball hitter. Adam Dunn is a fairly extreme flyball hitter. You're not talking about similar swings here. Dunn isn't a topspin guy.

    3. IF Adam Dunn had exactly Richie Sexson's age-arc, he'd have three (3) great seasons followed by a dropoff. Dunn is a year younger than Sexson was, when signed.

    Read more >

  • Finding the right comps for Joe Shlabotnik

    By jemanji on 12/17/08 2:28am
    8 Comments

    Doc…Delgado is NOTHING like Teixeira.

    .

    :- ) :shaking head:

    === Slow Down A Minnit, Johnny ===

    When comparing two hitters, there are any number of criteria you can use to match them:

    1 RH/LH
    2 Walk rate
    3 HR rate
    4 Phenotype
    5 AVG/OBP/SLG
    6 Speed score
    7 etc etc etc

    Which of these you believe to be most important is a matter of judgment. Your judgment can be tested; we'll talk about that in a moment.

    ................

    In comp'ing Teixeira, I'm looking first and foremost for these things:



    Read more >

  • Rumor Mill

    By jemanji on 12/16/08 12:16pm
    33 Comments

    Caveat emptor: We ain't gonna prove 'em, link 'em, or Google 'em for ya. :- ) Take it or leave it. Youse guys have known me since (as far back as) 1995 and you have a feel for how careful I am, or amn't, with info processing.

    ...............

    COEFFICIENT OF CONFIDENCE = 0.85: Bidding on Teixeira is already up to $22.5M x 8 years and will go considerably higher. AL teams who are north of $20M already (!) include LA, Boston AND New York.

    D-O-V and all iterations thereof are scoff-free zones. If you're one of those who thinks that LA, Boston and New York are idiots and you're the guy who's smart, please head three websites up I-5 and stay there. ;- )

    I'm going to assume at this point -- the jelling of the expectations in the $24-27M range -- that it's a moot point for the Mariners.

    ..............

    COEFFICIENT OF CONFIDENCE = 0.65: Inquiry on Adam Dunn is coming from the Angels, Dodgers, Nationals, and ... Mariners!

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  • Thursday Morning Tazoberry

    By jemanji on 12/16/08 8:24am
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    So, save this shtick for Thursday morning. :- ) This is Hiro Nakamura Time-Travel week.

    ..................

    Q. What do you think of the idea of signing Daniel Cabrera and using him as a closer?

    A. I think you all are going to be shocked at the contract that Daniel Cabrera commands. Are you still in the game if it's 4/$40 for Cabrera to close? Considering that he's never done it? Thought not.

    And it could go considerably higher than 4/$40.

    Cabrera has Randy Johnson-esque potential -- well, almost -- and one or two teams are likely to pay for the upside as though it had already been achieved.

    Still and all, if you could somehow parlay this idea into a situation in which both Brandon Morrow and Aaron Heilman start, then it could be worth the outlay. What would Heilman want in an extension?

    Supposing you could talk Heilman into a 3-year extension at reasonable money, and supposing you could offload Washburn in some kind of scheme, and supposing D-Cab was willing to close ...

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  • Teixeira at age 34

    By jemanji on 12/16/08 7:52am
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    Hiro Nakamura tripped on into 2014 for us to check out Mark Teixeira's level of play. As you can see, Tex (pictured right) was still celebrating the occasional base knock.

    ............

    Sez the super-dee-dooper sabr-toothed Sandy from Braves'-land, regarding the idea of signing Teixeira a year before you hope to compete:

    It's simply a bad ORDER to do things. You get a David Wright and Jose Reyes and Victor Diaz ALL showing *strong* indications of stardom at age 22/23 - then, by all means, go out and sink 6-7 years in a 28-year-old star.

    Well, in some ways. It certainly isn't the order in which the Braves do things. :- )

    It's the way you'd do things if you're wanting a re-load as opposed to re-build, though. The Mariners aren't a small-market team. This position begs the question of whether it should BE a re-build.

    .................

    Sandy kinda blew me away with this one:

    The first two years - HIGH probability of great numbers. The last 6 years (assuming 8 year contract), it gets a lot fuzzier.

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  • It TEX a village...

    By jemanji on 12/16/08 3:45am
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    ... full of cash, to land a player like this one. Kevin Ess at Mariner Central pointed out the SI.com rumor that the Mariners are in it, early on, for Teixeira.

    .............

    Sports Illustrated recently printed (in some kind of paper-magazine form of SI) the article "Tex, Inc.", which contained a number of points I hadn't paid much attention to.

    First of all, Teixeira is a good actor - for example, he amused the Angels with the fact that they could never catch him blowing a bubble or looking into the stands with his head down during the National Anthem -- nope, standing perfectly stock-still, head down, yada yada.

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